2012 NBA Draft

Prospect Profile: Fab Melo

Before announcing that he would be entering the NBA Draft, the last we heard from Syracuse center Fab Melo was when he was being deemed ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.  The Orangemen still made a decent run without him before falling to Ohio State in the Elite 8. 

Melo makes for an interesting prospect study.  His draft stock and his game would probably have benefited if he decided to return to Syracuse for his junior year.  But he did enjoy a breakout season as a sophomore that resulted in him being named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.  Further clouding things are ineligibility questions and the fact that he is from Brazil, potentially making his thought process a bit different from your average college player.

It isn't hard to figure out Melo's primary asset.  At 7-foot and 250 pounds, Melo has legitimate NBA center size.  His 7-foot-3 wingspan enables him to alter shots effectively – he averaged 2.9 blocks-per-game in his sophomore season.  Melo was a big recruit coming into Syracuse and was expected to contribute right away.  Unfortunately, he struggled to assimilate to the college game and lacked conditioning.

Melo worked to right the latter of those issues heading into his sophomore year and it showed.  He was more in shape and it helped his leaping and quickness on the defensive end both blocking shots and rebounding.  Syracuse employs their famous zone defense so projecting how Melo fits in an NBA system will be crucial to teams considering him.  Melo pulled down 5.8 rebounds-per-game this season, mostly through size alone.  He doesn't yet have the instincts to be a volume rebounder, but again, it's hard to evaluate how he will transition from the zone.  Instincts and "feel for the game" are things he has to continue to improve, but he made great strides between his freshman and sophomore seasons.

What will prevent Melo from getting anywhere near the lottery is his complete lack of an offensive game.  This is clearly the last piece of his development as a player.  He averaged 7.8 points as a sophomore and shot over 56 percent from the field, but most of points came on dunks and put backs from offensive boards.  While his size enabled him to get by offensively at the college level, Melo has no semblance of a jumpshot and inconsistent evidence of a post game. 

It's not all bad on offense for Melo though.  He has shown good hands, solid footwork and a nice touch around the rim.  These things suggest that there is at least some hope that through hard work, he can develop into enough of a threat on offense that it will justify him getting on the court.

Overall Melo projects as a late first round pick.  He is never going to be a great offensive player, but he has the tools to impact games on the defensive end.  As the saying goes, you can't teach size and Melo has it.  There will always be a place for guys who can protect the rim in the NBA.  Whoever takes him will be taking on a project that will require patience.  As we saw in the similar case of Hasheem Thabeet, that is easier said than done.

Prospect Profile: Harrison Barnes

Rare is it anymore that you see a guy who is projected as a top-10 draft pick decide to return to school.  But that was the case after last season for North Carolina's Harrison Barnes.  Barnes was a mega recruit out of high school and was going as high as number one in a lot of mock drafts throughout his freshman year.

The 6-foot-8 Barnes deserves credit for realizing his game needed further development.  It is possible that he looked at the career of fellow Tar Heel Marvin Williams as reason to go back.  Williams, while a steady contributor for the Atlanta Hawks, has yet to fulfill the expectations that come with being the second overall pick in the 2005 NBA Draft.  But now Barnes, after averaging 17.1 points-per-game as a sophomore, has declared himself eligible for this year's draft.

Barnes is still projected as a top-10 pick with the potential to crack the top five.  He is 6-foot-8 and, depending where you look, is listed at around 220 pounds.  His strengths are his length and his ability to score.  He can fill it up from just about anywhere and has good range.  His height and length enable him to get off his shot with ease.  His midrange game, now a strength, has improved a lot while at North Carolina.  Barnes is smooth and fundamentally sound on the court and just has the look of a basketball player.

He is capable of being a terrific defender.  He is solid athletically and has a 7-foot wingspan, which more than makes up for a lack of quickness on defense.  Most importantly, he has a very high basketball IQ and is generally known as a smart kid.  It isn't surprising that Barnes was self-aware enough to recognize his game needed more pre-NBA polish after his freshman season.

Barnes toes the line of being "too nice."  For someone as offensively gifted as he is, he disapears too often and defers to teammates.  While that is easy to do in a star-filled program like North Carolina, at some point he needs to show the killer instinct that is needed to dominate at the NBA level.  Originally a big man in high school, Barnes has not always played on the wing and some aspects of his game, like ball handling and passing, are still developing.

Because of this there is a fear out there that Barnes may end up being one dimensional (scoring only) on offense.  While it's not a huge knock on his draft stock, it may be enough to keep him out of the top five.  Also, Barnes is undoubtably thin for 6-foot-8, but his frame looks like it can support some extra size.  

Overall, Barnes is a stellar prospect.  He is already a very good scorer and most see him as a potential lock-down defender.  But he also has considerable room to improve, which can be seen as a good thing for lottery teams willing to be patient.  If Barnes fails to develop a more well-rounded game, his best case scenario is probably Danny Granger.  However, he will have to be a little more aggressive on offense to reach that ceiling.  There is certainly no shame in "only" becoming an All-Star like Granger, but Barnes could be more is everything comes together. 

Prospect Profile: Jared Sullinger

The story of Ohio State sophomore Jared Sullinger is one of the most intriguing as the draft approaches. He could have gone No. 1 overall if he had come out after his freshman season. The latest mock drafts have him going much farther down the line: Draft Express has him going sixth, ESPN's Chad Ford projects him as the 13th pick (Insider link), and NBADraft.net predicts he'll fall out of the lottery completely, landing at No. 15. His fate is one many players will surely cite when they decide to come out earlier than perhaps they should. You may have plenty to gain by staying in school, but there's a lot to lose, too. Last year's No. 1 pick, Kyrie Irving, signed a four-year deal that will give him between $3MM and $4MM more each season than No. 15 pick Kawhi Leonard gets.

What's caused him to slip in the eyes of NBA teams is his lack of athleticism and explosion around the rim. Still, that's been a criticism all along, as witnessed by Josh Cochran's NBADraft.net scouting report from 2009. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express cites his 6'9", 280-pound frame as a problem — he's too small to be a prototypical center, and not agile enough to cover the league's increasingly athletic power forwards. Tommy Dee of Sheridan Hoops cites his difficulty defending taller players as a weakness, yet, as Givony points out, it didn't stop Ohio State from being an elite defensive team in college basketball this year. While it's difficult to draw conclusions about a player's worth based on his team's success in college, the fact that the Buckeyes went to two Sweet 16s and a Final Four during Sullinger's time can't be a knock on him.

Givony points to his polished post game, lack of turnovers and passing ability as some of his positives, and Dee calls him "the most complete post player in the nation." Efficiency is one of his hallmarks, and he makes opposing teams pay at the foul line, knocking down 76.8% of his free throws this year, a plus for a big man. When it's not working down low offensively, he can go outside, too. He took 1.1 three pointers a game and nailed 42.1% of them. He has a midrange game, too, as Dee praises his ability to knock down looks from 15 to 18 feet.

Givony compares him to Kevin Love, and while that's not the kind of analogy being bandied about too often now as Sullinger's stock takes a nose dive, I think it still holds. It would be a challenge for Sullinger, or anyone else, to put up the kind of numbers Love does, but Love's ability to maximize his basketball skills while minimizing his lack of overpowering athleticism provides a blueprint for Sullinger to follow. Love, who was the 5th pick in 2008, would probably be drafted higher if teams had a chance to do it over again, and unless teams brighten their outlook on Sullinger between now and June, the same could be said for him in a few years. 

 

 

 

Draft Update: Moultrie

According to a tweet from Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com, Mississippi State's Arnett Moultrie has officially declared for the NBA draft. The 6'11" junior has been projected for selection from mid-lottery to late first round. 

Moultrie first made his intentions to declare public last week, but there was some talk of him entering a graduate program elsewhere and applying for a waiver to play one more year of college basketball. 

Last season he averaged 16.4 PPG and 10.5 RPG on 54.9% shooting from the floor. 

Draft Rumors: Boynton, Young, Beal

Tuesday is the last day for underclassmen who have officially entered their names in the draft to withdraw and still retain their college eligibility, and today, those who filed for reports from the Undergraduate Advisory Committee should be receiving them. Keep tabs on all the draft-related deadlines in this post, and check out today's latest news here: 

  • Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv passes along confirmation that Florida guard Kenny Boynton will return to school, and says fellow Gator Patric Young is expected to return as well.  Draft Express has Young as the 13th pick in the 2013 draft while projecting Boynton to go in the middle of the second round next year.
  • Chad Ford of ESPN.com says Florida shooting guard Bradley Beal, projected as the No. 5 pick this June by Draft Express and No. 7 by NBADraft.net, is leaning toward entering the draft (Insider only). He rounds up the pending decisions from underclassmen considering the draft and looks ahead at some of the upcoming scouting showcases.
  • Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com unveils his latest mock draft, with Anthony Davis on top, followed by Thomas RobinsonMichael Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal and Andre Drummond.

Draft Update: Melo, McAdoo, Canaan

The latest news about the 2012 NBA draft from around the web:

  • The Associated Press reports (via ESPN) that Syracuse center Fab Melo will enter the draft, as expected.
  • North Carolina forward James Michael McAdoo will return to UNC for his sophomore season, TarHeelBlue.com reports.
  • Isaiah Canaan is also returning to Murray State for his senior season, tweets Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com.
  • HoopsWorld's Yannis Koutroupis lists Iowa State forward Royce White, St. Bonaventure forward Andrew Nicholson, and Kentucky guard Marquis Teague among several other players who may have played themselves into first-round pick status over the course of the NCAA tournament.

Draft Updates: Cheek, Burke, Sullinger

We've already heard today that Jared Sullinger has decided to leave Ohio State early and officially enter this year's NBA draft. We'll track the rest of today's draft-related updates here:

  • Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com hears that Villanova junior Dominic Cheek will likely declare for the draft (Twitter link). Cheek's draft prospects don't seem great — he comes in at 208th among ESPN.com's prospect rankings.
  • Freshman point guard Trey Burke is expected to leave Michigan and declare for the draft, reports Goodman. Burke ranks just 70th on Chad Ford's top 100 prospects and doesn't show up on DraftExpress.com's list. However, according to Goodman, some NBA execs believe the Michigan freshman has a chance to be taken in the first round due to a weak class of point guards.
  • Scouts are divided on Sullinger's pro potential, says Ford in an Insider-only piece for ESPN.com. Some scouts compare the Ohio State big man to Kevin Love, Zach Randolph, or Paul Millsap, but the worry is that he'll end up being more of a Glen Davis type.
  • Ford also fielded a number of draft-related questions in an ESPN.com chat this afternoon. Sam Amico did the same for FOX Sports Ohio.

2012 NBA Draft Early Entrants

Hoops Rumors' up-to-date list of early entrants for the 2012 NBA draft is below. These are NCAA underclassmen who have declared their intent to enter the NBA draft this season. This list will continue to be updated through the NCAA withdrawal deadline of April 10th until the NBA's early-entry deadline of April 29th.

Players are sorted roughly by expected draft order, per DraftExpress.com's top 100 prospects. If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us.

List updated 4-30-2012

Anthony Davis, Kentucky (freshman)
Andre Drummond
, Connecticut (freshman)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky (freshman)
Thomas Robinson
,
Kansas (junior)
Bradley Beal, Florida (freshman)
Jared Sullinger
, Ohio State (sophomore)
Harrison Barnes, North Carolina (sophomore)
John Henson, North Carolina (junior)
Perry Jones III, Baylor (sophomore)
Terrence Jones, Kentucky (sophomore)
Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut (sophomore)
Damian Lillard, Weber State (junior)
Kendall Marshall, North Carolina (sophomore)
Meyers Leonard, Illinois (sophomore)
Austin Rivers, Duke (freshman)
Terrence Ross, Washington (sophomore)
Quincy Miller, Baylor (freshman)
Marquis Teague, Kentucky (freshman)
Tony Wroten, Washington (freshman)
Moe Harkless, St. John's (freshman)
Dion Waiters, Syracuse (sophomore)
Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State (junior)
Royce White, Iowa State (sophomore)
Fab Melo, Syracruse (sophomore)
John Jenkins, Vanderbilt (junior)
Doron Lamb, Kentucky (sophomore)
Will Barton, Memphis (sophomore)
Jared Cunningham, Oregon State (junior)
J'Covan Brown
, Texas (junior)
Hollis Thompson, Georgetown (junior)
Khris Middleton, Texas A&M (junior)
Tony Mitchell, Alabama (junior)
Maalik Wayns, Villanova (junior)
Renardo Sidney, Mississippi State (junior)
Terrell Stoglin, Maryland (sophomore)
Dominic Cheek, Villanova (junior)
Justin Hamilton, LSU (junior)
Victor Rudd, South Florida (sophomore)
Dominique Ferguson, Florida International (sophomore)
Jonathon Simmons, Houston (junior)
Gerardo Suero, Albany (junior)

Jared Sullinger To Enter Draft

1:50pm: Sullinger has made it official, announcing his decision in a press conference at Ohio State's Value City Arena with coach Thad Matta, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com).

11:26am: Jared Sullinger will announce this afternoon that he'll forgo his final two years at Ohio State and enter the NBA draft, tweets Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports.

Sullinger, a sophomore, averaged 17.5 PPG and 9.2 RPG on .519/.400/.768 shooting in 37 games this season, and helped lead Ohio State to a deep NCAA tournament run. The Buckeyes were eliminated by Kansas in the Final Four.

At times, Sullinger was considered a potential top-five pick, though the big man's stock has slipped a little due to questions about his below-the-rim approach. ESPN.com's Chad Ford has Sullinger being picked 13th in his most recent mock draft, while NBADraft.net has him going off the board at ninth overall.

Leonard, Lillard, Wroten To Enter Draft

This June's NBA draft will take place at the Prudential Center, but it appears the May draft lottery will be moving from New Jersey to New York. Michael Lee of the Washington Post reports that the venue for the draft lottery will switch locations for the first time since 1994. We'll see if the new location turns out to be a good-luck charm for the Bobcats, Wizards, Hornets, or another club on May 30th. In the meantime, you can keep an eye on our tentative 2012 draft order to follow the latest odds on which lottery team will land that first overall pick.

Here are few more draft-related updates:

  • Sophomore Meyers Leonard will forgo his final two years at Illinois and enter the draft, the team announced (hat tip to Scott Powers of ESPNChicago.com). The 7'1" center is expected to be selected in the first round, with ESPN.com's latest mock draft slotting him at 20th overall.
  • Point guard Damian Lillard will leave Weber State a year early. We heard last month that the junior was expected to declare his intent, and Martin Renzhofer of the Salt Lake Tribune says Lillard made the decision official today. The 6'3" Lillard is considered perhaps the top available point guard in this year's draft, and could be a lottery pick.
  • Washington freshman Tony Wroten will hire an agent and enter the draft, the school announced today. Said Wroten: "I love the University of Washington, but I just feel that it's best for me to make the jump." The 6'5" guard is expected to be a first-round pick, ranking 19th among ESPN.com's top 100 prospects and 23rd on DraftExpress.com's list.
  • ESPN.com's Chad Ford (Insider link) talks to scouts and GMs to get an idea of which players helped or hurt their stocks in the Final Four.
  • Wizards point guard John Wall spoke to Michael Lee of the Washington Post about the possibility of Washington landing Anthony Davis in the draft.