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Month: November 2024

Derek Fisher Has No Plans To Retire

May 29th, 2012 at 1:54pm CST by Luke Adams

Derek Fisher experienced arguably the worst regular season of his long career in 2011/12, a year that saw him traded away by the Lakers in a salary dump. Still, despite his declining production and increasing age (he turns 38 this summer), the veteran guard has no plans to retire, according to Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman (Twitter link). Fisher told Mayberry that he intends to continue his career beyond this season.

After Fisher was traded to the Rockets by Los Angeles, Houston bought out his contract, which included a player option for next season. Upon becoming a free agent, the point guard signed a rest-of-year deal with the Thunder. He'll hit free agency again this summer, at which point any team can sign him, including the Lakers — CBA rules forbid teams from re-signing traded players for a year after the trade or until their contract expires, whichever comes first. In Fisher's case, his contract will expire in July, allowing him to re-sign in Los Angeles if he so chooses.

Given his production in 2011/12 though, Fisher is probably not a great bet to sign for more than the veteran's minimum this summer. While he has extensive playoff experience and provides leadership off the bench, he set career-lows this season in points per 36 minutes (8.4) and PER (8.0), among other categories. He was also at the center of some off-court drama, when the NBPA attempted to oust him as union president.

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Qualifying Offers And The Starter Criteria

May 29th, 2012 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

With the summer approaching, new details of the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement figure to become relevant over the next few weeks, slightly modifiying the usual process for free agency. One such change will impact the qualifying offers teams extend to free agents this offseason, based on a newly-defined "starter criteria."

The new CBA describes a "starter" as either starting 41 games or playing 2,000 minutes in a season, and rewards players for meeting those criteria. If a player achieved one of those benchmarks in the season prior to his free agency, or averaged one of those benchmarks in the two seasons leading up to his free agency, his qualifying offer will be affected as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter critera will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
  • A played picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.

Because the 2008 class of rookies will be hitting restricted free agency this season, the 2008/09 rookie scale will dictate the qualifying offers received. Using RealGM's rookie scale chart for 2008, we can calculate the qualifying offers as follows:

  • 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick is $4,385,416.
  • 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick is $4,001,917.
  • 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick is $2,695,391.

So which players will be affected by this new rule this summer? Using our list of restricted free agents, the above calculations, and the starter criteria, this offseason's modified qualifying offers are listed below. Teams will have to offer these free agents a one-year contract worth the listed amount to make them restricted — otherwise they'll become unrestricted and can freely sign with any club.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet the starter criteria1 and will be eligible for a QO of $4,001,917:

Players picked between 10th and 30th who met the starter criteria1 and will be eligible for a QO of $4,385,416:

Other free agents with three years or less in the NBA who met the starter criteria1 and will be eligible for a QO of $2,695,391:

1 Starter criteria are assumed to be prorated for the lockout-shortened 2011/12 season. For instance, Courtney Lee played 1,757 minutes in the 66-game season. In a typical 82-game season, that number prorates to 2,183 minutes, exceeding the necessary 2,000 minutes.

Note: Thanks to Mark Deeks of Sham Sports for confirming information in this post.

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Sixers Rumors: Williams, Brand, Iguodala, Meeks

May 29th, 2012 at 11:37am CST by Luke Adams

Plenty of 76ers-related news, rumors and speculation has surfaced since the team lost Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals on Saturday night in Boston. I wrote about the team's offseason outlook yesterday, and today Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld shares a few more Sixers updates. Here are the highights:

  • Lou Williams is expected to opt out of his contract and seek a new deal similar to the five-year, $43MM Thaddeus Young signed with Philadelphia in December, according to Kyler.
  • Kyler hears that Elton Brand would be open to exercising his early termination option and eliminating the final year of his contract. However, the Sixers would have to be willing to sign him to a new multiyear deal. I have a hard time seeing this one happening. Brand would have to receive a pretty hefty commitment in a new contract to make up for the $18MM+ he'd be giving up, and that would hinder Philadelphia's future cap flexibility. It makes more sense for the Sixers to simply amnesty him and eliminate the bad contract, rather than inking an expensive new deal.
  • Andre Iguodala is expected to be available in trade talks this summer, though only if a suitor wants to make a "significant offer."
  • Jodie Meeks and Lavoy Allen will be free agents, and while Kyler writes that the 76ers can extend both players $1MM qualifying offers to make them restricted FAs, that's not quite accurate. The new CBA means a qualifying offer for Meeks, who met the "starter criteria" over the past couple seasons, would actually be worth about $2.7MM. I'll have more on this topic later today.
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International Rumors: Marbury, Freeland, Koponen

May 29th, 2012 at 10:21am CST by Luke Adams

A number of this morning's items of note relate to overseas players, so let's round them up in one place:

  • Stephon Marbury has high praise for the Chinese Basketball Association and doesn't intend to return to the NBA even if there's interest, according to Sina.com (Chinese link; translation via HoopsHype).
  • British forward Joel Freeland, who was picked by the Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2006 draft, would cost $1.5MM for Portland to buy out, according to Cesar Nanclares of TuBasket.com (Spanish link; translation via HoopsHype). A number of international clubs are also interested in Freeland, though his buyout to play elsewhere would be even more expensive ($3.1MM).
  • Nets' 2011 second-rounder Bojan Bogdanovic confirmed to Kosarka.org (Croatian link) that he met with GM Billy King, but says coming to the NBA isn't up to him, according to HoopsHype.
  • Earlier this week, Emiliano Carchia of Sportando passed along an interview between Petteri Koponen and Il Corriere di Bologna, in which the point guard said he expects to talk to the Mavericks this summer. The Mavs own the rights to the 30th pick in the 2007 draft, and the Dallas Morning News looks at the possibility of Koponen coming to Dallas for next season.
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Magic Waive Von Wafer

May 29th, 2012 at 9:56am CST by Luke Adams

The Magic have released Von Wafer, according to a team press release. The move reduces Orlando's roster to 14 players, seven of whom are under contract for next season.

Wafer signed a three-year, minimum-salary deal with Orlando in December, but only the first season was guaranteed. Wafer's cap hit for the Magic for 2011/12 was about $1.07MM, but the team won't be on the hook for any more of the 26-year-old's salary. Wafer, who averaged 5.9 points and 14.2 minutes in 33 games this season, will become an unrestricted free agent once he clears waivers.

With Wafer no longer on the roster, Orlando has one more nonguaranteed deal to consider — the Magic can avoid paying J.J. Redick's $6.19MM salary if they decide to waive the sharpshooter before August 8th.

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Important NBA Offseason Dates

May 29th, 2012 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

May 30th is the first date of the NBA offseason we've circled on the calendar, with the 2012 draft lottery set to take place tomorrow night in New York. Many crucial dates will follow, however, so let's examine what the offseason schedule looks like for the Association, as teams prepare for the 2012/13 campaign:

May

June

July

  • 1: 2012/13 salary cap year and July moratorium begin. Free agents become free.
  • 11: July moratorium ends and new salary cap figures take effect. Teams can sign free agents, make trades, and extend contracts. Seven-day amnesty period begins.
  • 16: First-round draft picks become free agents if not offered a contract.
  • 23: Last day to withdraw a qualifying offer to a restricted free agent without the player's approval.
  • 27: 2012 Summer Olympics begin.

August

  • 12: Olympics end.
  • 15: Released players begin staying on waivers for only 48 hours rather than a full week.

September

  • 6: Second-round draft picks become free agents if not offered a contract.

October

  • 1: Last day for a restricted free agent to accept a qualifying offer.
  • 29: Last day of offseason. Roster size reduced to 15-player maximum. Last day to make sign-and-trade transactions, and last day to waive non-guaranteed summer contracts.
  • 31: Last day rookie scale contracts can be extended, and last day option years on rookie contracts for the 2013/14 season can be exercised.

Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

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Los Angeles Rumors: Olshey, Gasol, Brown

May 28th, 2012 at 10:54pm CST by Chuck Myron
Neither of L.A.'s two teams has played a game in a week's time, but that hasn't stopped the news from coming out of the City of Angels, as the Lakers and Clippers plot their offseason plans.
  • Dwight Jaynes of CSNNW.com observes that Rich Cho, the last GM candidate who traveled abroad to speak with Blazers owner Paul Allen about the position, as Clippers GM Neil Olshey has reportedly done, wound up getting the job.
  • We passed along today that Sam Smith of Bulls.com hears Pau Gasol would be interested in playing for the Bulls, but Kyler doesn't think Chicago would take on Gasol's contract, which has two seasons and close to $38.3MM left on it (Twitter link).
  • Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld would be "more than shocked" if the Lakers fire coach Mike Brown, despite the team's first-round struggles and second-round ouster in the playoffs (Twitter link).
  • Earlier this evening I examined the upcoming free agency of Lakers backup big man Jordan Hill.
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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jordan Hill

May 28th, 2012 at 10:20pm CST by Chuck Myron

A little more than two months ago, Jordan Hill seemed like he might be on his way out of the league. He was buried on the Lakers bench after a midseason trade from the Rockets, passed over for backup minutes at power forward and center in favor of Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts. 

Yet as the Thunder built an 18-point lead against the Lakers in a game during the last week of the regular season, Lakers coach Mike Brown summoned Hill off the bench, and the former eighth overall pick responded with 15 rebounds, six of them on the offensive end, to go along with 14 points in 35 minutes as L.A. came back to win in double overtime. From then on, Hill was the primary backup for both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, averaging 4.8 points and 6.3 rebounds in 18.1 minutes per game in the playoffs. His offensive rebounding percentage of 18.9 is the best in the postseason so far. Suddenly, Hill is back on the radar for teams looking to improve their frontcourt depth and second-chance points.

The Lakers seem to be interested in bringing him back, but they'll have some limitations on how much they can give him, thanks to his former team. The Rockets, when they held his rights, declined the $3,632,527 team option on his contract for next season, making him an unrestricted free agent this summer. According to Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, a team can't decline an option for a player on his rookie contract, like Hill, and attempt to re-sign him for the next season at a salary greater than the value of his option. That holds true for a team that inherits such a player's rights via trade, as the Lakers have done with Hill. According to Eric Pincus of HoopsWorld, the most Hill could get from the Lakers this summer is $20.9MM over five years, with a first-year salary matching that $3.6MM option. Another team could sign him for as much as $21.4MM over four years, but I don't think anyone is willing to pay quite that much for him.

If Hill leaves the Lakers, he could be an option for the Celtics, who had the worst offensive rebounding percentage of any team in the league this season and were riddled with injuries to frontcourt players. The Warriors, 29th in offensive rebounding, figure to improve with a healthy Andrew Bogut, so they might not pursue Hill. The Mavs, 28th in that category, could go after him as a complementary piece once they figure out what to do with the rest of their many offseason priorities. It's possible that a relatively proficient offensive rebounding team, like the Pistons, could see a bargain in a 25-year-old Hill and give him another shot as a starter. The most likely scenario involves Hill signing for a salary near that $3.6MM option amount. Whether that happens with the Lakers or not hinges largely on what the team does with Gasol and Bynum. If they're both back, I'd expect Hill to be back, too, since he allows the Lakers to go to their bench without much dropoff on the offensive glass, one of the team's hallmarks.

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The Relative Value Of Lottery Picks

May 28th, 2012 at 8:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

It's hard to know exactly what's at stake in Wednesday's NBA draft lottery, when the order for the June 28th draft will be finalized. Anthony Davis is the clear frontrunner for the No. 1 pick, but after that, it gets murky. Beyond speculation on who gets picked when and by whom, there's really no telling how any of the draft prospects will turn out once they become pros. The history of the draft is full of stories about "can't miss" phenoms who never fulfilled their ballyhooed potential. Still, history can tell us a little about the relative likelihood of draftees becoming productive NBA players.

Below is the average career PER for players taken with each of the top 14 picks since 2003, when the lottery expanded to 14 teams. PER, or player efficiency rating, is a catch-all metric developed by John Hollinger of ESPN.com to provide a concise per-minute assessment of a player's performance, as Basketball-Reference explains. Like any single statistic, it's not infallible, and overrates some players who don't see much time on the floor. That's one reason why, for instance, Mouhamed Sene and J.J. Redick have the same career per of 13.5. Still, it's interesting to see what it says about a group of draft picks over time.

Most striking is the difference between the average PER for a No. 1 pick and every other position in the lottery. The 20.1 PER for recent No. 1 picks is 32% higher than that of No. 2 picks, and 23% higher than the 16.3 PER for No. 4 picks, the next best average. So, that's one more reason teams will be rooting hard to move into the top position Wednesday. The rest of the top 10 is bunched up, with another drop from there. Here are the numbers:

1st: 20.1 
2nd: 15.2 
3rd: 15.7 
4th: 16.3
5th: 15.3 
6th: 13.6 
7th: 15.0 
8th: 13.0 
9th: 14.8 
10th: 14.2 
11th: 11.6
12th: 11.9
13th: 12.7
14th: 12.6 

Note: We've assigned zeroes for 2011 No. 5 pick Jonas Valanciunas and 2005 No. 11 pick Fran Vasquez, who've yet to play in the NBA. If Valanciunas is left out of calculations, the average PER for the No. 5 pick is 17.2, and without Vasquez, the PER for No. 11 picks jumps to 13.0.

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GM Rumors: Olshey, Blazers, Magic, Kupchak

May 28th, 2012 at 7:47pm CST by Chuck Myron

Earlier today we rounded up the latest from Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld on the Magic's search for a new GM, and the news continues to come in from Orlando as well as from Portland, where the Blazers are also looking for a GM. Here's what we're hearing:

  • Clippers GM Neil Olshey recently spoke to Blazers owner Paul Allen about Portland's GM position, reports Ken Berger of CBSSports.com, who notes Olshey is not under contract for next season (Twitter links). 
  • Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak has emerged as the No. 1 candidate for the Blazers GM job and the team is awaiting his decision, Kyler tweets. Kyler says Chris Mullin is next in line if Kupchak turns Portland down, contradicting what we heard last week about Mullin suggesting he was not in the running.
  • Kupchak is also a candidate for the Magic's GM position, but Kyler isn't sure he'd take that job, as he'd like to continue working with Andrew Bynum (Twitter link). That said, a swap of Bynum for Dwight Howard, as has been discussed, would allow Kupchak to bring the big man to Florida with him.
  • Kyler said earlier that the Magic would have to move quickly if they wanted Kevin Pritchard for their GM job, and now Berger tweets that the team has reached out to him. 
  • Jeff Bower will interview for the Magic GM job this week, Berger reports (Twitter link). Bower interviewed earlier this month for same position with the Blazers. 
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