Month: November 2024

With little more than a month to go before the final night of the regular season on April 17th, there's not much time left for soon-to-be free agents to make a final impression, and little chance for teams to evaluate their play, especially for guys who won't make the playoffs. The same is true for third-year players who'll be up for extensions on their rookie-scale contracts this summer. Since the deadline for those players and teams to agree to those extensions is at the end of October, right before next season begins, the former first-round picks will be judged on their resumes through the 2012/13 season. Many of last year's extension decisions came down to the wire, but ultimately teams committed more than $400MM to keep their key young players around long-term.

We'll look at these players more in-depth in our extension candidate series in the offseason, but here's an early look at the top candidates for rookie-scale extensions in 2013: 

• Eric Bledsoe, Clippers — The Clips were wary of trading Bledsoe at the deadline in case Chris Paul bolts in free agency this summer. If Paul leaves, the fear that Bledsoe could sign a lucrative offer sheet elsewhere in the summer of 2014 could motivate L.A. to ensure it keeps at least one of its point guards long-term. Prediction: No extension, since Paul seems likely to stay.  
• John Wall, Wizards — Washington has played better since his return from injury, and Wall's per-36-minute points and assist numbers are up for the second straight season. Still, his lack of an outside shot (six made three-pointers in the last two years) is a glaring weakness. The Wizards probably don't see him as a maximum-salary player, but they surely don't want to lose the former No. 1 overall pick for nothing if another team signs him to a fat offer sheet. Prediction: Four years, $42MM. 
• Avery Bradley, Celtics — His defensive prowess doesn't show up well in statistics, but his numbers are up since Rajon Rondo went down with injury and he's one of the best young players on an aging Celtics team. He could draw an extension similar to fellow defensive stalwart Taj Gibson's four-year, $33MM package with the Bulls. Prediction: Four years, $35MM.
• Paul George, Pacers — The swingman picked the right time to make his first All-Star Game, emerging in the absence of Danny Granger. The Pacers have held steady despite Granger's absence and Roy Hibbert's regression. Indiana could get cold feet after committing so much money to Hibbert, and the habitually thrifty Pacers also have free agent David West to worry about this summer, but I don't think George slips through their fingers. Prediction: Four years, $50MM.
• Gordon Hayward, Jazz — He was removed from the starting lineup this season and is seeing fewer minutes than last year, but playing with the second unit has meant more shot opportunities and a significant uptick in scoring, from 11.8 PPG last season to 14.1 this year. His PER is up as well, to 16.9. That increased production is belied by a shooting percentage that's declined each of the past two years. Prediction: No extension.
• Derrick Favors, Jazz — Utah's decision not to trade either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap means the team won't get an extended look at Favors as a starter. He's averaging 15.0 points and 10.6 rebounds per 36 minutes with a robust 17.7 PER, but it's unclear whether he'd be able to keep those numbers up if he actually received starter's minutes every night. Still, he represents a younger, cheaper option than either Jefferson or Millsap, and that value could be increased with a team-friendly extension. Prediction: Four years, $48MM. 
• Larry Sanders, Bucks — Before the season, it seemed there was no way Sanders would get an extension, but his growth as a defensive anchor this season has put him on the map. He's leading the league with 3.2 blocks per game, but with the club's top three guards all potential free agents this summer and Ersan Ilyasova on a long-term deal, the frontcourt might not be a priority for Milwaukee. Prediction: No extension.
• DeMarcus Cousins, Kings — The future of the mercurial Cousins could be the hardest to predict, especially considering the equally tumultuous situation surrounding him in Sacramento. It seems likely new management will be in place for Sacramento/Seattle by the end of the summer, and they'll probably want to see how Cousins fits in under their watch before committing to him long-term. Talented centers are hard to come by, but a long-term deal with the wrong player can wreak havoc on a team's payroll. Prediction: No extension.
• Greg Monroe, Pistons — Monroe's agent, David Falk, said two weeks ago that his client was unlikely to sign an extension. That could simply be a negotiating ploy for a player who seems like one of the cornerstones of the Pistons' rebuilding effort, even as his per-36-minute numbers and shooting percentage have gone down this season. Perhaps Falk is trying to put pressure on the Pistons to increase any extension offer they might make after a down season for Monroe, but for now, we'll take Falk at his word. Prediction: No extension. 

As our 2012 Free Agent Tracker shows, the majority of one-year deals signed by players last offseason didn't amount to a whole lot. That's partly because our tracker took into account summer contracts and non-guaranteed deals, meaning many of the guys signed to so-called one-year contracts haven't been on NBA rosters for months. Still, even the guaranteed one-year deals on the list didn't have a particularly high success rate.

Most of the bigger names on last year's free agent market were able to secure multiyear contracts, or at least one-year deals with a second-year option. But some of the one-year contracts signed for the 2012/13 season have worked out remarkably well, not just for the teams that benefited from a player's solid production (often at a discount rate), but also for the players that have set themselves up to land a bigger contract when they hit the free agent market again this summer.

Here are my picks for 10 of the best one-year deals of 2012/13:

• Chris Kaman ($8MM, Mavericks): The most expensive player on the list by far, Kaman still turned into a reasonable value for a Mavericks team that refuses to be eliminated entirely from the playoff hunt. Even playing a career-low 22.2 minutes per game, Kaman is averaging 11.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and a 16.4 PER, the third-best mark of his career.
• J.J. Hickson ($4MM, Trail Blazers): Hickson couldn't do better than one year and $4MM on last year's free agent market, and the Blazers couldn't land a first-round pick for him on the trade market last month. But at some point, Hickson's play will force a team to pay a decent price for him. He has averaged a double-double with Portland this season, posting 13.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG, while shooting an extremely efficient 56.9% from the floor.
• Marco Belinelli ($1.96MM, Bulls): Although his overall numbers may not be quite as strong, Belinelli's price makes him a better one-year value than other scoring guards like Randy Foye ($2.5MM) and Nick Young ($5.6MM). His 9.8 PPG and .369 3PT% have been crucial for a Bulls team whose "Bench Mob" was overhauled last summer.
• Martell Webster ($1.75MM, Wizards): More than in any of his previous seven seasons, Webster has shown some of the promise that made him the sixth overall pick in 2005. His 11.1 PPG, .455 FG%, and 13.7 PER aren't exceptional, but they're all career-highs for the 26-year-old.
• Alan Anderson (Minimum salary, Raptors): Even with all the new small forwards arriving in Toronto this season, Anderson has made a strong case for regular playing time, averaging 11.6 PPG off the bench while playing just 24.5 minutes per contest.
• Matt Barnes (Minimum salary, Clippers): Earning a minimum salary, Barnes has been such a nice pickup for the Clippers that Grantland's Zach Lowe recently made a case for why the former Laker could be the key to the Clips' playoff run. Like Webster, he's on track to record new career-bests in PPG (10.8) and PER (15.9) as perhaps the NBA's best second unit.
• Andray Blatche (Minimum salary, Nets): While players like Luis Scola, Elton Brand, and Brendan Haywood were claimed on amnesty waivers last July, Blatche passed through unclaimed, and was out of work for weeks before eventually landing a minimum deal with the Nets. There are probably a few teams kicking themselves now for passing on the ex-Wizard, who has bounced back in a big way in Brooklyn, averaging 10.1 PPG on a career-best .501 FG%. Blatche's 22.3 PER is also far and away a career high.
• Antawn Jamison (Minimum salary, Lakers): Although Jamison's numbers have taken a major dip across the board now that he's no longer a primary scoring option, he's still been a nice value for the Lakers at the veteran's minimum. Jamison's 15.0 points per 36 minutes and 15.1 PER may be the worst marks of his career, but they're still more than you'd expect from a minimum-salary bench piece.
• Jermaine O'Neal (Minimum salary, Suns): No one on this list has seen the court less in 2012/13 than O'Neal, who has played just 17.3 MPG in 45 contests. Still, considering how he looked in Boston over the last couple seasons, it's been a solid bounce-back campaign for the veteran big man, who has shot 50.6% from the field and is rebounding like he did in his prime.
• Nate Robinson (Minimum salary, Bulls): Kirk Hinrich received a larger and longer-term contract with the Bulls, and was expected to bear the brunt of the point guard load while Derrick Rose recovered from ACL surgery. But with Hinrich battling injuries over the last month and a half, it's Robinson who has taken over as the starter. He's been a little inconsistent, but the 5'9" guard has still averaged 11.9 PPG, 4.2 APG, and a 17.3 PER.