2014 NBA Draft

Central Notes: LeBron, Cavs, Hammond, Pistons

The Cavs appear to face an uphill battle if they’re to sign LeBron James this summer, but they still intend to try, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com, who points to the team’s interest in Heat assistant David Fizdale as evidence. Still, Fizdale tells Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel that he’s had no contact with Cleveland and that his only ties to the team were through Mike Brown, whom the team fired last week (Twitter link). Here’s more on Cleveland’s coaching search and the team’s rivals from the Central Division:

  • Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is enamored with Pistons guard Chauncey Billups, though Billups, who’s yet to retire from playing, prefers a future as an NBA GM as opposed to a coach, writes Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Plain Dealer. Vinny Del Negro, Alvin Gentry, Lionel Hollins and Mark Jackson are more likely candidates for Cleveland’s head coaching vacancy, Boyer believes.
  • Adrian Griffin seemed like the early favorite for the Cavs coaching job, but it’s unclear whether he’s a high on Cleveland’s list, as Boyer writes in the same piece.
  • Bucks GM John Hammond will remain with the team at least through the draft, Bucks co-owner Wesley Edens said Tuesday, as Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes. Edens gave no assurances that the GM will last longer than that in spite of Hammond’s contract, which runs for two more seasons, Gardner notes.
  • The Pistons and Hornets had discussions about a deal during the season that would have allowed Detroit to keep its first-round pick regardless of where it ended up in the order, but they never got serious, tweets Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. Charlotte wound up with Detroit’s first-rounder for next month when the Pistons fell to ninth in Tuesday’s lottery.
  • Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson are among the players the Pistons will consider with the 38th overall pick, according to Keith Langlois of Pistons.com (on Twitter).
  • We rounded up more on the Cavs earlier today.

Lottery Fodder: Jazz, Kings, Hornets, Magic

With the order set for June’s NBA Draft, it’s only natural that we see an influx of mock drafts in the coming days. But Tuesday’s lottery tells us only the assets that most teams will start their draft process with, as plenty can happen between now and draft night on June 26th. After all, eight teams possess multiple first round picks with the Suns leading the way with three. The Sixers, meanwhile, have two picks in round one and five in round two, giving them plenty of ammo to pursue moves.

There’s a lot of draft fodder to come over the next five weeks, but let’s take a look at what is being said by the league’s decision-makers fresh off of Tuesday night’s lottery results:

  • Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey, who owns picks five, 23 and 35, said that Utah may try to package those assets in a deal to move up, tweets Jody Genessy of the Deseret News. Aaron Falk of the Salt Lake Tribune writes that it’s hard not to look at Tuesday night as a letdown, adding that the Utah front office extolled the depth of this year’s draft class.
  • Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee spoke to Kings GM Pete D’Alessandro, whose team landed the eighth selection in the draft. D’Alessandro indicated that the Kings would be open to dealing the pick if a “game-changing” talent doesn’t fall to them. They could also trade up, Jones says, or looks to acquire a second round pick in what is a deep draft. (Twitter links)
  • Citing the franchise’s history of executing draft-related trades, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer predicts the Hornets will attempt to turn picks nine, 24 and 45, along with $17MM in cap space, into something bigger. Now that they have a centerpiece in Al Jefferson and assets to deal, Bonnell speculates the team could kick the tires on Kevin Love or restricted free agents Greg Monroe and Gordon Hayward.
  • The Magic will pick in the dreaded fourth position come June, presumably unable to land Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Joel Embiid unless something drastic changes by draft night. While there was plenty of disappointment in Orlando, Magic GM Rob Hennigan remained upbeat, writes Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. “Certainly we would have liked to have seen the highest number possible for us. I think all the teams would. But we like where we’re sitting. We feel like we can get a good player, and we feel like we’ve got our work cut out for us here the next couple of weeks to figure out exactly who that is.”

2014 NBA Draft Order

Another NBA Draft Lottery is in the books and this year’s winner is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will have their pick among the consensus top-three of Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid on June 26 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. This is the second consecutive year the Cavs will pick first and the sixth time in their history. However, as Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight reminds us, no team with the No. 1 overall pick has won the NBA title since 1998. Of course, Silver’s analysis indicates that a team would rather win the lottery than not, but it serves as an important reminder that the best pick and the highest pick aren’t always the same thing.

The Cavaliers were obviously the big winners on Tuesday night, as they possessed only a 1.7 percent chance of landing the top selection (not to mention only a 6.1 percent chance of landing in the top three). The Cavs leapfrogging eight teams dropped the Pistons down to the ninth pick, which they must now forfeit to the Hornets as a part of a 2012 trade involving Corey Maggette and Ben Gordon. Had Detroit stayed in the top eight, which had an 82.4 percent chance of happening, they would have retained their selection, undoubtedly making them the biggest losers of the night.

Here are all 60 picks that, barring trades, are officially set in stone for June 26:

Round One

  1. Cavaliers
  2. Bucks
  3. Sixers
  4. Magic
  5. Jazz
  6. Celtics
  7. Lakers
  8. Kings
  9. Hornets
  10. Sixers
  11. Nuggets
  12. Magic
  13. Timberwolves
  14. Suns
  15. Hawks
  16. Bulls
  17. Celtics
  18. Suns
  19. Bulls
  20. Raptors
  21. Thunder
  22. Grizzlies
  23. Jazz
  24. Hornets
  25. Rockets
  26. Heat
  27. Suns
  28. Clippers
  29. Thunder
  30. Spurs

Round Two

  1. Bucks
  2. Sixers
  3. Cavs
  4. Knicks
  5. Jazz
  6. Bucks
  7. Raptors
  8. Pistons
  9. Sixers
  10. Timberwolves
  11. Nuggets
  12. Rockets
  13. Hawks
  14. Timberwolves
  15. Hornets
  16. Wizards
  17. Sixers
  18. Bucks
  19. Bulls
  20. Suns
  21. Knicks
  22. Sixers
  23. Timberwolves
  24. Sixers
  25. Heat
  26. Nuggets
  27. Pacers
  28. Spurs
  29. Raptors
  30. Spurs

Draft Notes: Minimum Age, McDermott, Bulls

We’re less than an hour from the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, where, if you buy into the hype, the fate of a handful of the league’s more unfortunate franchises hangs in the balance. This morning, our Chuck Myron outlined the odds each participant has of landing a top-three pick. Beyond that, the ping pong balls will also dictate the destination for some of the draft’s conditional selections, as listed in our reverse standings.

Let’s take a look at some other NBA draft-related notes leading up to tonight’s festivities in New York City:

  • Speaking to the press before the lottery, Adam Silver reiterated his preference to raise the age limit of draft-eligible players from 19 to 20, tweets Tom Moore of Calkins Media. Silver added that the NCAA must be involved in the discussions, citing an improving relationship with NCAA front man Mark Emmert, tweets Tim Bontemps of the New York Post.
  • Silver met with seven of the draft’s top players before the lottery tonight and expects this class to be a bit more meaningful to him, tweets Moore. “This class has a special place in my heart. It’ll be my first as commissioner,” Silver said.
  • Creighton’s Doug McDermott expected to meet with the Cavaliers in Chicago during last week’s NBA Draft Combine but ultimately did not, writes Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Plain Dealer. The sharpshooter does expect to work out in the near future for Cleveland, who will hold the ninth pick unless they get lucky tonight.
  • Although the Bulls will be armed with two first round picks in June’s draft, they are unlikely to use both selections themselves and are a good bet to be active between now and then, writes K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Jonathan Givony of Draft Express published his latest mock draft which, although it is bound to change depending tonight’s results, is complete with new and improved formatting and features.

Prospect Profile: Sean Kilpatrick

On an individual level, Cincinnati’s Sean Kilpatrick left school on a high note and gave teams a strong reminder of what he can do at the NBA level.  The guard put up 20.6 points per contest and was a workhorse for the Bearcats, playing 33.6 minutes per game.  More importantly, he was able to do it all more efficiently than in his junior campaign.  Kilpatrick’s percentages suffered in 2013 as he was asked to shoot more than ever at 14.4 attempts per game, but he turned things around while taking 14.9 shots per contest last season.NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament-2nd Round-Cincinnati vs Harvard

What Kilpatrick does better than most is score and his jump shot should put him in the mix for the mid-to-late second round.  However, he wants to make teams aware of what he can do on the other side of the floor.

They talk about me as a guy that can score in bunches because that’s the main thing that has been displayed for the last couple of years,” Kilpatrick told Hoops Rumors.  “But, I’m a pretty good defender as well and that’s something I want to keep showing teams.  It’s not just about scoring.  If you can be a lock-down defender that will help you in the long run and that’s something I want to focus on.

A fall writeup on Kilpatrick from Josh Riddell of DraftExpress expressed concern about Kilpatrick’s size, and it’s safe to assume that it’s a concern for teams as well.  At 6’4″, the Cincinnati product is a two-guard with typical one-guard dimensions, but he’s not the least bit worried about that.

It’s not a problem.  If you can score with the basketball it shouldn’t matter how tall you are,” the 24-year-old said.  “You got guys that are like 6’7″ out there playing the two, but a guy like Wesley Matthews on the Blazers, he’s a two but he can also shoot the ball and he’s a lot smaller than most.  He can defend and shoot the ball when he gets open.  You can’t base anything on height.  If you can score, you can score.

Because he was asked to lead the scoring charge every night for Cincinnati, Kilpatrick’s field goal percentage suffered a drop in his junior season.  However, things leveled off this past season and Kilpatrick credits coach Mick Cronin for helping him improve his shot selection.  That’ll be an extremely important asset for Kilpatrick as he makes the transition to the pros.  In a draft that’s short on shooters in the first round, there’s a strong chance a team drafts Kilpatrick in the second round thanks to his ability to fire from long distance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bucks Rumors: Mayo, Stauskas, Young, LaVine

The new owners of the Bucks have broached the subject of a front office purge, but it appears unlikely they’ll follow the path of Grizzlies owner Robert Pera and oust GM John Hammond and assistant GM David Morway this year, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe wrote earlier today. We’ll pass along more from Milwaukee here:

  • The Bucks would be willing to trade O.J. Mayo, but finding fair value will be a tall order, given the two years and $16MM remaining on his contract, according to Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times. It’s unclear whether the team is actively shopping the 26-year-old, or if he’s just one of many Bucks who aren’t off-limits to a deal.
  • Still, Milwaukee is almost certain to draft a shooting guard, even if it entails acquiring a pick via trade to select one, Woelfel writes, adding that the team is eyeing Nik Stauskas, James Young, Zach LaVine, Joe Harris, Jabari Brown and Devyn Marble.
  • There’s a distinct chance that whomever Milwaukee selects with its lottery pick, and perhaps to a lesser degree, its trio of second-rounders, won’t be pleased, as Mark Heisler of Forbes.com details. “What the Clippers used to be, that’s what the Bucks are now,” an NBA GM told Heisler. “The place every agent says, ‘I don’t want my player there.’” 

Each Team’s Odds For Top-Three Picks

The NBA’s draft lottery is set to take place tonight, with the league’s 14 non-playoff teams vying for a chance at the first overall pick and the opportunity to select a player from a crop of prospects that includes Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker and others.

The odds at landing the first overall pick are cited frequently, from the Milwaukee’s 25% all the way down to Phoenix’s 0.5%. But what chance does each team have to land a top-three pick? Listed in the chart below are the odds each lottery team has at the first, second, and third overall picks, as well as each team’s overall odds at landing in the top three, with explanation where applicable.

The first number you see here is the team’s odds for the first pick. The second is the odds for the second pick, and the third the odds for pick No. 3. The final number is the odds for any top-three pick.

  • Bucks — 25%, 21.5%, 17.7%, 64.2%
  • Sixers — 19.9%, 18.8%, 17.1%, 55.8%
  • Magic — 15.6%, 15.7%, 15.6%, 46.9% — These percentages reflect the Magic’s odds of landing a top three pick with their own selection. They stand a .0076% chance of earning two top-three picks, since they get the less favorable of the Nuggets and Knicks picks, as University of Florida statistics professor Larry Winner tells Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. Winner also calculates the odds that the Magic end up with a top-three pick from the Nuggets and Knicks but fall outside the top three with their own pick as .044%.
  • Jazz — 10.4%, 11.2%, 12.1%, 33.7% — The Jazz and Celtics tied for the fourth-worst record, and the Jazz won the random drawing to have the fourth-best lottery odds. Utah’s odds are only slightly better than Boston’s, however, since they take the average of the odds for the fourth and fifth worst teams and give the winner of the random drawing the extra ping-pong ball combination if, as in this case, the number of combinations works out to an odd number. The amalgamated odds for the Celtics and Jazz are courtesy of Celtics assistant GM Mike Zarren and Celtics.com.
  • Celtics — 10.3%, 11.1%, 12.0%, 33.4%
  • Lakers — 6.3%, 7.1%, 8.1%, 21.5%
  • Kings — 4.3%, 4.9%, 5.8%, 15.0%
  • Pistons — 2.8%, 3.3%, 3.9%, 9.9%
  • Cavs — 1.7%, 2.0%, 2.4%, 6.1%
  • Pelicans — 1.1%, 1.3%, 1.6%, 4.0%
  • Nuggets — 1.5%, 1.7%, 2.2%, 5.4% — These are the combined odds of Denver and New York, which gives its pick up to Denver in every scenario. The Nuggets in turn owe the less favorable of their pick and New York’s pick to the Magic, as explained above.
  • Knicks — 0% (owes its pick to the Nuggets).
  • Timberwolves — 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.9%, 2.2%
  • Suns — 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 1.8%

Draft Notes: Ennis, Love, Sixers, Jazz

The draft lottery is just a day away, and in addition to finding out which teams have the best shot at a franchise-changing talent, the results could help foster a pre-draft trading spree. Here’s the latest on the draft front:

  • Tyler Ennis has been invited to the NBA’s Draft Lottery Show, tweets Fran Fraschilla of ESPN.com (H/T Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv). The invitation reinforces the perception of Ennis as a lottery pick.
  • Sean Deveney of The Sporting News looks at how favorable lottery results could help the Lakers, Celtics, and Suns boost their chances of landing Kevin Love.
  • Bob Ford of The Philadelphia Inquirer looks at the strategy of Sixers GM Sam Hinkie, who has made a multitude of moves to tank the roster and acquire draft picks for the coming years. While the severe measures might not pay off and have raised some eyebrows in a league built on competition, Ford writes that Hinkie has been justified in his approach considering Philadelphia’s limitations and the league’s lottery system.
  • The Jazz will work out Melvin Ejim and Niels Giffey, among other players, on Tuesday, according to Aaron Falk of The Salt Lake Tribune.
  • Randy Hollis of Deseret News writes that the next few weeks could be the most critical time in the history of the Jazz, starting with how the team fares in the draft.

Pacific Rumors: Warriors, Love, Suns

Monte Poole of CSNBayArea.com writes that the Warriors must be salivating over the idea of seeing Wolves star Kevin Love in blue and gold. A trade match is far from likely, but it’s no more inconceivable than the events of a last summer, when the Warriors found a way to dump the bloated salaries of Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson and came away with Andre Iguodala.  Here’s more out of the Pacific Division..

  • No surprise here – Mark Jackson‘s ESPN deal includes language that will allow him to discuss coaching vacancies with team and break his deal if he chooses to fill one, a source tells Marc Berman of the New York Post.  The Warriors, of course, dismissed Jackson this offseason before hiring Steve Kerr.
  • Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News is also tempted to dream, but he doesn’t believe that the Warriors are likely to land Love.  To acquire Love, the Warriors either need the Wolves or a third team to be big fans of David Lee and his bloated contract.
  • The Suns‘ best two players are point guards and the draft will have at least five first-round picks who are projected as eventual starting point guards.  Still, the Suns won’t rule out a PG, writes Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic.  Eric Bledsoe is a restricted free agent and Goran Dragic can opt out of his contract next year.  They could also use a third point guard for the short-term and a rookie point guard could spend significant time with the team’s new D-League affiliate, the Bakersfield Jam.

And-Ones: Johnson, Williams, Draft

Kevin Johnson has made it a point to include Player Agents in the search for the new head of the NBA Player’s Association, writes Ric Bucher of Bleacher Report. This approach differs from former NBAPA head, Billy Hunter, who was known to exclude agents from the decision making process.

More from around the league:

  • The rapid turnover in coaches and executives is thinning out the candidate pool and forcing teams to get creative in their searches, writes Jason Lloyd of The Akron Beacon Journal. This trend is leading to more coaches getting hired without previous experience, and fewer coaches getting second chances if they didn’t succeed at their first job, opines Lloyd.
  • Terrence Williams has reached an agreement to play in the Philippines with the Meralco Bolts, reports David Pick of Eurobasket.com (Twitter link). The former NBA player has played this season with Turk Telekom Ankara, Guayama and the L.A. D-Fenders of the NBA D-league. Williams’ career numbers are 7.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 2.4 APG in 19.1 minutes per contest.
  • Heading into the draft, the player with the biggest mystery surrounding his game is Dante Exum, writes Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Exum said, “I guess they all have an idea of what I’m about. They’ve seen some of the college players play 40 game seasons, and they haven’t seen me a lot. So I guess when they are trying to look at tape, they can’t see a lot of me.” Exum is projected as an early lottery pick.
  • Dei Lynam of CSNPhilly.com profiles draft prospects Markel Brown and Nick Johnson.
  • More than ever, team executives are looking for prospects with solid character when making their draft selections, writes Vince Ellis of The Detroit Free Press. Talent still rules the decision making process, but if all things are considered equal, teams will seek out the player destined to provide them with the “fewest headaches,” notes Ellis.
  • Mark Snyder of The Detroit Free Press looks at Kentucky swingman James Young‘s path to the pros and his thoughts on the draft process. You can also check on my draft profile on Young here.