2014 NBA Draft

Poll: Who Should Be The No. 1 Pick?

The college season is over, and the time for evaluating top prospects in live game conditions is through. The 2014 draft class didn’t live up to astronomically high expectations, but it still appears to be the best group in the past few years. There will be a lot riding on the decisions that teams holding lottery picks will have to make, and the greatest amount of pressure will rest on the shoulders of the GM with the No. 1 overall pick.

Andrew Wiggins entered as the most ballyhooed of them all and a surefire top overall pick, but he stumbled, and found himself behind Kansas teammate Joel Embiid, a relative basketball neophyte from Cameroon who surged to the No. 1 spot on draft boards in the middle of the season. Jabari Parker was up and down, but he appears more NBA-ready than Wiggins and Embiid. All three have been the leading candidates for the top pick for much of the season.

Chad Ford of ESPN.com has moved Wiggins back to No. 1 in his latest rankings, and that’s where Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress has him, too. Still, Wiggins is third behind Embiid and Parker on Aran Smith’s board at NBADraft.net. Teams remain undecided, and the Kings apparently have Wiggins outside their top three picks, according to Ford.

Much depends on the health of Embiid’s injured back, and the identity of the team picking first overall won’t be known until the May 20th draft lottery. There are plenty of variables that will go into the equation in the 79 days remaining before the draft, but if you were the GM picking first overall and the draft were tonight, whom would you select?

Feel free to consult our prospect profiles on Embiid, Parker and Wiggins to help you make your decision. When you’re ready, cast your vote below, and explain your choice in the comments.

Draft Notes: Saric, Napier, Harrison Twins

Connecticut finished off a surprise run to the NCAA title on Monday, and with the college basketball season in the books, the focus on the June 26th draft sharpens. Underclassmen who’ve declared for the draft have just one more week to withdraw without losing their NCAA eligibility, so decision time is drawing near for many. Here’s the latest:

  • Agent Misko Raznatovic of BeoBasket says he’s become the new representative for lottery prospect Dario Saric, adding that he expects to make an announcement about Saric’s future in the next couple of days (Twitter links; hat tip to Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia). He’ll partner with Jeff Schwartz of Excel Sports Management, tweets Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress. A report last month indicating that Saric had agreed to a deal that would keep him in Europe prompted Carchia to tweet shortly thereafter that he expected Saric to sign with Raznatovic, but the European deal never came to fruition, and Saric said a few days ago that he’s leaning toward entering the draft.
  • Shabazz Napier won the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player award, but several NBA executives tell Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders that they still see the point guard as a second-round pick (Sulia link).
  • NBA types also continue to downplay the prospects of Kentucky freshman twins Aaron Harrison and Andrew Harrison, as Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv details.

Marcus Smart Entering NBA Draft

It’s far from a surprise, but tonight, Oklahoma State star Marcus Smart announced that he will be entering the 2014 NBA Draft, according to a staff report from ESPN.com.  Smart, a virtual lock for the lottery, also announced that he’ll be represented by the Wasserman Media Group, adds Emiliano Carchia of Sportando (on Twitter).

This time last year, Smart looked like he had a very real chance of being the first overall pick in the 2013 draft.  However, the point guard decided against going pro right away and opted for another year in Stillwater, Oklahoma.  While Smart has said that he doesn’t regret his decision, it has been a strong reminder that staying in school isn’t always the best move for top draft prospects.

Smart averaged 17.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists this season for the Cowboys, who lost in the second round of this year’s NCAA tournament.  Recently, our own Eddie Scarito looked at Smart as a part of our Prospect Profile series.

Draft Notes: Kentucky, Wiggins, Magic, Kings

There are no NBA games scheduled this evening as the spotlight falls on the NCAA title game between Kentucky and Connecticut. Eight players on the rosters of the two teams are among the top 61 prospects in Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress rankings, though potential lottery pick Willie Cauley-Stein is injured and won’t play for the Wildcats. It’s nonetheless a bevy of talent on display, and with multiple sources telling Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times that just about every one of Kentucky’s decorated freshmen will declare for this year’s draft, it looks like it won’t be long before that talent is in the NBA (Twitter link). Here’s the latest on the next wave headed for the Association:

  • The Magic have Andrew Wiggins, Dante Exum, Jabari Parker and Marcus Smart, in that order, atop their draft board, Chad Ford of ESPN.com reports in his latest Insider-only “Tank Rank” piece. Exum also has “some traction” with the Sixers, and the Lakers are high on him, too.
  • The Kings don’t have Wiggins within their top three prospects, Ford hears. The ESPN.com scribe makes note of the draft plans for several other teams, too, though some of it appears to be educated guesswork.
  • Wiggins has chosen BDA Management’s Bill Duffy for his agent, sources tell Bleacher Report’s Jared Zwerling (Twitter link). Duffy beat out Jay Z’s Roc Nation Sports, and Wiggins was also linked to Rich Paul of Klutch Sports.
  • Parker, Randle and Joel Embiid are all expected to sign with Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group, Woelfel tweets. Woelfel includes Smart’s name on that list, too, reiterating what Zwerling reported last week.
  • TNT’s David Aldridge ranks the shooting guards expected to be available for the draft in his Morning Tip column for NBA.com, giving Michigan’s Nik Stauskas the slight edge for the No. 1 spot over Gary Harris of Michigan State.

Prospect Profile: Joel Embiid

This wasn’t the year that Kansas had envisioned for themselves at the outset and it certainly wasn’t the season that Joel Embiid had hoped for.  At least, it’s not how he wanted it to end.  The 7-foot center saw his draft stock steadily rise throughout the year but the back injury he suffered earlier this year might eliminate him from contention for the first overall pick.  Out of action since March 1st, the big man is now unsure of whether he will enter the June draft at all.

If Embiid decides to go pro, he’ll go through an medical exam that is stringent even by NBA Draft standards.  He’ll also have to go in with absolute confidence in his ability to perform in workouts.  Embiid could probably keep away from live competition and still land in the top three, but he’ll at least have to audition for teams and show that his mobility is still there.

In a season that was supposed to be all about teammate Andrew Wiggins, Embiid averaged 11.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks in 23.1 minutes per game.  While the preordained No. 1 overall pick in the draft failed to display a killer instinct at crucial times throughout the year, Embiid likely made scouts drool with his athletic ability.  He could probably stand to add some weight to his 250 pound frame, but the 7-footer boasts a 7’5″ wingspan that allows him to disrupt any offense he goes up against.

On the other side of the ball, Embiid’s agility allows him to move quite well in transition for easy buckets.  Meanwhile, in the halfcourt set, Embiid probably offers more low post ability than your average college big man.  He can also convert from mid-range, making him a tough assignment for any center.

For all of the praise that Embiid received throughout his freshman campaign, no one has accused him of being a polished product.  The 20-year-old came off of the bench for the first eight games of the KU season and while he took off like a rocket ship from that point, it’s clear that he still has a long way to go.  In any given draft, you’ll find that the top prospects available were veterans of the AAU circuit with an eye on the NBA dating back to middle school.  In Embiid’s case, the Cameroonian has only been playing hoops since 2011.  That should mean a high ceiling for the Jayhawk, but it could also signal some rough patches early on in his NBA career.

Will Embiid ultimately enter the draft?  Back in January, he confessed that he wasn’t sure if he was quite ready to make the jump and he sounds just as conflicted today.  However, as Marcus Smart has reminded all of us, staying in school can be a risky and somewhat regrettable move.  Sometimes life offers us opportunities before we’re actually ready for them and, usually, you can’t put them on hold.  Embiid may not feel like he’s ready, but the only logical choice for him is to dive into the deep end and become a top pick while it’s still a lock.  Returning for his sophomore season may be the more comfortable option, but it’s not the wise one.

And-Ones: Faried, Draft, Gay

Kenneth Faried is headed toward the final year of his rookie-scale contract and will be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2015. Re-signing him to an extension this summer will certainly cost the Nuggets, but figuring out what he’s worth is the harder question, writes Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post. The article analyzes what the top power forwards are paid, and Faried’s financial place amongst them. In 74 games this season, Faried has averaged 13.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 1.2 APG in 26.6 minutes per contest.

More from around the league:

  • Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv runs down the NBA Draft prospects who will be playing in Monday night’s NCAA Championship game.
  • Former NBA player Danny Schayes of Sheridan Hoops gives his thoughts on why raising the minimum draft age is a bad idea for both the NCAA and the NBA.
  • Despite being able to opt out of his current deal this summer, Rudy Gay feels that there is a good chance he could be back with the Kings next season, writes Bill Ingram of Basketball Insiders. Gay said that, “Everything is a possibility. For right now I just owe it to my teammates to finish out the season to the best of my ability, and not to comment too much. Obviously this team has the talent and the coach to put it all together.
  • Chris Mannix of SI.com (Twitter link) believes it’s a good move for Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky to return to school for another season. Mannix thinks another year could improve their draft stocks, as he had them both slotted as second-rounders this year.

Eastern Notes: Anthony, Cavs, Bucks, Sixers

Celtics center Joel Anthony has a $3.8MM player option this summer that he is expected to exercise, but he’s still unsure of his decision, writes Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe. Anthony said, “When the season’s over, I’ll talk with my agent and look to see what we’re going to do.” Anthony hasn’t seen much playing time, primarily because he is new to the system and the club wanted to play Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk in the frontcourt, opines Washburn. But he also believes that Anthony could be a more useful asset next season when the Celtics move forward from rebuilding mode.

More from the East:

  • The Cavs have assigned Sergey Karasev and Scotty Hopson to the Canton Charge of the NBA D-League, the team announced. Karasev has appeared in 18 games for the Charge with averages of 13.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.4 APG and 1.0 SPG in 30.0 minutes per game. Hopson was signed on March 31st and has appeared in one game for Cleveland this season.
  • Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio looks at what issues the Cavs will have to address prior to next season.
  • The Sixers are on their way towards securing the second worst record in the NBA. Tom Moore of Calkins Media looks at what the team’s options would be if they secured the second pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Moore’s scenario is based on the Bucks selecting Andrew Wiggins with the first overall pick.
  • The reports that the Bucks might be sold as early as this weekend are premature, as Don Walker and Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel detail. Steve Greenberg of Allen & Co., the firm that owner Herb Kohl retained to bring in new team investors, said, “The process is ongoing. There is a lot of speculation out there. There is an active and ongoing process with respect to the Bucks. But we are not going to comment on speculation.”

Prospect Profile: Kyle Anderson

UCLA’s Kyle Anderson has to be considered one of the tougher prospects to accurately gauge as a draft prospect, as well predict what position he will actually play at the professional level. Anderson ran the point in high school, where he was a national standout and a McDonald’s All-American, but UCLA played him at the wing in his first year, alongside veteran point guard Larry Drew II, who averaged 35 minutes a game.

Anderson wasn’t overly impressive during that first season. He lacked the quickness and scoring repertoire to really generate much offense on his own, and without an effective outside shot, he became more of a passing specialist than a scorer or playmaker.

Kyle Anderson Sr., a high school basketball coach in New Jersey, had spent years molding his son into a point guard. So he was upset when coach Bob Hurley Sr. used Anderson as a shooting guard at St. Anthony High in Jersey City. “I was offended by that,” Anderson Sr. said, and continued to be upset when former UCLA coach Ben Howland did the same thing last season.

But then out went Howland, and in came Steve Alford, and with him came a move back to the point for Anderson. Instead of seeing a player who was too slow or a shooting guard playing out of position, Alford saw something unorthodox but special. Alford said, “He’s very unique. A 6’9″ point guard that facilitates the way he can. He’s a nightmare to match up with.

Anderson quickly proved his value at the position, and was selected as one of six finalists for the Bob Cousy Award, presented annually to the nation’s top point guard. He also earned all-Pac-12 honors for his efforts. In 36 games Anderson averaged 14.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 6.5 APG, and 1.8 SPG while playing 33.2 minutes per game. His slash line is .480/.483/.737. His career numbers are 12.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 31.6 minutes a night. His career slash line is .452/.375/.736.

Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com writes that Anderson is unique, and has no match in college basketball. Norlander stated in his article, “Standing 6-feet-9 and playing point guard — and doing it well — he’s the closest thing to Magic Johnson since Magic Johnson. No, he’s not the next Magic Johnson, nor is he approaching Magic Johnson. But a player so tall, lengthy and commanding never gets trusted to run an offense in contemporary college hoops.

On KenPom.com (subscription required), the per-possession player stats are tracked and ranked in 15 different categories. Players whose stats fall in roughly the top 10 percentile among players in each category are highlighted in yellow. Anderson’s stat line is yellow in 11 out of the 15. Pretty impressive for a relatively unheralded player.

It’s metrics like that, plus his intriguing size and versatility that has taken him from being just another college prospect and now positioned him as a first-round, and possible late-lottery selection. The scouts are quite divided on where Anderson will end up being taken. NBA Draft.net has him going as high as fifth. Draft Express.com has him going 19th, while both Bleacher Report and CBSSports.com have Anderson being taken 24th. He currently sits 23rd on Chad Ford of ESPN.com’s Big Board.

The biggest knock on Anderson is his speed. His nickname is “Slow-Mo,” and being slower is a major concern, especially when you consider the speed at which the point guard position, or any position, is traditionally played at in the NBA. The argument against Anderson actually starts at the defensive end. With below-average lateral quickness, he won’t have an easy time guarding opposing point guards, and without much strength, athleticism or explosiveness, he’d be open to exploitation as a wing defender. There really isn‘t a defensive position that can hide his weaknesses. Anderson might be a versatile threat on offense, but he’s a tweener on defense.

In college, Anderson was able to use his size and basketball IQ to his advantage. He ranked ninth in the Pac-12 with a defensive rating of 95.4, and his defensive win shares of 206 was good for sixth in the league. Anderson was third in steals with 1.8 per game, and also ranked first in total defensive rebounds with 270. He has the ability and desire to be productive on the defensive end, but whether or not his lack of elite level athleticism will hamper him at the next level remains to be seen.

Offensively, scouts wonder if his lack of breakdown burst will prevent him from creating his own shots or getting to his spots, both as a point guard or a small forward. Despite the improvements he made to his jump shot, it’s still not a reliable weapon. Anderson made less than one three-pointer a game, and he doesn’t have the most confident release, which dampens hope that he can become a scoring threat from outside. An NBA scout said, “I honestly don’t see him lasting more than a few years in the league, though I’ve talked to other scouts that really like him. I just think his offense will take a step back once he gets to the NBA, and his inability to defend is really going to hurt him.

As with any point guard, his true value will be measured in how well he runs an offense. Anderson is a very strong playmaker. He is very good at finding people in transition, he throws an accurate lob pass, and is effective at throwing outlet passes to facilitate fast breaks. Anderson is also good at recognizing the open man and setting up his shooters. As a ball handler though, he was prone to turnovers, averaging 3.1 per game this year. He was especially vulnerable to being stripped when driving to the basket. More experience running the point could correct these tendencies, but it is something to be wary of.

The final verdict on Kyle Anderson is a complicated one. Natural point guards of his size don’t come along very often, so this alone makes him an intriguing candidate. His lack of speed and athleticism is an issue, especially in the NBA where guards seemingly get faster every year. Anderson has the ability to play multiple positions, which could make him a valuable role-player off the bench. I also see his size and passing ability being a plus in certain systems. The triangle offense is one that requires a “point forward”, and is a role that I could see Anderson sliding into very well. His pre-draft workouts will be especially important to where he eventually gets selected. If he can belay some fears about his lack of explosiveness, he might prove too intriguing a prospect to pass up. I believe he’ll be taken in the 15-22 range of the upcoming draft. If he ends up with a team that runs the right system and exhibits some patience with his development, Anderson might have a future in the league. I just don’t see him becoming an all-star anytime soon.

Note: Kyle Anderson Sr. tells Hoops Rumors that he was misquoted in the USA Today article linked in the third paragraph, and that he loved the multifaceted role that Hurley crafted for his son at St. Anthony. Anderson Sr. said he “never once had a complaint” with his son’s high school coach.

Draft Notes: Dekker, Daniels, Kaminsky

Wisconsin lost a nail-biter to Kentucky last night. After the game, both Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky stated they would be returning to the Badgers next season, writes Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com. Dekker, who averaged 12.4 PPG and 6.1 RPG was rated a potential first round selection. The 7-foot Kaminsky averaged a team-high 14.1 PPG and 6.4 RPG. He is viewed as a second rounder by scouts.

More from the college ranks:

  • DeAndre Daniels‘ play in the NCAA Tournament has raised his draft stock, writes Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv. The UConn forward has taken himself from a possible 2015 second round pick to a potential first round selection this year, opines Zagoria.
  • UConn’s Shabazz Napier has had his draft stock enhanced by playing for Kevin Ollie, writes Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News. According to the article, one NBA GM said, “Ollie runs all NBA plays for him and that’s going to help Napier when he comes into the league.” Napier is seen as a late first-round pick, but his lack of size has some scouts worried about his ability to defend in the NBA.
  • This year’s draft class is receiving all the hype because of its strength in comparison to recent drafts, not because there are multiple franchise saviors amongst the possible selections, writes Jodie Valade of The Plain Dealer.

And-Ones: Oladipo, Rice, Daniels, Ollie

UConn is headed to the NCAA championship game under second-year head coach Kevin Ollie. Eric Pincus of The Los Angeles Times thinks that the Lakers should try and pry Ollie away from Connecticut to become their next head coach. Pincus believes Ollie would be a good fit, with the added bonus of being a potential draw for Kevin Durant down the road, since Durant has an affinity for Ollie since his time spent as an assistant with the Thunder. Here’s a roundup of the rest of the night’s notes:

  • The Wizards have recalled rookie Glen Rice Jr. from their D-League affiliate, per a team release. Rice has spent multiple stints with both the D-League and NBA clubs, and has averaged 2.9 points and 9.9 minutes played in 11 games with the Wizards.
  • An NBA scout tells Adam Zagoria that UConn’s DeAndre Daniels ought to declare for this summer’s draft (Twitter links). “He’s playing the best he’s ever played, he might as well go for it,” the scout said. “It elevates his draft stock. He is taking a big step on the biggest stage.”
  • The Magic could have Rookie of the Year candidate Victor Oladipo play on their summer league team in the coming months, coach Jacque Vaughn tells John Denton of Magic.com. While it’s unusual for a player as established as Oladipo to see summer league action, it is being considered as an option in case Orlando decides to continue experimenting with him as a point guard.
  • After going undrafted and spending time in the D-League, Carlon Brown has improved his game overseas, leading the Israeli league in scoring. Brown tells Yannis Koutroupis of Basketball Insiders that the path he hopes will lead to an NBA opportunity has been worth it. “Going from college to the D-League to here has definitely been a learning experience, a humbling experience, gratifying to know that my patience and my hard work has paid off,” says Brown. “For me as a person it just lets me know that I’m headed in the right direction, that if I really put my mind to it like I did this summer to change my ways and habits that I can improve and I can dramatically improve my stats and be a better player. Hopefully I can continue to do that.”