2014 NBA Draft

Noah Vonleh To Enter Draft

Indiana University freshman Noah Vonleh will enter this year’s draft, as he tells Gary Parrish of CBSSports.com. The big man is a “guaranteed” lottery pick, sources inform Parrish, and Vonleh has heard that he’s going anywhere between the fourth and 12th picks.

The 6’10” Vonleh played center for the Hoosiers, but he projects as either a power forward or a center in the NBA, according to Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress, who pegs him as the seventh-best prospect in this year’s draft class. Chad Ford of ESPN.com lists Vonleh as a power forward and has him at No. 8 in his rankings.

Vonleh and the Hoosiers fell short of the NCAA tournament, finishing 17-15 a year after losing Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, both of whom were top-four picks in the 2013 draft. Vonleh is just 18 years old and won’t turn 19 until August.

Dario Saric To Sign In Europe

One of the top international prospects in the 2014 draft may take himself out of NBA consideration for multiple years.  While Dario Saric hasn’t officially announced anything, multiple sources tell Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req’d) that he has an agreement in principle with Efes Pilson that will pay him $8.27MM over the next three years.

There’s no word yet on what the NBA buyout clause in that contract looks like, Ford adds, but a deal like that would mean the forward won’t be able to come to the NBA next season.  Sources also say it’s highly unlikely he’ll even declare for this year’s draft.  Ford previously indicated that Saric’s stock could suffer since some clubs fear that his situation could resemble Nikola Mirotic‘s.  While Mirotic has serious upside, the Bulls have waited on him for the past three years, meaning he’s no longer subject to the rookie scale and can demand higher salaries to join the team this summer.

The 19-year-old is currently projected to the No. 9 overall pick in the 2014 draft by DraftExpress. In the same piece, Ford notes that West Virginia point guard Juwan Staten has officially declared for the draft. Staten is outside the top 100 prospects at DraftExpress, and Ford calls him a second-round pick, at best. The ESPN.com scribe expects Staten will withdraw from the draft and return to the Mountaineers.

And-Ones: Barkley, Draft, Boeheim

In an article by Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv, Charles Barkley opined that this year’s freshman stars will struggle in the NBA. Barkley has long been in favor of players staying in college for a minimum of two years. Barkley was quoted as saying, “I want these kids to stay in school longer because the NBA is as worse as it’s ever been. It’s not good basketball. It’s frustrating for me to watch. These kids aren’t physically or emotionally ready to come and play against grown men. You look at the last two days. We’ve had on paper Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins, they’re supposed to be 1-2, 3 at the latest, they didn’t have very good games. And it’s just one game but if they’re going to struggle against Mercer and Stanford, they’re really going to struggle against grown men.

More from around the league:

  • In a separate article, Zagoria also notes that Jim Boeheim said that none of this year’s freshman are worth tanking for. Boeheim expanded on that by saying, “There’s no player that’s out there on the horizon that’s a Tim Duncan or a LeBron James. I’ve seen all these guys play. I think they’re very talented players. They’re not that kind of player. They’re not transcendent players that are gonna make your franchise into a 10-12-15-year winning franchise because you’re there. I don’t see that.”
  • Peter May of Sheridan Hoops analyzes the futures of the Lakers, Knicks, Sixers, and Celtics, and the probabilities of each making a quick turnaround.
  • The NCAA tournament plays a big part in NBA scouts making draft assessments. How a player handles the pressure cooker of the one-and-done format shows just as much as analytics in some cases. The crew at Basketball Insiders takes a look at which NBA prospect has the most riding on his tournament performance.
  • Chad Ford of ESPN.com, in an Insider-only piece, has the latest updates on which underclassmen are declaring for this year’s NBA draft.

Prospect Profile: Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon entered this season at Arizona as one of the higher profile freshman in this year’s crop. Though he slipped out of the can’t-miss prospect category early in the season, it hasn’t changed the fact that he is an intriguing athletic talent, and an almost assured lottery pick. Gordon has been referred to as a “video-game” athlete capable of making plays that nobody else can, a quality that hints at him becoming a potential future star in the NBA. He currently is ranked No. 7 on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big board, and is sitting at No. 8 in the latest mock draft by Draft Express, and No. 19 in NBA Draft.net‘s. This illustrates just how divisive his potential is amongst scouts.

Gordon, in 34 games, has averaged 12.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.9 BPG in 30.9 minutes per contest, and hasn’t “wowed” scouts like many expected. He was promised to play the small forward position this season by coach Sean Miller and has spent most of his time there. The problem is that Gordon hasn’t shown he can really shoot the ball from deep effectively. His slash line is .481/.308/.435. Some NBA scouts have pegged him as one of those “dreaded tweeners.” Gordon has displayed the ability to handle the ball often and pass well, which can make him effective in the right system.

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, this 18 year-old has the height and athleticism to play power forward, but scouts question if he possesses the strength to do it successfully for long stretches, and over 82 games. Some have likened him to last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett. Like Bennett, Gordon is a combo forward, which is a polite way of saying that he lacks a natural position. He doesn’t have a traditional small-forward’s body or game, and isn’t the interior power player you typically get with NBA 4s.

Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report points out that not many recent first-round combo forwards have been successful—or at least they haven’t made a positive impression early on. He cites Bennett, Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams, combo forwards who went No. 2 in their respective drafts, or even Thomas Robinson, a No. 5 pick, as examples of these types of players that have struggled to break through the barrier and find success in the NBA.

Offensively, Gordon has struggled this season. According to Matt Moore of CBSSports.com, Gordon is in the 12th percentile for jump shots, 15th percentile in post-up situations, and 13th percentile in offensive putbacks. That last category is the biggest concern, opines Moore. You can improve your jump shot and post game with hard work and coaching. But someone with Gordon’s wingspan and athleticism should be producing more points on putbacks. Much of what he seems to struggle with is how short his jumps are on both inside attempts and offensive rebounds, based on little to no power being spent from this legs, according to the article. Moore does believe that can be corrected through mechanics or building up core and leg muscle in the NBA.

Gordon is a decent spot-up shooter, as his three-point percentage in a small number of attempts indicates, but his value in pick-and-roll situations is limited to roll-only offense, opines Peter Bukowski of SI.com. He hasn’t demonstrated the shooting skill to be effective in pick-and-pop situations, the article observes. Gordon is actually a solid dribble-drive player, but teams don’t have to play him for the shot, so they can give him space while not biting on any shot fakes. When he gets into the paint though, Gordon is a beast. He can elevate and dunk over defenders, or simply lay it in, as he is a strong finisher. He has phenomenal body control that allows him to use his great length and 40-plus vertical in traffic to score. In this regard he has been compared to Blake Griffin, though he doesn’t have Griffin’s overpowering strength. It also doesn’t help Gordon’s overall production that he is a terrible free throw shooter.

He has been excellent defensively, ranking No. 2 in the Pac-12 in defensive wins shares (3.0), which estimates the number of wins a player contributes to his team due to defense. With quick feet and long arms, defense might actually carry over as a strength for Gordon, something few college combo forwards can make a claim to in the NBA, according to the article by Wasserman. Draft Express’ Mike Schmitz said of Gordon, “He gives you so many things that coaches love. I think he might be the most versatile defenders in the country. His feet are so quick. He works really hard to contest shots, he covers so much ground. He’s just a smart, intelligent kid. Defensively, he’ll be able to get on the floor right away.”

Arizona coach Sean Miller also weighed in, saying, “I’ve never had such a young player be so locked in and capable on the defensive end. While it’s hard to argue that an NBA should draft a lockdown defender so high in such a loaded draft, the thought is Gordon’s offensive skillset has only scratched the surface. He guards multiple players each game. In Aaron’s case, he plays the low post, against a post player, and then he turns around and guards perimeter players. I can say that I don’t think any that I’ve coached have been successful as a freshman doing that.

Aaron Gordon is an intriguing NBA prospect, but is also a big risk based on not having a well-defined NBA position. He doesn’t have the offensive game yet to be a starting small forward, and isn’t strong enough to be an every-game power forward. Athletically he compares favorably with Griffin and Kenneth Faried, but lacks their strength and bulk. Gordon is still a teenager, and he has a sturdy frame, so he should be able to add muscle. But if it affects his overall athleticism, it would produce diminishing returns. He has a wealth of upside, but he’s an extremely risky top ten pick in such a deep draft. In my opinion, Gordon could benefit greatly from another year in school, but the lure of the NBA will be too tempting for him. Despite all his flaws, I still see him being taken in the 7-12 range.

Draft Notes: Embiid, Ennis, Parker

While fellow freshman Andrew Wiggins will leave after the season, Kansas teammate Joel Embiid tells Jeff Goodman of ESPN that he will talk to the Jayhawks coaching staff and also his mentor, fellow Cameroon native and NBA player Luc Mbah a Moute, before making a final decision concerning his NBA future.  “I’m not worried about that right now,” Embiid said, just moments after watching KU get knocked out of the NCAA tournament with a loss to Stanford.  Here’s the latest draft news..

  • When asked whether they’ll stay another year, Syracuse stars Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant said they haven’t thought about it yet and have no timetable on a decision, tweets Donna Ditota of The Post-Standard.
  • Matt Moore of CBSSports.com looks at how Mercer’s upset of Duke could affect prospects Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood.
  • Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter) is surprised that there isn’t more draft buzz surrounding Michigan Star Glenn Robinson III.  One NBA scout told him he’d be a solid late first-round pick.
  • The Cavs will have to move up in the order to get a franchise player in the draft, writes Bob Finnan of the News-Herald.  However, even at their likely draft position (later in the lottery), they could still have guys like Aaron Gordon, Noah Vonleh, and Marcus Smart to choose from.
  • The Sixers‘ misery today might pay off down the line, writes Maria Panaritis of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Prospect Profile: Julius Randle

Julius Randle has looked like a man amongst boys during much of his first season at Kentucky. While he didn’t enter his freshman year with quite the same hype that surrounded Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker, Randle nevertheless was seen as a potential top three pick in the upcoming 2014 NBA draft. Randle has had a strong, but inconsistent season, and though he is still projected as an early lottery pick, scouts are concerned he might not have a defined position in the NBA. Randle is currently ranked No. 5 on Chad Ford of ESPN‘s Big Board, Draft Express has him being take fourth in their latest mock draft, and NBA Draft.net has him slotted in at No. 7 overall.

On a talented Kentucky team Randle was more often than not their best player on the floor. His numbers on the season were strong. In 32 games he averaged 15.1 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, and 0.8 BPG in 30.7 minutes per game. His slash line is .504/.188/.702. Good numbers, but not as dominant as some thought he would be upon entering college.

Randle’s value is as an offensive player, though his offensive game at the NCAA level is mostly considered “bully ball”. He is stronger than most of his college peers and can physically dominate them when trying to put the ball in the basket. His superior strength works against most teams, but it can also lead to forced shots and turnovers. Randle is actually coughing it up 3.2 times a game, an awfully high number for a big man. This is mainly because he tends to recklessly attack defenses by trying to plow his way through them. He uses his natural left hand and can take any contact when hit to finish, but isn’t as confident when using his right.

One of the biggest complaints against Randle’s offensive game is that he doesn’t play on the box as much as he should, and is far too perimeter oriented. He needs to focus more on refining his post game which will be what will make or break him as a pro. Randle settles for too many jumpers at times instead of imposing his will inside. He’s shown enough ability on the block however to suggest he will continue to improve his game down there. He reminds me of Derrick Coleman when he first came into the league in this regard. Randle’s jump shot isn’t ugly by any means, and looks like it should improve with time, but it just might be his biggest weakness offensively. He has no problem taking his man off the dribble when using a pump fake, but if his outside shot ever becomes a reliable weapon, Randle could become a scoring star.

Randle hasn’t made much of an impact on the defensive end, which can probably be attributed to a combination of short arms and below-average awareness. Whether Randle ever evolves into a true 4 or becomes a combo forward like Lamar Odom, defense does not project as one of his strengths at the next level. Randle may have some trouble contesting the big leapers and towering big men in the NBA. He’s not an above the rim type player, and relies on strength more than athleticism when defending. Randle averaged 0.5 SPG and 0.8 BPG, which is poor production for a big man. Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (insider subscription required) has found that block and steal rates in college are important tools when projecting big men prospects.

One major physical trait that is the most talked about as a negative regarding Randle is his wingspan. He has been called a “T-Rex” thanks to his big body and short arms. He has a 6’11” wingspan, per Draft Express, which is enormous in most contexts, but not the “super-sized world” of the NBA. When matched up against the best power forwards in the league, he’s going to have a significant length disadvantage, a problem that could impact his game on both sides of the ball. According to Jonathan Tjarks of SB Nation, in almost any basketball context, having longer arms than your opponent is helpful. Athletes with longer arms can shoot over the top of defenders more effectively. On defense, they can play a step farther back and still contest shots, and will also have an easier time reaching for rebounds and getting hands in passing lanes. The closer you get to the basket, where there is less room to maneuver, the more important this becomes.

The final verdict on Randle is that he is an extremely unique prospect due to his combination of size (6’9″ 240 pounds), strength, scoring instincts and ball-handling skills. It’s rare to find players with his skill-set, at any level of competition, which makes him an intriguing draft candidate. He has a lot of work to do, on the defensive end in particular, but he’s clearly a top-notch prospect for the NBA. His ceiling as a pro seems to compare favorably with Zach Randolph‘s, which would make him worthy of a top ten selection in the upcoming draft. His final ranking will depend on which underclassmen declare for the draft, as well as how his pre-draft workouts fare in assuaging teams worrying about his shorter wingspan. My prediction is he goes within the top five picks.

Draft Notes: Age Limit, Ennis, Hood

One reason the NBA would want to increase the draft’s age limit to 20 would be to give teams more control of rare superstar talents like LeBron James, writes Tim Kawakami of Bay Area News Group. Kawakami notes that the one-and-done college players wouldn’t disappear with the changed limit, and that 19-year-old draftees are often can’t-miss prospects that teams would rather have under contract a year later into their prime. Here’s more regarding the draft:

  • Tyler Ennis came up short in trying to help Syracuse advance in the NCAA tournament, and the freshman says he hasn’t thought about his decision regarding the draft yet. A veteran NBA scout tells Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that Ennis is a smart, clutch talent who will need to adjust on defense. Ennis is a potential lottery pick.
  • LaQuinton Ross is leaning toward declaring for this year’s draft per another Zagoria source, and could announce his decision Monday. Ross is projected to be a second round selection in DraftExpress’s latest mock draft.
  • Zagoria writes that Rodney Hood is also leaning toward coming out in the same piece. Hood was ranked 13th in Chad Ford’s most recent ESPN Insider mock draft, and 16th at DraftExpress.

Draft Rumors: UCLA, Robinson III, Craft

Coach Steve Alford says NBA scouts have attended 88 of 100 UCLA practices this year, per Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv tweets that the scouts would presumably be interested in projected first-round picks Kyle Anderson and Zach LaVine, along with Jordan Adams, who is projected as a second round selection. Here’s a roundup of draft rumors:

  • An NBA scout tells Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports that Michigan’s Glenn Robinson III is a solid late first round pick (Twitter link).
  • Few front office executives expect Ohio State’s Aaron Craft to be drafted, according to Bob Finnan of The Morning Journal.
  • Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim tells Zagoria that college players base their decision to enter the draft solely on their expected draft position, not how they performed in the NCAA tournament. “I’m not going to be specific about anybody but my experience is guys look and if they see they fall where they’re favorable [they leave]…If you go 15th in the draft, you’re nothing. You might be out of the league in two years,” said Boeheim. “It used to be a first-round draft pick you had a chance. That’s nothing. Those guys are out of the league. Half the guys taken in the first round the last three years are not even in the league. You gotta be in the top seven, eight, 10 picks to make sure you’re going to be playing in the NBA.”
  • Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress points out that Boeheim’s estimates are pretty far off (Twitter links). Only 7% of first round picks from the last three years are out of the league today, and the No. 15 pick specifically has produced a good number of high-impact players in recent years.

Draft Notes: Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Ross

Kansas center Joel Embiid won’t be playing against Stanford tomorrow, but Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated doesn’t think his absence should have a major impact on his draft stock (Twitter link). The latest mock draft from DraftExpress has Embiid going second overall. Here’s a look at some more news related to the draft:

  • Despite yesterday’s crushing loss to Mercer, Jabari Parker is still expected to enter his name into June’s draft, one executive tells Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog. The same executive says he would take Parker at third overall, behind the Kansas duo of Embiid and Andrew Wiggins. If Embiid’s back proves to be an issue, however, he’d take Parker second behind Wiggins.
  • Ohio State’s LaQuinton Ross still hasn’t made a decision on whether or not he’ll enter the draft, reveals Zagoria. One scout tells Zagoria that Ross would be well advised to stay in school and work to improve his game. Ross would figure to be a mid-second-round pick this June.
  • University of Arizona coach Sean Miller labeled Weber State forward Joel Bolomboy as an NBA prospect, tweets Steve Luhm of the Salt Lake Tribune. Bolomboy average 8.7 points and 11 rebounds per game in 2013/14.
  • Yannis Koutroupis of Basketball Insiders gives his take on how the tournament has affected the top prospects’ draft stocks. Adreian Payne and T.J. Warren are two players who Koutroupis thinks have really benefited themselves from good performances in the early rounds of the tourney.

And-Ones: Donovan, Union, Heat, Kidd

Florida Gators coach Billy Donovan has enjoyed great success at the college level. He’s on the way to his fourth consecutive Sweet Sixteen appearance in the NCAA tournament, but he isn’t ruling out a potential jump to the NBA one day, revealed an Associated Press report (via ESPN.com). Donovan accepted a head coaching position for the Magic in 2007, but changed his mind shortly after and returned to continue coaching Florida. Here’s more from around the NBA:

  • Roughly two dozen players and agents would like to see the NBA player’s union push back their selection of a new executive director to July, passes along Ric Bucher of Bleacher Report. We had previously heard that David White and Michele Roberts were the two finalists for the role, but the opposing group wants the candidates to be reconsidered, possibly widening the fielding by “starting from scratch.”
  • Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel thinks the Heat would be wise to alter their draft strategy in light of the impending enforcement of the repeater tax. It’s important to secure young talent at the rookie-scale price rather than relying on expensive free agent contracts to build a team, says Winderman.
  • Nikola Pekovic won’t appear in 70 or more games this year, so he won’t receive the bonus he would have drawn for doing so, notes Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com (on Twitter). The Wolves signed Pekovic to a five-year, $60MM deal last summer that had up to $8MM in potential incentives.
  • Nets GM Billy King doesn’t think Jason Kidd is getting the credit he deserves for turning Brooklyn into a winning team, writes Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News. King notes Kidd was receiving flak when his club was struggling, but few people credit the rookie coach for his instrumental role in their recent success.
  • The report that the Nets are prioritizing a signing for Shaun Livingston next summer might mean the team is confident they’ll re-sign Paul Pierce, tweets Bondy. Another tweet from Bondy reiterates that King has not offered Pierce an extension and hasn’t discussed next season with Kevin Garnett.
  • Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times runs down how the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament affected the draft stocks of many of the best college players. Jabari Parker and Marcus Smart were two top prospects who saw an early exit from the tourney yesterday.