2015 NBA Draft

The Contract Cost Of Each Lottery Pick

Stretch your imagination for a moment to envision the Thunder winning the lottery tonight, as they have only a slim 0.5% chance of doing. The first thought in the minds of GM Sam Presti and other Oklahoma City higher-ups will surely be one of elation. The second thought may force them to swallow hard.

The rookie scale contract for the No. 1 overall pick this year will be worth more than $25.7MM over its four-year span if his team pays him 120% of the rookie scale amount, as is almost certain to happen. That’s about $16.1MM more than the approximately $9.6MM the rookie deal for the 14th overall pick will likely be worth. Naturally, that would be water under the bridge if the top pick turns out to be a superstar, but it seems that for every Anthony Davis, there’s an Anthony Bennett. The costs increase with each rung up the lottery ladder, and while most teams would surely celebrate a leap in draft position tonight, a higher pick carries consequences, particularly for teams like the Thunder, who already seem destined to pay the tax next season.

Below is a look at each lottery pick and the cost of the rookie scale contract associated with it, assuming that the team will pay the standard 120% of the scale amounts. Only the first two seasons of these deals are guaranteed, but it would be quite surprising if a team declined either its third or fourth year team option on its contract with a lottery pick.

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For more on the lottery, check out each team’s odds for each pick, and read our Hoops Rumors Glossary entry to see how the lottery works.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Draft Notes: Hernangomez, Cauley-Stein, Holmes

Today’s the big day for teams in the lottery, as the drawing takes place tonight. Check out the odds that each team ends up in each position, and read our Hoops Rumors Glossary item on the lottery for a glimpse at how it works. As we wait to find out who wins, here’s the latest on the draft:

  • Overseas draft entrant Guillermo Hernangomez, also known as Willy Hernangomez, is likely to play for Real Madrid in his native Spain next season, according to the Spanish outlet Marca (translation via Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia). The 6’11” center is the No. 45 prospect in this year’s draft as Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks them, and he’s No. 49 with Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress. He can withdraw from the draft by June 15th or stay in and either become a draft-and-stash selection or go undrafted.
  • Willie Cauley-Stein took an unusual path, staying at Kentucky for three years. A lottery prospect this year, he feels the extra college experience gave him a leg up, as he tells Joel Brigham of Basketball Insiders“[Playing more than one year there] helped me a lot mentally,” Cauley-Stein said. “I’m now one of the older dudes in this draft, which is cool. I went through a lot at Kentucky, so staying there another year didn’t do anything but make it better for me to enter the draft now.” Dana Gauruder of Hoops Rumors profiled the center on Monday.
  • Richaun Holmes wasn’t on the NBA radar as recently as six weeks weeks ago, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com writes in an Insider-only piece, but his stock has risen fast, and Ford believes he did enough at the combine last week to get drafted. The power forward from Bowling Green spoke with Zach Links of Hoops Rumors a few weeks ago.
  • Ford, in the same piece, lists former Kentucky combo guard Andrew Harrison as a prospect who helped his cause at the combine and twin Aaron Harrison, a shooting guard, as one whose stock fell. John Gonzalez of CSNPhilly.com seconds the notion that Andrew Harrison impressed at the combine amid his insights from the event.

St. John’s Phil Greene Gunning For NBA

If you looked only at his box scores, you would never know that Phil Greene played hurt for the bulk of his four-year career at St. John’s.  His teammates, however, knew what he was dealing with.  Not wanting to let his locker room down, Greene refused to sit out and heal up, choosing instead to battle through the pain. True to his demeanor, Greene didn’t make a lot of noise about his injuries either.

I call him the quiet assassin,” former St. John’s coach Steve Lavin said between sips of coffee at a cafe in lower Manhattan. “That’s because he plays within the framework of our schemes and, yet, he had a propensity to step up in crunch time. He made game changing plays, whether it was dagger three-point shots, driving to the basket, or outside shots.”

The guard gave those kinds of performances throughout his tenure in New York, but he really showed what he could do in his senior season when he was 100% healthy.  Up until that point, Greene was like a live action Operation board.  First, the guard hurt his shooting wrist in his freshman year. Then, as a sophomore, he suffered a hip labrum tear.  Prior to his junior year, Greene went under the knife to fix that tear, but he admits that he rushed himself back to action a little too fast.

More than once, Lavin went to Greene and encouraged him to consider a taking a medical redshirt year. The coach also involved Greene’s parents in the conversation, but the guard couldn’t bear to spend a season on the sidelines. Ultimately, Lavin left the decision in Greene’s hands, and he decided to play through the pain.

When asked, Greene wasn’t sure how to quantify how banged up he was, but he knows he was well under 100% for his first three Red Storm seasons.  In hindsight, Greene wishes that he wouldn’t have tried to play the hero.  The guard might have been playing at MSG, but no one expected him to put on a Willis Reed impersonation.

Of course, I probably would have taken some time off if I could have done it over again. I should have had my surgery done sophomore year and come back 100%,” Greene explained. “But, now, I’m 100%. I haven’t had a single thing bother me all year long and I’m ready for what’s ahead of me.

Even with his setbacks in those three years, Greene still managed to be one of the top contributors on a talented St. John’s team. In his senior campaign, Greene got to show the world what he’s truly capable of when healthy. The 22-year-old went out on a high note, averaging 12.9 PPG with a 39.4% rate of success beyond the arc.  He was even stronger in conference play, leading the Big East in intra-conference three-point percentage (45.8%) with 14.5 PPG against Big East foes.

Greene had too many big games to count in his last collegiate season, but Lavin and the guard produced the same two answers when asked to list his very best performances. One came against Syracuse when he led the charge on a late game 17-2 run to help St. John’s down the Orange at the Carrier Dome for the first time in 16 years. The other was Greene’s final regular season college game at MSG, when he dropped 26 points on rival Georgetown.

We hate Georgetown. We hate them. We don’t like them at all,” said Greene, not wanting to leave any ambiguity on the subject. “So, to be at the Garden for my last game and put up 26 points, it was an amazing night.”

Lavin, too, fondly remembers that game.

Georgetown beat us bad the last time, so we absolutely smashed them there,” the coach said.

With brilliant scoring performances, late game heroics, and a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance, Greene closed out his St. John’s career in style. And, it turns out, NBA teams have taken notice. According to agent Keith Kreiter, Greene has already secured multiple workout invitations and a couple of teams are already showing intense interest in him. As of today, Greene is not featured on ESPN’s or DraftExpress’ mock drafts, but come June, he could very well find a place on the only big board that really counts.

Lavin describes Greene as a player who boasts shot making as his “greatest strength,” but also a player with a very well-rounded skill set.  In his senior year, he improved upon his ability to attack the basket and draw fouls, which made him even more dangerous on the offensive end. The Chicago native is also a keen ball distributor and Lavin cites his low assist-to-turnover ratio as one of his most impressive stats. In a league where the ability of a point guard to shoot and score is more important than ever, Lavin sees a bright future for his former pupil.

He’s fundamentally a very solid point guard, sure, but to me he’s a guard, period. You can put him on the floor and he can pass, catch, handle the ball, and he can create his own shot. One of his greatest strengths is his ability to create his own shot through footwork and his ball handling,” Lavin said.  “In the NBA, you’re sometimes isolated with not a lot of room, so your ability to create separation from a defender and make shots is valuable.  Phil has shown that he can do that.”

Lavin has also been impressed by Greene’s ability to heat up and take over a game.  The coach explained that on several occasions, the guard has given St. John’s scoring stretches of 9 or 10 points at a critical juncture of the game and he does it without forcing offense.

You could say he’s like a smaller Sleepy Floyd,” Lavin said when asked for an NBA comparison.  “Sleepy might have a couple of inches on Phil, but in terms of the ability to knock down shots from a distance and beating opponents off the bounce and nailing mid-range shots, that’s what Phil can do.

Greene can knock down shots from the outside, but he is also a gifted dunker.  One of his latest highlight reel slams had him throwing down a picture perfect alley-oop off a bounce pass from teammate D’Angelo Harrison.  The youngster’s primary focus is obviously on contributing in the NBA, but he also has a secondary goal on his check list.

I’ve thought about being in the dunk contest,” Greene said. “I think I could win it.

Atlantic Notes: Russell, Sixers, Nets

D’Angelo Russell could wind up as a top-two pick if the Knicks or Sixers are that position after the results of the draft lottery on Tuesday, according to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. While it’s widely assumed that Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor will go 1-2 in the draft, there was some speculation by rival executives at the draft combine that Philadelphia or New York may opt instead to transform to its backcourt with the Ohio State guard, Berger reports.

In other news around the Atlantic Division:

  • Michael Qualls (Arkansas), Keifer Sykes (Wisconsin-Green Bay), Ryan Boatright (Connecticut) and Terry Rozier (Louisville) are scheduled to work out with the Sixers on Tuesday, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Philadelphia brought in Julian Washburn (Texas-El Paso), Seth Tuttle (Northern Iowa), Terran Petteway (Nebraska), Marcus Thornton (Georgia), Stanton Kidd (Colorado State), Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Shannon Scott (Ohio State) for workouts on Monday, Pompey adds.
  • Mike Conley and Kevin Love, if he does not opt out this summer, are potential free agent targets for the Nets in 2016, according to NetsDaily.com. The Nets will undergo many changes this offseason as they try to get under the luxury tax but they need to remain a playoff-caliber team to attract future free agents, the story adds.
  • A shakeup of Dwane Casey’s staff is underway as the Raptors parted with assistants Bill Bayno and Tom Sterner today, sources told Berger (Twitter links).

Pistons Rumors: Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles

Kentucky shooting guard Devin Booker grew up as a Pistons fan and would relish the chance to play for them, Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press reports. Booker was raised in Grand Rapids, Mich., which is approximately two hours from Detroit. It’s unlikely he will get his wish since the Pistons hold the No. 8 spot in the draft, pending the lottery results, and Booker projects as a late lottery selection. He’s currently ranked No. 13 on Chad Ford’s ESPN Insider Big Board and No. 15 on Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress prospect list. The team has other pressing needs, since they already have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jodie Meeks sharing minutes at that spot.

In other draft news concerning the Pistons:

  • Frank Kaminsky interviewed with the team during the draft combine as it tries to determine whether he could replace power forward and unrestricted free agent Greg Monroe, according to David Mayo of MLive.com. Kaminsky termed the Pistons’ interview “laid back” and asked how he could fit into their system, Mayo continues. Kaminsky, ranked No. 14 by Ford and No. 10 by Givony, is a better outside shooter than Monroe and that enhances his appeal, Mayo adds.
  • Kaminsky is just one of the big men on the Pistons’ radar, Terry Foster of the Detroit News reports. They are also looking at Trey Lyles and Myles Turner and could trade up for Kristaps Porzingis to fulfill their desire for a power forward that can stretch the floor, Foster adds.
  • President of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy should emulate his predecessor, Joe Dumars, when it comes to evaluating lottery picks, Ellis examines in a separate piece. Dumars recovered from his disastrous decision to select Darko Milicic with the No. 2 overall pick in 2003 and drafted Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Brandon Knight and Caldwell-Pope with his lottery picks in recent years, though he denied the new regime a lottery pick last year when it had to be shipped to the Hornets to fulfill a prior trade obligation, Ellis continues. Van Gundy and his staff get their first chance to make a lottery selection next month.

Prospect Profile: Willie Cauley-Stein

Willie Cauley-Stein brings some clarity to a process normally based upon on projections and expectations, at least on one end of the basketball court. There’s no dispute or concern about Cauley-Stein’s ability to be a defensive impact player in the NBA. He’s got all the tools and physical gifts to become one of the league’s premier defenders. That’s why the 7-footer is ranked as the No. 2 center in the draft behind Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and a virtual lock to be selected in the Top 10. He’s currently rated No. 8 on Chad Ford’s ESPN Insider Big Board, while Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress slots him at No. 6 overall.

Willie Cauley-Stein

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

The University of Kentucky product can not only defend other big men, he can handle wing players because of his quickness and length. He’s also one of the very few big men who can switch out on a point guard without that situation being an obvious mismatch. With most NBA teams relying heavily on pick-and-rolls to create space and quality looks, Cauley-Stein can switch, hedge and recover on those plays with aplomb, which will often force the offense to take low-percentage shots with the shot clock winding down.

He can also create turnovers and provide rim protection. He led the Wildcats in steals in both his sophomore and junior seasons and recorded 106 blocks during his sophomore campaign. That figure dropped to 67 last season, partially due to Kentucky’s ability to seal off the paint and also because Cauley-Stein had another shotblocker, Karl Anthony-Towns, patrolling the lane alongside him. With his long arms and ability to cover so much ground, Cauley-Stein should have no trouble altering and blocking shots in situations where he’s a help defender. Add up those attributes and it’s no wonder he’s already being compared to the likes of DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Andre Drummond as a defensive force.

If there are any issues regarding Cauley-Stein defensively, it would be his frame and defensive rebounding. His needs to get stronger to compete physically with other post players on a nightly basis, though that can be said for virtually any big man entering the NBA. A slightly bigger concern is whether Cauley-Stein truly likes to mix it up underneath. As Givony points out, he can be outworked in the paint at times and he doesn’t consistently establish good box-out position. That explains why his defensive rebounding rate was a relatively modest 6.6 per 40 minutes in college.

There were no surprises regarding Cauley-Stein’s physical attributes at the draft combine. He measured a tad over 6’11” without shoes and 7’0” wearing them. His wingspan was an impressive 7’3” and he came to Chicago in excellent condition with a body fat content of 6.3%.

If Cauley-Stein had any semblance of an offensive game, he could have been the top pick in the draft. But that’s where the uncertainty regarding Cauley-Stein kicks in. The word raw is frequently mentioned by draft experts, scouts and front-office personnel when the subject of his offensive game is brought up. His contributions on that end mainly consist of dunks and layups created by guard penetration, offensive rebounds and transition opportunities. He averaged 8.9 points last season in the Wildcats’ balanced attack.

Kentucky didn’t look for Cauley-Stein to score on postups and midrange shots. As a result, he failed to develop any signature moves or carve out any sweet spots where defenders had to respect him. He made just one-third of his two-point jump shots in his junior year.
Without getting frequent touches, Cauley-Stein has not developed a knack for passing out of the post or finding open shooters and cutters. He averaged less than one assist per game during his three college seasons.

One area where he did show steady improvement was his free throw shooting. He went from a brutal 37.2% as a freshman to 48.2% the next year to 61.7% last season. Even if he only improves marginally as a foul shooter as a pro, that will be good enough to discourage opponents from intentionally fouling him.

Another knock against Cauley-Stein is his motor. He has often been criticized for looking disinterested at times and taking plays off, though he played with more intensity as his college career unfolded. The lack of focus at times has many scouts wondering if Cauley-Stein has a love for the game.

As an unnamed GM told NBA.com’s Scott Howard-Cooper, Cauley-Stein “leaves you wanting. You see the talent there, but you always think that there’s more he can give.”

Cauley-Stein has a difficult time understanding what all the fuss on this issue.

“If I didn’t love it, I wouldn’t put my body on the line, I wouldn’t run the way I do, I wouldn’t jump the way I do,” he told Scott-Cooper. “I’d be scared to do those things if I didn’t love the game. It just doesn’t make sense to me the way I play that I don’t love the game.”

There’s enough love over Cauley-Stein’s defensive prowess to quell most of the concerns about his shortcomings, perceived or otherwise. He should have a long NBA career, even if he settles for simply being a defensive stopper. Depending on team needs and draft-day trades, Cauley-Stein could even wind up moving into the top five. That’s the value of offering clarity in a sea of uncertainty.

Draft Notes: Upshaw, Russell, Payne, Young

Several NBA executives told Chris Mannix of SI.com they wouldn’t dare draft Robert Upshaw in the first-round, leading Mannix to conclude that it’s unlikely that any team guarantees the troubled center any salary. Two seasons of guaranteed salary come with the rookie scale contracts that go to first-round picks. People from three different teams with lottery picks told A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com that Upshaw would be a certain lottery pick if not for his troubles in the past, which have involved drugs, but none of those teams are willing to draft him that highly, Blakely adds. Upshaw, who tells Blakely that he’s working with Bill Walton, among other mentors, is 29th in Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress rankings but 38th with Chad Ford of ESPN.com. Here’s more on the draft, which takes place just a week and a month from tonight:

  • Multiple executives told Mannix for the same piece that they think D’Angelo Russell plans to accept workout invitations only from the teams that hold the top three picks. Mannix also cites multiple execs who told him that they believe former Kentucky sharpshooter Devin Booker will go within the top 10 picks.
  • Cameron Payne, who spoke with Zach Links of Hoops Rumors, is quickly lifting his stock, having become a strong candidate for the lottery, according to Mannix. Rakeem Christmas, J.P. Tokoto and Jordan Mickey were standouts in the five-on-five drills at last week’s combine, Mannix adds.
  • Jabari Young of CSNNW.com adds the Blazers to the list of the teams that have interviewed Oregon shooting guard Joseph Young, and he’ll also be working out with Portland, as the CSNNW.com scribe has reported. Still, Young the writer suggests it’s nonetheless unlikely that the Blazers will end up drafting Young the player.

And-Ones: Thibodeau, Bulls, Draft

If coach Tom Thibodeau is let go by the Bulls, the Magic would be willing to pay Thibodeau anywhere from $7MM to $9MM annually, reports The Journal Times’ Gery Woelfel, who cited two league sources. The Magic have not started formal interviews yet for their coaching vacancy. Woelfel reported earlier this month that the Magic’s top choice is seemingly Thibodeau. Thibodeau, 57, has led the Bulls to five straight playoff appearances. He has two years left on his contract with the team. Despite that, it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that Thibodeau will be coaching elsewhere because of a strained relationship with Chicago’s management. The Pelicans have been rumored as a favorite to land Thibodeau’s services, should he be let go by the Bulls.

Here’s more from around the basketball world:

  • Speaking of the Bulls, they are counting on the backcourt duo of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler to lead them toward another playoff run next season, K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune writes. This summer will mark Rose’s first offseason in which he’s not rehabilitating or preparing to return from a knee injury since 2011 and the star guard is under contract for two more seasons, as Johnson notes. The Bulls will offer Butler, who will be a restricted free agent, a maximum contract this offseason, Johnson adds.
  • One NBA general manager told The Journal Times’ Gery Woelfel that Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky could go as high as six in the draft. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks Kaminsky No. 10, but he is the No. 14 overall player according to Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required).
  • NBA executives were left impressed with Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan following interviews with the draft prospect, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports tweets.
  • Kings coach George Karl is likely to add Nets assistant John Welch to his coaching staff, Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com tweets. Welch was on Karl’s staff with the Nuggets, and he specialized in player development.

Draft Notes: Russell, Okafor, Staten

When asked why a team should select him on June 25th, D’Angelo Russell had a simple answer for reporters.  “I’m the best player in the draft,” Russell said, as Henry Green of FOX Sports Ohio writes. Russell is expected to be a top-five pick, and many analysts have him as the No. 3 prospect in the 2015 draft class.  Of course, it remains to be seen whether he can jump Jahlil Okafor and Karl Anthony-Towns for the top spot.  Here’s today’s draft news..

  • Okafor skipped the official draft combine, but he found himself in the Chicago area on Friday night and worked out at Quest Gym, as Marc Berman of the New York Post writes.  One of the big knocks on Okafor is his conditioning, but trainer Rick Lewis says that the big man has shed 12 points of fat and his conditioning is improving every day.  The trainer, who might be a tad biased, also tells Berman that the Duke offensive system didn’t allow Okafor to showcase everything he can do.
  • West Virginia guard Juwan Staten is working out for the Sixers on Monday and roughly half the league is expected to work him out before the draft, reports Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter).  Staten is currently not in the top 100 rankings done by Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress but he is the No. 79 overall player according to Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required).
  • An NBA scout told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv (on Twitter) that LSU’s Jordan Mickey and Louisville’s Terry Rozier “really helped themselves” by playing 5-on-5 at the Combine.
  • Murray State guard Cameron Payne is finally getting the respect he deserves, Yannis Koutroupis of Basketball Insiders writes.  Payne also isn’t afraid to speak his mind.  Recently, an NBA exec asked him who shouldn’t be ranked ahead of him in this year’s class and he answered truthfully.  “Tyus Jones,” Payne said. “Just because he played on a great team. He had a lot of exposure through that team. He didn’t have to carry his team like I did, so I just felt I went through a lot of adversity and he had one of the best big men playing college basketball around him. He wasn’t a focal point.”  (Recently, Payne spoke with Hoops Rumors about a wide range of topics, including where he thinks he might land).

Central Notes: Pistons, Thompson, Hunter

The Cavs are doing everything possible to make sure that Kyrie Irving will be ready for Wednesday night against the Hawks, including giving him rest.  The point guard sat out of practice on Friday in an effort to heal up.

We sat Ky out and he’s going through a lot of treatment and we’re monitoring and just hoping that he progresses from here until game time,” coach David Blatt said, according to Tom Withers of The Associated Press. “We’re very much on top of this obviously and Ky is doing everything he possibly can to get well.”

Here’s a look at the Central Division..

  • Per the terms of the Ben Gordon deal, the Pistons sent their first-round choice to the Hornets last year. Considering the underwhelming rookie performance of the top-heavy 2014 draft class, that might have been for the best, Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press writes. Since the pick was only No. 1-protected for this draft, the Pistons likely would have lost it at Tuesday’s lottery if they had kept it last year.
  • Before the season started, many thought Tristan Thompson was making a big mistake in turning down a massive contract offer from the Cavs.  Now, it looks like his gamble will pay off, Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun writes.  Thompson could have chosen the safe route and accepted Cleveland’s offer, reported to be worth $13MM per year over four seasons.  Now, after a good season and filling in admirably for Kevin Love in the playoffs, he stands to get at least that much and maybe more.
  • Vince Hunter grew up watching the Pistons and he would relish the opportunity to return to play for his hometown team, Rod Beard of The Detroit News writes. “It would be a great opportunity for me to be in Detroit,” he said.  The UTEP guard averaged 14.9 points and 9.2 rebounds, shooting 53% from the field last season.