The 2019 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night in Chicago before Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.
As Tim Bontemps and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com outline, there’s a ton at stake in the 2019 lottery, as many of the teams involved could badly use a player like Zion Williamson or Ja Morant. The results could also have an impact on the offseason’s Anthony Davis sweepstakes, since whichever club lands the No. 1 pick will immediately have a viable AD trade chip.
Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:
Pre-Lottery Draft Order:
The top 14 picks in the 2019 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:
- New York Knicks
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Phoenix Suns
- Chicago Bulls
- Atlanta Hawks
- Washington Wizards
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Note: The Celtics will receive this pick if it falls out of the top eight.
- Atlanta Hawks (from Mavericks)
- Note: The Mavericks will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four.
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Charlotte Hornets
- Miami Heat
- Boston Celtics (from Kings)
- Note: The Sixers will receive this pick if it moves up to No. 1.
For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.
Draft Lottery Odds:
The Knicks, Cavaliers, and Suns have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each team has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.
From there, the Bulls (48.0%), Hawks (42.1%), and Wizards (37.2%) have the best odds at a top-four selection, with no other team above 26.3%.
For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.
Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:
Three trades will have an impact on Tuesday night’s lottery results. They are as follows:
Celtics/Grizzlies
The Celtics own the Grizzlies‘ top-eight protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive that selection if it’s No. 9 or lower. There’s a 42.6% chance that happens.
Memphis also has a 26.3% chance of moving up into the top four. The worst-case scenario for the Grizzlies, who wouldn’t mind conveying their pick this year so it doesn’t become even more attractive in a future draft, would be for the pick to land at No. 8 — there’s a 31.1% chance of that.
If the Grizzlies keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Celtics their top-six protected first-round pick in 2020.
Hawks/Mavericks
The Hawks own the Mavericks‘ top-five protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive the selection if it’s No. 6 or lower. Technically, the Dallas pick can’t fall between 5-8 due to the team’s place in the lottery.
There’s a 26.3% chance that the Mavericks’ pick will move up into the top four, in which case Dallas would keep it. Atlanta has a 73.7% chance to end up with the selection, including a 46.4% chance that it’s at No. 9.
If the Mavericks keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Hawks their top-five protected first-round pick in 2020.
Kings/Celtics/Sixers
The Celtics own the Kings‘ first-round pick, which has a 95.2% chance to land at No. 14. However, there are two scenarios that could shake up the draft.
The pick has a 3.8% chance of moving up to the 2-4 range, in which case it would stick with Boston, giving the C’s a chance to draft a top-four player after appearing in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
If the pick moves all the way up to No. 1 (1.0% chance), the Sixers would acquire the pick, sending their own first-rounder (No. 24) to Boston. In that long-shot scenario, Philadelphia would be in position to draft Williamson after playing in the Eastern Semifinals themselves.
Draft Lottery Representatives:
The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:
- New York Knicks
- On stage: Patrick Ewing (former player)
- Lottery room: Allan Houston (special assistant to the GM)
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- On stage: Nick Gilbert (son of team owner)
- Lottery room: Brock Aller (senior director of basketball operations)
- Phoenix Suns
- Chicago Bulls
- On stage: Horace Grant (special advisor to president/COO)
- Lottery room: Joey Reinsdorf (son of president/COO)
- Atlanta Hawks
- On stage: Jami Gertz (co-owner)
- Lottery room: Michelle Leftwich (VP, salary cap administration)
- Washington Wizards
- On stage: Raul Fernandez (vice chairman)
- Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (senior VP of basketball operations)
- New Orleans Pelicans
- On stage: Alvin Gentry (head coach)
- Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
- Memphis Grizzlies
- On stage: Elliot Perry (minority owner / director of player support)
- Lottery room: Zach Kleiman (executive VP of basketball operations)
- Dallas Mavericks
- On stage: Cynthia Marshall (CEO)
- Lottery room: Keith Grant (assistant GM)
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- On stage: Gersson Rosas (president of basketball operations)
- Lottery room: Brad Ruiter (VP of communications)
- Los Angeles Lakers
- On stage: Kyle Kuzma
- Lottery room: Rob Pelinka (GM)
- Charlotte Hornets
- On stage: James Borrego (head coach)
- Lottery room: Buzz Peterson (assistant GM)
- Miami Heat
- On stage: Alonzo Mourning (VP, player programs)
- Lottery room: Andy Elisburg (senior VP of basketball operations / GM)
- Boston Celtics
- On stage: Rich Gotham (president)
- Lottery room: Mike Zarren (assistant GM)
- Philadelphia 76ers
- On stage: Chris Heck (president)
- Lottery room: Ian Hillman (VP, strategy & analytics)
First Year For Current Lottery Format:
This will be the first year that the NBA uses its new lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.
As we outlined when we took a closer look at four potential lottery results, the new format could create a little more mayhem on lottery night.
For instance, in past years, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. This year, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.
For full details on the new lottery format, click here.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.