Month: November 2024

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Houston Rockets.


Salary Cap Outlook

Nearly identical $41MM salaries for James Harden and Russell Westbrook will prevent the Rockets from opening up any cap space this offseason, barring a major roster shakeup. With over $123MM in guaranteed money already committed to just six players, Houston is in position to surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2020/21 unless the club cuts costs.

For now, we’re assuming the Rockets will be operating with the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) rather than the full MLE or the bi-annual.

Our full salary cap preview for the Rockets can be found right here.


Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:


2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • None

Second Round:

  • None

While it remains possible that the Rockets will trade back into the draft, they’re currently the only team without a 2020 pick.

Houston dealt its first-rounder (No. 22) to Denver in the four-team deadline deal last season involving Robert Covington and Clint Capela. The Rockets’ second-rounder (No. 52) went to Sacramento in a three-team 2019 deadline trade that sent Brandon Knight to Cleveland and Iman Shumpert to Houston.


Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the Rockets look like without Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni in charge?

All NBA franchises reflect the philosophies of the people in charge to some extent, but few teams have been more defined by the their leaders during the past several years than the Rockets.

Morey and D’Antoni have each played a major role in revolutionizing the way modern basketball is played, and the marriage of their overlapping philosophies in Houston has resulted in an extreme style of small-ball that features an unprecedented amount of outside shooting.

Before D’Antoni arrived in Houston in 2016, no NBA team had ever come close to averaging 40 three-point attempts per game in a single season. Over the last four years, the Rockets have done it four times in a row, ranking first in the league in three-point attempts in each one of those seasons and establishing new records on three separate occasions (after averaging 45.4 threes per game in 2018/19, Houston averaged “only” 45.3 in ’19/20, preventing a fourth straight record season).

With Morey and D’Antoni both now out of the picture in Houston, it’s fair to wonder if we’ll see the Rockets modify their style of play going forward. If so, it would have a major impact on the roster moves they make this offseason and beyond.

I wouldn’t expect any major immediate changes, however, for a few reasons. For one, Morey’s replacement at the head of the basketball operations department is Rafael Stone, a veteran Rockets executive who presumably shares many of the same philosophies as his longtime boss. He’s helping to lead the search for a new head coach, so he’ll – in turn – likely be targeting candidates whose philosophies match up with his own.

Additionally, the Rockets have poured a ton of money, draft picks, and other resources into building a roster capable of thriving by playing small ball and launching three-pointers. Adopting a brand-new style of play would mean revamping the roster in a major way, and team owner Tilman Fertitta has said there are no plans to take that path this fall.

Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rockets make some minor adjustments to their roster going forward. Perhaps they’ll be willing to spend a few extra million bucks this offseason to bring in one or two more traditional big men who can be relied upon to play rotation roles. But I certainly wouldn’t expect Houston to fall back to the middle of the pack in three-point attempts next season just because Morey and D’Antoni aren’t pulling the strings anymore.

2. How much is Tilman Fertitta willing to invest into the 2020/21 roster?

After coming within one game of the NBA Finals in 2018, the Rockets have seemingly been losing ground in their playoff appearances since then. They fell to Golden State a round earlier – and without putting up as strong a fight – in 2019, then were dispatched from the 2020 postseason by the Lakers relatively unceremoniously, dropping four consecutive games in the second round.

Still, it’s not as if Houston is in a downward spiral. After all, the club lost to the eventual champions this year and can bring back essentially the same core next season. The Rockets’ most important players – James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker, and Danuel House – are all under contract for 2020/21.

Unfortunately, that core won’t come cheap. The Rockets are already on the hook for more than $123MM in guaranteed money for those six players, including nearly $83MM for just Harden and Westbrook. Assuming the tax line remains relatively unchanged from the 2019/20 threshold (approximately $132.63MM), Houston projects to surpass it simply by filling out its roster with minimum-salary players.

The Rockets’ projections for 2020/21 will put team ownership to the test in a major way. Since buying the franchise in 2017, Fertitta has publicly conveyed a willingness to be a taxpayer if it means contending for a title, but the team’s actions have told another story.

Houston made a series of minor cost-cutting trades leading up to the 2019 deadline, surrendering cash and draft picks in order to sneak below the tax line. At the 2020 deadline, the Rockets didn’t have to work quite as hard to reduce salary, but the four-team trade that sent Clint Capela to Atlanta and brought Covington to Houston allowed the team to shed some money and get out of tax territory.

If the Rockets want to make any real upgrades to their roster and truly compete for a championship in 2021, they’ll probably have to be willing to use their mid-level exception. That will mean surpassing the tax line by a comfortable margin — or perhaps an uncomfortable one, if you’re Fertitta. If he was hesitant before about becoming a taxpayer, the Rockets’ owner certainly won’t be any more enthusiastic going forward, having had his businesses hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

But it would be counter-intuitive for the Rockets to dump their team-friendly contracts – like Covington’s, Tucker’s, or House’s – and the team probably can’t afford to give up more draft picks to entice a team to take Gordon’s long-term deal. Assuming Harden and Westbrook aren’t going anywhere, there just aren’t many avenues left to cut costs. So it’s time to see just how willing Fertitta is to spend on the roster.

3. How can the Rockets upgrade their roster around their core players?

Even if we assume the Rockets are ready to spend to add complementary pieces this offseason, the team doesn’t have a ton of tools at its disposal.

One of those tools is the mid-level exception, worth will be worth approximately $5.72MM, assuming Houston uses the taxpayer MLE rather than the full version. With teams around the NBA not expected to spend big in free agency this offseason, the Rockets might actually be able to get a pretty solid rotation player with that exception.

If they target a wing, players like Garrett Temple, Wesley Matthews, Justin Holiday, Maurice Harkless, and Glenn Robinson III could be options.

They might be able to find an even bigger bargain if they focus on big men. I wouldn’t normally expect guys like Serge Ibaka or Derrick Favors to be in Houston’s price range, but Texas is a favorable landing spot and it’s possible there will be an established veteran willing to sign a team-friendly one-year deal before returning to a more player-friendly 2021 market.

As for non-mid-level options, players who have signed minimum-salary deals with Houston in past seasons – including Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, and Gerald Green – might be attainable at the same price this fall. Rivers may even exercise his minimum-salary player option to return.

The Rockets also have a handful of trade exceptions on hand, though none are worth more than about $3.5MM. Those exceptions are essentially only good for players on rookie contracts or veterans earning close to the minimum, but perhaps an inexpensive player in need of a change of scenery – such as Omari Spellman – would appeal to Houston.

Of course, the draft represents the best opportunity to add young talent on the cheap, but the Rockets are the only team without any picks in 2020. Still, if there are teams looking to sell second-round picks and Houston is willing to spend a few million dollars, there could be opportunities to trade back into the draft and take advantage of what looks to be a deep class.

The Rockets may not have the flexibility to add big-time talent this offseason, but the club doesn’t necessarily need another star. Acquiring a couple rotation players who can be counted on to produce in the playoffs would go a long way toward keeping Houston in contention.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining The NBA’s Plan For The 2020/21 Season

The NBA’s proposal to start next season on December 22 is an admission that league officials don’t expect to be able to fill arenas with fans any time soon, writes John Hollinger of The Athletic.

There had been rumors that the league was looking at Martin Luther King Day or possibly later as a start date to maximize the chances of having a COVID-19 vaccine that would allow large gatherings to resume. Hollinger believes the NBA is now considering the 2020/21 season a “sunk cost” and is focusing on having a normal timetable for 2021/22.

To make that happen, the league needs to fit in a shortened 72-game season in roughly four months — from late December through the end of April. That would leave time for a play-in tournament that’s also included in the league’s plans, followed by two months of playoffs that would finish by early July.

Hollinger notes that a precedent of sorts was set in the 2011/12 season when labor strife forced the league to adopt a 66-game schedule that ran from Christmas Day to April 26. He envisions something similar this year, but without teams being asked to play on three straight nights. Hollinger suggests that non-conference games might be eliminated, cutting down travel significantly, and leaving each team with eight games against each division rival and four games against each conference opponent from outside the division.

All-Star Weekend might be canceled this year, not only for the scheduling benefits but to eliminate the risks of bringing together players from all parts of the country and then sending them back to their teams. The league may also skip the preseason because of the tight window to get ready for games that count.

Hollinger addresses a few other topics the league will have to consider:

  • There’s virtually no desire to recreate a “bubble” atmosphere like the one in Orlando. It could be done in an emergency to preserve the playoffs or the NBA Finals, but the sentiment throughout the league is that teams should play in their own markets. The one exception may be the Raptors if travel into Canada remains limited. Hollinger suggests KeyBank Center in Buffalo or the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, as possible temporary homes.
  • The 72-game schedule is enough to for teams to satisfy their regional sports network contracts — most of which call for 65 to 70 televised games — and ensure that stream of revenue won’t be affected. There are also plenty of national television opportunities without stretching the playoffs past Independence Day and risking low ratings again.
  • Free agency will be more condensed than usual, with November 23, the Monday after the draft, appearing to be a likely starting point. That leaves about a week and a half before the expected opening of training camps.
  • The proposed changes give NBA players a much better chance of participating in the Olympics if they are able to be held. The Olympic basketball tournament is scheduled to begin July 24, which is at least two weeks after the end of the NBA Finals. Nations seeking the remaining four spots, such as Canada, Lithuania, Serbia, Greece, Croatia and Slovenia, stand a better chance of having their NBA players available when the qualifying tournaments get under way in late June.

J.B. Bickerstaff: Cavaliers Planning To Have Andre Drummond

There’s a lot of speculation about Andre Drummond‘s future in Cleveland, but Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff told Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com that the team is “planning for the future with him.” Drummond is expected to pick up his $28.7MM option for next season, which may cause the Cavs to look at trade possibilities before he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Bickerstaff and Drummond didn’t get much time to know each other before the league went on hiatus. Bickerstaff moved into the head coaching role in mid-February and led the team to a 5-6 record in 11 games. Drummond was acquired from the Pistons at the trade deadline and appeared in just eight games before the shutdown. Bickerstaff emphasized that he hasn’t talked directly to Drummond about his plans, but he is preparing to have the center on the roster when training camp begins.

“I have not asked him, ‘Hey man, are you opting in or opting out?’ But the conversations we’ve had have been positive,” Bickerstaff said. “Indirectly those conversations have been about the future, what next year is going to look like, how he wants to be part of the team and how we can use him effectively and all those things. He’s going to make his choice known whenever he’s going to make his choice known. I know he’s made public comments. We’ve had no conversations about him not being here and we’ve been planning for the future with him.

Bickerstaff touched on numerous topics with Fedor, including:

Preparing for the start of next season:

  • “The plan is kind of up in the air, but when you think of our guys we want them living with a baseline, whether it’s conditioning, skill workout, playing 5-on-5. We need a date so that we know when we are going to ramp up, but we also can’t get so far in a hole that we can’t get there safely because we don’t want injuries and those types of things to happen. For us, the most important thing is continuing to build that chemistry and the conversations we have and the moments we have, that’s just as important for us, if not more, than a rep on the court. We want to build a group of guys who are willing to sacrifice for one another, who care enough about each other that they can put personal things to the side in order to build what’s best for the team.”

The restrictions placed on the eight teams that didn’t play in Orlando:

  • “We would love to just play 1-on-1 sometimes with our guys. We would love to have Larry Nance Jr. guard Darius Garland or have Collin Sexton guard Kevin Love. We would love to be able to do those things. But we can’t because of safety. And we understand 100 percent. But we would still love to be able to do these things and we think that helps in development. How can Collin and Kevin develop a relationship or chemistry in the pick and roll if they aren’t allowed to be on the same court as one another?”

The difficulty of preparing for the draft without in-person workouts:

  • “Let’s say a guy plays in a smaller conference and he’s 6-7 but he looks 6-11, how big is he? How thick is he? How fast does he move? When you’re watching him and he’s working with whoever, can he listen? Whatever the drill that is being explained to him, can he pick that up? Those are all things you can’t necessarily see on tape. You don’t know what coaches are running and you don’t know what defensive schemes are being run or how they’re teaching it. So, to not be able to see that in person has been a disadvantage with all this going on, but hopefully with the league’s rules changing we are going to be able to see more of them if they allow us.”

The quality of this year’s draft:

  • “I think we are going to get a good player. I think there are a lot of guys with talent, with a great foundation, and then it’s a matter of what we do with them, right? Our player development group is second to none. We have guys that can make players of all sizes, skill sets, positions, better. That’s what you are dealt. Then, what do you make of that situation? You can easily say, ‘Oh it’s a weak draft so we expect these guys to fail.’ That’s the wrong approach. There are guys with talent, there are guys who have a high baseline and now it’s our job to make them better. That’s the approach that we are taking.”

Pat Riley Talks Heat Future: “I Think We’ll Stay The Course”

Coming off an unprecedented season that ended with an NBA Finals loss to the Lakers in six games, the Heat enter the offseason with questions to answer but a promising outlook entering 2020/21.

Led by last summer’s prized acquisition of Jimmy Butler, Miami seems to be in a position to once again be competitive for a championship. In addition to Butler, the play of youngsters Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, along with Bam Adebayo‘s breakout, helped the Heat ascend to the class of the Eastern Conference.

Team president Pat Riley indicated to reporters during a Zoom conference with reporters on Friday that the organization anticipates keeping most of the 2019/20 core intact, NBC Sports’ Kurt Helin writes.

“I think we’ll stay the course with our picks, stay the course with our young players,” Riley said. “We have decisions to make, obviously, with player contracts and free agents, and really do a deep dive into this season, myself and (coach Erik Spoelstra) and (GM) Andy (Elisburg) about how good we really are right now…flexibility with draft picks, free agency is coming next…and my thinking really hasn’t changed.”

However, there will be several key decisions for Miami involving free agents. The most prominent one involves veteran point guard Goran Dragic, whose injury-related absence for most of the NBA Finals noticeably impacted the Heat’s chances. In addition to Dragic,  Jae CrowderDerrick JonesMeyers LeonardSolomon Hill and de facto player/coach Udonis Haslem are also free agents.

Riley said the Heat value all of those players and will seek reunions where appropriate, including a possible extension of Adebayo.

“I really don’t want to get into any kind of discussions at this point about [an Adebayo extension,” Riley said. “I think all the hypotheticals out there about what people think is going to happen, that’s what they are. You all know our numbers. You know what the situation is, the free agents in ‘20 and ‘21. So when it comes to our players, we want to take care of them, and especially the ones that we really value.”

Kevin Seraphin Retires From Basketball

Former first-round NBA draft pick Kevin Seraphin has retired from professional basketball, as he announced during an interview with First Team (video link).

Seraphin, 30, was selected 17th overall in the 2010 NBA Draft by the Bulls before he was shipped to the Wizards. The France native suited up for seven seasons in the NBA, joining the Knicks and Pacers in his final two campaigns after five seasons in Washington.

For his career, Seraphin averaged 5.9 PPG and 3.5 RPG across 423 regular-season contests. His best NBA performance came during the 2012/13 season as averaged a career-best 9.1 PPG and 4.4 RPG in a career-high 79 games.

Following his NBA stint, Seraphin returned overseas to suit up for 49 EuroLeague contests with FC Barcelona and Liga ACB. He sat out the 2019/20 season due to knee injuries.

Pelicans Notes: Van Gundy, Udoka, Lee, Redick

The hiring of Stan Van Gundy shows the sense of urgency within the Pelicans organization, William Guillory of The Athletic opines. Anything less than immediate playoff contention on a roster headed by Zion Williamson will be viewed as a failure, Guillory notes. Van Gundy would not have left his TV job for a rebuilding project and Pelicans executives will expect immediate results from their big-name hire, Guillory adds.

We have more on the Pelicans:

  • Ime Udoka and Charles Lee are potential additions to the Pelicans’ coaching staff, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype reports. Udoka was an assistant under Brett Brown with the Sixers last season after a seven-year stint with the Spurs. Lee has worked under Mike Budenholzer since the 2014/15 season, first with the Hawks and then with the Bucks.
  • The fact that Van Gundy can concentrate on coaching rather than wearing two hats fosters the belief he’ll be a success in New Orleans, according to Scott Kushner of the New Orleans Times Picayune. Van Gundy was a flop in Detroit largely due to his personnel decisions. Van Gundy’s gregarious personality was a key factor in the hire, as Pelicans executive David Griffin feels Van Gundy will be able to connect with a young roster and make players accountable.
  • J.J. Redick is unlikely to be traded with Van Gundy on the bench, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst (hat tip to Sportando). Redick, who has one year and $13MM remaining on his contract, played for Van Gundy in Orlando.
  • If you didn’t get all the details on Van Gundy taking the coaching reins in New Orleans, we have them here.

Eastern Notes: Raptors’ Home, Hornets, Hayes, Maxey

Despite travel restriction and protocols due to the pandemic, the Raptors remain hopeful they’ll play in Toronto next season, Josh Lewenberg of TSN tweets. The organization has discussed several contingency options but it is not interested in moving games to Louisville, refuting a report earlier this week.

We have more from around the Eastern Conference:

  • The league’s Board of Governors is pondering a Christmas-time start to next season and that could benefit the Hornets, according to Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. The free agency period would be sped up and Charlotte, which will be significantly below the cap, could make bargain signings and acquire future assets while providing trade partners relief by taking on cumbersome contracts. The Hornets, who weren’t invited to the restart, would also like to get next season started sooner rather than later, Bonnell adds.
  • Killian Hayes might be a great fit for the Pistons with their lottery pick, Matt Babcock of BabcockHoops.com tells Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press. The overseas prospect is ranked No. 9 by ESPN and Detroit has the No. 7 pick but Hayes would fill a need at the point. “I think he’s a guy that could end up being sort of a lead playmaker, primary ball-handler and somewhat of a dynamic player,” Babcock told Sankofa.
  • The Sixers own the No. 21 pick and Kentucky combo guard Tyrese Maxey could develop into a rotation player if he slips to that spot, according to Derek Bodner of The Athletic. Maxey projects as a jack-of-all-trades type of player but needs to develop his shot to be a factor. The shooting guard is currently ranked No. 15 by ESPN.

Heat Notes: Riley, Crowder, Dragic, Adebayo, Roster

Heat team president Pat Riley isn’t planning on making any major changes to the roster this offseason, according to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald. Speaking to the media on Friday, Riley said he’s committed to keeping his young core intact.

“I think we’ll stay the course with our (draft) picks, stay the course with our young players,” he said. “We have decisions to make, obviously, with player contracts and free agents, and really do a deep dive into this season, myself and [coach Erik Spoelstra] and [GM Andy Elisburg], about how good we really are right now.”

Riley addressed a number of topics, including the team’s free agents. Here are the highlights:

  • At the top of the team’s free agent list are Jae Crowder and Goran Dragic and Riley hinted he’d like to re-sign them. However, he also wants to preserve cap space to make a run at a top-level free agent next season. “It’s going to be a little bit dicey for us because of wanting that flexibility,” he said. “But if things can happen prior to that, I think we have to take care of our own, as much as we can.”
  • The tricky timing of a possible Bam Adebayo extension also weighs heavily on Riley’s mind. If Adebayo signs a rookie scale extension this offseason, it would eat significantly into the Heat’s cap space for next offseason. Riley could try to convince Adebayo to delay signing an extension until next offseason but Riley isn’t keen on doing that. “I’m not going to approach it that way,” Riley said. “I really don’t want to get into any kind of discussions at this point about it. … We value Bam Adebayo. He’s an All-Star. And he’s young. And he’s great. And we’re going to do what’s in his best interest.”
  • Even though the team made a surprising run to the Finals in Orlando, Riley isn’t sure the team as presently constituted can pull that off again. That could play into his personnel decisions. “We were in the Finals. Are we a finalist?” he said. “Can we get through the Eastern Conference next year with what’s happening in Philadelphia or what’s going to happen in Milwaukee or what’s going to happen in Brooklyn or Boston? We already know that Boston has got their team together and they got three first-round picks in the draft. Toronto, there’s a lot of very good teams. So yeah, that’s a question that I’ll kick around in my mind. I’ll talk to Spo about it.”

NBA Targeting December 22 Start, 72-Game Season

After a report surfaced earlier today suggesting the logistics of the NBA’s 2020/21 season would be discussed during a board of governors meeting, more details have emerged, per Brian Windhorst and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN and Shams Charania of The Athletic.

As Windhorst and Wojnarowski report, the NBA is aiming to begin the ’20/21 season prior to Christmas Day. Charania indicates that December 22 is the current target date, with both ESPN and The Athletic reporting that the league is proposing a truncated 72-game season instead of the usual 82.

The plan would allow for players to participate in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics in July and August and would put the NBA on track to resume its usual October-to-June schedule for the 2021/22 season.

Beginning the ’20/21 season just two months from now would almost certainly eliminate the possibility of fans attending games in-person due to ordinances restricting large indoor gatherings in many teams’ home markets.

However, waiting for fan attendance to become viable in all 30 markets likely would’ve resulted in a significant delay for the start of next season, and the NBA now sees more value in beginning the season sooner rather than later.

Charania reports that the league office projected a $500MM revenue value in NBA resumption transpiring a few days before Christmas instead of a later 2021 date. The 2020 NBA Finals concluded on October 11.

While fans may not be permitted in arenas by December, the NBA “strongly prefers” to avoid another single-site bubble, according to Wojnarowski and Windhorst, who say that the league is discussing travel and game schedules that would keep teams in certain marketplaces for longer than normal — teams may play multiple consecutive games against one another, similar to regular-season series in MLB.

The NBA is also hoping to once again implement a play-in tournament prior to the postseason and may propose eliminating All-Star Weekend in 2021 in favor of a two-week break halfway through the season, per ESPN.

All of these details must be approved by the National Basketball Players Association before they become official. Wojnarowski and Windhorst report that the league intends to “move quickly” to negotiate the details with the NBPA and set the plan in motion.

The league has vowed to give players approximately eight weeks notice before the start of the 2020/21 season, which means that the goal would be to wrap up negotiations between the NBA and NBPA sometime next week.

Alex Kirschenbaum contributed to this story.

Northwest Notes: Wolves, Nuggets, Bazley, Jazz

With the 2020 draft currently scheduled for November 18, the Timberwolves are trying to gauge the market value of their three picks this year, per Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. The Wolves currently have the No. 1, No. 17, and No. 33 picks.

President of basketball operations Gersson Rosas and his staff have been conducting talent appraisals of their own roster to evaluate the appeal of the team’s trade assets.

“It’s not 100 percent accurate by any means,” Rosas said of the process, “but it gives you a good perspective as you look at your roster, as you look at your body of talent on your team and you look at how you value not only the picks that you have currently, but the picks around the league.”

There’s more out of the NBA’s Northwest Division:

  • In his latest mailbag, Mike Singer of The Denver Post examines some of the best trade options for the Nuggets. These include projecting the players and picks necessary for a possible Jrue Holiday deal, and what could be gained from moving up in the 2020 draft. With power forward Paul Millsap, center Mason Plumlee, and combo forward Jerami Grant all entering free agency, the team may also look to shore up its frontcourt with tactical signings.
  • Thunder wing Darius Bazley impressed Jack Reining of Daily Thunder during the playoffs of his 2019/20 rookie season. Bazley’s improved long-range shot selection appeared to greatly benefit his efficiency, and he was better able to take advantage of his physical attributes and timing during the NBA’s Orlando restart.
  • As we previously relayed, the Jazz may be focused on using the No. 23 pick in this year’s draft to improve their defense.