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2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

September 9th, 2024 at 9:42am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Southeast Division…

Orlando Magic

Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Hornets

Washington Wizards

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)
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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament

September 8th, 2024 at 7:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The play-in tournament ensures that at least 10 teams in each conference will get a taste of the postseason.

Unless something unforseen happens, eight teams in the Eastern Conference can already plan on playing beyond their regular season finales. It’s safe to assume the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Magic, Knicks, Cavaliers, Pacers and Heat will occupy eight of the postseason slots. The only mystery regarding those clubs is which two teams will have to come out of the play-in tournament.

Predicting which two Eastern teams among the remaining seven will participate in the play-in is a much tougher call. The Bulls and Hawks snared the last two spots last season, but there’s reason to believe they’ll wind up in the lottery.

The Bulls dealt away leading scorer DeMar DeRozan and top defender Alex Caruso this offseason and would like to make more moves. Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic have been on the trading block for quite a while and they could be wearing different uniforms at some point during the season. The addition of Josh Giddey, joining Coby White in the backcourt, could be enough to get them back to the play-in but that’s certainly no lock.

The Hawks, of course, broke up their high-scoring backcourt by dealing Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans. Atlanta did wind up with the top pick in the draft, but Zaccharie Risacher isn’t your typical top overall selection. No one quite knows what the Hawks have in Risacher, who is unlikely to have the sort of first-year impact that Victor Wembanyama or Brandon Miller did a year ago.

The Raptors have a much different roster than in recent years but they should improve on their 25-win total. They have built around Scottie Barnes with a backcourt of former Knicks Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett.

The Hornets could be on the upswing if LaMelo Ball can finally stay healthy for a whole season. They have two high-scoring wings in Miller and Miles Bridges.

The Wizards signed Jonas Valanciunas and have two promising forwards Bilal Coulibaly and No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr. They still seem to be a couple of years away from entering the postseason picture.

The Nets, of course, traded away their top player in Mikal Bridges with their sights set on next offseason, when they’ll have extra first-round picks and plenty of cap space.

Last, but maybe not least anymore, are the Pistons. Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Pistons used their ample cap room to get Cade Cunningham more help. The additions of Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. should make them more competitive.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Among the Bulls, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets, Wizards, Nets and Pistons, which of those Eastern Conference teams will make the play-in tournament this upcoming season? 

Please take to the comments section to address this topic. We look forward to your input.

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International Notes: Fournier, Gafford, Smailagic, Karaman

September 8th, 2024 at 11:41am CST by Arthur Hill

Evan Fournier is ready to get started with Olympiacos after spending 12 years in the NBA, per a Eurohoops story. The 32-year-old guard made the decision to play in Europe after helping France win a silver medal at the Olympics. During a press conference this week, Fournier confirmed that he received an offer from Washington, but he didn’t want to settle for being a mentor and a part-time player.

“I had contacts with some contenders during the summer, before the Olympics,” he told reporters. “I had an offer from the Wizards, but that wasn’t something I wanted for my career right now. I came to Olympiacos to experience strong emotions, play in big games, and be part of a special project. This was the opportunity at the right time and by far the best option for me.”

Fournier added that he grew up as a fan of Olympiacos and is happy to be able to join the Greek team. He spent time with JSF Nanterre and Poitiers Basket 86 before coming to the NBA, so he’s familiar with the European style of play, and he said at the news conference that it’s actually harder to score in the EuroLeague than it is in the NBA. He also stated that he received encouragement from Bulls center Nikola Vucevic, a former teammate, about returning to Europe.

“Vucevic and I have been discussing it all the time lately,” Fournier said. “He is from Montenegro and is a fan of Red Star, and he was asking me a lot of questions about my transition here. He loves European basketball as well. If he doesn’t (make) the playoffs, he will come see me play here.”

There’s more international news to pass along:

  • Mavericks center Daniel Gafford received an offer to join Luka Doncic on the Slovenian national team, Matej Erjavec, president of the Basketball Federation of Slovenia, revealed in an interview with Ekipa. Gafford was approached with the possibility after a game last season and asked for some time to consider it. “When he called us a few days later, he said that this summer was simply not going to work, as he had ordered individual exercises, programs, personal trainers and some other matters,” Erjavec said. “(But) he is definitely interested in the future.”
  • Former NBA player Alen Smailagic cited extortion, blackmail and financial fraud as reasons he chose to leave Serbia and sign with Zalgiris Kaunas in Lithuania, per BasketNews. Smailagic has filed criminal charges against two people regarding a contract his parents signed in 2019 after his first season with the Santa Cruz Warriors in the G League.
  • Turkish player Ilkan Karaman, who was selected in the 2012 NBA draft, has died at age 34 after being struck by a car while standing on the sidewalk, according to BasketNews. Karaman was taken by the Nets with the 57th pick in 2012. His draft rights were traded to Cleveland in 2014 and to Milwaukee in 2020, but he never played in the NBA.
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Evan Fournier Says He Turned Down Offer From Wizards

September 4th, 2024 at 6:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Evan Fournier had an opportunity to extend his NBA career, but he reveals in an interview with the French media outlet L’Equipe that he declined a two-year offer from the Wizards, according to French journalist Maxime Aubin (Twitter link).

The full interview won’t be posted until Thursday, but Aubin reports that Fournier said he wasn’t interested in taking on a “mentoring role” or playing for “a losing team.” That’s the situation he found himself in after being sent to Detroit at last season’s trade deadline. Fournier wound up playing 29 games for the Pistons and averaging 7.2 PPG off the bench in 18.7 minutes per night while shooting 37.3% from the field and 27% from three-point range, both far below his career averages.

The 32-year-old guard opted to return to Europe, agreeing to a two-year contract with Olimpiacos over the weekend. After being stuck in Tom Thibodeau’s doghouse with the Knicks and seeing very limited playing time over the past two seasons, Fournier wanted a situation where he could “enjoy playing basketball again,” per Aubin.

Fournier was one of the league’s most productive shooting guards during his six-plus seasons with Orlando, and he had a strong first year with New York, starting all 80 games he played while averaging 14.1 PPG and shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc. He fell out of favor with Thibodeau the next season because of his defensive shortcomings, but the Knicks’ front office decided to hold onto him and his hefty contract in case it was needed for a major trade.

At last month’s Olympics, Fournier showed he can still play at a high level against some of the world’s best competition. He averaged 9.8 points in six games to help French capture the silver medal.

Fournier received a hero’s welcome from Greek fans when he arrived at the airport and posted a short video of their response on Twitter. He told L’Equipe that playing in Europe became his priority after the Olympics wrapped up, Eurohoops relays.

“I would have liked to experience more things in the NBA, I only made the playoffs five times,” Fournier said. “But you don’t control everything about your destiny there. After the Olympic Games, I told my agent that I was keen to (return to Europe). Olympiacos was my priority.”

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Just One Team Has Used Full Non-Taxpayer MLE So Far

September 4th, 2024 at 8:03am CST by Luke Adams

As long as a team is operating below the second tax apron, it has access to at least some form of the mid-level exception, a tool designed to allow clubs to add talent without using cap room to do so. As we outline in more detail within our glossary, one of the following MLEs is available to a team below the second apron of $188,931,000:

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000): For teams operating between the first and second tax aprons.
  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,822,000): For teams operating above the cap and below the first apron.
  • Room exception ($7,983,000): For teams who operate under the cap and use up all their room.

While four teams – the Celtics, Suns, Timberwolves, and Bucks – currently have salaries above the second tax apron, the other 26 clubs have access to one of these three mid-level exceptions. However, only a small handful of those clubs have actually taken advantage of the exception, as our tracker shows.

The Warriors are the lone team to use the full portion of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception so far in 2024/25, having signed free agent guard De’Anthony Melton a one-year contract worth $12,822,000.

Four other teams have used at least some portion of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but still have a chunk left over for one or more signings later in the league year. That group includes the Bulls (approximately $4.25MM remaining), Mavericks ($4.25MM), Clippers ($3.3MM), and Wizards ($6.38MM). They used part of their MLEs to sign Jalen Smith, Naji Marshall, Derrick Jones, and Saddiq Bey, respectively.

The Nuggets used the entire $5.2MM taxpayer mid-level exception to add Dario Saric in free agency, while the Sixers re-signed Kelly Oubre using their full $8MM room exception.

The remaining 19 teams have yet to dip into their mid-level or room exceptions at all.

In some cases, it’s not practical to do so. For example, the Heat and Lakers technically have access to the taxpayer MLE, but are so close to the second apron that they can’t realistically use it without shedding some salary.

Other teams are close enough to the luxury tax line that it wouldn’t make sense for them to spend their mid-level exception and become a taxpayer. The Nets and Hawks, for instance, have yet to touch their MLEs, but they’re each less than $2MM away from the tax threshold, so it’s safe to assume neither team is on the verge of bringing in an MLE-level free agent.

Still, there are plenty of teams that have more than enough spending flexibility to use some or all of their exception. That group includes every club with access to the room exception, including potential contenders such as the Thunder and Magic.

The 2024/25 season represents the first league year in which teams are permitted to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or the room exception to acquire a player via trade rather than just to sign a player to a contract, so some clubs may be waiting until mid-season to see if a better opportunity arises on the trade market. Others may use some of their leftover exception money to pursue a free agent on the buyout market in February.

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Los Angeles Notes: George, Valanciunas, James

September 3rd, 2024 at 7:05pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Paul George‘s father, Paul George Sr., didn’t hold back his feelings about how his son’s contract negotiations with the Clippers played out. Appearing on his son’s podcast, ‘Podcast P with Paul George,’ George Sr. said he felt betrayed by his son’s former club.

“I felt like they stabbed us in the back because I thought Paul did a whole lot for the team, as far as the fanbase, the fans was there. He was there,” he said, per Tomer Azerly of Clutch Points. “I think he gave them 110% and what he was asking, it wasn’t a whole lot. But they saw something different.”

The younger George detailed earlier that he felt the Clippers’ initial offer was “disrespectful.” That offer was for two years and $60MM.

“I didn’t want him just to take anything,” George Sr. said. “So his whole thing is, he does stand up for what he believes in. And so he felt that that was a bunch of bull that they came at him with. And I wasn’t gonna sugarcoat it either. Yeah, I’m behind you 100%. If you’ve got to leave, we’re gonna leave.”

We have more on the Los Angeles teams:

  • Jonas Valanciunas, who was signed by the Wizards, was one of the free agents reportedly on LeBron James‘ wish list this offseason. The Athletic’s Jovan Buha believes the Lakers could pursue an in-season trade for the veteran big man but would prefer other centers if they’re on the market, he said on a podcast (hat tip to HoopsHype). “There was some interest obviously and he was on LeBron’s list so I think the Lakers will probably revisit that, but I don’t think there’s as much interest as a guy like a Wendell Carter or some of these other guys that have popped up,” Buha said. “So I view it more as like a mid-to-low tier trade target for the Lakers.”
  • Speaking of James, he’s not expected to be on Team USA’s roster for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. He claims he could compete for an Olympic medal in other sports, if given enough time to train, he said on ‘The Shop’ podcast (hat tip to BasketNews.com). “If you give me some time, about six months, eight months, or whatever, I think I could do the long jump, maybe, or the high jump,” James said.
  • In case you missed it, the Lakers agreed to a training camp deal with Jordan Goodwin. Get the details here.
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Nine NBA Teams Have Two-Way Contract Openings

September 1st, 2024 at 9:11am CST by Rory Maher

Two-way contracts allow NBA teams to carry three extra players in addition to the 15 on their regular season roster. These players generally bounce back and forth between the NBA and G League, but remain under team control and can’t be poached by rival franchises.

With training camps set to begin in about a month, there are still nine NBA teams with open two-way spots. Two clubs — the Nets and Magic — each have a pair of two-way openings, while the remaining seven teams have one opening apiece. That means there are currently 11 two-way openings in the NBA.

Here’s the full list of NBA teams with two-way vacancies, as shown by our 2024/25 two-way contract tracker:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Chicago Bulls
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Detroit Pistons
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Orlando Magic
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • Washington Wizards

Technically, the Cavaliers have yet to finalize their reported two-way deal with JT Thor, but we expect that to occur at some point before training camp — that’s why they are not included on this list.

Since two-way deals are non-guaranteed and don’t count against the salary cap, it’s pretty common to see players shuffled in and out of rosters both before and during the season. It’s worth noting that Exhibit 10 deals can be converted to two-way contracts under certain conditions — these teams may be waiting until training camp and preseason to get a better look at young players.

First introduced in 2017, two-way deals have undergone some rule changes in recent years, and the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement has updated them further. Here are some key points to remember:

  • Teams can now carry three players on two-way contracts, rather than two.
  • Two-way players are eligible to be active for up to 50 of their team’s 82 regular season games. If a team isn’t carrying a full 15-man standard roster, its two-way players can only be active for a combined 90 games.
  • Players on two-way contracts will earn $578,577 in 2024/25, half of the rookie minimum.
  • Two-way contracts can’t be signed after March 4.

You can check out our glossary entry to learn more about two-way contracts.

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Wizards To Sign Kira Lewis, Jaylen Nowell, Leaky Black

August 28th, 2024 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

The Wizards have reached contract agreements with free agents Kira Lewis, Jaylen Nowell, and Leaky Black, league sources tell Josh Robbins and Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

According to Robbins and Charania, all three players will sign Exhibit 10 contracts with Washington and will be given an opportunity to compete in training camp for regular season roster spots.

Lewis, 23, was the 13th overall pick in the 2020 draft, but only appeared in 131 games across his first four NBA seasons due in large part to injuries, including a torn ACL he suffered during the 2021/22 season. The 6’1″ guard has averaged 5.2 points and 1.8 assists in 13.3 minutes per game for the Pelicans, Raptors, and Jazz. Last season, he was traded three times – from New Orleans to Indiana to Toronto to Utah – before reaching unrestricted free agency when the Jazz declined to issue a qualifying offer.

Nowell, a 6’4″ shooting guard, spent his first four NBA seasons in Minnesota from 2019-23, averaging 9.1 points per game on .447/.322/.798 shooting in 184 appearances for the Timberwolves. Despite showing promise as a scorer, Nowell was unable to find a regular NBA job last season — he was waived by Sacramento ahead of opening night, then signed two 10-day contracts apiece with the Grizzlies and Pistons during the season. The 25-year-old spend most of the 2023/24 campaign with the Stockton Kings in the G League.

Black, 25, spent his rookie season with the Hornets after going undrafted out of UNC in 2023. The 6’6″ forward saw limited action in 26 NBA games while on a two-way contract with Charlotte. He played a larger role for the Greensboro Swarm in the NBAGL, posting averages of 7.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 2.1 APG in 24.8 MPG across 25 total Showcase Cup and regular season outings. His two-way deal covered two seasons, but he was waived by the Hornets about four weeks ago.

Exhibit 10 contracts allow players to earn bonuses worth up to $77.5K if they’re waived by their NBA teams and then spend at least 60 days with the club’s G League affiliate, so it’s possible Lewis, Nowell, and/or Black will end up playing for the Capital City Go-Go. Exhibit 10 deals can also be converted to two-way contracts prior to opening night, but Lewis and Nowell have more than three years of NBA service and are therefore ineligible to be two-way players.

The Wizards currently have 16 players on standard contracts (15 guaranteed), with a pair on two-way deals. While Black figures to be in the mix for the team’s open two-way slot, it will be an uphill battle for Lewis or Nowell to make the standard regular season roster unless Washington intends to trade or waive a player with a guaranteed contract.

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And-Ones: Sophomores, PFs, Title Favorites, 2025 Cap Room

August 27th, 2024 at 6:33pm CST by Tristan Tucker

The 2023 draft class was a massive success, with rookies like Victor Wembanyama and Brandon Miller looking like stars for their respective teams. The depth and variety in last season’s rookies was noteworthy, with some like Jaime Jaquez and Brandin Podziemski impressing for playoff contenders as later and older draft picks, while others like Amen Thompson and Dereck Lively shouldered big minutes as younger players.

That doesn’t even factor in Chet Holmgren, who missed what would have been his rookie season in 2022/23 with an injury. In most years, the competition between Wembanyama and other rookies would’ve been nonexistent, but Holmgren stepped forward as another star rookie who helped the Thunder secure the No. 1 seed.

In an article for ESPN+, Jeremy Woo takes a look at and ranks the NBA’s 10m most interesting sophomores. Woo’s list is subjective, so he didn’t include players like Jaquez, Podziemski and Lively since they don’t have as much to gain as others on this list in his eyes, focusing instead on players who hold more intrigue due to their upside

Unsurprisingly, Wembanyama (No. 1), Holmgren (No. 3) and Miller (No. 4) all rank highly. Woo has Houston’s Thompson twin ranking in at No. 2 though, explaining that he has the highest potential of any player on the Rockets and opining that he’s in an ideal situation for his development. Orlando’s Anthony Black also ranks highly as an impact player who has the potential to help shape the Magic’s future.

We have more from around the basketball world:

  • After ranking other positions, HoopsHype released their power forward rankings ahead of the 2024/25 season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the obvious pick at No. 1, but both Zion Williamson (No. 2) and Paolo Banchero (No. 3) rose after successful seasons. GG Jackson came in at No. 22 in the rankings following an impressive rookie season as a second-round pick. Jackson came in at No. 10 on Woo’s list of intriguing sophomores.
  • The Celtics rank as an early favorite to become repeat champions after an offseason in which they retained all their key pieces and extended some. However, health and general luck could work against them next season, Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report opines. No team has repeated as champs since the Warriors in 2017 and 2018, so a Boston repeat is far from a given, even though they had a tremendous offseason. Pincus ranks the top 10 contenders in the NBA and offers arguments against each one winning next year’s title.
  • Based on current projections, only the Nets and the Wizards will have enough cap space to offer a max contract next summer, as Danny Leroux of The Athletic observes. Leroux looks over the projected 2025 cap sheets for all 30 teams across the league, identifying the Rockets, Heat and Bulls as some of the more interesting cases in 2025. The Rockets could keep the roster together or might be inclined to part with Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green while opening up as much as $69MM in space. Meanwhile, the Heat’s situation is dependent on what Jimmy Butler wants to do, while the Bulls could create space if they move off Zach LaVine or Nikola Vucevic.
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