- Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel makes the case for why the Magic should offer head coach Steve Clifford a contract extension. Clifford is set to oversee a rebuild centered around the likes of Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac, and Wendell Carter Jr.
- Magic team president Jeff Weltman discussed Orlando’s offseason roster-building plans ahead with a loaded NBA draft looming, writes Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel. Weltman alluded to prioritizing the best player available over fit with the current young roster ahead of the draft, in which the Magic could very well have two lottery picks. “The draft is about talent,” Weltman said. “You always ask ‘fit or best talent.’ We’re in a great position right now. We’re not going to have 15 players 23 and under. We’ll add some vets to help us grow. We don’t even know if we’ll have one or two (lottery) picks yet.”
- The Magic‘s 21-51 record in 2020/21 was the team’s worst mark since 2014/15, but president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman is very optimistic about the direction of the rebuild, as Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press writes. “It’s exciting,” Weltman said. “I’ve never felt more excited about the team since I’ve been here than I do right now.”
- The Magic couldn’t take anything out of this disastrous season, except for improving their chances of getting a top-four pick, Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel opines. Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz lost valuable development time due to season-ending injuries and it’s tough to evaluate the other young players on the roster because the team was in tank mode during the second half of the season.
- With seven key players between the ages of 20 and 23, player development will be crucial to the future of the Magic, notes Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Coach Steve Clifford said it’s important for young players to understand that playing time has to be earned. “I would say minutes earned (is the better path because) there is accountability.” Clifford explained. “When you play well, you get more. … I tell the guys all the time, ‘If you want to play more, if you want a bigger role, play better.’ It’s really as simple as that. It doesn’t mean numbers. Execute. Know what we’re doing (schematically). All of that comes into play.”
- New Magic wing Gary Harris has proven to be a locker room leader during his brief time with Orlando, writes Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel. “When you have time to spend with him and you watch him in practice, you watch the way he integrates with his teammates and everything, he has character both on the court and off the court,” head coach Steve Clifford raved. “Obviously those are the guys that you want talking in the huddles, talking in the locker room because he believes and he talks about the right things.” Harris will earn $20.48MM in 2021/22 before becoming eligible for free agency next summer.
- In a wide-ranging interview with Alex Kennedy of Basketball News, rookie Magic guard R.J. Hampton discussed his first NBA season and his tenures in Denver and Orlando thus far. Hampton averaged just 9.3 MPG across 25 games with the championship-contending Nuggets. Since being dealt to the Magic in March, Hampton has seen a significant increase in all his counting stats. He is averaging 24.8 MPG, and putting up 10.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.5 APG a night. “Now, I’m getting an opportunity to play, but I think throughout my whole season, I’ve progressed a little bit day-by-day and just gotten better over the course of these months,” Hampton told Kennedy. “I don’t think there are really any cons for me in Orlando; this is what I wanted. I wanted to be on a team where I could play and grow and help my team get wins. Those were the biggest pros and cons, and differences.”
Following the expiration of his 10-day contract on Tuesday night, Ignas Brazdeikis has signed a new rest-of-season contract with the Magic. The team announced the deal in a press release.
Brazdeikis, 22, appeared in five games during his first 10 days with the Magic, averaging a solid 10.0 points and 4.6 rebounds on .432/.500/.700 shooting in 28.4 minutes per contest.
The second-year wing, who was selected 47th overall in the 2019 draft, previously spent time with the Knicks and Sixers, but only appeared in 14 total games for those two clubs, logging limited playing time at the NBA level. Of Brazdeikis’ 210 career NBA minutes, 142 have come during his brief stint with the Magic.
With Brazdeikis back under contract, Orlando is once again carrying 18 players (including two-ways). Although 17 is the usual limit, the Magic have been granted a hardship exception allowing them to carry an extra player, due to all the injuries the team is dealing with.
Kirschner tweets that Hunter will miss Wednesday’s contest against the Wizards for scheduled maintenance on the knee, but will be available on the second night of the Hawks’ latest back-to-back, Thursday against the Magic.
- Though the Magic have been eliminated from playoff contention and appear to be prioritizing high lottery picks in a packed draft, there are still plenty of intriguing chemistry elements the club can evaluate among its current young players down the stretch, writes Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel.
Word broke last Thursday that the Magic intended to sign Admiral Schofield to a 10-day contract using a hardship exception, but two days later, we learned that the deal had fallen through.
As Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN explains (via Twitter), there were “inconsistencies” in Schofield’s COVID-19 testing that held up his signing and forced the Magic to move on. Orlando ended up bringing back Donta Hall, while Schofield was eventually confirmed to be negative for the coronavirus, per Wojnarowski.
It’s a tough break in what has been a difficult season for Schofield. After spending his rookie season with the Wizards, the 24-year-old was traded and waived in November, struggled in the G League after being selected first overall in the NBAGL draft, and – barring a last-minute signing – ultimately won’t end up playing any NBA games in his second professional season.
Here are a few more notes from around the Eastern Conference:
- Joe Vardon of The Athletic argued on Monday that the Cavaliers made a mistake by signing Anderson Varejao to a ceremonial contract rather than trying to develop a young prospect using that roster spot, but Evan Dammarell of Forbes says the Cavs have already proven this season that they’re capable of developing young talent, based on the growth of youngsters like Dean Wade, Lamar Stevens, and Mfiondu Kabengele. While I’m not sure that’s a convincing case to not try to develop another player, it’s worth noting that Varejao was signed using a short-term hardship exception — if the Cavs had opted for a prospect instead, they wouldn’t have been able to sign that player to a multiyear contract.
- Victor Oladipo (knee) still isn’t traveling with the Heat on their current road trip, but the recent return of Tyler Herro to the backcourt has given the team a boost, writes Khobi Price of The Sun Sentinel.
- Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files makes the case for why letting veteran assistant coach Dan Burke go was the worst move of the Pacers‘ 2020 offseason, while J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star suggests that Pacers swingman Kelan Martin – who began the season on a partially guaranteed contract – has earned more playing time.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.