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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

May 18th, 2023 at 2:08pm CST by Rory Maher

The Magic have been the worst team in the NBA over the past decade, recording a 289-512 record in the last 10 seasons. They won fewer than 30 games in six of those campaigns, only finishing above .500 once (42-40), when they lost in the first round of the playoffs in 2018/19.

However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. For starters, Orlando exceeded external expectations in 2022/23, increasing its year-end win total from 22 to 34.

With two lottery picks in 2023 (sixth and 11th), an extra first-round pick via Denver in 2025, all of their own future firsts, and several extra seconds, the Magic have a nice haul of draft assets. They also have an impressive young core headlined by Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and standout sophomore Franz Wagner.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

If they really wanted to, the Magic could create nearly $60MM in cap room this summer if they choose not to guarantee any of their own salaries and renounce all of their free agents and cap holds (aside from the lottery picks). That’s highly unlikely though.

The far more realistic scenario is they’ll have somewhere in the range of $25-45MM in cap room, depending on what they do with Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac. Harris’ $13MM contract for next season is fully non-guaranteed, while Isaac — who has played just 11 games over the past three seasons — has a $17.4MM cap hit, of which only $7.6MM is guaranteed.

Markelle Fultz should be a lock to have his full $17MM salary for ‘23/24 guaranteed – he’s only owed $2MM as of now. The former first overall pick played a major role in the Magic turning their season around. After Orlando started 5-16 without him, Fultz appeared in 60 of the team’s 61 remaining games — the Magic had a 29-31 record in those 60 games, losing the lone contest he sat in April.

The young guard has been plagued by injuries throughout his six NBA seasons, only appearing in 191 total games. But he was productive when healthy in ‘22/23, averaging career highs in points (14.0), assists (5.7), rebounds (3.9), steals (1.5), and minutes per game (29.6), as well as field goal percentage (51.4%).

Fultz still struggles from long distance, converting just 31% of his three-pointers on low volume (1.5 attempts per game). However, he’s an explosive and crafty finisher around the rim, is quite accurate on mid-range jumpers (45.8%, which ranked in the 70th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com), and is a solid defensive player.

There are three reasons why I’m discussing Fultz so extensively. One, if the Magic guarantee his salary, he’ll be eligible for an extension. Two, his outside shooting woes affect the rest of the team, because it’s the biggest roster weakness. Three, it has been floated that Orlando might pursue a veteran point guard with its cap space, with Fred VanVleet being rumored as a target.

Is VanVleet a better player than Fultz right now? Yes. He’s a far more willing – and better – outside shooter than Fultz, even if he’s coming off a highly erratic campaign that saw him post a career-low 34.2% from beyond the arc. He’s also four years older and looked a half step slower on defense in ‘22/23.

VanVleet is rumored to be seeking a contract similar to what Jrue Holiday received a couple years ago, which was $135MM over four years (incentives increased the value a bit). I like VanVleet, and he has outplayed his current contract. But I don’t think he’s worth double Fultz’s salary, particularly with Cole Anthony eligible for a rookie scale extension and Jalen Suggs still having two years left on his rookie contract.

If I were running the Magic, I would rather let those young guards and the rest of the roster continue to develop, and look to add younger wing talent and shooting via the draft and less expensive free agent targets.

Some potential free agent names of interest: Austin Reaves (restricted), Cameron Johnson (restricted), Gary Trent Jr. (player option), Donte DiVincenzo (player option) and Max Strus (unrestricted). Johnson shares positional overlap at forward with Banchero and Wagner, but I don’t think that’s a big deal – he’s great at playing off the ball and is one of the best shooters on the market (the Magic have also shown a willingness to experiment with position-less lineups).

Orlando’s only real rotation player who’s a free agent is Moritz Wagner, who had a solid season as the backup center. The Magic have his Bird rights, so they won’t have to earmark cap room or an exception to re-sign him, assuming they want him back.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Wendell Carter Jr. ($13,050,000)
Paolo Banchero ($11,608,080)
Jonathan Isaac ($7,600,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Jalen Suggs ($7,252,080)
Cole Anthony ($5,539,771)
Franz Wagner ($5,508,720)
Chuma Okeke ($5,266,713)
Markelle Fultz ($2,000,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Caleb Houstan ($2,000,000)
Kevon Harris (two-way)
Jay Scrubb (two-way)
Total: $59,825,364

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

Michael Carter-Williams ($3,051,144): Bird rights
- Note: Carter-Williams’ salary would remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
Goga Bitadze ($2,066,585): Non-Bird rights
Admiral Schofield ($1,997,238): Early Bird rights
Total: $7,114,967

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Markelle Fultz ($15,000,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Fultz’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
Gary Harris ($13,000,000)
- Note: Harris’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
Jonathan Isaac ($9,800,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee.
Bol Bol ($2,200,000)
- Note: Bol’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
Total: $40,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

None

Draft Picks

No. 6 overall ($7,137,840)
No. 11 overall ($4,952,160)
No. 36 overall (no cap hold)
Total: $12,090,000

Extension-Eligible Players

Markelle Fultz (veteran)
Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
Cole Anthony (rookie scale)
Chuma Okeke (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Moritz Wagner ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
Arron Afflalo ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Marreese Speights ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Ignas Brazdeikis ($1,774,999 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Vic Law ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Sindarius Thornwell ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total: $11,294,091

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Room exception: $7,609,000

Rockets Notes: No. 4 Pick, Thompson, Porter, Harden

May 17th, 2023 at 9:56pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Rockets will listen to trade offers for their No. 4 pick and they expect a lot of interest around the league, writes Kelly Iko of The Athletic. Houston is hoping for a turnaround next season after spending three straight years in the league’s bottom three, and Iko indicates that the Rockets’ front office would have considered dealing the pick with any lottery outcome short of landing No. 1 and the chance to draft Victor Wembanyama.

“We’ve been looking at this draft for three years,” general manager Rafael Stone said after the lottery results were announced. “This is a really good draft. Very confident that there are uber-talented players that will be available.”

General counsel Clay Allen, who represented the team in the lottery room for the third straight year, admitted being more nervous this time because a potential franchise player like Wembanyama was at stake. According to Iko, Allen mostly sat in silence after the results were official and he realized that the French big man had gone to the division-rival Spurs.

“Severe disappointment,” Allen said. “This is my third year here. We’ve gotten the second and third picks in the past. I was really hoping we were going to be No. 1. … You can’t affect this at all, but you don’t want to let people down.”

There’s more on the Rockets:

Overtime Elite star Amen Thompson is aware that he’s listed fourth in many mock drafts, and he told Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle that he would be excited to come to Houston if that’s how the draft plays out. Thompson has a meeting scheduled with the Rockets at the NBA Draft Combine on Thursday after holding sessions with the Magic and Trail Blazers on Wednesday. He listed several aspects of his game that he believes can help a team right away. “Getting to the cup, getting in the paint, facilitating, defense — that’s already ready,” Thompson said. “The shot’s going to come. Everything’s going to come. I’m not a finished product yet.”
Kevin Porter Jr. spoke to players at the combine on Wednesday at the invitation of the NBPA, Feigen adds in another Chronicle story. Porter also sat with Stone and new Rockets coach Ime Udoka as they watched one of the scrimmages.
In a separate piece, Feigen examines the risks and rewards of a potential reunion with James Harden. A report earlier today stated that Harden will turn down his $35.6MM player option for next season in hopes of signing a long-term contract.

Weltman Excited To Keep Building Through Draft With Two Lottery Picks

May 17th, 2023 at 11:23am CST by Luke Adams

Speaking after Tuesday’s lottery, Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman didn’t sound like someone who will be looking to trade one or both of the team’s lottery picks. Weltman, whose Magic control the No. 6 and No. 11 picks this June, said the team’s goal has long been to “build through the draft” and that he’s looking forward to meeting with several of this year’s top prospects (Twitter video link via Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel).

Lowe’s Latest: GM Meetings, Wizards, Blazers, Lue, Kuminga, Harden

May 17th, 2023 at 10:06am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s general managers held their annual meeting in Chicago on draft lottery day and the discussions among those GMs about a handful of competition-related issues were “lively,” according to ESPN’s Zach Lowe (Insider link).

One of the topics the GMs talked about on Tuesday, according to Lowe, was the idea of turning the NBA draft into a two-day event. They also discussed whether the modern game has tilted too far toward offensive production and considered what could be done to help defenses. Additionally, sources tell Lowe that some executives in attendance suggested bringing back escalating fines as a penalty for players who flop.

Much of the general managers’ conversation revolved around the issue of load management, and Lowe hears from sources that there may be more load management-related rules implemented as soon as next season. According to Lowe, some in attendance at the meetings believe the NBA may revisit its guidelines on when teams are permitted to rest players, as well as the penalties for clubs that violate those guidelines.

Here’s more from Lowe, who was in the drawing room for Tuesday night’s lottery:

Before the fourth and final lottery ball was drawn for the No. 1 pick, the Wizards had six of the 11 available combinations, according to Lowe and other reporters who attended the drawing. The Magic, Pacers, and Trail Blazers were also still alive for the top pick at that point, but it was the Spurs who lucked out and held the winning combination: 14-5-8-2.
Rival executives are expecting Portland to re-sign Jerami Grant this offseason, according to Lowe, who says he believes the Trail Blazers will also look into renegotiating the protections on the lottery-protected first-round pick they owe to the Bulls. Removing or reducing the protections on that pick would give the Blazers more flexibility to trade future first-rounders.
The Clippers love having Tyronn Lue as their head coach and are “happy to remind” teams with interest in Lue that he remains under contract, Lowe reports. The Suns are said to have legitimate interest in hiring Lue away from their division rivals, but it sounds like Los Angeles would make that very difficult. As Lowe notes, it’s still unclear whether or not that’s even something Lue would want.
Executives in Chicago are “buzzing” about what the future holds for the Warriors and Sixers. Based on his conversations, Lowe says there’s a strong level of interest in Golden State forward Jonathan Kuminga around the NBA. Lowe adds that, while the Rockets and James Harden have mutual interest in a reunion, league sources made it clear that Harden’s return to Houston is no lock after the dismissal of Doc Rivers in Philadelphia.

Spurs Win 2023 NBA Draft Lottery; Hornets, Blazers, Rockets In Top Four

May 16th, 2023 at 7:27pm CST by Luke Adams

The Spurs have won the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

San Antonio claimed the No. 1 overall pick in Tuesday night’s draft lottery, putting the club in position to select Wembanyama, a 7’5″ French phenom who is widely considered the top NBA prospect since LeBron James.

The top 14 slots for the 2023 draft have officially been set. The lottery order is as follows:

San Antonio Spurs
Charlotte Hornets
Portland Trail Blazers
Houston Rockets
Detroit Pistons
Orlando Magic
Indiana Pacers
Washington Wizards
Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks
Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans

It’s the third time in franchise history that the Spurs have won a draft lottery and earned the right to add a generational big man to their roster. San Antonio drafted David Robinson with the No. 1 overall pick in 1987 and Tim Duncan with the top pick in 1997.

The Spurs entered the night third in the lottery standings, but had a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 pick, the same odds as Detroit and Houston, the top two teams in the lottery standings.

The Pistons are the biggest loser of the night, slipping all the way out of the top four after finishing the season with the NBA’s worst record at 17-65. It also wasn’t an ideal outcome for the Rockets, who slipped from second to fourth in a draft widely considered to have a consensus top three prospects.

The Hornets, who had a 12.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 48.1% chance to end up in the top four, move up two spots to No. 2 and will likely decide between G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson and Alabama wing Brandon Miller, who are viewed as the next-best prospects behind Wembanyama.

Henderson was once considered a lock for the No. 2 spot, but had an up-and-down year in the G League while Miller had a big freshman season for the Crimson Tide.

At No. 3, the Trail Blazers also moved up two spots and are the night’s other big winner — they’ll be in position to draft either Henderson or Miller, whichever one the Hornets pass on. Of course, Portland badly wants to build a roster around Damian Lillard that’s capable of contending sooner rather than later, so it’s possible the team will listen to offers for its lottery pick, but the price would presumably be extremely high.

Outside of the top five, the remaining lottery picks remain unchanged from the pre-lottery order. That means the Mavericks will keep their first-round pick, which would have been sent to the Knicks if it had slipped out of the top 10. Dallas will instead owe New York its 2024 first-rounder with top-10 protection.

The Bulls, meanwhile, would have hung onto their lottery pick if it had moved into the top four, but it will be sent to the Magic since it fell outside of its protected range. That pick was the last asset that Chicago owed to Orlando as part of the 2021 Nikola Vucevic trade.

Tuesday’s lottery results also shook up the order of the second round. Because San Antonio will be picking ahead of Houston in the first round, the Rockets’ second-round pick has moved up from No. 33 to No. 32, which means it will be sent to the Pacers instead of the Celtics.

That’s great news for the Pacers, who move up 18 spots from No. 50 as a result of that lottery outcome and a convoluted set of trade criteria involving multiple second-rounders. Rather than getting Houston’s pick, Boston will receive Portland’s second-rounder at No. 35, while the Thunder – who had been in position to get No. 35, will instead pick at No. 50.

Magic To Bid To Host 2027 All-Star Game

May 16th, 2023 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The Magic are working with the City of Orlando on a bid to host the 2027 NBA All-Star Game, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel (Twitter link), who confirms reporting from Richard Bilbao of The Orlando Business Journal. The team last hosted the All-Star Game in 2012.

Banchero Blindsided By Being Picked No. 1

May 8th, 2023 at 9:17pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Magic forward Paolo Banchero, who was named Rookie of the Year last week, said he had no idea he might be taken with the top pick last June until draft day, when he saw a report from Adrian Wojnarowski, Banchero told the ESPN analyst on the Woj Pod (Twitter link). “My mom was in complete shock. … I was freakin’ out. Going No. 1 is a whole different thing, especially when you’re not expecting it,” he said.

NBA Announces All-Rookie Teams

May 8th, 2023 at 1:12pm CST by Rory Maher

Rookie of the Year winner Paolo Banchero was a unanimous choice for the 2022/23 All-Rookie First Team, the NBA announced today (via Twitter).

Players receive two points for a First Team vote and one point for a Second Team vote, and Banchero received the maximum possible 200 points.

Here’s the full five-man squad, listed in order of their total points received via voters:

Magic forward Banchero (200)
Thunder guard/forward Jalen Williams (199)
Jazz center Walker Kessler (195)
Kings forward Keegan Murray (185)
Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (170)

The All-Rookie Second Team was announced as well, with a couple of teammates headlining the group (Twitter link).

Pistons guard Jaden Ivey (142)
Pistons center Jalen Duren (85)
Rockets forward Jabari Smith (72)
Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan (66)
Rockets forward Tari Eason (47)

In my opinion, the most surprising omission from the All-Rookie Second Team was Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard, who received 46 points. Nembhard was actually listed on one more ballot than Eason, but Eason received two First Team votes versus Nembhard’s zero, giving him a narrow edge.

That’s not to say Eason (or anyone else) was undeserving — he had a strong season as a tenacious offensive rebounder and defender. I just thought Nembhard should have been honored because he started the majority of the season for a competitive Indiana team and was frequently tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ best player, as Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files notes (via Twitter).

According to the NBA (Twitter link), others receiving votes included Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe (36), Hawks wing AJ Griffin (26), Nuggets forward Christian Braun, Thunder center Jaylin Williams (seven), Mavericks guard Jaden Hardy (four), Spurs guard Malaki Branham (three), Pelicans guard Dyson Daniels (two), Hornets center Mark Williams (two) and Bucks wing MarJon Beauchamp (one).

In case you missed it, more NBA awards will be coming later this week. The All-Defensive teams will be announced on Tuesday, followed by All-NBA on Wednesday and the Teammate of the Year award on Thursday.

Southeast Notes: Isaac, Adebayo, Perry, Wizards’ Draft

May 7th, 2023 at 5:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jonathan Isaac only appeared in 11 games this season but the Magic forward is optimistic he’ll be fully healthy by training camp, according to Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel. Isaac’s career has been marred by lower body injuries.

“This is really going to be the first summer I have to fully work,” he said. “Every other summer I’ve been rehabbing trying to get back onto the court. So I’ll hopefully in the next few weeks be a full go. And doing everything I need to do to have a healthy next season.”

Isaac’s contract for next season has a base salary of $17.6MM. It is partially guaranteed for $7.6MM before it becomes fully guaranteed on Jan. 10.

We have more from the Southeast Division:

Bam Adebayo racked up 17 points and 12 rebounds in Game 3 of the Heat’s playoff series against the Knicks and coach Erik Spoelstra said his impact went beyond the numbers, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald relays. Adebayo also hounded Julius Randle defensively, among other contributions. Spoelstra feels players who don’t put up big offensive numbers often get overlooked. “The average eye might not realize how dominant Bam’s game was to impact a win. He was dominant,” Spoelstra said. “And the shame of it is in today’s day and age, people only view that as dominant if you score 40 points or more or have some kind of gaudy stat line.”
The Wizards should seriously consider longtime NBA executive Scott Perry to be their next GM, Jerry Brewer of the Washington Post opines. The current Knicks GM is the type a multidimensional talent evaluator who could give the Wizards an identity, according to Brewer, who says Perry also has the skill set and personality to lead the organization.
What would the Wizards do if they wound up with the No. 10 pick in the draft for the second consecutive season? Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington explores that question using the RealGM draft simulator. The Wizards ended up with Kentucky point guard Cason Wallace in that simulation, which would fill their biggest need at a great value, Hughes notes.

Suggs Came On Strong In Second Half

May 2nd, 2023 at 10:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jalen Suggs showed signs of living up to his draft status during the second half of the season, Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel opines. The fifth pick of the 2021 draft appeared in just 14 of the Magic’s first 38 games due to right ankle ailments. His health improved as the season went along and he averaged 10.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.4 steals in 24.3 minutes in his final 28 games. He also knocked down 38.1% of his 3-point attempts during that stretch.
Italian Federation President Gianni Petrucci is pessimistic that Paolo Banchero, the league’s Rookie of the Year, will play in the FIBA World Cup this summer, Sportando relays. “Banchero has been overwhelmed by events in recent months. If he won’t be with us for the World Cup, we now hope for the Paris Olympics,” Petrucci said of the Magic forward.