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2022 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 17th, 2022 at 6:47am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of four prospects generally considered by experts to be a level above the rest of the class: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2022 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Detroit Pistons
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Indiana Pacers
  6. Portland Trail Blazers
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will receive this pick if it falls to No. 11 or No. 12.
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Magic, Pistons, and Thunder have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

Typically, only the top three teams in the lottery standings would have a 14.0% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, but the Thunder join that group by virtue of holding two lottery picks — there’s a 12.5% chance that their own pick will move up to No. 1 and a 1.5% chance the Clippers’ pick, which they also control, will be No. 1.

From there, the Pacers (10.5%), Trail Blazers (9.0%), Kings (7.5%), and Pelicans (6.0%) have the best odds to receive the first overall pick.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Clippers and Lakers are the only non-playoff teams that have traded away their lottery picks this year, and neither team put protections on its traded first-rounder.

The Thunder will receive the Clippers’ pick, as detailed above.

The Lakers’ pick technically still remains up for grabs, depending on the lottery results, due to a trade between New Orleans and Memphis. Here are the details on that deal:

Pelicans/Grizzlies

The Pelicans will acquire the Lakers’ pick if it lands in the top 10, while the Grizzlies will receive it if it ends up at No. 11 or 12.

Since the Lakers finished eighth in the lottery standings, there’s approximately a 99.5% chance that New Orleans will hang onto the pick. At least three teams in the 9-14 range would have to jump into the top four in order for Memphis to receive it.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • On stage: Rafael Stone (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  2. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  3. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Richard Hamilton (former Pistons player)
    • Lottery room: George David (assistant GM)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / special assistant to GM)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  5. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Kelly Krauskopf (assistant GM)
    • Lottery room: Chad Buchanan (general manager)
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Damian Lillard
    • Lottery room: Dewayne Hankins (president of business operations)
  7. Sacramento Kings

  8. New Orleans Pelicans

    • On stage: Swin Cash-Canal (VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
  9. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: David Robinson (former Spurs player / strategic partner)
    • Lottery room: Niraj Mulji (director of basketball strategy)
  10. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (president of basketball operations / general manager)
  11. New York Knicks
    • On stage: William Wesley (executive VP / senior basketball advisor)
    • Lottery room: Brock Aller (VP of basketball and strategic planning)
  12. Charlotte Hornets
  13. Cleveland Cavaliers

    • On stage: Anderson Varejao (former Cavaliers player / team ambassador)
    • Lottery room: Jon Nichols (VP of basketball strategy and personnel)

Lottery Format:

This will be the fourth year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results since the new format was implemented have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

A year ago, the results were more by-the-numbers. However, the seventh spot in the lottery standings was lucky again, this time for the Raptors, who moved up to No. 4 and grabbed eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

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Wes Unseld Jr. To Represent Wizards At Lottery

May 15th, 2022 at 10:00am CST by Arthur Hill

Hawks guard Trae Young has adopted a new offseason routine this year, writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Instead of taking his usual month off, Young was back in the gym a week after Atlanta’s loss to Miami in its first-round series. He’s undertaking a workout regimen that he plans to continue through the NBA Finals, explaining, “because that’s where I want to play.”

“I think it’s gotta be,” Young said. “It’s happened for a lot of the guys who’ve won championships and all the big-time players that’s come before me, throughout this whole league. Everybody has to go through something to push through, to get to that next step. I think this could be that thing.”

The Heat were able to rattle Young by attacking him with multiple defenders, leading to subpar numbers throughout the series. He averaged 15.4 points and 6.2 turnovers in the five games while shooting 31.9% from the field and 18.4% from three-point range.

“I think this is just a learning experience in the early chapter stage of my career that I needed to go through,” Young said. “The Heat did a great job, their defensive schemes, placement, where their guys were, switching it up, making it difficult. Just looking back at some of the mistakes I had, I know I’m going to learn from them, and it’s only going to make me better, and I think that’s a scary thing, if I’m young and I still have a lot to grow from. I think it’s a good thing that I can learn from it.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

  • Magic big man Bol Bol is continuing rehab work on his injured right foot that required surgery in January, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Bol wasn’t able to play for Orlando after being acquired in a February deal, and he’ll be a free agent this summer. The Magic can make him restricted by extending a $2.7MM qualifying offer, and it sounds like the team still believes in his future. “Bol’s working very hard,” president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said. “He’s working diligently. He’s working every day. He continues to ramp up. He’s just doing individual work right now. We’re going to be careful with him as we are with everyone to make sure he doesn’t skip steps in his rehabilitation.”
  • Speaking as part of the ReAwaken America Tour, Magic forward Jonathan Isaac explained his decision not to get the COVID-19 vaccine, per Johnny Askounis of EuroHoops. “Viewing it, it seemed forced. It seemed that there was so much pressure in doing it,” Isaac said. “I don’t see the wisdom in putting something into my body that’s not going to stop me from getting the virus or transmitting it. That is why I decided to be the only player on my team to not get vaccinated.”
  • First-year coach Wes Unseld Jr. has been selected to represent the Wizards at Tuesday’s draft lottery, the team tweeted this week. Washington has a 3% chance of landing the first pick and a 13.9% chance of moving into the top four.
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Predicting Five Draft Lottery Options For Wizards

May 14th, 2022 at 2:41pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Josh Robbins of The Athletic conducts five different version of the lottery for the Wizards, speculating on which prospect the team would draft in each scenario. The NBA’s draft lottery will be held on Tuesday. Washington has a 13.9% chance at securing a top-four pick, but as Robbins notes, the team will likely have the No. 10 or No. 11 selection. The Wizards are coming off a disappointing season, finishing with the fourth-worst record in the East at 35-47.
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Team Chemistry Failed The Wizards After A Strong Start

May 7th, 2022 at 5:17pm CST by Arthur Hill
  • Poor team chemistry was among the things that sank the Wizards after a 10-3 start, but the organization believes it has already made moves to fix it, per Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. Team president Tommy Sheppard thought the atmosphere in the locker room was better after Spencer Dinwiddie, Davis Bertans and Montrezl Harrell were moved at the trade deadline. More continuity next season could help, adds Hughes, who points out that Washington used a franchise-record 29 players this year and made significant roster changes twice in six months.
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Examining Whether Wizards Should Re-Sign Beal, How Porzingis Impacts Situation, More

May 7th, 2022 at 1:20pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Josh Robbins of The Athletic examines several Wizards-related notes in his latest mailbag, including whether the team should re-sign Bradley Beal and whether having Kristaps Porzingis makes Beal more expendable. Washington will be eligible to sign Beal to a five-year, $248MM deal. The 28-year-old’s scoring production regressed this season, as he averaged 23.2 points per game on 45% shooting, down from a career-high 31.3 points per contest on 48.5% shooting in 2020/21.
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Wizards Could Benefit From Jazz Blowing Roster Up

April 30th, 2022 at 1:16pm CST by JD Shaw
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Wizards Unlikely To Use Draft To Add Starting PG

April 27th, 2022 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams
  • The Wizards will have a lottery pick this June, but they’re unlikely to use the draft to add a starting point guard, according to Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington, who says the team figures to turn to free agency or the trade market to find that player.
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Southeast Notes: Bamba, Wizards, Winston, Todd, Hawks

April 23rd, 2022 at 9:57am CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Magic center Mohamed Bamba, who is eligible for restricted free agency this summer, hopes to stick around in Orlando long term, writes Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel.

“I want to be here,” Bamba said of his NBA future. “I just want to make that clear. I’ll let that stuff handle itself and continue to work.”

As Price details, Bamba enjoyed his best year as a pro during the 2021/22 NBA season, averaging a career-best 10.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG and 1.2 APG across a career-most 25.7 MPG as a starter alongside fellow big man Wendell Carter Jr., who was drafted one slot behind Bamba in 2018. Bamba also did a good job protecting the rim, Price notes. A career 68.5% free-throw shooter, the 7’0″ Bamba also connected on a career-best 78.1% from the charity stripe on a modest 1.0 attempts per game.

There’s more out of the Southeast Division:

  • After a disappointing 35-47 season, the Wizards face a fascinating summer. Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) provides a thorough preview of Washington’s offseason, contending that it all starts at finding a reliable point guard to play alongside shooting guard Bradley Beal, who could decline his $36.5MM player option this summer and enter free agency. Center Thomas Bryant will also be an unrestricted free agent. Marks notes that, when it comes to assets, the team possesses 10 tradable player contracts and a lottery pick in the upcoming draft.
  • Wizards head coach Wes Unseld Jr. intends to monitor the development of the team’s two most recent second-round selections, reserve point guard Cassius Winston and backup forward Isaiah Todd, writes Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. “It’s a big offseason for those two,” Unseld said. “It’s a big offseason for all of our young guys. You’re going to have a season of ebbs and flows. Consistency is the thing we’re searching for and that’s one thing that young players at times have difficulty with… I thought Cash had some really good moments. Not a ton of sample size with the Wizards, but even with [Washington’s NBAGL affiliate the Capital City Go-Go]. Both he and Isaiah had big games and great opportunities to learn and grow.” Winston averagd 12.7 PPG and 4.6 APG as a reserve with the Go-Go, while Todd logged 12.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG for Washington’s G League club.
  • While the Hawks won Game 3 on Friday to pull to within 2-1 in their first-round series, the Heat’s performance so far is showing Atlanta what the team still needs in order to make consistently deep playoff runs, writes Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. Kirschner opines that finding a great perimeter defender needs to be a top priority for the Hawks in their roster-building, as Miami All-Star small forward Jimmy Butler has largely been dominant against Atlanta wings De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter.
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Beal Has Pins Removed, Cleared For Rehab

April 21st, 2022 at 6:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bradley Beal is making progress after undergoing left wrist surgery in February. The Wizards star guard has been cleared to begin rehab work, Josh Robbins of The Athletic tweets. Beal’s cast, as well as the pins in his wrist, were removed on Wednesday.

Beal has not yet announced whether he’ll pick up his $36.4MM player option for the 2022/23 season. The expectation is that he’ll likely turn down that option in favor of free agency, even if he intends to sign a new deal with the Wizards.

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