Assessing Stocks Rumors

Assessing Stocks: Indiana Pacers

March 11th, 2012 at 11:31pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: Believe it or not, the Indiana Pacers stand at somewhat of a crossroads. This is a young, up-and-coming team with an incredibly deep assortment of talent at more than reasonable contracts. But right now, unless Paul George takes an early Tracy McGrady-like leap in quality of play, this is a team with a very definite ceiling.

Larry Bird has done a tremendous job of not only putting together assets, but assets that mesh well together. Furthermore, with each player, there is depth to replace them. This leaves the entire roster flexible. This is a team that is already a third or fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, but will always remain behind Miami and Chicago. Right now it has the liquid assets, the cap space, and the potential to be more. But flexibility of this magnitude is a temporary luxury in the
NBA and what the Pacers can be will determined over the next few months.

Prime Assets: Cap space and solid, young talent at every position. Indiana is not exactly a prime free agent destination, but fortunately the Pacers have enough cap flexibility and depth to put together a Carmelo Anthony-like deal without gutting their team like the New York Knicks did. The Pacers can put together a solid package with any combination of their roster.

Worthless Stock: Many NBA general managers are past the stage of offering max contracts to the likes of Michael Redd or Kenyon Martin. The remaining few already have their salary caps tied up in the likes of Joe Johnson. Danny Granger is the quintessential non-franchise player paid like a franchise player. As such, he represents one of the few Pacers hard to move. Too talented to give up for scraps, too overpaid to appeal other teams.

But then again…: Danny Granger and George Hill for Carmelo Anthony works too, should the Knicks rethink last year's trade.

Assessing Stocks: Houston Rockets

February 25th, 2012 at 11:09pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: The Houston Rockets have perhaps the best point guard in the NBA that isn't quite a franchise point guard in Kyle Lowry. He is entering the prime of his career just as their second best player, Luis Scola, is exiting his. Scola, coincidentally, is just about as good as you can get at power forward without being an All-Star.

And that, in a nutshell, is the Houston Rockets. A group whose individual talents promise falls just short of stardom, and whose collective talents falls somewhere between the 7th seed and just out of the playoffs in the Western Conference.

The Rockets are a team perfectly built around a superstar that no longer exists on their roster. Over the summer they were able to replace that superstar with Pau Gasol, only to have David Stern veto the trade.

Prime Assets: Kyle Lowry has been deemed untouchable in most trade scenarios, though I would strongly take a look at a Lowry for Rajon Rondo-type deal should it present itself. Lowry is the better all-around player, but like the rest of the Rockets roster, lacks a single elite skill. Rondo has a deficient jump shot that skews his team's spacing, something the Rockets would have no trouble accommodating.

With Lowry off the table, the combination of Luis Scola and Kevin Martin were once worth Pau Gasol with a third team. Perhaps they can be again.

Worthless Stock: The only redeeming value for Hasheem Thabeet right now is a team's ability to write they acquired a former no. 2 overall pick in the press releases. He and Jonny Flynn are not toxic assets, but they're certainly not helpful either.

The Rest: The Rockets do not really do bad contracts or bad players. They just don't have very many really good ones. The question is do the Rockets consolidate some of their depth to improve slightly in talent?

Assessing Stocks: Golden State Warriors

February 19th, 2012 at 9:42pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: The ownership and coaching staff has changed, but so much has remained the same for the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are in the basketball equivalent of hell, which is ninth seed purgatory. They are not quite good enough to be in the playoffs, and not bad enough to get top level talent through the draft.

The backcourt is the team's strength between Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson, but they also represent the best trade assets the team has going forward. Word is the Warriors are interested in Dwight Howard still. While it's doubtful they land him, it shows they are willing to blow things up for the right price. They need to. Even if it means taking a step or two back to start pushing forward again.

Prime Assets: The easy answer is Ellis, though the answer is not as easy as it was at the beginning of the season. Curry's ankle woes are a little concerning, and help obscure the Ellis vs. Curry debate a little.

Ellis is the Warriors' best player. Still, there are legitimate questions to how far a team can go with an undersized, high usage shooting guard not named Allen Iverson. If Ellis is your team's best player, what is the ceiling for your team? Ellis for draft picks or a frontcourt piece could work (the Utah Jazz, for example, have a plethora of big men and lack a dynamic perimeter threat). If the trade picks up an asset and drops the Warriors out of the middle of the first round and into a top ten pick over the next couple of years, it might even prove to benefit the team.

Worthless Stock: Andris Biedrins. Big, mobile big men are always going to have some value. But one on a big contract whose career is currently stalled by a phobia of free throw attempts?

The Rest: Curry should only be available for a near elite talent or top ten pick in this draft. For the former, given that Curry is on his rookie contract, he would probably have to be packaged with David Lee. Thompson could be a solid third guard on a good team eventually and merits holding onto. Dorell Wright might fetch a good first round pick for a potential playoff team, but is young, cheap, and understands his role well enough to be part of the answer going forward.

Assessing Stocks: Detroit Pistons

February 19th, 2012 at 8:46pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: The Detroit Pistons are a mess. While their trade assets aren't entirely worthless, many of them are circling the drain, leaving them in a precarious position. The Pistons have invested more time and energy into their roster than they would likely receive back in return. If all the individual pieces were worthless, it might be easier to cut their losses, discard everything, and start over.

Right now the Pistons need to diversify their portfolio. They have some rotation pieces in the backcourt in Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum, and Ben Gordon. But all four are essentially slightly different variations of the same inefficient scoring combo guard. The key is to figure which one, if any, fits best with Knight and dump the rest for whatever they can get.

Prime Assets: Greg Monroe and Knight are too young and promising to determine their full trade value, so short of a one-sided offer, it makes little sense to deal them. On a good team with a reasonable contract, Ben Gordon was once worth at least one playoff victory by himself a series. On the Pistons, his contract is a liability and his presence in the lineup hinders the development of younger players.

The leaves Tayshaun Prince as their best asset, whether as a standalone or packaged with one of their backcourt pieces. Preferably for a rotation quality pure point guard like Ramon Sessions or legitimate shooting guard to begin the process of figuring out how to best use Knight.

Worthless Stock: Charlie Villanueva. Villanueva is a toxic asset whose lone redeeming value lies in the possibility that he might salvage his value to the team or be freed this offseason via amnesty.

The Rest: Combo guards and forwards are a dime a dozen in the NBA, and those on the Pistons have hardly shown anything separating themselves from the pack. Knight and Monroe are the set pieces, any redundant skill sets or players that might take up developmental resources to those two (minutes, usage, etc.) should be considered in a deal, even if it only returns addition by subtraction.

Assessing Stocks: Denver Nuggets

February 19th, 2012 at 6:05pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: Where you value the Denver Nuggets assets and roster depends on how much value you place in superstars. On paper, the Nuggets are stocked two deep at every position and feature almost every desirable skill set a coach could want to plug into any given situation.

In Ty Lawson and Nene Hilario, the Nuggets have two offensive threats to occupy multiple defenders and a number of other players on the wings who can create off of their primary action. They have solid defenders and energetic athleticism. And yet, head coach George Karl is faced with the lingering question, “can you win without superstars?”

“There are only two or three superstars in the league anyways,” Karl said early in the season.

There is some truth to that. On any given night the Nuggets have everything Karl needs at his disposal to compete with the best teams in the NBA. The depth and versatility of the roster can in fact replicate most of the value of an elite player.

The issue is consistency and health. Over the course of a season there will be injuries (like the one Danilo Gallinari suffered) and inconsistent play, and the value of an elite player like LeBron James or Dwight Howard, is they have the ability to patch holes for stretches of time. Those players bring the same level of play every night and are able to take on more without losing efficiency.

Prime Assets: The Nuggets are in an interesting position. Because each player is above average to good, virtually everyone on the team is in play for the right price. And because their depth, the Nuggets have the luxury of upgrading talent at any position by combining multiple players without a drastic drop in quality.

Even in the era of point guards, possessing two starting quality point guards would seem superfluous. Andre Miller on his own would probably fetch a rotation player, but the Nuggets already have their fair share of those. Intrigue picks up, however, if the Nuggets were able to combine Miller with another starting quality player, a young prospect, and draft pick.

Worthless Stock: Ty Lawson. But only because the return on him would likely never exceed the value of his contract or the value of the player. So perhaps the word here shouldn’t be worthless, but priceless.

The Rest: The rest of the roster is simply intriguing filler to place a bigger trade. The Nuggets do not need to build around the fringes. Improvement will either come from within, or converting multiple assets into a blockbuster deal.

Assessing Stocks: Dallas Mavericks

February 12th, 2012 at 10:54pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: The Dallas Mavericks are an interesting defending champion in that while they are technically defending their title, they are not doing so wholeheartedly. Yes, so long as they have Dirk Nowitzki operating near peak form and a set of versatile role players that play their role they will be a tough out.

But so much of what they did last summer is geared towards what they hope to do next summer. The Mavericks hope to land one or two big name free agents next summer to set themselves up for the next few years. Any transactions they make this year will be done with their cap space and future in mind, not with competing this year. If they can land a deal that satisfies both (like a player on an expiring contract), so be it.

Prime assets: Shawn Marion is the piece the Mavericks would like to move most, preferably after the season. He is still a versatile contributor on a playoff team, and as much as the Mavericks would value him for this playoff run, they're just as interested in getting his salary off the books so they have enough room to sign two max free agents. If a deal comes up offering a rotation player with salary relief, do they pull the trigger?

Other than that, Rodrigue Beaubois represents the lone intriguing young talent they have. He is still on his rookie contract so he would have to be packaged with a veteran on a short contract to get full value in return, but the Mavericks have plenty of those.

Worthless stock: Brendan Haywood is the other player holding up a large chunk of the salary cap space the Mavericks would like to use this summer. As much as they would prefer to move him, and while he is a serviceable center, the biggest value Haywood has comes from amnestying him–a value that goes out the window in a trade.

The rest: Lamar Odom is on the last year of his contract and when right he makes the Mavericks an intriguing matchup problem, which should appeal to both creating cap space and defending their title. The same goes for Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. The rest is irrelevant interchangeable pieces that the Mavericks are taking a quick look at while looking towards next season.

Assessing Stocks: Cleveland Cavaliers

February 12th, 2012 at 8:17pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: The Cleveland Cavaliers were dealt a blow to their season with news that center Anderson Varejao is out indefinitely with a broken wrist. While the injury probably drops the Cavaliers out of contention for the Eastern Conference’s 8th playoff seed, it likely is in their best long-term interest for that very reason.

The Cavaliers are a rebuilding project. And a much better one than originally thought due to rookie Kyrie Irving outplaying all expectations. But building around a point guard like Irving can be a double-edged sword.

Point guards like Irving (see Paul, Chris) are good enough to get a team into playoff contention fairly quickly because they mask so many deficiencies. However, those deficiencies still exist and pushing forward too fast (see the New Orleans Hornets with Chris Paul) without addressing them can have serious repercussions as the team begins to reach its potential. In a way, this was part of the problem the Cavaliers had when building around LeBron James.

Instead, this team should be stockpiling as many assets as possible while developing young players to try and acquire the type of elite talent that is generally only found with top-ten draft picks.

Prime Assets: Previously the Cavaliers were not attempting to trade Varejao, though his injury might make them more willing. Varejao is the type of player that is desirable for a number of contenders and those sitting in the bottom half of playoff brackets looking to take a step up.

Ideally Varejao would return a younger, legitimate rotation player to grow with Irving and Tristan Thompson–a player who mirrors some of the same strengths and weaknesses of Varejao–or a first round pick in the 15-20 range.

Barring a Varejao trade, point guard Ramon Sessions has been a steady backup point guard for most of his career and remains the only other player on the Cavaliers likely to return a viable rotation player. For a team like the Cavaliers that needs help everywhere, they cannot afford the luxury of redundant skill sets among their best players.

Worthless stock: Tempting as it is to throw Antawn Jamison‘s name into this slot, there is always a team out there somewhere willing to take a shot at a scorer off the bench on an expiring contract. These contracts are ultimately movable, however, generally only bring back other bad or expiring contracts. Still, there is value for moving a contributing veteran to free up developmental minutes for players that might have a future with the team.

The rest: The rest of the teams is young enough to have some redeeming value (i.e. potential), but too young and too unproven to bring back anything in return. This should be an evaluation season for the young guys, and to do so they need as many minutes as possible.

Assessing Stocks: Chicago Bulls

February 12th, 2012 at 6:02pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: The Chicago Bulls are veritable billionaires in terms of roster quality. Third on ESPN's future power rankings (Insider required), the Bulls are young, deep, and talented. Furthermore, their success hinges greatly on the chemistry established by reigning MVP Derrick Rose and head coach Tom Thibodeau. The Bulls lack the sheer star power of the Miami Heat, but can close the gap through its defensive system.

That of course means any drastic roster change disrupts that chemistry, and as such the Bulls are amongst the most risk-averse teams during this season.

Prime assets: Rose is untouchable, one of the top five players in the NBA. That leaves Joakim Noah and Luol Deng as the prime trade chips with one caveat. The only deal worth disrupting the Bulls chemistry is one that lands a Dwight Howard-level talent.

Worthless stock: Carlos Boozer has a large contract and enough flaws for other teams to think twice about taking on that contract. But worthless stock does not mean worthless player. In this case it simply means Boozer's value as a player on this roster probably exceeds what he would get in return in a potential trade.

The rest: The rest of the roster features a number of interchangeable parts that fit specific roles on this team. Tweaking on the fringes of the roster would simply bring in other interchangeable parts. One interesting name brought up by our own Daniel Seco is Ray Allen for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer–a move that would somewhat consolidate the two players' skill sets into one player.

Assessing Stocks: Charlotte Bobcats

February 9th, 2012 at 10:44pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio review: This is the basketball equivalent of declaring bankruptcy. Michael Jordan mortgaged the team's future for one playoff run and the Bobcats are finally paying the ultimate price.

This is an atrocious team playing under a perfect storm of terrible circumstances (condensed season, injuries, not practice time) with nary a potential All-Star on its roster. On the bright side the team has almost purged all of its toxic assets and is under better management, leaving some hope the team can start stockpiling talent and finally begin to build the foundations of something.

Prime assets: Tyrus Thomas is the only player on the roster who might be able to fetch an established rotation player or mid first-round pick. Last year's draft picks Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo might be the perfect bankruptcy assets–players with defined NBA roles with room for growth beyond that whose immediate impact is so negligible that it won't prevent them from losing enough for their badly needed top-five pick.

Walker and Biyombo should grow to be perfect complementary players to the star or stars the Bobcats hope to draft in the next two years, or be good enough trade assets to find those players.

Toxic assets: At some point this summer either Corey Maggette or DeSagana Diop will be amnestied. The other shopped as an expiring contract. Boris Diaw is almost as bloated as his contract, which is thankfully almost over.

The rest: The Bobcats have an abundance of what I like to call trade filler across their roster. Rotation players with at least one viable NBA skill attached to a contract that might be slightly overpaid, but still falls within perfectly reasonable for a rotation player. Theoretically a team would attach these contracts to the prime asset in a trade to make contract figures work.

Gerald Henderson, D.J. Augustin, and Matt Carroll would all qualify. Unfortunately the Bobcats lack any prime assets to attach these valuable contracts to. The best thing about this roster is that it's almost completely liquidated.

Assessing Stocks: Boston Celtics

February 9th, 2012 at 9:56pm CST by Jesse Blanchard

Portfolio Review: There is a difference between a team maxed out at mediocrity, and a championship team that has aged its way there. The Boston Celtics find themselves looking up at the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls, but have just enough fight left to compete and perhaps take advantage of the right matchup or injury to make one last run.

On the one hand, Danny Ainge has expressed no fear in blowing this up and rebuilding should the opportunity present itself. On the other, the Celtics gave up all their young assets save for Rajon Rondo in building this team. And years of building on the fringes around the Big Three have left the team bereft of young assets and high picks that teams covet in trades.

Prime assets: Ainge has expressed a willingness to move any of the Big Three. Unfortunately each of them are long past the wrong side of 30 and short of finding a sudden contender holding onto another team's potential lottery pick to deal with–as the Clippers were this summer holding the Timberwolves unprotected pick–most teams with prime young assets aren't going to give away great potential for one or two years of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, or Ray Allen.

Their absolute ceiling might be a return of boom or bust prospects (think Michael Beasley with the Miami Heat) and mid-to-late first round picks.

That leaves Rajon Rondo as the Celtics best trade asset, and the only one capable of returning a sure All-Star. He also remains the Celtics best player. Which means any deal involving Rondo should be made for one last run or at the beginning of a complete teardown of this one-time championship team.

Worthless stock: Just about everything else. From Chris Wilcox to Jermaine O'Neal to Keyon Dooling, the rest of the Celtics rotation is comprised of replacement level players–generic skill sets whose contributions could be matched by plucking younger developmental players with bigger potential. The roster has limited flexibility to improve and the entirety of this season depends on the health and legs of Allen, Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo.

The one exception, diversifying: One trade the Celtics might be able to make without blowing up their playoffs hopes is moving Ray Allen for two rotation players of a lesser quality. Shooting is an easy skill set to find, even if it's not as potent as Allen. And more depth and versatility among the lineup might give the Celtics just enough punch.