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Community Shootaround: Top Restricted Free Agents

May 29th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

This year’s free agent class could have been filled with superstars. The pool of impact players has been drained, as many of them signed extensions.

There are still some intriguing names that will hit the market this summer and many of them will be restricted free agents. Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Hamidou Diallo, Gary Trent Jr., Josh Hart and Lauri Markkanen are some of the players who could receive offer sheets.

Three other names stand out on the list of RFAs – John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen.

It’s rare that a highly productive young big like Collins would reach restricted free agency at this point in his career. Collins, 23, averaged 17.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on a playoff team and he’s a career 38% shooter from deep.

Yet the Hawks seem lukewarm, at best, on Collins as a long-term partner for franchise player Trae Young. He reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer, believing he could get a max deal, or something very close to it, in free agency.

Atlanta need only to extend a $7.7MM qualifying offer in order to make him a restricted free agent, giving the team the option of matching an offer sheet.

Collins has the opportunity to enhance his resume with a strong playoff showing. He contributed a ho-hum 12 points and seven rebounds to Atlanta’s Game 1 win on Sunday but counterpart Julius Randle shot just 6-for-23 from the field. Collins’ second postseason game was a disaster, as he went scoreless in 12, foul-filled minutes.

He contributed 14 points and six rebounds in Game 3 on Friday but, more importantly, helped to hold Randle to a 2-for-15 shooting night.

Ball’s qualifying offer is $14.36MM, so New Orleans has a tougher decision to make. Ball has long been rumored to be a primary target for the Bulls, who are seeking a natural point guard.

Ball’s name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Pelicans choose to make him unrestricted. That would leave open the possibility of a sign-and-trade, rather than getting nothing if they decline to match an offer sheet.

However, it’s probably a safe assumption that Pelicans will extend the QO and see if Ball’s offers fall into their price range.

In contrast, the Cavaliers acquired Allen as part of the multi-team James Harden blockbuster with the intent of re-signing him. Allen, whose QO is $7.7MM, averaged 13.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 1.4 BPG after joining Cleveland.

Allen didn’t exactly turn around the Cavaliers’ fortunes but they seem committed to retaining the 23-year-old center. So if another team covets Allen, it will have to make a substantial offer to force the Cavs to think twice about matching.

That leads us to our question of the day: Among John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen, which restricted free agent will receive the biggest offer this summer?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion on this topic. We look forward to your input.

McMillan Faces Scrutiny For Rotation Decisions

May 27th, 2021 at 10:32am CST by Luke Adams

LeBron James (via Twitter) echoed Westbrook’s call for the NBA to protect its players, and the incident in Philadelphia isn’t the only one involving fans this week. A Knick fan appeared to spit on Hawks guard Trae Young on Wednesday (link via Bleacher Report), and Jason Quick of The Athletic notes (via Twitter) that multiple Trail Blazers players took issue with some Nuggets fans as the team was leaving the court in Game 2.

Hawks head coach Nate McMillan found his rotation decisions under the spotlight following Wednesday’s loss, but he said he was happy with his game plan, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. “Our starters played 35-plus minutes. That’s a lot of minutes for those guys,” McMillan said. “Trae plays 35. Bogi (Bogdan Bogdanovic) plays 35. Clint (Capela) is at 36. That’s a lot of minutes for starters. … I thought we got a little gassed in that first half. I think we have to give those guys a little breather. They’re not going to be able to play 40-48 minutes.”

Knicks Notes: Randle, T. Young, Noel, Robinson

May 26th, 2021 at 6:30pm CST by Arthur Hill

Julius Randle isn’t just the NBA’s Most Improved Player, he’s also “a Thibs guy.” That’s how Knicks teammate Taj Gibson described Randle to Nick Friedell of ESPN in explaining how he was able to raise his game under coach Tom Thibodeau.

Randle averaged career highs this season with 24.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists and is a strong candidate for All-NBA honors. He also appeared in all but one of the team’s 72 games.

“When you’re a Thibs Guy that just shows that he can count on you,” Gibson explained. “Ups and downs, highs and lows, you know that he believes in you and he believes that you can go in there and help the team overcome — through injuries, through it all. It’s being a tough-minded guy, fight for the team.”

Thibodeau traces Randle’s improvement back to a meeting they had shortly after the new coach was hired last July. Thibodeau said Randle showed up in exceptional shape and expressed a willingness to be coached.

“You could see how highly motivated he was,” Thibodeau said. “And then when we had our short bubble, just his willingness to come in and work and lead and I could see how hungry he was. I felt like this was the guy that could help set the tone for us.”

There’s more from New York:

Knicks players aren’t buying into the idea of Trae Young as the newest villain at Madison Square Garden, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post. The Hawks guard hit a game-winning floater in the final second of Game 1, then put his finger to his lips as a sign for the crowd to be quiet. “That’s basketball, man,” Derrick Rose said. “He came in, we played a great game and the crowd is supposed to do that, his reaction is supposed to be that way. It’s supposed to amp up and bring that atmosphere and that environment to where it is right now. I mean, that’s what I’m used to.”
Nerlens Noe l will be in the starting lineup for tonight’s Game 2, the Knicks announced (via Twitter). Noel landed awkwardly and limped off the court midway through the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game. Thibodeau said Noel “tweaked his ankle” and was a limited participant in practice, Berman adds in a separate story.
Center Mitchell Robinson remains “several steps away” from returning after surgery on his right foot, tweets Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic. Addressing reporters before tonight’s game, Thibodeau said Robinson hasn’t been cleared for practice, adding, “We’re not taking any chances with him.”

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference First-Round Series

May 25th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As we discussed on Monday, the postseason is off to a fascinating start in the Western Conference, where the underdogs in all four series won Game One. The results in the Eastern Conference haven’t been quite as surprising so far.

The No. 1 Sixers and No. 2 Nets took care of the Wizards and Celtics in their respective Game Ones. Although Washington and Boston were competitive, the star power of the higher seeds may be too much for the two play-in teams — Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris racked up a combined 67 points for Philadelphia on Sunday, while Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden scored 82 of Brooklyn’s 104 points on Saturday.

Meanwhile, after upsetting the Bucks in last year’s second round, the Heat have dug themselves a 2-0 hole in this year’s first round, and Monday’s loss was especially one-sided. Milwaukee poured in 46 first-quarter points and 22 total three-pointers en route to a blowout victory.

Based on what we’ve seen so far, the most exciting Eastern Conference series in the first round should be the one featuring two teams that have spent the last few years out of the postseason. The Knicks and Hawks went down to the wire on Sunday, with Trae Young clinching an Atlanta victory by hitting a floater with less than a second left in regulation.

The Celtics, Wizards, and Heat still have plenty of time to turn things around, but oddsmakers view it as a long shot that any of these three clubs will pull off a comeback. BetOnline.ag currently lists the Nets as -2750 favorites, meaning that if you want to bet on Brooklyn to win the series, you’d have to risk $2,750 in order to win just $100. The Sixers (-1800) and Bucks (-1000) are also heavy favorites.

The Hawks’ Game 1 upset has made them the frontrunners over the Knicks, but Vegas still views that series as practically a toss-up compared to the other three — Atlanta is only a -255 favorite.

We want to know what you think. Will the East’s top three seeds hold on and win their respective series with relative ease, or will the Celtics, Wizards, and/or Heat come alive and make things interesting? Do you expect a long series between the Hawks and Knicks? Who are you picking to win that one?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

2021 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results

May 25th, 2021 at 1:11pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.

The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
- Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
- Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).

Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.

However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.

Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.

The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.

The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.

Hawks Notes: Capela, McMillan, Huerter, Arena Capacity

May 22nd, 2021 at 4:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

Clint Capela is in a new position as he prepares for his first playoff series with the Hawks, writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Capela was always one of the younger guys with the Rockets, who reached the playoffs every season he was in Houston. Now at age 27, he is serving as a mentor to Atlanta’s younger players, many of whom are about to have their first playoff experience.

“I really feel like (I’m in) a new role here, that vet role,” said Capela, who was traded to the Hawks at the 2020 deadline, but didn’t get to suit up before the pandemic hit. “So I get to share my experience, and I really feel (listened to) about everything I say. It’s really fun to be part of it.”

There’s more from Atlanta:

Coach Nate McMillan insists comments he made this week that drew a $25K fine from the league were “taken out of context,” according to Andrew Lopez of ESPN. McMillan seemed to indicate he was concerned the Hawks wouldn’t get a fair shake from the officials in the first-round series against the Knicks because the NBA benefits from having New York in the playoffs. “My intentions were never to suggest any type of bias as it relates to the league and our upcoming playoff series,” McMillan explained. “This type of narrative does not in any way represent me and what I stand for as coach of the Atlanta Hawks.”
There is “strong momentum” toward McMillan receiving a long-term contract, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (video link). No negotiations have taken place yet, Charania adds, but they’re expected to happen after Atlanta’s playoff run ends. McMillan was 27-11 after taking over for Lloyd Price at the start of March, and the Hawks climbed from 10th to fifth place in the East.
The Knicks won all three regular season matchups with Atlanta, but Hawks forward Kevin Huerter welcomes the opportunity to face them in the first round, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. “We feel really good about ourselves,” Huerter said. “They beat us three times this year, but all three games we could have won. We like the matchup and are ready for the challenge.’’
The Hawks will increase seating at State Farm Arena to nearly full capacity for the playoffs, Spencer adds in a separate story. There will be sections for vaccinated and unvaccinated fans.

Adam Silver Talks Play-In, ’21/22 Start Date, Arena Capacities

May 21st, 2021 at 3:06pm CST by Luke Adams

During an appearance on Friday’s episode of Keyshawn, J-Will and Zubin on ESPN Radio (video link), NBA commissioner Adam Silver made it clear that his preference would be for the play-in tournament to be a mainstay for years to come, as long as the teams and players are on board.

“I haven’t made any secret that I want it to be (around long-term),” Silver said, per ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.

The Lakers/Warriors play-in game on Wednesday was a major ratings success, becoming ESPN’s most-watched NBA telecast since the 2019 Western Conference Finals, per a press release. Silver acknowledged that not all of this year’s play-in games have been on the same level as that one, but suggested that the positive effects of the play-in format go beyond this week’s TV ratings.

According to Silver, the format resulted in a higher quality of play – and stronger ratings – during the final few weeks of the regular season as teams battled for positioning in the standings.

“(It) was causing teams, who frankly otherwise may have thrown in the towel some number of weeks back, to fight for those last playoff spots,” Silver said.

Here’s more from the NBA commissioner:

Silver confirmed today that the NBA’s plan is for the 2021/22 season to begin at its usual time in October. That would mean two consecutive shorter-than-usual offseasons in 2020 and 2021, but Silver pointed out that the break this summer wouldn’t be as brief as it was a year ago.
Silver believes we could see sellout crowds – or close to it – for the NBA Finals in July, as Bontemps details. “I think it’s very possible that come July, when our Finals will be, you’ll see essentially full buildings,” Silver said. The commissioner, who added that “close to 80%” of the NBA’s players have received COVID-19 vaccinations, cautioned that the league will still be “fairly conservative” about filling seats on or near the court.
Silver took exception to the idea that the NBA needs its big-market teams to play well to be successful, suggesting that superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo can turn even small-market clubs like the Bucks into marquee franchises (video link). He also explained why the NBA fined Hawks coach Nate McMillan for suggesting the league wants to see the Knicks do well: “Nate’s a veteran coach and he knows better. He’s trying to inspire his team to try and suggest the league would somehow prefer some teams over others, and it’s just not the case. He knows it and he’s just got a young team and wants to get them going.”

Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

Nate McMillan Fined By NBA For Comments About Knicks

May 20th, 2021 at 2:41pm CST by Luke Adams

Hawks head coach Nate McMillan has been fined $25K by the NBA for “detrimental public comments asserting bias,” the league announced today in a press release.

As Chris Kirschner of The Athletic relays, McMillan was fined for comments he made during his session with reporters on Wednesday, when he was asked about national media members picking the Knicks to defeat the Hawks in round one of the playoffs.

“I’ve talked about that to the team a lot,” McMillan said. “I’ve gone as far as saying, ‘The league wants this. They need this.’ New York is a big market. It’s a big market for the league. New York has been out of the playoffs for a number of years. This is a team that our league — they want to see. … I think the NBA is excited about them being back in the playoffs.”

McMillan was essentially just reiterating a widely-held belief that the NBA prefers to see teams in large market with huge fanbases succeed, as he went on to liken the Knicks to the Lakers and Celtics.

While McMillan’s comments seem relatively harmless, it’s understandable that the NBA didn’t appreciate the implication that the league might make an effort to push the Knicks past the Hawks — especially when that implication came from Atlanta’s head coach.

Hawks Notes: McMillan, Offseason, Reddish, Collins, Young

May 20th, 2021 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Praising the job that interim head coach Nate McMillan has done since replacing Lloyd Pierce on the Hawks‘ sidelines, general manager Travis Schlenk said that McMillan has been especially adept at tweaking the team’s plays to fit specific players’ skills and has been “unbelievably consistent with his messaging,” writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

While it seems like a given that McMillan will be offered Atlanta’s head coaching job on a permanent basis, Schlenk said he has yet to have that conversation with the veteran coach, as Spencer relays.

“Obviously he’s done a great job, I’ve said that publicly. I’ve told Nate that, but our stance is still the same,” Schlenk said. “We’re going to let the season play out and then once the season plays out, we’ll sit down and have conversations. But to this point, short of me telling him he’s doing a great job, we haven’t had any more in-depth conversations.

“That’s quite frankly the way Nate likes it and wants to do it as well. We’re obviously extremely pleased with the job he has done; I have no problem saying that… But we haven’t had any conversations.”

Here’s more on the Hawks:

Asked about the possibility of bringing back largely the same roster for next season, Schlenk said he wouldn’t be opposed to that, though he acknowledged that a few changes could be coming, according to Spencer. “Every free agency, draft, we’ll add players through the draft, we have two picks this year. And then free agency and the trade season,” Schlenk said. “But listen, if this same group came back, it wouldn’t bother me at all. But we’ll have to see how the draft and free agency play out.”
Cam Reddish (right Achilles soreness) is able to conduct unrestricted individual workouts and is participating in team practices on a limited basis, according to the Hawks, who said the swingman will be reassessed in 10-14 days. Reddish isn’t expected to have a real role even if he’s able to return before the Hawks’ playoff run ends, but Schlenk said the plan is to have him play for Atlanta’s Summer League squad in August, as Spencer details.
Asked about the Hawks’ top offseason priorities, Schlenk identified John Collins‘ restricted free agency and the team’s two draft picks as the most important matters to sort out, according to Spencer. The Hawks’ GM also mentioned Lou Williams‘ unrestricted free agency and Kris Dunn‘s player option decision as issues to address.
Trae Young will likely receive a new deal from the Hawks this summer, but Schlenk was noncommittal when asked about the players who are eligible for rookie scale extensions. “To be honest, I haven’t even really talked with any of (Young’s) people yet about any of that stuff,” Schlenk said, per Spencer. “Kevin (Huerter) and Trae are eligible. We’ll certainly look to talk to their groups at the appropriate time.”