- Hawks power forward John Collins, a restricted free agent this summer, can help secure himself a huge payday with a strong performance against Knicks All-Star Julius Randle in Atlanta’s first-round matchup, writes Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Collins has stepped up in a crucial season, proving his mettle on both sides of the ball, though Cunningham notes that the stretch four can still afford to develop as a ball-handler. “If I know one thing, I am going to watch a lot of (game) film, get my body ready and I’m going to be laser-focused,” Collins said of his preparation for the upcoming series. “I don’t necessarily think I have anything to prove, but I’m coming to compete.”
- While the Hawks entered the season with playoff expectations, team CEO Steve Koonin admitted in a Q&A with Chris Kirschner of The Athletic that he didn’t expect the team to finish in a tie for the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference. “I would say that I think we’ve exceeded all of the expectations we had internally,” Koonin said. “… I think if it wasn’t for the Knicks, this would be the biggest story in the NBA.”
Hawks guard Brandon Goodwin has been diagnosed with a minor respiratory condition that will keep him out the remainder of the season, the team tweets.
Goodwin has appeared in 47 games, including five starts, this season. He averaged 4.9 PPG and 2.0 APG in 13.2 MPG during the regular season.
Goodwin’s playing time fluctuated, depending on how many backcourt injuries the team had at any given time. The 25-year-old point guard wasn’t expected to be part of the playoff rotation — he only made two brief appearances in games this month. Veteran Lou Williams is the primary backup to Trae Young.
Goodwin, who was undrafted out of Florida Gulf Coast, played on a $1.7MM contract this season. The front office would need to extend him a $2.1MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent this summer.
Suns head coach Monty Williams has won the 2020/21 Michael H. Goldberg award, as voted on by the National Basketball Coaches Association, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
This award, introduced in 2017 and named after longtime NBCA executive director Michael H. Goldberg, is voted on by the NBA’s 30 head coaches, none of whom can vote for himself. However, it isn’t the NBA’s official Coach of the Year award, which is voted on by media members and is represented by the Red Auerbach Trophy. The winner of that award will be announced later in the year.
Williams earned the Coaches Association’s award after leading the Suns to a 51-21 record, good for second in the NBA. The club had the league’s sixth-ranked defense and seventh-ranked offense, Wojnarowski notes.
The Suns, who were 19-63 in 2018/19, became just the fifth team in NBA history to improve by at least 15 games in back-to-back seasons, per Woj. Williams accomplished that feat in his first two years in Phoenix despite dealing with pandemic-shortened seasons, making the feat even more impressive.
According to Wojnarowski, Scott Brooks (Wizards), Michael Malone (Nuggets), Nate McMillan (Hawks), Doc Rivers (Sixers), Quin Snyder (Jazz), and Tom Thibodeau (Knicks) were among the other coaches who received votes.
The previous winners of this award are as follows:
- 2020: Mike Budenholzer and Billy Donovan
- 2019: Mike Budenholzer
- 2018: Dwane Casey
- 2017: Mike D’Antoni and Erik Spoelstra
Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter, limited to just 21 games this season due to a pesky right knee injury, has seen the knee responding well after returning to the court for Atlanta Monday, tweets Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.
Kirschner tweets that Hunter will miss Wednesday’s contest against the Wizards for scheduled maintenance on the knee, but will be available on the second night of the Hawks’ latest back-to-back, Thursday against the Magic.
Hunter had a nonsurgical procedure last month to treat remaining soreness in the knee. The 23-year-old forward out of Virginia, selected with the fourth pick in the 2019 NBA draft, has averaged career highs of 15.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.9 SPG and 0.5 BPG in his second NBA season with the Hawks.
- Chris Kirschner and John Hollinger of The Athletic assess the offseason of the seemingly playoff-bound Hawks, including decisions facing the club on restricted free agent big man John Collins and disappointing 2019 lottery selection Cam Reddish. Kirschner and Hollinger wonder if Reddish should be flipped now should an improvement at the bench small forward position become available via trade, or if Atlanta should wait to see if he improves while still on his rookie deal. Collins has evolved into a valuable two-way contributor, and the speculation revolves more around the price point at which he will be re-signed rather than whether or not he’ll be brought back.
The Mavericks are in good shape to avoid a play-in game, but they may have to finish the regular season without big men Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber, writes Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.
Porzingis has already been declared out for today’s game against the Cavaliers, marking the sixth straight game he will miss and the ninth in the last 10 games. He suffered a sprained left ankle on March 22, then returned three games later and had to leave with soreness in his right knee. He tested the knee before Friday’s game, shooting for about 15 minutes.
Kleber has sat out the past three games with pain in his right Achilles. He is officially listed as questionable for today, but coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t expect him to play.
“Not having Kleber or Porzingis puts us in a more precarious situation,” Carlisle said. “But we’ve just got to figure it out. Five games left. Every game is super meaningful. We understand it. We’re just going to stay in the present, stick to the process and keep working.”
Here are some more injury-related updates:
- Celtics forward Jaylen Brown will miss today’s showdown with the Heat because of a sprained right ankle, tweets Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald. The team had hoped Brown could be ready, but he will sit out his third straight game. Robert Williams is considered probable for today with turf toe, but coach Brad Stevens said there will be a lot of game-time decisions for him for the rest of the season, Murphy adds (via Twitter).
- Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter will be a game-time decision at best on Monday, according to Kevin Chouinard of NBA.com (Twitter link). Coach Nate McMillan indicated that a final decision will be made after today’s practice and Monday’s walkthrough. Hunter has missed the past 24 games and has only played twice since January 29.
- Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. is dealing with blurry vision and slightly impaired depth perception, tweets Josh Robbins of The Athletic. He will miss tonight’s game with a left eye abrasion (Twitter link).
- Rockets coach Stephen Silas said there’s no timetable for a return by guard Avery Bradley, who is out for personal reasons, relays Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston (Twitter link).
The Hawks have assembled a roster that could be a surprise force in the East when the playoffs start, writes Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. General manager Travis Schlenk focused on adding shooting over the offseason, signing Bogdan Bogdanovic as a free agent and trading for Danilo Gallinari and Tony Snell.
Atlanta made a powerful impression on the Suns this week, putting up 135 points in a 32-point victory.
“They have a lot of guys who can knock down shots, but not just 3-point shots,” Phoenix coach Monty Williams said. “Bogdanovic and Trae (Young) are two guys who can get into the paint and make shots creating off the dribble. (Clint) Capela has been huge for them. He generates offense diving and gets extra possessions. His defense covers up a lot of the mistakes that the guards can make. Gallinari is a versatile scorer. They’re deep. They look like a playoff team. They look like they’re getting into playoff shape. I don’t think many teams want to play them if they’re going to continue to shoot the ball like that.”
There’s more on the Hawks:
- Lottery pick Onyeka Okongwu hasn’t been impactful during his rookie season, playing just 11.6 minutes per night and averaging 4.2 points and 3.0 rebounds, but he’s turned in some recent performances that may cause coach Nate McMillan to consider him for the postseason rotation, Kirschner adds. One of those came against the Suns, when he had 14 points and seven rebounds off the bench. “A young guy like that, he seems to get better each time he steps on the floor,” McMillan said. “… As long as he continues to play like that and show growth, he’ll get minutes. This year is basically a year for him to get his feet wet and get out there and just play.”
- De’Andre Hunter continues to make progress toward returning from an injured right knee, tweets Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He was able to play five-on-five today, and the team will wait to see how his knee responds Sunday before planning his next step.
- Former Hawks guard Rajon Rondo praised the organization this week for how it handled his trade to the Clippers, relays KL Chouinard of NBA.com (Twitter link). “Travis (Schlenk) and I talked a couple of days before and that morning as well,” Rondo said on a TNT interview. “We had a conversation. It was a pleasant one, and one that I never had in my entire career. Big ups to the Hawks organization. I wish those guys well.”
Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southeast Division:
Nemanja Bjelica, Heat, 32, PF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20.5MM deal in 2018
There was a lot of bellyaching in Sacramento this season when Bjelica’s minutes were basically handed to Marvin Bagley III, as the Kings evaluated whether to make the 2018 No. 2 overall pick part of their long-term plans. Bjelica didn’t play for a month until injuries forced the Kings’ hands in February. He got a fresh start with Miami when it acquired him at the trade deadline. It hasn’t worked out.
Bjelica has been a non-factor while playing spot minutes. His 3-point shooting has tanked without steady playing time and that’s his top asset. Bjelica might wind up back in Europe unless he’s willing to accept a second-unit role at a much lower salary than he’s made the last three seasons.
Daniel Gafford, Wizards, 22, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6.1MM deal in 2019
When NBA analysts look at which trade deadline acquisitions have made the biggest impact, no one would have guessed that Gafford would be at or near the top of the list. He’s limited offensively but on his best nights, he’s a ferocious rebounder and shot-blocker.
Gafford is averaging 10.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 2.0 BPG in 17.9 MPG for a team that has been decimated by frontcourt injuries. His $1.78MM salary for next season doesn’t fully guarantee until next January. The Wizards hold a $1.93MM option on the 2022/23 season. Rest assured, Washington will keep Gafford around.
John Collins, Hawks, 23, PF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $11MM deal in 2017
Collins could be the most intriguing free agent on the market this summer. The Hawks can make him a restricted free agency by extending him a $7.7MM qualifying offer. That’s a safe assumption. From there, things will get very interesting. Collins’ name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter – he reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer with the hope of getting the max, or something close to it, in restricted free agency. Does any other team value Collins as a max-type player? We’ll find out when the market opens.
James Ennis, Magic, 30, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $3.33MM deal in 2020
The Magic brought back Ennis on a one-year deal for a team with playoff aspirations. Ennis was a starter the first half of the season until the front office decided to hit the reset button. With Orlando in total rebuild mode, Ennis will be seeking a new team this summer.
With the Magic focusing on their youth, Ennis hasn’t played this month, supposedly due to a sore calf. He’s passed through seven teams during his seven seasons in the league. Ennis will likely be looking at a one-year, veteran’s minimum deal for a club seeking insurance at small forward.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Earlier in the week, we noted that a fascinating race is shaping up in the 5-7 range of the Western Conference and asked whether you expect the Mavericks, Lakers, or Trail Blazers to finish in the seventh spot, making them subject to at least one play-in game.
While it may not have a narrative as compelling as the defending champions being forced to participate in a play-in tournament, the Eastern Conference is also producing a fascinating race in the 4-7 range.
Currently, the Knicks (37-29) control the No. 4 seed, followed by the Hawks (37-31) at No. 5. The Celtics and Heat are in a dead heat for sixth place, though their 35-31 records mean they’re actually tied with Atlanta in the loss column.
New York and Atlanta were among the Eastern Conference’s bottom-feeders a year ago, whereas Boston and Miami met in the 2020 Eastern Finals and entered the season expecting to be among the top five teams in the conference again. Now it seems very possible that either the Celtics or Heat will finish at No. 7 and host the first play-in game.
Here are the four teams’ remaining schedules:
- Knicks: at PHX, at LAC, at LAL, vs. SAS, vs. CHA, vs. BOS (one back-to-back)
- Hawks: vs. WSH, vs. WSH, vs. ORL, vs. HOU (one back-to-back)
- Celtics: at CHI, vs. MIA, vs. MIA, at CLE, at MIN, at NYK (two back-to-backs)
- Heat: vs. MIN, at BOS, at BOS, vs. PHI, at MIL, at DET (one back-to-back)
Although the Knicks have the most room for error, they also have the most challenging schedule of these four Eastern teams, especially if LeBron James and Anthony Davis are available for the Lakers in the final game of that West Coast road trip. The Knicks will finish their season with three games at home, but all three of their opponents in those games will be competing all-out for playoff positioning.
As hot as Washington has been, the Hawks easily have the most favorable remaining schedule of these four teams, with only four games left, including a pair against bottom-five teams in the NBA, Orlando and Houston. They’re in good position to clinch a top-six seed, especially if they win at least once vs. the Wizards.
The two upcoming games between the Celtics and Heat loom large in the race to avoid the play-in. Boston is 1-0 against Miami so far this season and will host both of those games, giving the Celtics the upper hand to clinch the tiebreaker and stay ahead of Pat Riley‘s club in the standings.
The fact that the Heat will follow up those two games vs. the Celtics by playing Philadelphia and Milwaukee while the C’s take on Cleveland and Minnesota further tilts the scales in Boston’s favor, though Jimmy Butler doesn’t sound worried about the Heat’s schedule.
One factor working in the Heat’s favor is that they hold a tiebreaker edge over the Knicks (but not Atlanta). The Celtics, meanwhile, are the only one of the four teams with two back-to-back sets, which may hurt them a little.
What do you think? Will the defending Eastern Conference champs end up in the No. 7 seed, taking part in the play-in tournament, or will they be able to pass one of the teams above them to clinch a top-six spot?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
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The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:
- A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
- A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.
In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.
Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.
Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.
- Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
- Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
- Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
- Malik Monk (Hornets)
Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.
Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.
Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.
- John Collins (Hawks)
- Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.
Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.
- Bruce Brown (Nets)
- Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
- Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
- Duncan Robinson (Heat)
- Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)
Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.
Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).
After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.
Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.