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Poll: No. 7 Seed In Eastern Conference

May 7th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier in the week, we noted that a fascinating race is shaping up in the 5-7 range of the Western Conference and asked whether you expect the Mavericks, Lakers, or Trail Blazers to finish in the seventh spot, making them subject to at least one play-in game.

While it may not have a narrative as compelling as the defending champions being forced to participate in a play-in tournament, the Eastern Conference is also producing a fascinating race in the 4-7 range.

Currently, the Knicks (37-29) control the No. 4 seed, followed by the Hawks (37-31) at No. 5. The Celtics and Heat are in a dead heat for sixth place, though their 35-31 records mean they’re actually tied with Atlanta in the loss column.

New York and Atlanta were among the Eastern Conference’s bottom-feeders a year ago, whereas Boston and Miami met in the 2020 Eastern Finals and entered the season expecting to be among the top five teams in the conference again. Now it seems very possible that either the Celtics or Heat will finish at No. 7 and host the first play-in game.

Here are the four teams’ remaining schedules:

Knicks: at PHX, at LAC, at LAL, vs. SAS, vs. CHA, vs. BOS (one back-to-back)
Hawks: vs. WSH, vs. WSH, vs. ORL, vs. HOU (one back-to-back)
Celtics: at CHI, vs. MIA, vs. MIA, at CLE, at MIN, at NYK (two back-to-backs)
Heat: vs. MIN, at BOS, at BOS, vs. PHI, at MIL, at DET (one back-to-back)

Although the Knicks have the most room for error, they also have the most challenging schedule of these four Eastern teams, especially if LeBron James and Anthony Davis are available for the Lakers in the final game of that West Coast road trip. The Knicks will finish their season with three games at home, but all three of their opponents in those games will be competing all-out for playoff positioning.

As hot as Washington has been, the Hawks easily have the most favorable remaining schedule of these four teams, with only four games left, including a pair against bottom-five teams in the NBA, Orlando and Houston. They’re in good position to clinch a top-six seed, especially if they win at least once vs. the Wizards.

The two upcoming games between the Celtics and Heat loom large in the race to avoid the play-in. Boston is 1-0 against Miami so far this season and will host both of those games, giving the Celtics the upper hand to clinch the tiebreaker and stay ahead of Pat Riley‘s club in the standings.

The fact that the Heat will follow up those two games vs. the Celtics by playing Philadelphia and Milwaukee while the C’s take on Cleveland and Minnesota further tilts the scales in Boston’s favor, though Jimmy Butler doesn’t sound worried about the Heat’s schedule.

One factor working in the Heat’s favor is that they hold a tiebreaker edge over the Knicks (but not Atlanta). The Celtics, meanwhile, are the only one of the four teams with two back-to-back sets, which may hurt them a little.

What do you think? Will the defending Eastern Conference champs end up in the No. 7 seed, taking part in the play-in tournament, or will they be able to pass one of the teams above them to clinch a top-six spot?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

May 7th, 2021 at 10:52am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
Malik Monk (Hornets)

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

John Collins (Hawks)
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Bruce Brown (Nets)
Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
Duncan Robinson (Heat)
Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Clint Capela On Track For $500K Bonus

May 6th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As Bobby Marks of ESPN notes (via Twitter), Hawks center Clint Capela passed the 1,757-minute threshold on Wednesday, making him eligible to earn a $500K bonus based on defensive rebound percentage. Capela needs that number to be higher than 30% to receive his bonus — it’s currently a league-best 34.4%, per Basketball-Reference.

Hawks Notes: McMillan, Young, Capela, Shooting

May 5th, 2021 at 10:30am CST by Luke Adams

After starting the season with a 14-20 record, the Hawks have gone 22-10 since Nate McMillan took over as the team’s head coach. The role McMillan has played in turning around Atlanta’s season hasn’t been lost on leading scorer Trae Young, who appeared on Adrian Wojnarowski’s Woj Pod this week and praised the Hawks’ head coach for “connecting with the players.”

Asked about McMillan’s potential future with the team, Young said he’d be surprised if the interim coach isn’t retained beyond 2020/21.

“I couldn’t see a scenario where he’s not back with us,” Young said. “The way we’re winning right now. If we go into the playoffs and do really well, it’s hard to see him not back next year. At the end of the day it’s not up to me, but as a player, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be back.”

While Young is right that the decision won’t ultimately be up to him, Hawks management will likely take the All-Star guard’s opinion into account when they determine what’s next for McMillan, who looks like a pretty safe bet to have his interim label removed.

Here’s more on the Hawks:

In an in-depth profile, Zach Lowe of ESPN examines the growth of Hawks center Clint Capela, who has gone from a rookie the Rockets initially viewed as a draft-and-stash prospect to the anchor of Atlanta’s defense and a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Within his story on Capela, Lowe cites sources who say the Hawks discussed the possibility of trading for Andre Drummond and Steven Adams before ultimately acquiring Capela from Houston a year ago. Atlanta believed that elements of Capela’s pick-and-roll game with James Harden would work for Trae Young, Lowe notes.
After finishing dead-last in three-point percentage a year ago, the Hawks prioritized shooting in the offseason when they signed Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari to lucrative multiyear deals, and those moves have helped make the Hawks a playoff team, writes Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Bogdanovic (42.0% on threes) and Gallinari (41.6%) have been two of the club’s most reliable marksmen in 2020/21.

Attendance To Increase For Postseason

May 3rd, 2021 at 7:52pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Forward Cam Reddish might not realize his true potential with the Hawks, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic opines. Reddish could be part of a package to acquire a star player as the franchise aims to become a true title contender. Injuries have limited Reddish to 26 games in his second season and he didn’t shoot well prior to being sidelined in February. Reddish was the 10th overall pick in the 2019 draft.
The Hawks have been given approval to increase attendance for postseason games to 7,625 fans, approximately 45% of State Farm Arena’s full capacity, according to a team press release. The Hawks opened the season with no fans in attendance before increasing capacity to 1,300 fans on January 26 and 3,000 fans on March 13.

Injury Notes: Porzingis, Hart, Adams, Hayward, Walker, Hartenstein, Hunter, Beverley

May 1st, 2021 at 7:44pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Mavericks will hold center Kristaps Porzingis out of both games this weekend as he deals with pain in his right knee, tweets Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News. “He’s going to rehab and work out,” coach Rick Carlisle told reporters. “He’s doing better than he was two nights ago in Detroit. Things are moving in a good direction.”

Porzingis was also dealing with a sprained left ankle last week, so Thursday’s game against the Pistons marked the only time he has played since April 22. Carlisle said he had no other specifics to offer and no timetable beyond this weekend. He added that Porzingis is “very diligent” about rehab work.

There’s more injury news from around the league:

The Pelicans aren’t sure if guard Josh Hart will be able to return before the end of the regular season, according to Jim Eichenhofer (Twitter link). Hart had surgery April 6 to fix a torn UCL in his right thumb. “We knew going in that his timetable to get back (in uniform) would be the last week to 10 days (of the regular season), coach Stan Van Gundy said. “We’ll have to wait and see as we get later into next week.”
Pelicans center Steven Adams suffered a sprained toe this week, but Van Gundy said it’s a day-to-day issue and Adams should be available for the rest of the season (Twitter link from Andrew Lopez of ESPN).
Hornets forward Gordon Hayward no longer needs a walking boot for his sprained right foot, tweets Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer.
Celtics guard Kemba Walker is listed as doubtful for Sunday with a strain in his left side, according to Tim Bontemps of ESPN (Twitter link). It would be the fourth straight missed game for Walker.
Cavaliers center Isaiah Hartenstein was able to work out at the arena tonight for the first time since entering concussion protocol, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (Twitter link). Hartenstein has missed the past four games.
Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter, who has been out since March 23 with a knee injury, hasn’t been able to work out for several days, tweets Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. Coach Nate McMillan said he has no idea if Hunter will be able to play again this season.
Clippers guard Patrick Beverley may be able to return in the “next couple games” if his left hand continues to improve, coach Tyronn Lue told Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times (Twitter link).

Injury Notes: Hornets, Huerter, Warren, DSJ, Bagley

April 28th, 2021 at 9:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Hornets will see if LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are ready for game action during their off days Thursday and Friday, according to Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer. Ball had surgery March 23 on his fractured right wrist, while Monk has been sidelined since April 1 with a sprained ankle. Both players will take part in 2-on-2 and 3-on-3 scrimmages over the next two days.

The news isn’t as encouraging for Gordon Hayward, Bonnell adds. He’s still wearing a protective boot on his injured right foot and there’s no timetable for him to start working out. “Gordon is not there yet,” coach James Borrego said.

Here are some more injury-related notes and updates:

The Hawks are getting a second opinion on Kevin Huerter‘s sprained left shoulder, tweets Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Huerter underwent an MRI this week, but the results haven’t been announced.
Pacers forward T.J. Warren, who will miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his left foot, began jogging today on a treadmill, according to Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files (Twitter link). Coach Nate Bjorkgren called it “a big step” for the 27-year-old forward.
Dennis Smith Jr. hasn’t been able to practice lately and the Pistons don’t have a timeline for him to return from left knee soreness, tweets Rod Beard of The Detroit News. “That’s why it’s so important that Killian (Hayes) came back,” said coach Dwane Casey. “… It’s unfortunate that he’s been hurt, but injury is something you have to deal with.”
Marvin Bagley III could return soon from his hand injury, Kings coach Luke Walton tells James Ham of NBC Sports (Twitter link). Bagley has participated in some 3-on-3 games and may be ready to start playing in the next few days.

Cam Reddish Out For Rest Of Regular Season

April 27th, 2021 at 1:55pm CST by Luke Adams

Hawks forward Cam Reddish, who is dealing with right Achilles soreness, has progressed to running and dynamic foot contacts every other day, according to the team, which announced today in a press release that he’s also doing capacity-building strength work four or five days a week.

Reddish will be re-evaluated during the week of May 16 and his status will be updated as appropriate, the Hawks said in their statement. Since May 16 is the last day of the 2020/21 regular season, Reddish won’t be back until the playoffs — if he returns at all this season.

The 10th overall pick in the 2019 draft, Reddish was a key contributor for Atlanta earlier in the year, starting 21 of his 26 games and averaging 11.2 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 28.8 minutes per contest. However, he has been sidelined for over two months, having last played on February 21.

While Reddish remains an important part of the Hawks’ long-term plans, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be a part of the team’s regular postseason rotation if and when he returns, tweets Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. The 21-year-old would have plenty of rust to shake off and would likely be on a minutes restriction, Kirschner notes.

Hawks Notes: Dunn, Huerter, Goodwin, Bogdanovic

April 27th, 2021 at 1:27pm CST by Arthur Hill

After being sidelined by injuries for the past 15 months, Kris Dunn returned to the court Monday in his debut with the Hawks, writes Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. Dunn, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, sprained his MCL in January of 2020, the first of a series of injuries that have kept him out of action. An MRI in November showed cartilage disruption in his knee, and then pain in his right ankle and lower back began in December. He has spent the last four months rehabbing from arthroscopic surgery.

“I just felt like different things just kept happening,” Dunn said. “My initial injury was my knee. I felt like I was on the verge of getting better there, then the ankle situation happened. I felt like I was on the verge of getting better there (with my ankle), then the knee kept (having issues), it was just back and forth trying to get back the alignment right. It was a long process. Every emotion you can think of, I went through during that 15 months. But I have a great support system in the organization, my teammates, the coaching staff, everybody kept belief in me, and deep down inside, I’m going to just keep working. I did, and I’m happy I did it.”

Dunn played 13 minutes Monday night and will remain on a minutes restriction for a while. He signed a two-year deal with the Hawks during the offseason that includes a $5MM player option for next season.

There’s more from Atlanta:

Kevin Huerter will undergo an MRI today on his sprained left shoulder, tweets Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal Constitution. Huerter suffered the injury in the fourth quarter of Monday’s loss in Detroit.
Also injured last night was guard Brandon Goodwin, who left the game with an ankle impingement, Spencer adds (via Twitter). An X-ray taken after the game was negative, and the team said his status will be updated “as appropriate.” Goodwin offered his own update, tweeting, “Ankle good.”
The return of Bogdan Bogdanovic has helped Nate McMillan turn around the Hawks since taking over for Lloyd Price, writes Kevin Pelton of ESPN (Insider link). In McMillan’s first game as interim coach, Bogdanovic returned from an avulsion fracture in his right knee — since then, he has been on the court for most of the minutes without Trae Young.

Huerter Always "Ready And Available"

April 23rd, 2021 at 9:56pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Grade 2 ankle sprain that Trae Young is dealing with typically takes about two-to-four weeks to heal, says Sarah K. Spencer of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. The high-scoring Hawks point guard suffered the injury against the Knicks on Wednesday. Spencer consulted Dr. Kenneth Jung, an orthopedic foot and ankle surgeon, to come up with a projected recovery period for Young.
Even though the Hawks spent a lot of money to bring in sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter felt he could slide into a variety of roles. Huerter spoke to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic about how his season has gone. “I’ve been in the starting lineup. I’ve been out of the starting lineup,” he said. “My minutes have been up and down. You go into the day and treat it the same. You’re always ready and available. You have to have that approach.” Huerter is eligible for a rookie scale extension prior to the start of next season.