While the Hawks aren’t actively looking to trade John Collins, they’ve reportedly shown a willingness to listen to offers. And, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, Atlanta has sought “a high first-round, lottery-level” draft pick in any deal for Collins.
Collins, 23, has been one of the Hawks’ most impactful players this season, averaging 18.1 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .543/.391/.853 shooting in 26 games (31.8 MPG). The club has a +2.8 net rating when he’s on the court, compared to -7.9 when he sits, per NBA.com.
However, Collins’ looming restricted free agency complicates his value. Although he’s earning just $4.14MM this season, he’ll receive a huge raise – perhaps even all the way up to the maximum salary – when he signs his next contract, which will begin in 2021/22. Any team interested in acquiring Collins would have to be prepared to commit major money to him later this year.
It will also be a challenge for the Hawks to acquire an impact player in return for Collins, since most players of that caliber have cap hits far higher than his $4.14MM figure. The team could attach Collins to Tony Snell‘s $12.18MM expiring contract, but would still need to add more salary to land a player earning more than about $21MM.
If the main asset Atlanta receives for Collins is a draft pick, salary-matching would be far less of a concern, so Charania’s report makes some sense. But the Hawks badly want to make the postseason this year and will likely be reluctant to trade their second-leading scorer for a future pick unless they fall out of the playoff hunt.
It’s also tricky to identify many teams who would move a lottery-level pick for a player who could theoretically potentially be poached from Atlanta in free agency this summer with an aggressive, max-level offer sheet.
If the Hawks haven’t moved Collins by the offseason, they could face a difficult decision on whether to match an offer that exceeds what they’re comfortable paying him — while they’ll have the ability to match any offer sheet, they reportedly offered him only $90MM-ish over four years prior to the season. A four-year offer sheet this summer projects to be worth more than $120MM.
For what it’s worth, I’d be shocked if the Hawks hang onto Collins through 2020/21 and then let him walk for nothing. Even if he’s not in their long-term plans, it would make sense for the team to match an offer sheet and bet that he can be traded down the road for positive value.