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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

December 18th, 2020 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on December 22, so it’s time to get serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.

It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.

We’ll turn today to the Southeast…

Miami Heat

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Heat poll.

Atlanta Hawks

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Hawks poll.

Washington Wizards

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Wizards poll.

Orlando Magic

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Magic poll.

Charlotte Hornets

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Hornets poll.

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): Over (73.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): Over (57.9%)
  • Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Under (61.6%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): Under (68.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): Over (53.9%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Over (79.1%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (51.0%)
  • Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): Over (60.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): Under (60.7%)
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NBA GMs Vote Lakers As Offseason Winners, Title Favorites

December 18th, 2020 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s general managers liked the Lakers‘ offseason moves and are bullish on the team’s chances to repeat as champions in 2020/21, as John Schuhmann of NBA.com writes in his annual survey of the league’s GMs.

An impressive 81% of the responding general managers picked the Lakers to win the championship in 2021, which is the third-highest percentage any team has received since Schuhmann began conducting his annual GM survey 19 years ago. The Clippers ranked second at 11%, while the Nets and Heat received one vote apiece.

Meanwhile, the Lakers (37%) beat out the Suns (22%) and Thunder (15%) in the voting for best offseason roster moves. The Hawks, Bucks, and Sixers each received two votes, while the Trail Blazers got one too.

Here are a few more of the interesting responses from Schuhmann’s GM survey, which is worth checking out in full:

  • The Suns‘ acquisition of Chris Paul (44%) and the Bucks‘ trade for Jrue Holiday (33%) were voted the moves that will have the biggest impact this season. The Clippers‘ signing of Serge Ibaka (15%), the Pelicans‘ deal for Steven Adams (11%), and the Trail Blazers‘ trade for Robert Covington (11%) were the front-runners for the most underrated offseason player acquisition. Gordon Hayward‘s $120MM contract with the Hornets (54%) was voted the most surprising offseason move.
  • While NBA GMs view Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (39%) as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year over Warriors big man James Wiseman (29%), Wiseman received the most votes (36%) among this year’s rookies to be the best player in five years, followed by Ball (25%). Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton, meanwhile, was voted the biggest steal in the 2020 draft (43%).
  • Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mavericks guard Luka Doncic were the top choices as the player GMs would want to start a franchise with today. They each received 43% of the vote, with Lakers stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James and Pelicans youngster Zion Williamson also picking up votes.
  • Speaking of Williamson, he helped the Pelicans receive the nod for the team with the most promising young core (41%). The Grizzlies (22%), Hawks (11%), Celtics (11%), and Nuggets (11%) also got multiple votes.
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Hawks Owner Would “Love To See” John Collins In Atlanta Long-Term

December 16th, 2020 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Hawks big man John Collins is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is on track to become a restricted free agent in 2021 if he and the team don’t work out an extension by Monday’s deadline. While it remains to be seen whether the two sides will finalize a new deal in the coming days, team owner Tony Ressler is among those hoping that Collins remains in Atlanta for years to come, writes Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.

“I would love to see John with the Atlanta Hawks for an extended period of time,” Ressler said. “John’s a really good young player and a really good kid. I hope we can figure out a very fair and reasonable contract for him. I know (general manager) Travis (Schlenk) is very focused on keeping John Collins with the Atlanta Hawks.”

Schlenk and the Hawks are known to have talked to Collins’ camp about a potential extension, and I’d imagine those discussions will continue either until an agreement is reached or until Monday’s deadline passes. Both the Hawks and Collins have said they’d like to reach an agreement, and the club isn’t preserving cap space for 2021, so it will be interesting to see if the two sides can find common ground.

Collins stated back in the spring that he believes he’s a candidate for a maximum-salary contract, but there’s “zero indication” that the Hawks are willing to go that high at this point, as Kirschner writes. Although Collins put up big numbers (21.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in 41 games last season, he has to establish himself as a franchise cornerstone on the level of Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, or Donovan Mitchell, who each signed max rookie extensions earlier in the offseason.

[RELATED: 2020/21 NBA Contract Extension Tracker]

If Atlanta is going to lock up Collins in the coming days, it will have to be at a somewhat discounted price, according to Kirschner — Ressler’s comment about negotiating a “fair and reasonable” deal reflects that stance. If they feel as if Collins’ asking price is too high, the Hawks can simply evaluate the 23-year-old’s performance over the course of the 2020/21 season and make a decision when he reaches restricted free agency.

Collins is one of 20 players still eligible to sign a rookie scale extension by Monday. Here’s the full list.

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More On Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Extension, Bucks

December 16th, 2020 at 8:22am CST by Luke Adams

Following the Bucks‘ second-round postseason loss to Miami, reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo made a conscious decision to play a more vocal role in upgrading the team’s roster, according to a report from ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Kevin Arnovitz.

During a fall lunch with Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry, GM Jon Horst, and Giannis’ agent Alex Saratsis, Antetokounmpo named a number of players whom he thought would be good offseason targets for Milwaukee, including Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, per Windhorst and Arnovitz.

Beal wasn’t available, the Bucks never got close to a deal for Oladipo, and their efforts to sign-and-trade for Bogdanovic fell through. However, Milwaukee zeroed in on another player on Giannis’ list, Jrue Holiday, believing he’d be a natural fit in the team’s lineup.

According to ESPN’s duo, the Nuggets and Celtics were aggressive in attempting to acquire a top-10 pick in last month’s draft to flip for Holiday. The Hawks were also interested in moving the No. 6 pick in a deal for the Pelicans guard, but ultimately abandoned that plan due to uncertainty over whether he’d want to remain in Atlanta beyond 2021.

The Bucks didn’t have a top-10 pick in 2020 to offer for Holiday, but were willing to put plenty of future first-rounders on the table. According to Windhorst and Arnovitz, Milwaukee initially offered Eric Bledsoe, two first-round picks, and a pick swap (plus salary filler), then “reluctantly” added George Hill to the offer. The Pelicans countered by asking for one more first-rounder and one more pick swap.

Sources tell ESPN that the Bucks’ decision-makers knew that giving up two rotation players, three first-round picks, and two pick swaps was an overpay, especially since an extension for Holiday may cost in the neighborhood of $30MM per year.

However, the club badly wanted to upgrade its roster and to send a message to Antetokounmpo and decided to pull the trigger. If that deal ultimately helped convince Giannis to sign his super-max extension, the front office presumably feels the cost was worth it.

Here’s more on the Bucks and the Antetokounmpo extension:

  • The report from ESPN’s Windhorst and Arnovitz is worth checking out in full, as it’s packed with interesting nuggets about the process of extending Antetokounmpo. According to the ESPN duo, when the Lakers acquired Dennis Schroder from Oklahoma City, Giannis wanted reassurance that Milwaukee had made a “valiant effort” to land Schroder.
  • As a trio of writers from The Athletic reported on Tuesday, Windhorst and Arnovitz confirm that the Bucks first formally made their extension pitch to Antetokounmpo on December 5. During that meeting, team ownership and management focused on the team’s commitment to building a champion, pointing to its aggressive pursuit of Holiday and its willingness to pay future luxury tax bills, per ESPN.
  • David Aldridge of The Athletic argues that the Antetokounmpo extension is good for the NBA, since it’s hard for fans in non-glamor markets to fully invest in their teams if they believe star players always have one foot out the door.
  • Joe Vardon of The Athletic throws some cold water on the news of Antetokounmpo’s extension, writing that the new deal offers the Bucks a temporary reprieve, but doesn’t guarantee the superstar forward will be with the franchise for the next five years. Jobs will be “on the line” in Milwaukee if the team doesn’t make the NBA Finals and win a title within the next couple years, says Vardon.
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And-Ones: Doncic, Lin, G League, Duffy

December 14th, 2020 at 12:42pm CST by Luke Adams

A panel of eight NBA scouts and executives polled by Tim Bontemps of ESPN nearly unanimously view LeBron James as the league’s best player, but voted Luka Doncic as the frontrunner for the MVP award in 2021.

“It’s hard to see Giannis winning three in a row,” a Western Conference scout told ESPN. “And I think there’s more of an opportunity for Luka to kind of put on an MVP show and do more on an individual basis.”

Bontemps also had those scouts and execs weigh in with their thoughts on the 2020 offseason, polling them on which teams had the most success upgrading their roster in either the short or long term — or both. Half the panelists picked the Lakers as the team that had the best offseason, with the Hawks, Thunder, and Sixers also receiving votes. Meanwhile, the Pistons, Rockets, and Bucks got votes for the worst offseason.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Free agent guard Jeremy Lin practiced this weekend with the G League Ignite ahead of their scrimmages on Tuesday and Thursday, league sources tell Adam Zagoria of Forbes (Twitter link). Lin wasn’t among the veteran players previously announced as part of the Ignite, but Zagoria suggests in his full story that the veteran is expected to suit up with the squad on Tuesday.
  • Dakota Schmidt of Ridiculous Upside is keeping tabs on which teams are expected to opt in and out of the G League’s proposed Atlanta-area bubble. With the NBA’s opening night just over a week away, it seems like a formal update on the plans for the NBAGL should be right around the corner.
  • After making a clerical error that cost client Anthony Carter approximately $3MM in 2003, agent Bill Duffy vowed to repay Carter in full and has made good on that promise, making the last of his payments to Carter this year, as Sopan Deb writes in an interesting story for The New York Times.
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Southeast Notes: Capela, Rondo, Beal, Gordon

December 12th, 2020 at 8:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Hawks had to wait a long time for their first glimpse of new center Clint Capela, but he seems ready to provide what they’re expecting, writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Capela was acquired all the way back at the trade deadline in February, but he wasn’t able to play because of a heel injury that lingered into the summer. In Friday’s preseason opener, he showed he can still be a force on the boards, grabbing 14 rebounds in 20 minutes.

“That’s one of those things that you know is an area of concern. … And that’s going to be big for us,” said coach Lloyd Pierce, whose team ranked near the bottom of the league in rebounding last season. “That’s going to be really big for us because we can teach him some of our thoughts on what we like to do when we get offensive rebounds, to create extra possessions and extra opportunities, it’s going to be huge.”

Capela is a welcome sight for teammate John Collins, who can spend more time at his natural position of power forward after being used in the middle frequently last year. Collins likes playing beside a shot blocker who can anchor the defense.

“As soon as he steps on the court, he adds a defensive presence,” Collins said. “His rebounding, his experience. Clint’s not a quiet guy on the court, he’s trying to direct traffic and lead and let guys know where they are, so I feel like that’s very valuable in the long term.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

  • Rajon Rondo‘s decision to join the rebuilding Hawks makes him the oldest player on his team for the first time in his career, notes Kevin L. Chouinard of NBA.com. Two months removed from helping the Lakers win an NBA title, Rondo steps into a new role of being a veteran leader on a young squad. “Trae Young, John (Collins), Kevin Huerter, the young guys have an extreme amount of upside,” he said. “To me, honestly, I didn’t think the East was very tough this year as far as the talent. I think it was kind of up for grabs as far as which team would prevail to the top. As you’ve seen, anything can happen in the playoffs.”
  • Bradley Beal isn’t concerned about how new backcourt partner Russell Westbrook meshed with his previous star teammates, according to Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN. He said their relationship has been “smooth sailing” since the trade that brought Westbrook to the Wizards last week. “I’m easy to adapt to,” Beal said. “I’m not going to come in and say I need this shot, I need the ball here or there. Doesn’t matter. As long as we are all incorporated within offense and everybody’s eating, we’re good.”
  • Magic forward Aaron Gordon is starting the preseason on a minutes limit as he recovers from a hamstring injury he suffered during the restart, writes Roy Parry of The Orlando Sentinel. Gordon played 16 minutes in Friday’s opener, all in the first half.
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Kris Dunn To Miss At Least Three Games

December 12th, 2020 at 3:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hawks guard Kris Dunn will miss at least the first three games of the regular season with what the team describes in a press release as a right knee cartilage disruption.

Dunn will be “reviewed” on December 28 and a status update will be provided at that time. The Hawks open the season on December 23 against Dunn’s former team, the Bulls. They’ll also play the Grizzlies (Dec. 26), Pistons (Dec.28) and Nets (Dec. 3o) this month.

Dunn has begun participating in individual workouts with contact and is progressing toward live team practice. One of several free agent signings the Hawks made in recent weeks, Dunn inked a two-year, $10MM contract with a second-year player option.

In the short run, Atlanta has enough guard depth to make up for his absence. Noted for his defensive prowess, Dunn is expected to play a key reserve role as a combo guard.

A former fifth overall pick, Dunn averaged 7.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 3.4 APG on .444/.259/.741 shooting in 51 games (24.9 MPG) last season for Chicago. The Bulls decided not to make him a restricted free agent, passing on their qualifying offer.

The press release also provided an update on lottery pick Onyeka Okongwu, who is dealing with inflammation of the sesamoid bone in his left foot. The former USC big man has begun participating in modified team practice with contact and is progressing towards unlimited team practice. He will be reviewed on December 18.

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Snell Has Gone Into Self-Isolation

December 11th, 2020 at 9:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • Tony Snell is currently not with the Hawks, since he’s self-isolating, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic tweets. He hasn’t tested positive for COVID-19 but was deemed a close contact to someone who did. Snell was acquired from the Pistons this offseason.
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Hawks' G League Affiliate Will Opt Out Of G League Bubble

December 9th, 2020 at 10:00pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum
  • The College Park Skyhawks, G League affiliate of the Hawks, are among the several clubs anticipated to opt out of the proposed G League bubble season, per Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News (Twitter link). The season is expected to transpire in the Atlanta area.
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Rondo, Hill, Dunn Bringing Vocal Leadership To Atlanta

December 9th, 2020 at 12:28pm CST by Luke Adams
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