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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

August 7th, 2020 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Atlanta Hawks.

Salary Cap Outlook

With so much uncertainty surrounding the 2020/21 salary cap, it’s impossible to say exactly how much space the Hawks will have. But they currently project to have more flexibility than virtually any other team in the NBA.

Even if the cap remains the same as it was in ’19/20, Atlanta could comfortably get to $43MM+ in room, depending on where the team’s lottery pick lands. Once they use up all that space, the Hawks will have the room exception available — it’d be worth $4.77MM if the cap doesn’t increase.

Our full salary cap preview for the Hawks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 4 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Hawks have the fourth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 6 (25.7%). They have a 12.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 48.1% chance at a top-four selection, with No. 5 (7.2%), No. 7 (16.8%), and No. 8 (2.2%) also in play.

Second Round:

  • No. 50 overall pick

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of the Heat’s and Rockets’ second-round picks. That’ll be Miami’s second-rounder, which falls at No. 50 — Houston’s will land in the No. 51-53 range.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How will the Hawks use their cap room?

Under general manager Travis Schlenk, the Hawks haven’t been major players in free agency, preferring to hang back and wait for the potential bargains that are available a few days after the league year opens. Atlanta has generally had no shortage of cap space in those years, but has preferred to use it to absorb unwanted contracts to gain extra draft picks.

With the Hawks looking to soon make the transition from rebuilding team to perennial playoff threat, it would seem to be a prime time to adjust their free agency philosophy. With so much space available this fall, Atlanta could theoretically make a major splash, adding a veteran or two who could help push the team’s young core over the top.

While that plan may sound good to team ownership, a couple of practical factors could complicate matters. For one, this year’s free agent class isn’t exactly loaded with stars for the Hawks to target. None of the players at the top of our free agent power rankings are really logical options for Atlanta.

Anthony Davis isn’t leaving L.A.; the Pelicans almost certainly aren’t letting Brandon Ingram get away; Montrezl Harrell doesn’t make sense for a team that just acquired Clint Capela; and Fred VanVleet probably isn’t an ideal partner for Trae Young in what would be a very undersized backcourt. There are players further down that list that could appeal to the Hawks, but investing big long-term money in any of them would be risky.

On top of that, this offseason sets up perfectly for Atlanta to stick with its formula of using cap room to accommodate salary dumps and collect assets. After all, with team owners across the league expected to feel the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, there may be several teams who are looking to cut costs and are willing to part with draft picks to do so.

The Hawks won’t be in asset-gathering mode forever, and they can afford to be a little more aggressive on the free agent market in 2020. But being one of the only teams with maximum-salary cap room doesn’t mean they’ll come out of the offseason with a max-caliber player.

2. Is it time to consolidate assets in a trade?

If the Hawks can’t land a star on the free agent market, could they do so in a trade? They have no shortage of trade chips available if they want to try to make a move, including an extra 2022 first-round pick and a handful of future second-rounders.

Young looks like an obvious keeper, but there’s no one else on the Hawks’ roster that is 100% assured of a long-term stay in Atlanta — the team would surely consider moving the likes of De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and/or Kevin Huerter if the price is right, and even John Collins was mentioned in trade rumors earlier this year.

Given Young’s ability on offense and lack thereof on defense, the most logical fit for the Hawks would be a two-way wing who can lock down opposing scorers and doesn’t necessarily need to dominate the ball.

Those players aren’t easy to find though, and the most frequent subjects of trade speculation these days don’t quite fit the bill — Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine, for instance, aren’t strong enough defenders to pair with Young. Stars who might’ve made sense for the Hawks in past years when they were unhappy with their situations – such as Jimmy Butler or Paul George – are now in their preferred destinations and likely won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

The Hawks have done business with the Nets in recent years, and if Brooklyn makes Caris LeVert available this offseason in its search for a third star, that’d be an opportunity worth exploring. Otherwise, it’s hard to find many ideal fits on the trade market if the Hawks want to cash in some chips for an impact wing.

3. Will the Hawks extend John Collins this fall?

Currently, Capela is the only player on the Hawks’ roster who is owed more than $15MM in any future season. He’s also the one who has a fully guaranteed salary beyond 2021, with the exception of the players on their rookie contracts.

However, Atlanta will have to start making major financial decisions on its young talent as early as this offseason, when Collins becomes eligible for his rookie scale extension. There are compelling reasons for the Hawks to wait on a new deal for Collins and equally compelling reasons for the team to get something done this fall.

Waiting until 2021 to make a decision on Collins would give the Hawks a chance to evaluate how their Collins/Capela frontcourt actually looks on the court, since the two big men have yet to play a game together.

Additionally, since Collins has said multiple times in recent months that he feels as if he’s worthy of a maximum-salary contract, it might make more sense to have him fully earn that max deal with a strong contract year rather than handing it to him after a season that started with a 25-game suspension for a drug violation.

Waiting for Collins to reach restricted free agency would also significantly increase the Hawks’ flexibility in 2021. Rather than entering that offseason with a max salary for Collins (likely in the $28-30MM range) already on the books, the team would just have to carry his $12.4MM cap hold — that would create a ton of extra cap flexibility for the Hawks before they go over the cap to re-sign him.

On the other hand, the fact that Collins has so frequently talked about the possibility of an extension suggests it’s important to him to get something finalized sooner rather than later for the sake of security, and Atlanta may not want to risk alienating one of its potential cornerstones.

A handful of factors – that 25-game suspension, a disappointing season for the Hawks, and the NBA’s current financial outlook – may also give the club some leverage to negotiate something below the max for Collins. If he’s open to that possibility, it could save the team some money in the long run. The Celtics and Pacers, for instance, were wise to complete extensions with Jaylen Brown and Domantas Sabonis last fall, since they would’ve been candidates for more lucrative offer sheets this offseason.

Whichever path the Hawks take, it won’t necessarily represent their final decision on whether Collins is a long-term building block for the franchise. Trading him in a year or two will still be possible if he signs an extension, and locking him up in 2021 shouldn’t be a problem even if the two sides don’t agree to an extension this year.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Kirschner Examines Hawks' Draft Board

August 7th, 2020 at 1:55pm CST by Luke Adams
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NBA Explores Idea Of Bottom Eight Teams Conducting OTAs At Disney Campus

August 7th, 2020 at 10:20am CST by Luke Adams

A report earlier this week suggested that the idea of creating a second “bubble” this summer for the NBA’s bottom eight clubs to conduct organized team activities appeared to be losing steam.

However, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic, league officials made it clear in a Wednesday conference call that they’re still trying to figure out as solution that will allow those teams to stay active. One idea that has been discussed, sources tell Amick, is bringing those bottom eight teams to the NBA’s first bubble at Walt Disney World.

As Amick explains, we’re just over a week away from six of the 22 teams participating in the Orlando restart being eliminated, which would open up more space at the Disney hotels and basketball courts. Two weeks later, after the first round of the playoffs ends, eight more clubs will be eliminated, leaving just eight of the original 22 on campus.

That could create an opportunity for the NBA to invite the bottom eight teams – the Warriors, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Hawks, Knicks, Pistons, Bulls, and Hornets – into its “bubble.” Presumably, players, coaches, and staffers would quarantine in Disney hotels for several days before being cleared to participate in group workouts, practices, and perhaps even inter-squad scrimmages.

Amick cautions that this idea is just being considered for now, with nothing decided as of yet. A number of the hotel rooms being vacated by teams by the end of the first round of the postseason are expected to be filled by family members of players on the remaining clubs, who will be permitted to bring guests onto the campus around the end of August. So the NBA would have logistical challenges to overcome to bring such a plan together.

It also seems unlikely that all of those bottom eight teams would be enthusiastic about traveling to Orlando, quarantining, and spending a period of time at the Disney campus. The Warriors are known to prefer the idea of group workouts in their own market, and the Knicks have been averse to the idea of a second bubble because they have a number of free agents on their roster who likely wouldn’t participate (any organized team activities the NBA approves are expected to be voluntary, not mandatory).

Still, it’s worth noting that one of the NBPA’s primary concerns about OTAs for the non-Orlando teams is a belief that it’d be difficult to replicate the Disney safety protocols at another location. Bringing those teams onto the Disney campus would be the simplest way to ensure that those players are subject to the same safety protocols, so the union would have to consider such a plan. We’ll see if anything comes of it.

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Second Bubble For NBA’s Bottom Eight Teams Now Appears Unlikely

August 4th, 2020 at 2:49pm CST by Luke Adams

A report one month ago suggested that the NBA appeared likely to create a second campus/bubble environment in Chicago for the league’s bottom eight teams. The idea was for those teams left out of the Orlando restart to spend some time with their players during the offseason, conducting mini-training camps and inter-squad games in a single location.

However, according to Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic, there’s a growing belief that a second bubble site won’t happen. The Athletic’s duo reports that there’s also pessimism about those bottom eight teams getting to hold in-market minicamps for group workouts.

“There’s nothing happening,” said one general manager following a Tuesday call with the eight GMs and various league officials. “It’s a shame. It’s a huge detriment to these eight franchises that were left behind.”

With the NBA focusing on the success of the Orlando restart, discussions about plans for the bottom eight teams – the Warriors, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Knicks, and Hornets – have been inconsistent. As recently as last week, there seemed to be momentum building toward a plan to allow those clubs to hold practices and workouts, but that momentum has apparently stalled.

According to Charania and Amick, the National Basketball Players Association has safety concerns related to the idea of a second bubble amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. There are also financial and logistical complications associated with creating a smaller-scale version of the NBA’s Walt Disney World campus.

Charania and Amick suggest that the NBPA is more open to the idea of creating smaller, in-market bubbles for teams to host individual mini-camps in their respective cities. But it sounds as if that won’t happen by mid-August as initially hoped, if it happens at all.

The eight teams left out of the Orlando restart believe they’re at a potential competitive disadvantage by missing out on the player and culture development that other teams are getting this summer, sources tell The Athletic. Those clubs are expected to continue pushing for some form of offseason team activities to re-engage players and coaches. For now, they’re only permitted to hold 1-on-0 workouts at their practice facilities, with limited coach involvement.

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NBA Nears Agreement On Workouts For Teams Not In Orlando

July 25th, 2020 at 9:50am CST by Dana Gauruder

The NBA is close to finalizing plans for the eight teams not in Orlando to hold practices and group workouts, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer reports.

Under the proposal, those teams would be allowed a week of practice at their home facilities, beginning the second week of August. They might also conduct two weeks of group workouts and scrimmages at two of those sites.

The plan would have to be approved by the National Basketball Players Association but talks have progressed to point where an announcement could be made next week, according to Bonnell. If those teams do agree to the two-week workout and scrimmage sessions, they would be subject to the same safety protocols as the players at the Orlando campus.

The teams not currently in Orlando are the Hornets, Pistons, Knicks, Bulls, Timberwolves, Hawks, Cavaliers and Warriors.

Many of those teams have been pushing for some sort of organized activities, feeling they’re at a competitive disadvantage compared to the teams on the Orlando campus. However, the Knicks were reportedly reluctant to hold scrimmages against other clubs since they have numerous free agents on their roster.

Currently, players on those teams are only allowed to work on individual skills development, Bonnell notes.

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Hawks Might Make Run At Giannis

July 24th, 2020 at 8:38pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • There are quite a few free agent point guard options for the Hawks to consider as a backup but the Bulls’ Kris Dunn should be at or near the top of the list, The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner opines. Dunn is an elite level defender, though he’d have to paired up with quality shooters due to his offensive limitations. The Grizzlies’ De’Anthony Melton would also be an interesting option who could be paired with Young at times because of his defensive prowess.
  • It isn’t out of the question the Hawks would make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo if the reigning Most Valuable Player becomes a free agent next summer, Kirschner adds in the same piece. If the Hawks’ young core shows major progress next season, they may be able to entice the superstar in a similar manner to what the Clippers did to lure Kawhi Leonard and trade for Paul George.
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Draft Notes: Tilmon, M. Smith, Early Entrants

July 24th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After Missouri guard Xavier Pinson announced earlier this week that he was pulling out of the 2020 NBA draft to return to school for another year, a pair of his teammates who had been testing the waters have followed suit.

According to Mizzou Hoops (Twitter link), forwards Jeremiah Tilmon and Mitchell Smith are also returning to the Tigers for their senior seasons in 2020/21.

Neither Tilmon nor Smith was a full-time starter at Missouri this past season. Tilmon averaged 8.2 PPG and 4.4 RPG in 17 games (19.9 MPG), while Smith recorded 5.1 PPG and 4.9 RPG in 30 games (21.9 MPG). They’ll each play one more season in college before becoming automatically draft-eligible in 2021.

Here’s more on the draft:

  • NCAA prospects who are testing the draft waters have until August 3 to decide whether or not to withdraw. As Jeff Goodman of Stadium writes, many players still weighing their decisions would like more time, given the uncertainty surrounding the 2020/21 NCAA season and the lack of an NBA combine so far. “It would definitely help (to extend the withdrawal deadline),” Iowa’s Luka Garza said. “The last week has been very stressful mentally thinking about it all. I don’t know what to do.”
  • Bryan Kalbrosky of HoopsHype takes a closer look at Garza and several other prospects who are still testing the waters, examining whether or not it makes sense for them to stay in the draft.
  • The Athletic’s beat writers for the Knicks, Hawks, Warriors, Pistons, and Cavaliers conducted a mini-mock draft for the first five picks, based on a Tankathon simulation. The results were interesting, with Mike Vorkunov taking Anthony Edwards for New York at No. 1, Chris Kirschner selecting Deni Avdija for Atlanta at No. 2, and LaMelo Ball slipping to Detroit at No. 4.
  • Bryant guard Benson Lin has decided to forgo his remaining NCAA eligibility and play professionally in China next season, a source tells Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports (Twitter link). Lin could technically still enter this year’s draft, since the entry deadline has been pushed back. However, he can go pro without doing so, and Rothstein’s report doesn’t mention the draft.
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Drummond Wanted To Be Traded To Hawks

July 22nd, 2020 at 10:16pm CST by Jovan Alford

In his latest mailbag for The Athletic on Tuesday, Chris Kirschner answered questions relating to the Hawks‘ future, Kevin Huerter, Clint Capela, and a handful of other topics.

Within the mailbag, Kirschner noted that veteran center Andre Drummond wanted to be traded to Atlanta before the Hawks acquired Capela from the Rockets. According to the Hawks beat writer, Drummond – who is friends with Trae Young – was telling people he wanted to be in Atlanta. However, the 26-year-old center was ultimately traded to the Cavaliers for John Henson, Brandon Knight, and a 2023 second-round pick in February.

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NBA Moves 2020 Draft Lottery To August 20

July 21st, 2020 at 1:47pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA has moved up its 2020 draft lottery by five days, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, who reports (via Twitter) that the event, previously tentatively scheduled for August 25, will now take place on Thursday, August 20.

The eight teams with the best odds in this year’s lottery are the same eight teams that weren’t invited to participate in the resumption of the 2019/20 season in Orlando. The Warriors, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves each have a 14.0% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, followed by the Hawks (12.5%), Pistons (10.5%), Knicks (9.0%), Bulls (7.5%), and Hornets (6.0%).

The other six teams that will be part of the 2020 lottery will be determined once this season’s 16 playoff teams have been set, which will happen a few days before August 20. The six clubs in Orlando that don’t make the postseason will occupy the bottom six spots in the lottery standings — their order will be determined by their records as of March 11.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]

The tentative 2020 NBA draft lottery odds, assuming the Grizzlies, Magic, and Nets all hang onto their playoff spots, can be found right here. This year’s draft will take place on October 16.

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