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Where Traded Draft Picks Would Land If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 9:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.

Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.

With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.

First round:

Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
New York Knicks (from Clippers)
Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)

Notes:

The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.

Second round:

Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
New York Knicks (from Hornets)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
Boston Celtics (from Nets)
Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)

Notes:

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.

What 2020 Lottery Odds Would Look Like If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.

It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.

Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.

With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.

For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC*	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NOP*	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
POR	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.

Multiple NBA Teams Commit To Paying Arena Workers During Hiatus

March 13th, 2020 at 11:36am CST by Luke Adams

Some of the first comments Mavericks owner Mark Cuban made on Wednesday night after the NBA announced that it had suspended the 2019/20 season were focused on the team’s part-time, seasonal, and hourly employees, such as security guards and concession workers at the American Airlines Center. Cuban made it clear that the Mavs plan to take care of those employees.

“I reached out to the folks at the arena and our folks at the Mavs to find out what it would cost to support, financially support, people who aren’t going to be able to come to work,” Cuban told reporters, per Mark Medina of USA Today. “They get paid by the hour, and this was their source of income. So, we’ll do some things there. We may ask them to go do some volunteer work in exchange, but we’ve already started the process of having a program in place. I don’t have any details to give, but it’s certainly something that’s important to me.”

Since then, a handful of other teams have followed Cuban’s lead. Hawks owner Tony Ressler had been preparing for this possibility and had planned all along to compensate the team’s full-time and part-time employees who will have their jobs disrupted by the NBA’s hiatus, writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

“We have a pretty clear set of priorities in this kind of remarkable time that we’re living through,” Ressler said. “Protecting our fans, protecting our employees, and protecting the reputation of our league, all of which is important, but let there be no confusion, that means taking care of all of our employees, our full-time, our part-time.”

After Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie tweeted about taking care of non-salaried arena staff, team owner Joe Tsai responded that the Nets are working on a plan for those workers.

Cavaliers forward Kevin Love pledged $100K of his own money to aid arena employees displaced by the NBA’s stoppage, telling ESPN’s Dave McMenamin that he hopes “others will step up” as well. The Cavs announced (via Twitter) shortly thereafter that they’d be compensating all of their arena and event staff members as if every game and event at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse is still taking place.

While only a handful of teams have addressed the issue so far, I’d be surprised if that list doesn’t continue to grow in the coming days. Team owners and players will be affected financially by the suspension, but their losses likely won’t be as damaging in the short term as they would be for the lower-level employees who had been relying on the hourly wages earned at NBA events.

Vince Carter Discusses Upcoming Retirement

March 12th, 2020 at 7:22pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

43-year-old Hawks wing Vince Carter chatted about his upcoming retirement after a record-setting 22 NBA seasons, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. Kirschner detailed the scene following Carter’s game on Wednesday night, in which Atlanta fell 136-131 to the Knicks in overtime.

The Hawks discovered that the season was going to be at least postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic during the fourth quarter, as big man John Collins attempted free throws. Carter checked in with just 20 seconds left in overtime and knocked down a three-pointer.

“This was fun. If it ended today, this day and the end of the season with these last 16 games will be talked about for a very long time,” Carter said. “That’s something I’ll always remember. At least I scored my last basket. It’s a weird but cool memory.”

While Carter figures to play down the stretch for the Hawks if and when the season resumes, there’s a chance that Wednesday’s game will be the last time he plays in front of fans. If the coronavirus situation worsens and the NBA is forced to cancel its season, it will be the last time Carter plays at all, which prompted his postgame comments.

“I work so hard to be in shape and play this game to compete against young guys half my age, so I wanted to go out and play the game,” Carter said. “When you say, ‘How old is he again? Oh, he looks like he can still play.’ That’s the feeling — that’s like a championship because each and every night you play against another young guy and they say, ‘Man, I don’t see how you’re doing it. You look like you could play a couple of years.’ That’s like winning a championship in my mind.

“Some people probably don’t see it that way. I think sitting on the end of the bench and not being able to be a part of it — that would get me more than anything. It’s been a great ride.”

For the season, the eight-time All-Star is averaging 5.0 PPG and 2.1 RPG. Carter’s career slash line is a more impressive 16.7 PPG/4.3 RPG/3.1 APG. The 6’6″ University of North Carolina alum has scored 25,728 career points, the 22nd-most in league history.

Last night, in light of the league’s indefinite suspension of game play for the 2019/20 season, Carter posted a tweet expressing gratitude to fans for his final season. “If this is really it, I thank everyone for your love and support for all these years,” Carter said in part.

John Collins Believes He’s In “Max Contract Contention”

March 10th, 2020 at 1:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Hawks are facing an important decision this summer on whether to give a rookie-scale extension to John Collins. In a lengthy interview with Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the third-year power forward says he believes he’s worth the investment.

“I mean, I feel like I am a priority to the Hawks in terms of my value in the young core,” Collins said. “I feel like that’s no question. Priority in terms of — I don’t know. I definitely feel like I am a priority to them. For a lot of money? I just don’t know personally. I feel like it’s been a unique situation, but I feel like my play has garnered a bigger contract. This is when you want to start comparing, but it’s just a matter of if they’re going to reciprocate the respect back.

“I definitely feel like I am in max contract contention. If I finish this season averaging 20 and 10, the other guys who are averaging 20 and 10 are max-caliber guys. I’m in that conversation and feel like I am worthy of being extended as such. That’s for the Hawks to decide and figure it out. If you want to look at numbers and flat-out play, I definitely feel like I’ve earned it. But the team situation, future cap and all that, now you have a contract negotiation.”

Kirschner estimates Collins’ value somewhere between the $77MM extension that the Pacers gave Domantas Sabonis and the maximum-salary extension Pascal Siakam received from the Raptors. Sources tell Kirschner there’s a belief around the league that the Hawks are hesitant to make that kind of commitment to Collins, which is why they received inquiries about him prior to the trade deadline.

There’s not much question about Collins’ on-court value, as he’s putting together his best season, averaging 21.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per night. He has also improved as a 3-point shooter, connecting on 41.1% from long distance. However, he was suspended for 25 games early in the season for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program, sinking any playoff hopes Atlanta might have entertained.

Collins said he won’t be insulted if the Hawks decide against making a full max offer, but his “antennas would be up, for sure.” The team has the option of holding off on an extension and trying to re-sign him as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2021. The Hawks also could decide to avoid the decision by trading him, just as they did with Taurean Prince last year.

“I hope they slide me that sheet of paper,” Collins said. “That’s what I’ve been working towards. I’ve been trying to be a face of the franchise. To be that person and to be that face is what I’ve been working towards. That’s what I want. That’s what I’ve been trying to earn and trying to show them that I am worthy of it. I hope my work and what I’m going to try to continue to do is going to be reciprocated, and they can show that they’ve bought into me. And then I’m going to try to go to a whole other level and live up to that contract.”

Vince Carter Reflects On His Time In Memphis

March 8th, 2020 at 12:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

Vince Carter is receiving farewells around the league during his final NBA season, but the Hawks‘ veteran said last night’s tribute in Memphis was special, relays Evan Barnes of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. Carter spent three seasons with the Grizzlies and reached the playoffs each year. “It was a great time in my career. This city is different than a lot of places that I’ve been” he said. “They really embrace the players and what they tried to do with the Grit and Grind mentality is a staple not just on the floor but in the city.”

R.J. Hunter Playing For Hawks' NBAGL Team As He Seeks NBA Comeback

March 6th, 2020 at 9:55pm CST by Luke Adams

After playing in Turkey earlier this season, former first-round pick R.J. Hunter has returned stateside and is a member of the Hawks‘ G League team in College Park as he seeks an NBA comeback. Zach Koons of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the story and the quotes from Hunter.

Capela's Foot Issue Still Lingers

March 6th, 2020 at 7:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Clint Capela still hasn’t made his Hawks debut due to plantar fasciitis and a bone bruise in his heel. Capela. who is expected to be re-evaluated on March 18, says he’s still dealing with pain but the center is seeing improvement, as Chris Kirschner of The Athletic relays. The Rockets traded him in a four-team deal. “It’s way better now,” Capela said. “Before (with Houston), it was an 8, 9 or 10. Now, it’s coming back down slowly. It’s like a 7 to 5 somedays. There are still a lot of ups and downs, but it’s really progressing.”

Mavs’ Protest Denied, Cuban Fined $500K By NBA

March 6th, 2020 at 12:44pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA has rejected the Mavericks‘ petition to replay the final seconds of their February 22 loss to the Hawks, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter).

According to Wojnarowski, the league has also fined Mavs owner Mark Cuban $500K for his comments criticizing officiating and for coming onto the court twice in the final seconds of that game vs. Atlanta to confront the referees.

The NBA issued a press release confirming both the protest ruling and the fine. The league explained in its statement that the substantial fine being levied against Cuban is for “his public criticism and detrimental conduct regarding NBA officiating.”

The release described Cuban’s comments as “personal and demeaning to the league and its officiating staff,” adding that demeaning NBA employees creates “an intimidating workplace environment.” The league suggested that his comments represented an effort to “influence refereeing decisions,” which created “the perception of an unfair competitive advantage and thereby undermines the integrity of the game.” The full announcement can be found right here.

As we detailed last month, the Mavs filed their protest because they believed officials misapplied rules on a play in the final minute of the game vs. the Hawks. The play in question saw Mavs forward Dorian Finney-Smith block a Trae Young layup attempt, with Atlanta big man John Collins scoring on a putback. Initially, goaltending was called on Young’s shot, but when a replay showed the block was clean, referees allowed the follow-up basket, citing an inadvertent whistle and saying Collins was in a shooting motion before the whistle blew.

In his post-game comments, Cuban blasted not only that end-of-game call, but the NBA’s entire referee development program. However, the NBA stated today that the rules were not misapplied on Collins’ basket.

“The league’s investigation included an analysis of the game footage showing that the whistle began to sound one-fifteenth of a second before Collins gained possession of the ball,” the league acknowledged in its statement. “However, it is well-established by prior NBA protest decisions that a factual determination by game officials – including replay officials – that is shown in a post-game review to be incorrect is not a misapplication of the playing rules.

“While officials strive to get every call right, games cannot be replayed when, after the fact and free from the need to make rulings in real time, a different judgment about events on the playing floor can be made. For these reasons, Commissioner Silver found that the extraordinary remedy of granting a game protest and replaying the last portion of a completed game was not warranted.”

Even before today, Cuban had reportedly been fined more than $2MM by the NBA over the years, a history that likely played a part in the size of his latest penalty. It’s actually not the most substantial single fine Cuban has faced — the league hit him with a $600K fine in 2018 for publicly admitting to tanking, as Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News tweets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hawks Notes: Capela, Labissiere, Bembry

March 4th, 2020 at 2:09pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hawks announced today in a press release that big men Clint Capela (foot) and Skal Labissiere (knee) continue to rehab their respective injuries and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Both players were acquired at the trade deadline, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll see much -if any – action for Atlanta this season.
In other Hawks-related injury news, swingman DeAndre’ Bembry, who is dealing with abdominal pain, has been cleared for non-contact work, head coach Lloyd Pierce said today (Twitter link via Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Bembry, a potential restricted free agent this offseason, hasn’t played since January 20.