- The Heat’s biggest challenge in the first round will be finding a way to control Hawks star Trae Young, Chiang adds. Miami typically uses a variety of defenders against Young and mixes up its coverages to make him less comfortable. “He’s one of the most dynamic point guards we have in our league now,” Lowry said. “You just have to know that he’s going to do some spectacular things. But we do have to wear on him, make things a little bit tougher, however that is.”
Hawks forward John Collins will play in today’s Game 1 against the Heat as long as he doesn’t have any issues during warmups, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. Collins has been out of action since March 11 with injuries to his right foot and right ring finger.
Collins is still bothered by the pain in his finger, according to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. It’s difficult for him to grip the ball, sources tell Kirschner, and the injury is affecting his shot.
Collins, who also has been dealing with a sprained right foot and a plantar fascia tear, was upgraded to questionable on Saturday. Atlanta was able to win two play-in games without Collins, but will likely need him on the court to be competitive with top-seeded Miami.
Clint Capela‘s injury in Friday’s game makes Collins’ return even more important. Capela had to be helped to the locker room in the second quarter with a hyperextended right knee and will be sidelined for at least a week. Onyeka Okongwu is among the league’s best backup centers, Kirschner notes, but he’s not in Capela’s class as a rebounder and doesn’t have the same chemistry with Trae Young on the pick-and-roll.
Hawks forward John Collins will attempt to play in the series opener against the Heat, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. Collins, who has been sidelined since March 11 with foot and finger injuries, has been upgraded to questionable for Sunday’s game.
Collins is still dealing with a sprained right foot and plantar fascia tear, along with a sprain to his right ring finger. He was able to participate in some 4-on-4 drills at Thursday’s practice, coach Nate McMillan told Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Injuries have limited Collins to 54 games this season. He is Atlanta’s second-leading scorer at 16.2 PPG and second-leading rebounder at 7.8 RPG.
If Collins can’t return for Game 1, the teams will have just one night off before Tuesday’s Game 2. The series will shift to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday.
Hawks center Clint Capela underwent an MRI on his knee that revealed no structural damage, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link). Capela is expected to be re-evaluated in a week.
The 27-year-old injured his knee against the Cavaliers on Friday and has avoided a significant injury. He exited the contest with seven points and eight rebounds, logging just over 13 minutes to that point.
Capela will miss at least the first three games of the team’s first-round series against Miami. Game 4 will be held on Sunday, April 24, though it’s still unclear whether he’ll be able to return by that point. He averaged 11.1 points and 11.9 rebounds per contest as a starter this season.
Former No. 6 pick Onyeka Okongwu will likely receive more playing time in his absence, especially with John Collins‘ availability still up in the air. Okongwu grabbed nine rebounds and finished with a +21 net rating against Cleveland.
Heat center Bam Adebayo has officially exited the league’s health and safety protocols and is expected to be available against the Hawks in Miami’s playoff opener on Sunday, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald tweets.
Adebayo entered the COVID-19 protocols on April 10 and coach Erik Spoelstra indicated on Friday that he expected his starting center to clear them this weekend.
This is obviously a major development in the series, particularly since the Hawks could be without center Clint Capela, who suffered a knee injury during the play-in victory over Cleveland on Friday. Adebayo averaged 22.5 PPG, 6.o RPG and 4.5 APG in two games against Atlanta this season.
For the season, Adebayo averaged a career-best 19.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG and 3.4 APG in 56 games. He hasn’t played since April 8, when Miami defeated Atlanta by four points.
10:02pm: The team appears to be optimistic that Capela didn’t suffer a major injury, but he’ll undergo an MRI on Saturday to determine if there’s any structural damage, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (via Twitter).
8:02pm: Hawks center Clint Capela suffered a hyperextension of his right knee in Atlanta’s play-in contest against Cleveland and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game, the team announced (via Twitter).
The injury occurred in the second quarter of the game. After an Evan Mobley pump-fake, Capela fouled Mobley, who then fell backwards into Capela’s right knee, bending it backwards while it was planted.
It was a scary looking injury and Capela immediately went down in pain, grabbing his knee. He had to be helped back to the locker-room with the assistance of teammates.
Atlanta trailed 61-51 at halftime of the contest, which will determine the No. 8 seed in the East. Capela’s absence could be a devastating blow for the Hawks, who were already playing without John Collins, the team’s normal starter at power forward.
Second-year big man Onyeka Okongwu is starting in place of Capela in the second half and figures to see heavy minutes in his absence. Little-used backup Gorgui Dieng could also receive some playing time with Atlanta’s frontcourt shorthanded.
APRIL 15: Allen will make his return and start in the make-or-break matchup to determine the No. 8 seed in the East, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. The Cavs will also start Caris LeVert at shooting guard, with Isaac Okoro heading to the bench.
Charania first reported (via Twitter) that Allen would return on Friday, barring a last-minute setback.
APRIL 14: Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen, who is officially listed as questionable on the team’s injury report, is going to attempt to return for Cleveland’s play-in game against the Hawks on Friday, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski states (via Twitter) that Allen considers the odds of him returning to be “50-50,” as the pain in his fractured left middle finger is still bothering him quite a bit, but he’s intent on helping the Cavs make the playoffs. Allen missed the last 18 games of the regular season and Tuesday’s play-in tournament loss to Brooklyn after sustaining the injury on March 6.
A first-time All-Star in 2021/22, Allen had a stellar season for Cleveland, averaging 16.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks while shooting 67.7% from the field and 70.8% from the free throw line. He appeared in 56 games, with an average of 32.3 minutes per contest. The team was just 9-17 in the 26 games Allen missed this season.
Hawks big man John Collins has officially been ruled out for Friday’s game, tweets Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. Collins has been dealing with a right foot sprain and plantar fascia tear, as well as a right ring finger sprain. He was considered unlikely to play in the matchup to determine the No. 8 seed in the East, so the fact that he has formally been listed as out isn’t surprising.
In other injury-related news for the Hawks, Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable with a left ankle sprain, while Lou Williams has been ruled out with lower back discomfort, per Kirschner.
The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:
- A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
- A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the 2020/21 season. We outlined those tweaks at the start of the season.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.
Last offseason, for instance, Bruce Brown met the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, increasing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,736,102. The Nets decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it. Had he fallen short of the starter criteria, Brown only would have been eligible for a qualifying offer worth around $2MM and his free agency could have played out very differently.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who did not meet the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,228,448.
- Marvin Bagley III (Pistons)
- Collin Sexton (Cavaliers)
- Kevin Knox (Hawks)
Seven of the 14 players selected with lottery picks in the 2018 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2021, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason.
Of the other seven, the three players listed above failed to meet the criteria. Bagley is the biggest loser in the trio — his qualifying offer would’ve been worth approximately $14.76MM if he had met the starter criteria. Sexton’s would’ve been about $8.56MM, while Knox’s would’ve been $7.92MM.
Even with the amount of his qualifying offer lowered a little, Knox likely won’t receive a QO at all, making him an unrestricted free agent. Bagley and Sexton are much safer bets for QOs.
Top-14 picks Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Mohamed Bamba (Magic), each met the starter criteria, locking in their QO amounts at $16.42MM and $10.1MM, respectively. Miles Bridges (Hornets) also met the starter criteria, as detailed in the next section.
Jerome Robinson was the only top-14 pick from ’18 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — he’s no longer on an NBA roster and won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer this summer.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
A player who fell into this category would see the amount of his qualifying offer increase to $7,921,300. Bridges, the No. 12 overall pick, was the only player to qualify.
As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Bridges’ qualifying offer will increase from about $7.46MM to $7.92MM, a modest bump. It shouldn’t change the outlook of his free agency, since he’ll almost certainly receive a lucrative long-term offer.
Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons looked like one of the best candidates to join Bridges in this group. He needed to make 41 starts this season for Portland, but only got to 30 before he was shut down for the season with a left knee injury. His qualifying offer will remain at $5.76MM, but that shouldn’t have a major impact on his free agency, since he’ll likely work out a multiyear deal with the Blazers.
Meanwhile, because Kings wing Donte DiVincenzo was a full-time starter for the Bucks in 2020/21, he only needed to make seven starts this season to meet the starter criteria. However, he ultimately started just once for Milwaukee and Sacramento, even when he was playing heavy minutes down the stretch for the Kings.
DiVincenzo’s qualifying offer will remain at $6.6MM, which actually could have a tangible effect on his free agency — if he doesn’t get a multiyear offer with a starting salary much higher than his qualifying offer, accepting the QO and reaching unrestricted free agency in 2023 may be DiVincenzo’s best option. Presumably, that’s why his camp reportedly wasn’t thrilled that he was still coming off the bench at the end of the season.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,869,012.
Luguentz Dort (Thunder)- Jae’Sean Tate (Rockets)
Of course, it’s very possible neither Dort nor Tate will even become a free agent this summer, since their contracts both include team options for 2022/23.
The Thunder could decide to turn down Dort’s minimum-salary option for next season in order to make him a restricted free agent this year instead of an unrestricted free agent next year, but there’s no guarantee they’ll go that route. If they do, his QO would be worth $4.87MM instead of $2.22MM.
Meanwhile, there’s no incentive for the Rockets to decline Tate’s option, since he’ll still be eligible for restricted free agency in 2023, so the amount of his potential qualifying offer this summer will be rendered moot.
Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, Hornets wing Cody Martin (1,866 minutes), Clippers swingman Amir Coffey (30 starts), and Trail Blazers forward CJ Elleby (28 starts) are a few who were in the ballpark of the starter criteria, but none got there. Martin, Coffey, Elleby, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
Through four games, there have been no upsets in the NBA’s 2022 play-in tournament. Both No. 7 seeds won on Tuesday and both No. 9 seeds were victorious on Wednesday, setting up a pair of No. 8 vs. No. 9 showdowns on Friday.
In the East, it’ll be the No. 9 Hawks visiting the No. 8 Cavaliers, and for the first time in this year’s play-in tournament, the road team will enter the game as the betting favorite. The Hawks are currently favored by 2.5 points on BetOnline.ag.
Although the Hawks finished the season a game behind the Cavaliers in the standings, Atlanta was clearly the better team in the second half. While the Hawks finished the season on a 26-14 run, the Cavs struggled to hold their spot in the Eastern Conference standings after a hot start and went 9-17 down the stretch. The two teams’ play-in results so far reflect that second-half momentum — Cleveland never led against Brooklyn on Tuesday, while Atlanta controlled Wednesday’s game against Charlotte for nearly the entire night.
Cleveland’s home-court advantage will be a boon. And if Jarrett Allen is able to return from his finger injury while John Collins‘ own finger and foot injuries keep him sidelined, the Cavs should have an advantage in the frontcourt. But there’s a real possibility that after holding a top-six spot for much of the season, Cleveland could miss the playoffs altogether.
[Note: The following section on the Western play-in game was written before word broke that Paul George will miss the game due to a positive COVID-19 test.]
In the West, the No. 8 Clippers will host the No. 9 Pelicans, with L.A. listed as a four-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag.
The Clippers finished the year six games ahead of the Pelicans in the standings, but those end-of-season records are somewhat misleading. Since November 17, New Orleans has actually been better (34-32) than Los Angeles (33-35), and the Pelicans have taken another step forward since acquiring CJ McCollum at the trade deadline.
Of course, that’s not to say that the Clippers were spiraling when the regular season ended — they’d just gotten Paul George and Norman Powell back in their lineup following lengthy injury absences and won their last five games of the year before losing a tight one in Minnesota on Tuesday.
Friday’s do-or-die late game would be can’t-miss TV if injured forwards Kawhi Leonard (ACL) and Zion Williamson (foot) were available, but even without those stars on the court, these are two talented, well-coached teams who each look capable of securing the No. 8 spot in the West.
We want to know what you think. Which teams will claim the final two playoff spots on Friday, and which two clubs are headed home?
Vote in our poll before Friday night, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!
The Hawks have formally ruled out big man John Collins (foot/finger) for Wednesday’s play-in game. And even in the event the team wins that game, Collins is unlikely to play on Friday, tweets Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.
If the Hawks win both play-in games and earn the No. 8 seed, it’s still possible Collins could play in the club’s first-round series vs. Miami. However, according to Kirschner, while the 24-year-old’s foot has improved, his injured finger remains an issue — he’s still experiencing pain and is unable to grip the basketball.
- Hawks wing Bogdan Bogdanovic spoke to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic about his relationship with Trae Young, his role off the bench, and the team’s postseason potential.