Celtics Rumors

Eight RFAs Well Positioned For Long-Term Contracts

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a monster payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team often have to overpay to do it — just ask Tim Hardaway Jr., who almost certainly did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted last summer. Otto Porter, Tony Snell, Joe Ingles, Cristiano Felicio, and Mason Plumlee were among the other 2017 RFAs who secured lucrative long-term deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down big four-year offers last offseason and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. Alex Len and Nikola Mirotic were among the other RFAs who remained on the market for months before eventually signing modest deals.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a lucrative long-term deal is generally preferred, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2018 free agent period, league-wide cap space isn’t expected to be as abundant as it has been over the past couple years, but there are still a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big contracts. Here are eight of them:

  1. Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela may not have the dynamic sort of skill set that some of the NBA’s best big men possess, but he does exactly what the Rockets need him to — finish at the basket (.651 FG%), grab rebounds (10.9 RPG), and protect the rim (1.8 BPG). Barring a major surprise, I’d expect Houston to go well into tax territory to ensure that he and Chris Paul both get lucrative new deals this summer.
  2. Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): After opening the season with a red-hot shooting stretch (.595 3PT% in his first 10 games), Gordon has posted more pedestrian shooting numbers since then (.299 3PT% in his last 39 games). The former fourth overall pick becomes an extremely dangerous offensive weapon when his three-pointer is working, but even without it, he makes for an intriguing free agent option. Gordon is still just 22 years old, and coming off a career year, he’s a good bet to land a big offer sheet from a team with cap room if the Magic drag their feet in negotiations.
  3. Julius Randle, F/C (Lakers): With Larry Nance Jr. sent to Cleveland and Kyle Kuzma unable to sustain his hot start all season long, Randle has been the Lakers‘ most impressive big man for the last three months. Since entering the starting lineup on December 29, the former Kentucky standout has averaged 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG, making a case for a spot on the Lakers’ long-term plans even if the team is able to land a top outside free agent or two this summer. The Mavericks have been cited most frequently as a potential suitor for Randle if he seeks out an offer sheet.
  4. Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): Although injuries have prevented LaVine from taking another step forward this season, that’s unlikely to significantly impact his free agent value. The Bulls traded for LaVine last offseason knowing that a pricey new deal was on the horizon, and there has been no indication that the team has wavered on the idea of locking him up to a long-term pact.
  5. Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): Had Parker stayed healthy during his first four NBA seasons, he may already have a maximum salary extension secured. Instead, two ACL injuries have created uncertainty about what his next contract will look like. The former No. 2 overall pick reportedly passed on an offer last fall that would have paid him $18MM annually, and while he may not do better than that on the open market, his market shouldn’t crater. Parker already has a 20+ PPG season under his belt, and has put up career-best shooting numbers since returning from his latest ACL tear — his scoring potential will be tantalizing enough for a team with cap flexibility to take a shot on him if the Bucks don’t re-sign him right away.
  6. Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): Nurkic has been somewhat inconsistent this season, particularly on offense, but the Trail Blazers‘ defense continues to perform better and commit fewer fouls when he’s on the court, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote this week. A 23-year-old center capable of anchoring a defense for a top-six team in the NBA is a rarity — that makes him a good bet to do well for himself in free agency.
  7. Marcus Smart, G (Celtics): Like Nurkic, Smart isn’t necessarily a reliable go-to option on offense, but his defensive ability makes him a valuable rotation piece. According to Basketball-Reference’s on/off-court stats, the Celtics allow about five fewer points per 100 possessions and force more turnovers when Smart is on the floor. While his shooting numbers (.367/.301/.729) leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old should at least be in line for an Andre Roberson-type contract (three years, $30MM).
  8. Fred VanVleet, G (Raptors): The only player on this list who wasn’t a first-round pick, VanVleet actually wasn’t drafted at all, joining the Raptors as a rookie free agent in 2016. He has developed into a solid backup point guard this season, averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.5 APG with a .450/.432/.867 shooting line since the start of 2018. His success creates an interesting predicament for the Raptors, who project to be a taxpayer in 2018/19, and could have to contend with a rival suitor back-loading an offer sheet for VanVleet via the Arenas provision. Toronto may ultimately need to trade another expensive contract if they want to retain VanVleet without committing to a huge tax bill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Celtics Plan To Apply For Hardship Exception

3:51pm: The Celtics will be in the market for a guard or wing if and when they receive a hardship exception, tweets Murphy.

1:48pm: The Celtics intend to apply for a hardship exception that would allow the team to add a 16th player to its 15-man NBA roster, reports Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald (Twitter link). It’s not yet known which player Boston would sign if granted that extra roster spot.

[RELATED: Kyrie Irving undergoing procedure on left knee]

The hardship provision – outlined in the NBA’s Constitution and By-Laws – allows a team to apply for an extra roster spot if it has at least four players who have missed three or more consecutive games, assuming those players will remain sidelined for the foreseeable future. Murphy’s report suggests that those four injured players must be projected to miss the next 10 days, though the NBA’s Operations Manual lists a time frame of two weeks.

Either way, applying for such an exception would signal that the Celtics don’t expect Kyrie Irving to return for at least the next 10-14 days. Irving would be the fourth injured Celtic, along with Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis, and Marcus Smart. Jaylen Brown has also been on the shelf, but he’s aiming to return on Sunday, so he wouldn’t qualify as one of the club’s four injured players for hardship purposes.

Any player signed by the Celtics via the hardship exception would likely receive a 10-day contract. Boston would lose the ability to carry 16 men on their roster at the end of the regular season, or once one of their four injured players is ready to return. At that point, the C’s would have to waive their newly-added player — or keep him and cut someone else.

Atlantic Notes: Embiid, Postseason, McCarty, Mudiay

Joel Embiids extensive injury history forced the Sixers to get creative with his playing schedule, which included not playing in back-to-backs for much of this season. But as the 76ers gear up for the postseason, Embiid wants no part of resting and wants to play in every game, Jessica Camerato of NBC Sports Philadelphia relays.

“We didn’t come this far to rest me,” Embiid said. “I mean, I was always complaining about playing every game and playing back-to-backs. I’m sure the fans were, too. Now that we’re here, I can understand maybe the last game before we get ready for the playoffs, but other than that, I want to play every game because that’s my first time I get the chance to do that.”

Embiid is averaging over 31 minutes per contest as the Sixers occupy the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. A healthy Embiid is imperative if Philadelphia wants a deep postseason run. Head coach Brett Brown indicated that the team will look to give its young center rest whenever possible, despite his competitive nature.

Check out more Atlantic Division notes:

  • The Sixers have played well down the stretch and are in a prime spot entering the postseason. In Brett Brown‘s own words, the Sixers hope to maintain this pace for the 11 games the team has left after Thursday, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “We respect the journey,” Brown said, “and we don’t intend on letting what we built so far go easily. We are of where we’re at. We want to hold on to where we’re at. And we want to play good basketball.”
  • Celtics assistant coach Walter McCarty will assume the role as head coach of the NCAA’s Evansville Purple Aces, sources tell Jon Rothstein of FanRag Sports. McCarty spent most of his NBA career as a player with the Celtics but he is an Evansville, Indiana native. Adam Himmelsbach‏ of the Boston Globe tweets that the Celtics will not look to immediately replace McCarty.
  • Emmanuel Mudiay has been the Knicks‘ starting point guard since the All-Star break but he has struggled with all facets of the game. A visibly frustrated Jeff Hornacek said the team needs to see what Mudiay is capable of over a prolonged stretch, Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News writes. “We’re not just going to have (13 games with Mudiay starting) and make a judgment call on a guy,” Hornacek said. “We’ve seen the other guys. The other guys are coming off the bench. Trey continues to prove that he’s a guy that can really give us something. We’re trying to see and see if he can get used to our guys and we just go that way.”

No Update On Irving; Brown Targeting Sunday Return?

  • There likely won’t be an update on Kyrie Irving‘s status today, a league source tells Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Mannix reports that the Celtics should know more within the next day or two about Irving’s ailing left knee. The team did get some good news on Jaylen Brown, who said today that he’s feeling better and hopes to play on Sunday in Sacramento (Twitter link).

And-Ones: Playoff Format, Billups, Future Power Rankings

Don’t expect LeBron James to be among those lobbying on behalf of a potential play-in tournament for a postseason berth. The NBA has reportedly kicked the idea around in a couple different variations, but James said today that he’s not a fan of the concept, as Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com details.

“No, no, no,” James said. “That’s wack. That’s wack. Why? You got to earn your spot to be in the postseason. No consolation for finishing last. That’s corny. That’s corny. That’s wack. To play for what? What are they playing for?”

While there’s a belief in some league circles that a play-in tournament at the end of the regular season to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference would generate some drama, James is a firm believer that the eight teams with the best records in each conference deserve to make the playoffs.

“[Make the playoffs by winning the tournament], even if my record is better than yours? Nah, that’s wack,” James said.

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Appearing on ESPN’s The Jump on Tuesday, Chauncey Billups called a report about the Pistons expressing interest in him for a front office role “100% false,” per Rod Beard of The Detroit News. “I haven’t spoken to anybody with the organization about the possibility,” Billups said. Still, this isn’t the first time Billups has been linked to a front office job — if the former NBA guard does land somewhere as an executive, former Pistons assistant GM George David would be a candidate to potentially join him, tweets Vince Ellis of The Detroit Free Press.
  • Nine NBA teams have been officially eliminated from the postseason. While the 2017/18 season has been a fairly forgettable one for those clubs, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer highlights some silver linings worth mentioning.
  • Over at ESPN.com (Insider link), Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks have updated their future NBA power rankings, which consider each team’s outlook through the 2020/21 season. Unsurprisingly, the Warriors, Celtics, and Rockets still top their list, with the Sixers and Raptors jumping into the top five.

Donovan: Horford Is A Winner

  • Current Thunder head coach Billy Donovan still speaks highly of his former player at Florida – Celtics big man Al Horford, reports Taylor Snow of Celtics.com. “What I’ve always respected about (Al) is that it’s always about winning; he’ll do whatever he has to do to win and sacrifice whatever he has to to win.”

Celtics Notes: Smart, Irving, Morris, Thomas, McCarty

As indicated in previous stories, Marcus Smart is expected to miss about six weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. The plan is for Smart to return to action should the Celtics make it to the second round of the playoffs and, per Chris Forsberg of ESPN, Smart is supremely confident that he will be able to return this postseason.

“I am confident [I’ll be back for the playoffs],” Smart said Monday night. “I had one of the top [hand] doctors do it. The surgery was a success… I’m real, real, real excited and eager to get back out there, whenever that is, hopefully it’s sooner than later, like I said. Hopefully the team can and, like I think they’re gonna do, is handle their business and have me back [in the postseason].”

Smart originally thought his injury was only a sprain, and even after further testing revealed more extensive ligament damage, he weighed non-surgical treatment options before finally deciding on having the surgery when doctors told him he risked further complications that might force him out of action for a longer period of time should he have tried to play before undergoing the procedure.

“The first [thing] was could I damage it any more?” Smart said. “When we went to get the second opinion, they said the same thing: The ligament is torn completely. There’s nothing else you can do. Then there was, ‘OK, could I possibly play with it and get the surgery afterwards?’ That came into play and when she said — the doctor pretty much said, ‘If it was me, I would get this now. The longer you wait, the harder it [will be] and cause more complications. So just get it over with and then there’s a possibility you could be back sooner than you thought.'”

There’s more out of Boston:

  • All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving plans on obtaining a second opinion later this week for his ailing left knee, tweets Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports.
  • Marcus Morris was fined $15K for “verbal abuse of a game official,” it was announced today by the NBA. The incident occurred at the conclusion of the Celtics’ 19-point loss to New Orleans on Sunday.
  • Former Celtic and soon-to-be free agent guard Isaiah Thomas is willing to return to Boston next season, reports NBC Sports Boston. Asked on Twitter whether he would consider a reunion this offseason, Thomas tweeted, “Anything can happen.”
  • Celtics assistant coach and former player Walter McCarty will interview for the head coaching vacancy at the University of Evansville, writes Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. Born and raised in Evansville, IN, McCarty is looking to become a head coach for the first time after also having spent time as an assistant at the University of Louisville and with the Pacers.

Hayward Didn't Have 'Setback'; Irving, Brown Still Out

Celtics‘ president of basketball operations Danny Ainge believes he gave the wrong impression this week when he said Gordon Hayward suffered a setback in his rehab, relays Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald. Looking back, Ainge believes “setback” was too strong a term and created inaccurate headlines about Hayward’s progress.

“What happened is he went on the AlterG [anti-gravity treadmill] the first day and he felt some soreness,” the Celtics’ top decision-maker explained. “It was the first day he tried the AlterG, a long time ago. He just wasn’t ready for it at that point. That’s all it was. So I think ‘setback’ is the wrong way to put it. I mis-phrased that. I’m not sure what the right word is, but he wasn’t ready for that. So we waited a couple of weeks before we started that again, and since we started that again it’s been great and he’s progressed along on the AlterG. That’s all. It wasn’t like he had an accident or anything like that.”

Despite Ainge’s clarification, the Celtics haven’t changed their opinion that Hayward won’t return to the court this season, which has their stance since he broke his ankle on opening night. Ainge said Hayward hasn’t done any “running or even jogging or real jumping” on the practice court and there’s not enough of the season left to make a comeback realistic.

  • The Celtics continue to be cautious with Kyrie Irving, who has been limited by a sore left knee, Bulpett adds in the same story. Irving was held out of tonight’s game, and coach Brad Stevens said the star guard won’t play again until he feels 100 percent. Teammate Jaylen Brown remains in concussion protocol, but the Celtics plan to bring him on upcoming West Coast trip.

Rozier Willing To Help Convince Smart To Stay In Boston

  • Celtics guard Terry Rozier is hoping Marcus Smart can return in the playoffs and promises to help convince him to stay in Boston this summer, relays Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald. Smart is expected to miss about six weeks after surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb and could return for a second-round series. He will be a restricted free agent this summer. “If I’m part of the plan in recruiting Marcus to stay here, then that’s what I’m going to have to do,” Rozier said.
  • In a St. Patrick’s Day column, A. Sherrod Blakely of NBC Sports Boston examines the ways that good luck that has touched the Celtics in recent years. Examples include the emergence of Rozier, the availability of Kyrie Irving and the Hornets’ refusal to accept a parcel of draft picks in exchange for their ninth selection in 2015 when team president Danny Ainge wanted to draft Justise Winslow.

Celtics Unlikely To Use Hardship Exception

  • The injury bug has hit the Celtics hard in recently as Daniel TheisMarcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown suffered season-altering injuries. In the wake of those health issues, Marcus Morris is the first Boston player to step up and take advantage of his new spot in the starting lineup, A. Sherrod Blakely of NBC Sports Boston relays. Morris scored 31 points on Wednesday vs. Washington.
  • The Celtics are without Theis, Smart, Brown, and Gordon Hayward and it’s possible the team explores adding a player to offset the losses. Per Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe (Twitter links), if a league doctor feels Brown could miss two more weeks due to his concussion, the Celtics could be granted a 16th roster spot to add another player. However, Boston is optimistic Brown will return soon, which would make the team ineligible for the hardship provision.