- Jayson Tatum (left knee contusion) and Al Horford (low back stiffness) both missed the Celtics‘ double overtime loss to Cleveland on Monday. As Tim Bontemps of ESPN observes (via Twitter), Horford played 45 minutes on Sunday and still hasn’t played both ends of a back-to-back set this season, so his absence came as no surprise. Tatum sustained his injury in a collision on Sunday.
Two years ago, the Knicks followed up a successful, expectation-defying regular season with a quick playoff exit, as they fell in five games to Atlanta. This year’s team, which has also gotten hot after a shaky start, bears some similarities to that 2020/21 squad. However, forward Julius Randle is higher on the current Knicks’ ceiling.
“I think we’re a better team,” Randle said, per Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. “More talented team.”
As Bondy points out, the ’20/21 version of the Knicks rode the NBA’s fourth-best defense to a 41-31 season, but ranked just 22nd on offense. This year’s club is more balanced, ranking in the top half of the league in both offense and defense and posting the NBA’s seventh-best net rating to date. While it remains to be seen whether that balance will translate to postseason success, RJ Barrett believes the team will be better prepared for the playoffs than it was in 2021.
“Looking back and thinking back about that series (vs. Atlanta), there are things we could have done better,” Barrett said. “Experience now will help us as well. Hopefully when we get there. So that was a good series for us to know what to expect.”
Here’s more on the NBA’s two New York teams:
- Immanuel Quickley‘s breakout season has strengthened his case for a rookie scale extension during the 2023 offseason, writes Zach Braziller of The New York Post. In an effort to gauge Quickley’s value, Braziller spoke to ESPN cap expert Bobby Marks, who speculated that a deal in the range of De’Andre Hunter‘s extension with Atlanta (four years, $90MM, plus $5MM in incentives) might be about right for the Knicks guard. On the other hand, holding off on a new deal for Quickley would put the team in position to maximize its 2024 cap room. “I think the next month-and-a-half and the playoffs will determine if the value of an extension outweighs prioritizing cap space,” Marks told Braziller.
- Oddsmakers have made Quickley the new frontrunner to win the Sixth Man of the Year award this season, moving him ahead of Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon, notes Cole Huff of The Athletic.
- After signing a 10-day contract, Nerlens Noel said he’ll bring “energy” to the Nets and that he’s willing to play whatever role head coach Jacque Vaughn asks of him. “This is already a top-10 defense, I’m pretty sure, especially with what they have, so I’m going to put it over the top,” Noel said, per Brian Lewis of The New York Post (Twitter links). “And however coach sees fit into what position he wants to put me in, I’ll accept regardless.”
- In a normal season, Vaughn would wait until near the end of the season to start to ramp up his starters’ minutes in preparation for the playoffs, but he’s doing it a bit earlier this year to try to give his newcomers more time together, as Andrew Crane of The New York Post relays. Mikal Bridges, for instance, has played over 40 minutes in each of Brooklyn’s last two games. “In the past … we’ve played our guys not as many minutes, and then as the playoffs start to come around, we wanted to ramp those guys up so they can play, quote-unquote, playoff minutes,” Vaughn explained. “I’m trying to hedge that a little bit with the short time between regular season and this group being together and playoffs.”
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla announced that center Robert Williams will be sidelined for seven-to-10 days with a strained left hamstring, writes Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe. However, given Williams’ history of injuries, Washburn believes he could be out longer and it might be best to shut him down until the playoffs.
Williams didn’t play Sunday after hurting his hamstring in Friday’s loss to the Nets. Washburn notes that even though Sunday’s game went to two overtimes, Mazzulla didn’t bring big men Luke Kornet or Blake Griffin off his bench. Grant Williams was used at center for long stretches of the game, and the Knicks repeatedly attacked him on the pick-and-roll.
According to Washburn, the Celtics believe they can survive the loss of their starting center with their current rotation of big men. However, he notes that the team has an open roster spot and there are numerous veteran free agents for president of basketball operations Brad Stevens to consider.
There’s more from Boston:
- After holding the NBA’s best record for most of the season, the Celtics have now dropped three of their last four games, Washburn adds. Mazzulla said he has “zero concerns” about the recent rough patch, framing it as an opportunity for the team to grow. “You obviously want to be playing your best basketball later in the season as you get closer to the playoffs, but this is a tough stretch,” Mazzulla said. “And whatever this stretch has you have to learn from it and use it later in the year.”
- With Robert Williams unavailable, Mazzulla went back to his early-season lineup by inserting Derrick White into the starting five, per Brian Robb of MassLive. White had 12 points, six rebounds and four assists in 32 minutes, and Robb suggests he could be considered the team’s third-most valuable player behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
- Al Horford believes a lack of focus is causing the Celtics to let big leads slip away, according to Souichi Terada of MassLive. Brooklyn overcame a 28-point deficit Friday night, and New York trailed by as many as 14 points on Sunday. “We’re not locking in as much as we need to,” Horford said. “This is the second time that we kind of have a lead, we feel good about it, a team makes a run and we just kind of let them back in the game. And throughout the season, you’re gonna have adversity. We’ve played pretty good basketball most of the year, and this is a time where you tighten up, you fix some of these things, some of these issues, or it goes the other way.”
Al Horford seemed to accept a deal below his market value when he agreed to a two-year, $20MM extension with the Celtics in December, but an unidentified league executive tells Steve Bulpett of Heavy that Horford’s decision was likely driven by market realities as well as his loyalty to Boston. Although Horford remains productive, he’ll turn 37 this summer. Most of the teams with cap room are rebuilding and won’t be looking for older players.
“Look at Boston. This is a perfect situation — for both sides,” the executive said. “Al’s a really important part of what they do. But if they didn’t already have him — if he was a free agent last summer — they wouldn’t have been able to spend big money on him. But it’s clear he wanted to stay there now, and this deal is good for him, too. He didn’t break the bank, but after all that he’s made in his career, that probably wasn’t that important to him. He gets good money to be where he really wants to be. There’s a value in that. And by signing for two more years now, it also covers him in the event of an injury that either stops him from playing or makes him a lot less effective.”
Horford was a fixture in Boston for three years before accepting a big-money offer from the Sixers in 2019. Earlier this season, Horford told Bulpett that the disruptive atmosphere Kyrie Irving brought to the Celtics played a role in his decision to move on.
“I just think that if Kyrie would have stayed, I don’t know if it would have worked,” Horford said. “There would have had to be some major changes as far as players, because it was just clear that the group that we had just wasn’t going to be able to coexist.”
There’s more from Boston:
- Grant Williams logged 18 minutes Friday night after not playing at all on Wednesday. A prolonged shooting slump from beyond the arc and the addition of Mike Muscala at the trade deadline have cut into playing time for Williams, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, notes Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. “He knows what he brings to this team and the type of player he is,” Jaylen Brown said of Williams. “He’s been able to carve value out in this league, so a couple games here and there based upon whatever the coaching staff thinks doesn’t mean any more or less.”
- Joe Mazzulla has done an admirable coaching job, but there were red flags as a 28-point lead disappeared in Friday’s loss to the Nets, writes Brian Robb of MassLive. Mazzulla was reluctant to match up when Brooklyn used smaller lineups and his bench remains disorganized beyond Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon, Robb observes.
- Robert Williams has been ruled out for Sunday after leaving Friday’s game with tightness in his left hamstring, tweets Tim Bontemps of ESPN.
- It looked like Al Horford‘s NBA career might be winding down when he was traded in a salary-dump deal in 2020 following a failed stint in Philadelphia, but the 36-year-old has resurrected his career during his second stint with the Celtics. Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports has the story.
- Celtics forward Grant Williams received his first DNP-CD of the season on Wednesday in a four-point win over Cleveland. Asked after the game why Williams didn’t play at all, head coach Joe Mazzulla simply replied, “Matchups” (Twitter link via Jared Weiss of The Athletic). Williams is in a contract year and will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer.
- Celtics star forward Jayson Tatum got his first career ejection in a loss to the Knicks on Monday but he playfully put a positive spin on it, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps writes. “All the great players get thrown out a few times in their career,” he said. “So, it’s good for my rep.”
- The Knicks won’t have to deal with the Celtics’ second-leading scorer when the teams square off on Monday. Jaylen Brown is taking the night off for personal reasons, Chris Forsberg of NBC Sports Boston tweets.
As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”
A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.
If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player drafted at No. 10 or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.
Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:
- A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
- A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
- A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.
A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.
However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.
The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.
So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:
- P.J. Washington, Hornets (60 starts)
- Tre Jones, Spurs (52 starts)
- Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls (49 starts)
Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.
As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.
Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:
- Coby White, Bulls (top-14 pick)
- Jaxson Hayes, Pelicans (top-14 pick)
- Rui Hachimura, Lakers (top-14 pick)
- Cameron Johnson, Nets (top-14 pick)
- Romeo Langford, Spurs (top-14 pick)
- Matisse Thybulle, Trail Blazers (No. 20 pick)
- Grant Williams, Celtics (No. 22 pick)
- Herbert Jones, Pelicans (second-round pick) *
- Kenyon Martin Jr., Rockets (second-round pick) *
- Naji Marshall, Pelicans (UDFA) *
(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)
White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.
Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.
It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.
Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.
Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.
Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.
With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.
- Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe (subscriber link) believes the Celtics are well-positioned to win the team’s first championship since 2008 and says there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to achieve that goal. One key down the stretch will be maintaining their narrow advantage over the Bucks for the No. 1 seed in the East, Washburn notes — the Bucks have the second-best home record in the league, so playing a potential Game 7 in Milwaukee would certainly be less than ideal for Boston.