Nets Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

March 11th, 2023 at 1:02pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Atlantic players.

James Harden, G, Sixers

2022/23: $33MM
2023/24: $35.64MM player option
Stock: Up

Harden started to look a little old and out of shape in 2021/22, never quite recovering from a reoccurring hamstring injury originally sustained in late ‘20/21.

His counting stats were still excellent (22.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 10.3 APG, 1.3 SPG), but he lacked burst when driving and shot the ball poorly for his standards, posting a .410/.330/.877 shooting line (58.3% true shooting percentage). 33.0% was a career-low from three, and his FG% and TS% were his lowest marks since his rookie year back in ‘09/10.

Harden wound up taking a “pay cut” in free agency last summer to allow the Sixers to sign P.J. Tucker and Danuel House. However, the contract was only a one-plus-one, so he can opt out of his player option and become a free agent again this summer.

He seemed to be in great shape to open ‘22/23, but unfortunately sustained a foot injury which caused him to miss 14 games. He has looked very good since he returned.

The 33-year-old may no longer be at his peak form, when he led the league in scoring for three straight years from 2017-20, but he’s not far from it. Harden has acclimated nicely to being more of a distributor alongside Joel Embiid, averaging 21.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, a league-leading 10.8 APG and 1.1 SPG on a .448/.397/.874 shooting line (62.2 TS%) through 49 games (36.9 MPG).

39.7% from deep is a career-high for the former league MVP, as is his 3.19-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Advanced stats say he has been among the top 10 or 15 players in the league.

I know many people think the rumors about Harden potentially going back to Houston in the offseason are a negotiating ploy to increase the value of his next deal. I could very well be wrong, but I’m not in that group.

I realize Harden will be 34 in the summer, and the Rockets have a team full of young players. But I really believe he might opt out and sign a four-year, maximum-salary contract with his former team, regardless of how the Sixers do in the playoffs. He just seemed happier there, and the Rockets are motivated to improve because they don’t control their own pick in 2024. We’ll see what happens.

Dewayne Dedmon, C, Sixers

2022/23: Details below
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Dedmon’s financial situation is a little complicated. The Pistons used the stretch provision on his contract back in 2020 after acquiring him from Atlanta, so he will continue to be paid $2.87MM each season by Detroit through 2024/25.

The veteran center had a falling out with Miami and was suspended for a game after knocking a piece of medical equipment onto the court following an argument with the coaching staff. He only played one more game for the Heat before he was moved to San Antonio in a salary dump.

The Spurs subsequently waived Dedmon’s $4.7MM contract, and he signed a rest-of-season deal with Philadelphia for the veteran’s minimum. However, he has yet to appear in a game with his new club after initially being sidelined with hip soreness.

Dedmon posted an abysmal minus-10.4 net rating with the Heat, and his effectiveness was clearly diminished in part due to plantar fasciitis in his foot. If he hopes to find a deal for more than the minimum this summer, the 33-year-old will have to prove he’s healthy and can still contribute at a high level — he’s running out of time to do so.

Jakob Poeltl, C, Raptors

2022/23: $9.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Acquired in a deadline deal with San Antonio, Poeltl has gotten off to a great start in his second stint with Toronto, looking very motivated in averaging 14.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 SPG and 1.7 BPG while shooting 69% from the floor and 56.1% from the free throw line through 12 games (28.4 MPG).

The 7’1” big man has provided a jolt in some much-needed areas. He has been particularly adept at finishing on offense and protecting the paint at the other end. Poeltl is also a strong screener and passer, which helps compensate for his lack of shooting.

The 27-year-old is expected to command a salary in the range of $15-20MM per year in free agency this summer. If Poeltl keeps playing at this level, the high end of that range could be within reach, similar to what Jarrett Allen signed a couple years ago with the Cavs (five years, $100MM).

Seth Curry, G, Nets

2022/23: $8.5MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

The younger Curry brother has been one of the league’s top shooters since he started getting semi-regular minutes back in 2015/16, holding a career slash line of .475/.435/.865 in 426 games (206 starts, 24.7 MPG). However, he got off to a slow start in ‘22/23 following offseason ankle surgery, and is having a down year by his standards.

Curry has appeared in 49 of 67 games for the Nets with averages of 9.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG and 1.9 APG in 21.4 MPG. He’s averaging his fewest points, rebounds and minutes per game since ‘18/19, when he was with Portland.

He’s also shooting a career-worst 39.6% from three. It feels very weird saying that’s a low mark, but Curry had never previously shot below 42.2% from deep.

The 32-year-old has always been a poor defensive player, but this is the first time in several years where it feels like his deficiencies on that end have outweighed what he brings on offense – the Nets have statistically been worse on both ends when he’s on the court, with Curry posting a minus-2.8 net rating. The fit hasn’t been ideal either, as they have a few too many players with similar skill sets.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Curry gets a slight raise on his current deal if it’s only for a year or two, but I would be a little surprised if he gets a raise and a three- or four-year contract. As a very undersized shooting guard (6’1″, 185 pounds), he’s probably best suited for a bench role given his distinct strengths and weaknesses.

Projected NBA Taxpayers For 2022/23

March 11th, 2023 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

NBA teams established a new record for luxury tax penalties during the 2021/22 season, as seven clubs paid total tax payments exceeding $481MM, blowing away the previous single-year record of approximately $173MM. A year later, that record is on track to be shattered once again.

According to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom, the nine teams that are currently over the luxury tax line are on track to pay more than $625MM in total tax penalties.

Even after the trade deadline has passed, projected tax bills remain fluid due to possible roster moves, suspensions, incentives, and a handful of other factors. For instance, the Nets‘ projected tax bill increased when they signed Nerlens Noel to a 10-day contract earlier this week, and it’ll climb even further if they bring back Noel on a second 10-day pact or a rest-of-season deal.

Still, the current numbers will likely end up being pretty close to the final numbers, and they’re already pretty staggering. As Pincus outlines, here are the current penalties for this season’s taxpayers:

Golden State Warriors: $168.9MM
Los Angeles Clippers: $140.3MM
Milwaukee Bucks: $79.5MM
Boston Celtics: $65.3MM
Dallas Mavericks: $56.2MM
Phoenix Suns: $53.4MM
Los Angeles Lakers: $35.9MM
Denver Nuggets: $14.2MM
Brooklyn Nets: $11.8MM

As significant as the Warriors’ projected tax bill is, it still falls a little shy of the $170MM+ they paid last season en route to a championship. The Clippers’ and Bucks’ penalties will be substantially higher than they were a year ago though, and teams like the Celtics, Mavericks, and Suns will be on the hook for sizable bills after finishing last season out of the tax entirely.

It’s worth noting that the Nets, who paid a bill of nearly $98MM in 2022, were headed for a nine-figure penalty this year before last month’s Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades, so their new projection looks pretty good by comparison.

According to Pincus, the NBA’s 21 non-taxpayers are presently on track to receive payments worth about $14.9MM, since 50% of the penalties in a given league year are redistributed to the teams that finished out of the tax.

The shares for non-taxpayers would have been higher, but the Sixers joined that club by sneaking under the tax line at the trade deadline, while teams that were dangerously close to that threshold – like the Hawks, Trail Blazers, and Heat – created some extra breathing room with their pre-deadline deals.

The luxury tax system is expected to be modified in the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, so it will be interesting to see whether the record set this season for total tax payments ends up standing for a while.

New York Notes: Reddish, Brunson, Bridges, Nets

March 11th, 2023 at 9:07am CST by Luke Adams

Now a member of the Trail Blazers, forward Cam Reddish spoke to Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News about his disappointing stint with the Knicks, explaining that he felt as if the decision to bench him for his final 33 games with the team wasn’t about his on-court performance.

“It was tough but at the same time, it ain’t even about basketball,” Reddish said. “It had nothing to do with basketball. It was all the politics, all the favoritism. S–t like that. That’s why I wasn’t too worried about it.”

Reddish didn’t expand in any detail on that response, repeatedly telling Bondy that he’s simply happy to be in a better situation following the deadline deal that sent him to Portland. Reddish has started 10 of his 12 games for the Blazers, averaging a career-high 13.8 points per game on .464/.382/.857 shooting in 30.8 minutes per night. The 23-year-old added that he felt as if he had very little margin for error when he was a Knick.

“I can shoot a shot — and in New York, I feel like I HAD to make it,” Reddish said. “I know I’m not the only person that felt like that. I was putting too much pressure on myself. Now I can relax and play my game. You’re going to see it. The more I’m on the court, the more I’m going to grow and play. I’m happy.”

Here’s more on the NBA’s two New York teams:

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (left foot soreness) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game vs. the Clippers and it’s unclear whether he’ll be available for either of the last two contests of the team’s road trip (on Sunday and Tuesday), writes Peter Botte of The New York Post. Brunson’s status going forward is a real cause for concern, Botte notes, given that the Knicks are far from locking up a top-six spot in the East and Brunson has been the team’s most indispensable player this season.
The Nets knew they were adding a talented player when they acquired Mikal Bridges as the centerpiece of their return for Kevin Durant, but they weren’t expecting the kind of offensive production they’ve gotten so far from the fifth-year forward, says Brian Lewis of The New York Post. Bridges has put up 25.8 PPG on .514/.492/.900 shooting in 12 games (34.0 MPG) since arriving in Brooklyn. “I don’t think anybody knew that Mikal was this amazing offensively. Just being completely real,” new teammate Spencer Dinwiddie said. “It’s our job that he can get to his spots and get his shots and continue to stack up these (30-point nights) as much as he possibly can.”
In last month’s trades of Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets were focused on getting back as many current and future assets as possible. Soon, they’ll need to make some major decisions about their direction, including which of their current players are keepers and whether they plan to shop or hang onto their newly acquired first-round draft picks. In a subscriber-only story for The New York Post, Lewis takes a closer look at the decisions on tap in Brooklyn.

Nets Notes: Noel, Simmons, Duke, Smith, Ayton

March 10th, 2023 at 12:49pm CST by Luke Adams

With Spencer Dinwiddie (rest), Nic Claxton (right thumb sprain, left Achilles tendinopathy), Cameron Johnson (right knee soreness), and Royce O’Neale (left knee soreness) all unavailable in Milwaukee on Thursday, the Nets ran out a new-look starting lineup that scored just 15 total points, the lowest mark for any starting five since 2008, per Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press (Twitter link).

One of Brooklyn’s new starter was Nerlens Noel, who was playing in just his second game as a Net. Despite not scoring a single point, Noel was the only starter who had a plus/minus rating better than minus-14 (he was a plus-2) and made a positive impression on head coach Jacque Vaughn, as Brian Lewis of The New York Post relays.

“He continues to get himself in shape,” Vaughn said. “The charge that he took was great, putting his body on the line, so that was great. A (blocked shot) was great. So those things we want to continue to see from him.”

Noel’s contract with the Nets only covers 10 days, but so far he hasn’t been used like a player the team plans to soon part ways with, logging 18 minutes in consecutive games. Vaughn’s postgame comments also hinted that he expects the big man to be in Brooklyn for more than just 10 days.

“He’ll continue to learn conceptually what we want to do on the defensive end, and we’re switching back and forth between defenses, you know, so you got to turn your brain on and off and back on again,” Vaughn said of Noel. “So that challenge is what’s ahead of him.”

Here’s more on the Nets:

Ben Simmons, still dealing with knee and back issues, missed his eighth game in a row on Thursday, and Vaughn said Simmons’ back inflammation remains “in the process of settling down,” per Lewis. “A big piece of it is still the strengthening, to make sure that there’s no reoccurrence,” Vaughn said. “And then for a while we had to kind of press pause a little bit in order for the inflammation in the back to kind of settle down a little bit. So last few days, that’s what that’s look like.”
Although Brooklyn’s starting five was ineffective on Thursday, the team showed off its depth, scoring 98 bench points. That total was the highest in a regular season game since at least 1982, according to Reynolds, who notes (via Twitter) that Toronto scored 100 bench points vs. Brooklyn in a playoff game in 2020.
Nets two-way players David Duke and Dru Smith got a rare chance to play rotation minutes at the NBA level on Thursday and combined for 30 points. Duke and Smith have spent much of the season playing key roles for a Long Island Nets team that won its 16th straight game on Thursday, led by veteran point guard Chris Chiozza, according to NetsDaily. Brooklyn’s NBAGL affiliate now holds a league-best 22-3 record.
Sign-and-trade rules would have made it tricky for the Nets to acquire center Deandre Ayton from Phoenix in a package for Kevin Durant last summer, but Ayton would’ve been much easier to move at last month’s deadline. However, Ayton wasn’t part of the Suns‘ package for Durant and league sources tell Zach Lowe of ESPN (Insider link) that Brooklyn was “never much interested” in trading for the former No. 1 pick.

Atlantic Notes: Noel, Anunoby, Harden, M. Brown

March 8th, 2023 at 8:43pm CST by Arthur Hill

After not playing for nearly a month, Nerlens Noel got a workout in his first game with the Nets on a 10-day contract, writes Brian Lewis of The New York Post. Brooklyn won by a comfortable margin Tuesday night in Houston, allowing Noel to be on the court for nearly 18 minutes.

“I wanted to see could Nerlens play in a basketball game and contribute and be able to pick up what we’re doing as a group. Also see his quickness if he can protect the rim,” coach Jacque Vaughn said. “He’s on a 10-day, so I decided to use one of those 10 days pretty quickly to see what he was going to give us.”

Noel was playing sparingly in Detroit before agreeing to a buyout and hasn’t logged more than 18 minutes since mid-January. Brooklyn brought him in to provide another big man off the bench and ease the workload on starting center Nic Claxton.

“It felt good to get some rust off,” Noel said. “Yeah, a little winded in the first minutes, but it’s normal. Nobody can get away from that. But I’ve been doing a fair share. But at this point I just want to keep building on that, defensive-first mentality, rebounding, just try and make sure I bring a winning mentality to the game.”

There’s more from the Atlantic Division:

OG Anunoby‘s versatility and defensive prowess made him a popular name heading into the trade deadline, but it appears the Raptors made the right move by keeping him, contends Eric Koreen of The Athletic. Toronto will face some difficult financial decisions this summer, so an Anunoby deal may be revisited, but Koreen is impressed by the defensive potential of lineups with him and newly acquired center Jakob Poeltl.
James Harden believes he’s playing better this season because he has become more familiar with his teammates, per Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. The Sixers acquired the former MVP at last year’s trade deadline, and he only had a couple of months to get used to his new surroundings before the playoffs started. “Knowing each other on and off the court,” Harden said after handing out 20 assists Monday night. “I think off the court is just as valuable as learning somebody on the court. It helps actually. But just comfortable. When you are comfortable, it makes the game a lot easier.”
The two-way contract that Moses Brown signed with the Knicks only covers one season, tweets Ian Begley of SNY.tv. Brown plans to report to the team’s G League affiliate in Westchester and play Thursday night.

Nets GM Sean Marks Expected To Continue Running Front Office

March 8th, 2023 at 4:16pm CST by Rory Maher

Nets general manager Sean Marks is expected to remain in charge of Brooklyn’s front office in 2023/24, multiple sources tell Brian Lewis of The New York Post.

As Lewis writes, the past couple seasons have been nothing if not turbulent for both Marks and the Nets, mainly due to off-court controversies.

To open 2021/22, Kyrie Irving refused to get vaccinated against COVID-19, which reportedly played a role in James Harden requesting a trade ahead of last year’s deadline. The primary piece the Nets received in return, Ben Simmons, didn’t end up playing last season and underwent back surgery — he hasn’t looked like his old self for the majority of this season.

Last offseason, Kevin Durant requested his own trade and reportedly tried to have former head coach Steve Nash and Marks fired. Brooklyn eventually worked things out with Durant and he remained with the team heading into this season.

The Nets had a rough start to ’22/23, going 2-5 before parting ways with Nash. Things started to turn in a positive direction after Jacque Vaughn was promoted to interim head coach, then Irving was suspended by Brooklyn promoting an antisemitic film on social media. He wound up missing eight games, with the team going 5-3 in his absence.

The team was firing on all cylinders once Irving returned, with Durant playing at an MVP level. At one point the Nets won 18 of 20 games, but then Durant went down with a knee injury. Irving was reportedly unhappy with the team’s contract extension offer in early February and requested — and was granted — a trade. Durant then quietly requested his own trade to Phoenix, and was sent to the Suns on February 9.

Marks did the best he could to recoup value for the now-departed star trio, but the championship window certainly appears to be closed in the short term. That led some to wonder whether his job might be in jeopardy, according to Lewis.

However, one source tells Lewis that “ownership has full confidence” in Marks and the rest of the front office’s ability, while another tells Lewis that Marks and owner Joe Tsai are “in lockstep.”

As Lewis notes, the Nets decided to give Vaughn a multiyear contract extension after the trade deadline, with Marks quoted in the press release. That signaled that he might remain the club’s lead decision-maker for the basketball operations department.

A former NBA player, Marks has been GM of the Nets since February 2016.

Lewis writes that “Marks’ current contractual status is unclear.” A report (subscriber link) last summer from Kristian Winfield of The New York Daily News indicated that Marks had signed a contract extension, but both Lewis and Alex Schiffer of The Athletic (Twitter links) heard differently.

NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots

March 8th, 2023 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

It has been nearly a month since the NBA’s trade deadline passed, and the post-deadline transaction wire continues to be pretty busy, with teams that opened up roster spots at or since the deadline still working to fill them.

Clubs are also making plenty of roster moves with their players on two-way contracts, opening up two-way slots by either promoting those players to standard deals or by cutting them to take a flier on another prospect.

It has been a few weeks since we last checked in on which teams have open roster spots, so it’s worth taking a closer look at that today. If a team isn’t listed below, you can assume it has a full 17-man roster made up of 15 players on full-season standard contracts and a pair on two-way deals.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

Let’s dive in…

Teams with an open 15-man roster spot:

Boston Celtics
Charlotte Hornets
Houston Rockets *
Los Angeles Lakers
New York Knicks *
Utah Jazz ^

* These teams have one open roster spot and one filled by a 10-day contract.
^ This team has two open roster spots and one filled by a 10-day contract.

The Celtics, Hornets, and Lakers have pretty straightforward roster situations — they’re carrying 14 players on standard, rest-of-season contracts, with open spot left to fill. The Celtics and Lakers may be more inclined to fill their openings with a veteran who could provide depth in the postseason if necessary. The Hornets, if they don’t re-sign restricted free agent Miles Bridges this season, will likely add a younger prospect on a team-friendly multiyear deal.

The Rockets and Knicks each have one open spot on their standard 15-man roster and are also carrying a player on a 10-day deal — Willie Cauley-Stein for Houston and DaQuan Jeffries for New York. Both players will be eligible for second 10-day contracts when their current pacts expire. If the Rockets and/or Knicks want to go in another direction, they’d have up to two weeks to sign a 14th man.

As for the Jazz, they’re only carrying 13 players on their standard roster and one of those players (Kris Dunn) is on his second 10-day contract with the club. Even if Utah intends to sign Dunn to a rest-of-season deal when his current contract is up, the team will need to make another signing before next weekend to adhere to the NBA’s minimum roster requirements.

Teams with full 15-man rosters that include a 10-day contract:

Brooklyn Nets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards

The Nets (Nerlens Noel), Cavaliers (Sam Merrill), Pistons (Eugene Omoruyi), Warriors (Lester Quinones), Bucks (Meyers Leonard), and Wizards (Jamaree Bouyea) all have a player on a 10-day contract occupying their 15th roster spot, so they could easily open up a roster spot if need be.

Of those players, only Leonard is on his second 10-day deal with the same team, so the others could all be re-signed for another 10 days. The Wizards, however, are reportedly set to sign NBL standout Xavier Cooks to fill the spot currently occupied by Bouyea.

Teams with an open two-way contract slot:

Charlotte Hornets
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns

The Hornets (Bryce McGowens), Knicks (Jeffries), Magic (Admiral Schofield), and Suns (Ish Wainright) have all promoted two-way players to their standard roster since the trade deadline and have yet to fill those two-way openings.

Orlando’s G League affiliate, the Lakeland Magic, is fighting for an NBAGL spot, so there’s some incentive to fill that two-way opening sooner rather than later. Conversely, there’s probably not much urgency for Phoenix to sign another player to a two-way contract, since the Suns don’t have a G League affiliate of their own and two-way players won’t be eligible for the NBA postseason.

Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise if all four of these spots are filled in the coming weeks.

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

March 7th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:

Picks that will be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.

New York Notes: Knicks, Quickley, Noel, Nets

March 7th, 2023 at 11:42am CST by Luke Adams

Two years ago, the Knicks followed up a successful, expectation-defying regular season with a quick playoff exit, as they fell in five games to Atlanta. This year’s team, which has also gotten hot after a shaky start, bears some similarities to that 2020/21 squad. However, forward Julius Randle is higher on the current Knicks’ ceiling.

“I think we’re a better team,” Randle said, per Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. “More talented team.”

As Bondy points out, the ’20/21 version of the Knicks rode the NBA’s fourth-best defense to a 41-31 season, but ranked just 22nd on offense. This year’s club is more balanced, ranking in the top half of the league in both offense and defense and posting the NBA’s seventh-best net rating to date. While it remains to be seen whether that balance will translate to postseason success, RJ Barrett believes the team will be better prepared for the playoffs than it was in 2021.

“Looking back and thinking back about that series (vs. Atlanta), there are things we could have done better,” Barrett said. “Experience now will help us as well. Hopefully when we get there. So that was a good series for us to know what to expect.”

Here’s more on the NBA’s two New York teams:

Immanuel Quickley‘s breakout season has strengthened his case for a rookie scale extension during the 2023 offseason, writes Zach Braziller of The New York Post. In an effort to gauge Quickley’s value, Braziller spoke to ESPN cap expert Bobby Marks, who speculated that a deal in the range of De’Andre Hunter‘s extension with Atlanta (four years, $90MM, plus $5MM in incentives) might be about right for the Knicks guard. On the other hand, holding off on a new deal for Quickley would put the team in position to maximize its 2024 cap room. “I think the next month-and-a-half and the playoffs will determine if the value of an extension outweighs prioritizing cap space,” Marks told Braziller.
Oddsmakers have made Quickley the new frontrunner to win the Sixth Man of the Year award this season, moving him ahead of Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon, notes Cole Huff of The Athletic.
After signing a 10-day contract, Nerlens Noel said he’ll bring “energy” to the Nets and that he’s willing to play whatever role head coach Jacque Vaughn asks of him. “This is already a top-10 defense, I’m pretty sure, especially with what they have, so I’m going to put it over the top,” Noel said, per Brian Lewis of The New York Post (Twitter links). “And however coach sees fit into what position he wants to put me in, I’ll accept regardless.”
In a normal season, Vaughn would wait until near the end of the season to start to ramp up his starters’ minutes in preparation for the playoffs, but he’s doing it a bit earlier this year to try to give his newcomers more time together, as Andrew Crane of The New York Post relays. Mikal Bridges, for instance, has played over 40 minutes in each of Brooklyn’s last two games. “In the past … we’ve played our guys not as many minutes, and then as the playoffs start to come around, we wanted to ramp those guys up so they can play, quote-unquote, playoff minutes,” Vaughn explained. “I’m trying to hedge that a little bit with the short time between regular season and this group being together and playoffs.”

Nets Sign Nerlens Noel To 10-Day Contract

March 6th, 2023 at 9:32am CST by Luke Adams

MARCH 6, 9:32am: Noel’s signing is official, the Nets announced (via Twitter).

MARCH 4, 9:38am: Noel is expected to receive a 10-day contract from the Nets, Wojnarowski writes in his full story on the agreement.

Brooklyn may wait until Sunday to officially complete the signing to ensure that Noel is available for the team’s next six games instead of five. Noel would earn $151,821 on a 10-day deal, with $105,522 counting against the Nets’ cap.

MARCH 4, 7:18am: Veteran center Nerlens Noel has reached an agreement to sign with the Nets, agent George Langberg tells ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

Brooklyn has had an open spot on its 15-man roster since the trade deadline, so no corresponding move will be needed to create an opening for Noel, who became a free agent on Wednesday after clearing waivers. He finalized a buyout agreement with the Pistons earlier in the week.

The sixth overall pick in the 2013 draft, Noel has established a reputation as a talented, versatile defender with a limited offensive game.

After beginning his career with the Sixers, Mavericks, and Thunder, Noel thrived in New York in 2020/21, averaging 6.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in just 24.2 minutes per game for the league’s fourth-best defense. That performance helped earn him a three-year, $28MM contract from the Knicks, but he was slowed by injuries in ’21/22, appearing in just 25 games.

The Knicks sent Noel to Detroit in a salary-dump trade last offseason and he played sparingly for his new team as the Pistons evaluated younger players. Before agreeing to a buyout, the 28-year-old only appeared in 14 contests, averaging 2.3 PPG and 2.6 RPG in 10.9 MPG.

The Nets have been on the lookout for months for a reliable frontcourt player to back up starting center Nic Claxton — Noel is as good as an option as they’ll find on the buyout market.

Following last month’s trades of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn no longer looks like a team with championship potential, but the club remains firmly in the playoff race and still appears invested in upgrading this year’s roster. The Nets’ 35-28 record currently gives them a 2.5-game lead over Atlanta for the sixth seed in the East.

Brooklyn still has a portion of its mid-level exception available, but a rest-of-season, minimum-salary contract is probably the likeliest outcome for Noel. If he were to officially sign a minimum deal on Saturday, the big man would earn about $562K, while the Nets would take on a cap hit of approximately $390K.

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