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Free Agent Stock Watch: Pacific Division

March 17th, 2023 at 2:57pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Pacific players.

Austin Reaves, G/F, Lakers

2022/23: $1.56MM
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

After going undrafted out of Oklahoma in 2021, Reaves initially caught on with the Lakers on a two-way deal, but received a promotion to a standard contract before his rookie season started. He was one of the bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season in Los Angeles, averaging 7.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.8 APG on .459/.317/.839 shooting (.600 true shooting percentage) in 61 games (23.2 MPG).

He has been even better in year two – you could easily make the case that he’s been the Lakers’ third-best player in 2022/23. Through 52 games (27.6 MPG), he’s averaging 11.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on an elite .511/.385/.860 shooting line (.667 TS%).

The 24-year-old has a really nice pump fake-and-drive game, which he uses to throw defenders off balance and draw fouls – he’s averaging 3.4 free throw attempts per night, which is quite high considering his usage rate is only 14.7%. Reaves has a feathery soft touch when throwing lobs, has good chemistry with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and has drastically improved defensively in his second season.

Reaves will be a restricted free agent in the offseason. The Lakers were only able to give him a two-year rookie contract after using most of their taxpayer mid-level exception on Kendrick Nunn a couple years ago, so they will hold his Early Bird rights, with a maximum offer of $50.77MM over four years.

Could he get a higher offer than that in free agency? Quite possibly. Rival suitors who want to pry him away would be subject to the Arenas provision, which limits the amount they can offer in years one and two but allows them to include big bump in salary in years three and four. Unless it’s a crazy overpay, I would expect the Lakers to match.

Lonnie Walker IV, G/F, Lakers

2022/23: $6.48MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Walker opened the season as a starter in his first year in Los Angeles, averaging 14.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.4 APG on .455/.384/.875 shooting (.578 TS%) in 32 games (29.8 MPG). Left knee tendinitis sidelined him for 14 consecutive games from late December to late January.

Walker has not started a game since he returned and has averaged just 15.5 MPG in 19 games, recording 8.2 PPG and 1.5 RPG on .417/.292/.867 shooting (.534 TS%). He has received a couple healthy scratches in that span.

Still just 24 years old, Walker is an explosive athlete but he’s just an OK shooter and doesn’t provide much in terms of rebounding, passing or defense. When he’s been on the court, he has a minus-7.2 net rating, the worst among the team’s rotation regulars. When he’s off, the Lakers are plus-3.3.

I’d be pretty surprised if he receives a starting salary at the taxpayer mid-level exception again next season.

Donte DiVincenzo, G, Warriors

2022/23: $4.5MM
2023/24: $4.73MM player option
Stock: Up

I was very surprised at how relatively little money DiVincenzo received in his first free agency foray last summer. I know he was coming off a down season in ’21/22 following left ankle surgery and had particularly struggled with his shot – he posted a .351/.339/.843 shooting line in 42 combined games (24.0 MPG) with Milwaukee and Sacramento (.510 TS%).

Still, he started to play better as the year went on, and he was still solid in other areas (4.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.1 SPG). The Kings initially gave him a qualifying offer and then pulled it, with the former No. 17 overall pick receiving part of the taxpayer mid-level from Golden State – he’s actually making less this season than he did in the final year of his rookie contract.

The 26-year-old has certainly earned a raise. He has been invaluable to the Warriors, averaging 9.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.3 SPG in 60 games (25 starts, 26.6 MPG).

On top of being a strong defensive player, DiVincenzo has a high basketball IQ, hustles, and is shooting a career-high 40.4% from three-point range to go along with a rock solid 58.8 TS%. The Warriors only have his Non-Bird rights, so it will be very difficult to bring him back unless he really loves playing for them and is willing to accept a team-friendly deal.

Alex Len, C, Kings

2022/23: $3.92MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Len signed a two-year, $7.65MM contract with the Kings as a free agent in 2021. He didn’t play all that well last season, averaging 6.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG while shooting 53.4% from the floor and 65.1% from the line in 39 games (15.9 MPG).

He has barely played at all in ’22/23, appearing in 17 games for a total of 53 minutes. He is the definition of being buried on the depth chart.

It’s hard to see the former No. 5 overall pick getting anything more than the veteran’s minimum as a free agent this summer, assuming he finds a team.

Josh Okogie, G/F, Suns

2022/23: $1.84MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Okogie spent his first four seasons with Minnesota, the team that drafted him 20th overall in 2018. They let him walk after his rookie deal expired, and the 24-year-old was only able to find a veteran’s minimum deal with Phoenix.

The primary reason for that modest deal was Okogie’s limited offensive production. He averaged 6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .403/.275/.758 shooting (.521 TS%) in 244 games (20.6 MPG) with the Wolves.

His stats this season in Phoenix – 7.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 0.8 SPG on .399/.329/.728 shooting (53.5 TS%) in 60 games (17.6 MPG) – aren’t all that different. So why is his stock up?

Since the start of the new year, Okogie is averaging 10.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .398/.369/.725 shooting (.547 TS%) in 28 games (24.1 MPG). He has been even better over the past 14 contests, of which he’s started 13 straight (32.4 MPG), averaging 14.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.6 SPG on .423/.378/.780 shooting (.580 TS%).

Okogie is a ferocious offensive rebounder and pound-for-pound one of the best athletes in the NBA, which enables him to switch across multiple positions. He is an outstanding defender.

The Nigerian swingman brings a relentless energy and physicality every time he steps on the court, which complements a team that relies heavily on jump shots. I don’t have a good feel for how much he might get on his next contract, but he’s certainly trending in a positive direction.

No Plans To Add Big Man With Open Roster Spot For Now

March 16th, 2023 at 12:47pm CST by Rory Maher

The Lakers have an open roster spot and a couple of frontcourt players injured in LeBron James and Mohamed Bamba, plus Anthony Davis has been rested on back-to-backs (only one more back-to-back remains on the schedule). Prior to Wednesday’s loss to Houston, in which Davis was out, Kyle Goon of The Southern California News Group asked head coach Darvin Ham if the Lakers had any plans to add another big man with their roster opening. “We feel like we have a good vibe, a good rhythm with the guys that are out there. We’re standing pat for now,” Ham said as part of larger quote. “But the process of trying to improve our roster never changes. We’re constantly looking.”

Lakers Notes: LeBron, Russell, Reaves, Beasley, Bamba, Irving

March 16th, 2023 at 9:08am CST by Arthur Hill

LeBron James likely won’t be back until the final week of the regular season if he returns at all before the playoffs, Jovan Buha of The Athletic said during a discussion about the team with Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. James missed his ninth straight game with a right foot injury Wednesday night, but there have been some positive signs regarding his recovery.

Buha notes that James was able to shed his walking boot this week and was seen dribbling the ball and shooting layups during Tuesday’s shootaround. The Lakers have been cautious about releasing information on James, but Buha hears he’s ahead of schedule and will be reevaluated next week.

There’s more on the Lakers:

Buha and Scotto believe D’Angelo Russell and the team have mutual interest in a new contract this summer. The Lakers brought back their former draft pick in a trade last month, and he has been productive apart from injury, averaging 18.8 points and 5.9 assists in the eight games he has played for L.A. The Lakers could have received Mike Conley from the Jazz in the trade, according to Buha, but they opted for Russell because they see him as part of their future. Scotto believes Russell is motivated to succeed with the team that drafted him.
The Lakers are hoping to re-sign Austin Reaves, but multiple teams are planning to make a run at him in free agency, Scotto states. L.A. can offer up to $50MM over four years, and Scotto believes his floor will be the mid-level exception. Buha points out that Reaves’ flexibility has been extremely valuable for the Lakers, noting that he has played everywhere from point guard to small forward and brings a high IQ to the game. He adds that the team has to be careful about getting into a situation similar what it did with Alex Caruso, adding that another team might be willing to offer Reaves $12-15MM per season. The Lakers would have the ability to match a higher offer via the Arenas provision.
Another free agent, Rui Hachimura, is also likely to get offers in the non-taxpayer MLE range, which will be about $10MM per year, according to Buha. He believes the Lakers are willing to make that offer, but another team may be able to outbid them.
General manager Rob Pelinka had been interested in Malik Beasley for some time before acquiring him, so the team is likely to pick up his $16.5MM option for next season, Scotto states. Mohamed Bamba, who has a $10.3MM team option, is more “on the bubble,” Scotto adds, because the Lakers can probably find a more affordable backup center.
The Lakers were strongly interested in Kyrie Irving when he asked the Nets for a trade in February, but that seems to have changed in light of their moves at the deadline, Buha adds. He hears that the front office likes the current look of the team and doesn’t plan to pursue Irving in free agency.

Pacific Notes: Davis, Crowder, Westbrook, Mann, Clippers

March 15th, 2023 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

Lakers star Anthony Davis led the team to a huge victory in New Orleans on Tuesday, piling up 35 points and 17 rebounds against his old club. However, the Lakers still aren’t comfortable having Davis play in both ends of back-to-back sets, so he’ll be held out of action on Wednesday in Houston, as Dave McMenamin of ESPN relays.

“He’s not going to play,” head coach Darvin Ham said. “He hasn’t been cleared. Even though he’s been playing pain-free, we made an organizational decision, starting with our team doctors, to hold him out of back-to-backs.”

According to McMenamin, Davis – who missed 20 games earlier in the season due a stress reaction and bone spur in his right foot – was reevaluated about two weeks ago, at which time the foot hadn’t shown significant healing. Lakers medical personnel has recommended holding him out of back-to-backs to reduce the risk of a setback.

“It’s just one of those things where even though he’s playing pain-free, it’s still an active injury,” Ham said. “So we have to monitor it and stick to the plan, as we always have done. And just go out there with our other guys and try to get a W and finish the trip the right way.”

While the Lakers are still favored to beat Houston even without Davis and LeBron James available, they certainly can’t take the game for granted in the midst of a competitive playoff race, especially given that the Rockets are coming off a Monday victory over Boston.

Here’s more from around the Pacific:

Bucks forward Jae Crowder derived some satisfaction from defeating his old team in Phoenix on Tuesday and was pleased with the reception he got from the Suns faithful, who gave him a resounding ovation in his first game back in the city. “Things ended in a bad way, on a bad note,” Crowder said after Milwaukee’s win, per Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. “I appreciate the love and I appreciate the applause I got.”
Russell Westbrook‘s arrival has resulted in a role reduction for Clippers guard Terance Mann, but there’s no animosity between the two players, who have become friends in recent weeks, according to Janis Carr of The Orange County Register. “It’s been amazing to be on a team with Russell Westbrook,” Mann said. “I’ve been a big fan of his since he’s been in the NBA. Last night, we were joking, he’s in Year 15 or something, and he’s 34. I was like, ‘Man, you look 23. You look younger than me.’ It’s crazy. So just being able to watch him lead and be great is cool.”
With the Clippers‘ championship window starting to shrink in year four of the Kawhi Leonard/Paul George partnership, there’s an increased sense of urgency and a feeling that the stakes are higher as the playoffs near, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN writes within a closer look at where things stand for the franchise.

Russell Wants To Remain With Lakers

March 14th, 2023 at 10:47pm CST by Dana Gauruder

D’Angelo Russell is hopeful of re-signing with the Lakers this offseason when he hits free agency, Jacob Rude of SilverScreenAndRoll.com relays. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said at halftime of the Knicks-Lakers game on Sunday night that Russell wants to extend his second stint with the franchise. “D’Angelo Russell very much wanted a second chance in LA with the Lakers and you’ve seen the impact he made coming back against Toronto the other night, playing great in a win, and again (Sunday). He wants to be the point guard of the future for this organization.”

Injury Notes: Nance, Mitchell, Kuzma, LeBron, Suns

March 14th, 2023 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

After missing six games due to a left ankle sprain, Pelicans forward Larry Nance Jr. returned to action on Sunday vs. Portland. However, Nance logged just eight minutes and acknowledged after the game that he isn’t at full strength yet.

“I think it was pretty clear that I’m not 100%,” Nance said, per Christian Clark of NOLA.com. “For me, it’s more about if I can play, you’re going to get what I got at all times. We got a win. I did my job.”

Even though Nance – who has averaged 22.0 minutes per game off the bench this season – couldn’t reclaim his usual rotation role in his first game back, head coach Willie Green appreciates the 30-year-old’s willingness to play through pain with New Orleans in the thick of a playoff race.

“Larry is a leader,” Green said. “He wants to be out there on the floor. He has been talking about it the last three, four days. These guys understand that coming down the stretch, it’s going to be a tight race for the playoffs. He’s trying to get himself ready for the last 14 games. It was huge to have him on the floor. His presence was felt.”

Nance isn’t on the Pelicans’ injury report for Tuesday’s game against the Lakers, so he’ll be available for that one, even if his minutes are once again limited.

Here are a few more injury notes from around the NBA:

The Cavaliers have ruled out Donovan Mitchell (finger sprain injury management) for Tuesday’s contest vs. Charlotte, tweets Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Starting center Jarrett Allen (right eye contusion) is also unavailable for a second straight game.
Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma has been ruled out for Tuesday’s game against Detroit due to a sore right knee, tweets Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Washington is currently a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 10 spot in the East.
Lakers star LeBron James, who is making his way back from a right foot injury, did his first on-court activity at a Tuesday shootaround, taking a few free throws after he completed his weight lifting and rehab work, according to Dave McMenamin of ESPN (Twitter links).
Suns head coach Monty Williams called it a “good sign” that GM James Jones said Kevin Durant would probably be available now if the playoffs had begun. “With those kind of injuries, you tend to get better every day, and he’s getting around-the-clock treatment,” Williams said of KD (link via Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic). The Suns’ coach added that Landry Shamet‘s return from a right foot injury isn’t imminent: “He’s just been getting up shots. He’s about the same. He’s just getting more treatment. Just trying to figure it out. How can we get back to a place he can get back to a full practice and then progress from there.”

LeBron James Shed Walking Boot

March 13th, 2023 at 10:24pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Lakers star LeBron James has shed the protective boot on his right foot, according to Kyle Goon of the Orange Country Register. It’s a sign of progress for James, who suffered a tendon injury on Feb. 26. It’s also an indication that James could return to action before the end of the season, assuming the Lakers remain in the postseason race.

“Everything is going according to plan,” Lakers coach Darvin Ham said.

A loss to the Knicks on Sunday prevented the Lakers from reaching the .500 mark for the first time this season. Ham said time is running out in their postseason push, Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times relays. “We have time, but we can’t waste any more time,” Ham said. “We can’t waste any more games.”

Davis Shows Why He's "Smart Player"

March 12th, 2023 at 8:39pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Lakers have a chance to reach the .500 mark with a win over the Knicks on Sunday night and excitement within the organization is building, Kyle Goon of the Orange County Register writes.

The Lakers have won seven of their last nine games despite the absence of LeBron James. They beat Toronto on Friday even though Anthony Davis was held to eight points.

Davis averaged 33 points in his previous five games but when the Raptors overloaded to him, the upgraded Lakers roster took advantage, Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times notes. That’s the sign of a “smart basketball player,” according to coach Darvin Ham. “He understands what’s working, what’s not working, what’s being given and what’s being taken away. And the way he’s been playing, teams are perked up,” Ham said. “They’re on high, extra alert towards him and his capabilities and what he’s been doing. So, they’re going to put one, two, three guys around him at all times. … And the way he’s able to navigate all of that and accept what the defense is doing and look for other options… And now, we have a plethora of other options we can go to.”

Lakers Have Best Defense In NBA Since Trade Deadline, With Vanderbilt & AD Shining

March 11th, 2023 at 2:30pm CST by Rory Maher

Entering Friday’s victory over Toronto, the Lakers held the NBA’s top defensive rating since the trade deadline, according to Kyle Goon of The Southern California News Group. While Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown and Austin Reaves have been solid perimeter contributors on defense, Goon points out that the tandem of Jarred Vanderbilt and Anthony Davis has been particularly effective, with excellent defensive numbers when they’re paired together. “Him being able to communicate but also to be able to react, that’s what makes him so unique,” Vanderbilt said. “He can do both. He can talk and he can react, too. For me being on the perimeter, having a guy like A.D. behind me, I can be a lot more aggressive, knowing that I have a second line of defense.” The Lakers have gone 8-3 since they reshaped their roster.

Projected NBA Taxpayers For 2022/23

March 11th, 2023 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

NBA teams established a new record for luxury tax penalties during the 2021/22 season, as seven clubs paid total tax payments exceeding $481MM, blowing away the previous single-year record of approximately $173MM. A year later, that record is on track to be shattered once again.

According to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom, the nine teams that are currently over the luxury tax line are on track to pay more than $625MM in total tax penalties.

Even after the trade deadline has passed, projected tax bills remain fluid due to possible roster moves, suspensions, incentives, and a handful of other factors. For instance, the Nets‘ projected tax bill increased when they signed Nerlens Noel to a 10-day contract earlier this week, and it’ll climb even further if they bring back Noel on a second 10-day pact or a rest-of-season deal.

Still, the current numbers will likely end up being pretty close to the final numbers, and they’re already pretty staggering. As Pincus outlines, here are the current penalties for this season’s taxpayers:

Golden State Warriors: $168.9MM
Los Angeles Clippers: $140.3MM
Milwaukee Bucks: $79.5MM
Boston Celtics: $65.3MM
Dallas Mavericks: $56.2MM
Phoenix Suns: $53.4MM
Los Angeles Lakers: $35.9MM
Denver Nuggets: $14.2MM
Brooklyn Nets: $11.8MM

As significant as the Warriors’ projected tax bill is, it still falls a little shy of the $170MM+ they paid last season en route to a championship. The Clippers’ and Bucks’ penalties will be substantially higher than they were a year ago though, and teams like the Celtics, Mavericks, and Suns will be on the hook for sizable bills after finishing last season out of the tax entirely.

It’s worth noting that the Nets, who paid a bill of nearly $98MM in 2022, were headed for a nine-figure penalty this year before last month’s Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades, so their new projection looks pretty good by comparison.

According to Pincus, the NBA’s 21 non-taxpayers are presently on track to receive payments worth about $14.9MM, since 50% of the penalties in a given league year are redistributed to the teams that finished out of the tax.

The shares for non-taxpayers would have been higher, but the Sixers joined that club by sneaking under the tax line at the trade deadline, while teams that were dangerously close to that threshold – like the Hawks, Trail Blazers, and Heat – created some extra breathing room with their pre-deadline deals.

The luxury tax system is expected to be modified in the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, so it will be interesting to see whether the record set this season for total tax payments ends up standing for a while.