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2021 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

June 22nd, 2021 at 8:26am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Clippers and Suns. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of five prospects widely considered to be a level above the rest of the class. Cade Cunningham leads the way, followed in some order by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2021 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four (47.9% chance).
  2. Detroit Pistons
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
    • Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three (27.6% chance).
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (20.3% chance).
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Pistons, and Magic have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Thunder (45.1%), Cavaliers (45.1%), Timberwolves (37.2%), and Raptors (31.9%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades have the potential to shake up Tuesday’s lottery results in a significant way, potentially altering the course of multiple franchises. Here are the details on those deals:

Rockets/Thunder

The Thunder have the ability to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for the Rockets‘ first-rounder, but only if Houston’ selection lands outside the top four.

Since Oklahoma City’s own pick is also a lottery selection, there are essentially just two scenarios in play here:

  1. The Rockets’ pick lands in the top four and Houston keeps it. The Thunder would keep their own pick, along with the Heat’s pick at No. 18 (52.1% chance).
  2. The Rockets’ pick lands at No. 5 and the Thunder swap the No. 18 pick for it (47.9% chance).

The Thunder’s ability to swap picks with the Rockets won’t carry over to next season if Houston’s pick is protected.

Timberwolves/Warriors

The Timberwolves owe the Warriors their top-three protected first-round pick, so Golden State will receive the pick if it lands at No. 4 or lower. Technically, it can’t end up at No. 5, but 1-4 and 6-10 are all possibilities.

There’s a 27.6% chance this pick lands in the top three and remains with Minnesota, with a 72.4% chance Golden State gets it. It has a 9.6% chance of moving up to No. 4, and a 62.8% chance of ending up between 6-10. No. 7 (29.7%) or No. 8 (20.6%) are the most likely outcomes.

If the Wolves’ pick lands in the top three and is protected, they’d owe the Warriors their unprotected first-round pick in 2022.

Bulls/Magic

The Bulls owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. It can’t land between 5-7, but Orlando will get it if it ends up in the 8-12 range.

There’s a 20.3% chance the pick will move into the top four, allowing Chicago to keep it, with a 79.7% chance Orlando gets it. No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (36.2%) are, by far, the most likely outcomes.

If the Bulls’ pick lands in the top four and is protected, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-round pick in 2022.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-camera representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (former player)
  2. Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (former player)
  3. Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Nazr Mohammed (OKC Blue general manager / Thunder pro scout)
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Koby Altman (general manager)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
  7. Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
  8. Chicago Bulls: Marc Eversley (general manager)
  9. Sacramento Kings: Monte McNair (general manager)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Swin Cash (VP of basketball operations and team development)
  11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges
  12. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (managing partner)
  13. Indiana Pacers: Nancy Leonard (former Pacers executive / widow of Hall-of-Famer Slick Leonard)
  14. Golden State Warriors: Rick Welts (president / COO)

Lottery Format:

This will be the third year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results in the last two years have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. If those seventh and eighth lottery seeds get lucky again this year, it’d be great news for Toronto and Chicago.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Southeast Notes: Van Gundy, Ball, Battier, Heat Offseason, Wizards

June 19th, 2021 at 2:42pm CST by Eli Cohen

Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel explains makes a case for why Stan Van Gundy , who was fired after a single year on the job with the Pelicans, should be in the running for the Magic’s head coach job. Orlando is one of seven teams this summer with an open head coach position, and though they’ve expressed a desire to cast a wide net in their search, Parry writes that the Magic, given their defensive personnel, could be primed for a reunion with the defensive-minded coach.

We have more from around the Southeast Division:

  • Winning Rookie of the Year has only left Hornets‘ guard LaMelo Ball hungrier coming into next season, writes The Charlotte Observer’s Jonathan Alexander. The young guard missed 21 games with a fractured wrist in the beginning of the season and struggled at times upon returning, but put together a very encouraging rookie year. “Definitely next season I want to come in with this little boost and pretty much looking forward to next season now,” Ball said. “That’s what we’re all working out for. That’s what we’re all here for. Pretty much just trying to get better every day.”
  • Former Heat forward Shane Battier has left his job as the head of the team’s player development and analytics department, but plans to continue to consult for president Pat Riley and the Heat, reports Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson. The decision was entirely up to Battier, who had previously been considered a candidate for promotion should Riley retire. That now that possibility seems a little less likely, Jackson writes.
  • Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald examines whether it makes more sense for the Heat to operate as an above-the-cap team or a cap room team, concluding that operating over the cap likely makes more sense as it would allow the team to re-sign players like Victor Oladipo and Trevor Ariza with Bird Rights, and to decline the options for Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala and bring them back on new, cheaper deals.
  • The Wizards need to be better, and that starts with the front office, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. With the Wizards choosing to not renew Scott Brooks‘ contract, they are also grappling with the fact that turning around the franchise is going to come down to more than a new coaching hire. “The days of one coach being the solution to every single problem a team has are over,” said GM Tommy Sheppard.
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Draft Notes: Pistons, Timberwolves, Banton, Hornets

June 19th, 2021 at 11:58am CST by Dana Gauruder

Pittsburgh’s Justin Champagnie, Toledo’s Spencer Littleson, UC Santa Barbara’s Jaquori McLaughlin and Florida State’s M.J. Walker are among the players the Pistons worked out on Friday, Keith Smith tweets. The 6’6” Champagnie is ranked No. 63 among all prospects and 10th among small forwards by ESPN. The G League Ignite’s Daishen Nix also participated in the workout. Nix is ranked by No. 55 by ESPN and 10th among point guard prospects.

We have more draft-related news:

  • McLaughlin, ranked No. 93 by ESPN, also worked out recently for the Timberwolves, Darren Wolfson of KSTP tweets. The 6’4” McLaughlin was the Big West’s Conference Player of the Year. Ohio State guard Duane Washington Jr. also visited the Timberwolves, Wolfson adds in a separate tweet. Washington is participating in the G League Elite Camp in Chicago this weekend.
  • Nebraska guard Dalano Banton also received an invite to the Elite Camp, Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated tweets. Blanton averaged 9.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 3.9 APG last season.
  • The Hornets hosted several prospects on Thursday, including North Carolina’s Armando Bacot, Dayton’s Jalen Crutcher, Winthrop’s Chandler Vaudrin, Tennessee’s Yves Pons and Washington’s Nahziah Carter, according to Matthew Stephens of the Charlotte Observer. Pons, a small forward, is ranked No. 88.
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Ball, Edwards, Haliburton Head All-Rookie Team

June 17th, 2021 at 7:28pm CST by Dana Gauruder

LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Jae’Sean Tate and Saddiq Bey comprised this year’s All-Rookie First Team, the NBA announced on Thursday in a press release.

Ball, who was named Rookie of the Year on Thursday, led first-year NBA players in assists (6.1 APG) and steals (1.59 SPG) and ranked second in scoring (15.7 PPG) and rebounding (5.9 RPG) for the Hornets. Edwards, the No. 1 pick in the draft by the Timberwolves, averaged a rookie-high 19.3 PPG.

The Kings’ Haliburton ranked third among rookies in scoring (13.0 PPG) and second in assists (5.3 APG). Bey, the 19th overall pick, made a rookie-high 175 three-pointers for the Pistons. Tate, who went undrafted in 2018 and played in Australia last season, averaged 11.3 PPG and 5.3 PPG for the Rockets.

Ball and Edwards were the only unanimous First Team selections, receiving 99 of 99 potential First Team votes. Haliburton got 98, while Bey had 63 and Tate received 57.

Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley narrowly missed out on the top five, having earned 51 votes for the First Team.

Here are both All-Rookie teams in full, with their voting point totals notes in parentheses. Players received two points for a First Team vote and one point for a Second Team vote.

2020/21 All-Rookie First Team:

2020/21 All-Rookie Second Team:

Nuggets guard Facundo Campazzo (42), Magic guard Cole Anthony (40), and Warriors center James Wiseman (24) were among the players who just missed the cut. Nine other players received votes — you can view the full voting results right here.

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Draft Notes: Mamukelashvili, Carr, Champagnie, Figueroa, Cockburn, Sims

June 16th, 2021 at 9:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Seton Hall’s Sandro Mamukelashvili is scheduled to work out for the Pistons on Thursday, Adam Zagoria of the New York Times tweets. The 6’11” Mamukelashvili already worked out for the Jazz, Thunder and Hornets. He’s currently listed as the No. 56 overall prospect on ESPN’s Best Available list.

We have more news and insights on this year’s draft:

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LaMelo Ball Named NBA Rookie Of The Year

June 16th, 2021 at 6:55pm CST by Luke Adams

6:55pm: Ball’s victory has been confirmed by the NBA in a press release. He received 84 of 99 first-place votes, with the others going to Edwards.

Overall, Ball had 465 points, while Edwards was second with 309. Haliburton was third with 114 points. The Pistons’ Saddiq Bey was the only other player to receive votes, garnering three third-place selections.

1:53pm: Hornets guard LaMelo Ball has won the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award for the 2020/21 season, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). According to Wojnarowski, an official announcement from the league is expected soon.

Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards and Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton were the other finalists for the award. I’d expect Edwards to finish second in the voting, with Haliburton coming in third, but we’ll have to wait for the official breakdown from the NBA.

The third overall pick in the 2020 draft, Ball had a breakthrough rookie year in Charlotte, averaging 15.7 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.9 rebounds per games in 51 contests (28.8 MPG). There were questions about the 19-year-old’s jump shot entering his first professional season, but Ball put up a respectable shooting line of .436/.352/.758, emerging as the Hornets’ starting point guard despite the presence of veterans Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham.

A fractured right wrist sidelined Ball for over a month in March and April, but he returned to the court down the stretch to help the Hornets clinch a spot in the play-in tournament. The club was bounced in the first game by Indiana, but Ball’s performance in 2020/21 bodes well for the long-term future in Charlotte.

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Coaching Rumors: Magic, Bucks, Pacers, McMillan, Borrego

June 14th, 2021 at 10:02am CST by Luke Adams

Of all the active head coaching searches around the NBA, the Magic‘s appears to be the most fluid, according to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report. Kenny Atkinson, identified last week as a candidate for the job, has been the named most frequently linked to Orlando’s vacancy, says Fischer, but the search is expected to be wide-ranging.

Lakers assistant Jason Kidd has been connected more and more to the Magic’s opening, per Fischer, who notes that Kidd has a connection to Orlando general manager John Hammond — the two worked in Milwaukee together from 2014-17 after Hammond hired Kidd as the Bucks’ head coach.

Former Warriors assistant Jarron Collins has talked to the Magic, sources tell Bleacher Report. Fischer says Nets assistant Ime Udoka is another candidate league sources have “strongly linked” the Orlando job, though there’s a sense Udoka may have more interest in the Celtics‘ job. Sixers assistant Sam Cassell may also be on the Magic’s radar, according to Fischer, who says Cassell would be popular among Orlando’s returning players.

Here are several more coaching-related notes and rumors from Fischer’s latest report:

  • With the Bucks tied at 2-2 in their second-round series, Mike Budenholzer is in a better position now than he was a few days ago, but if Milwaukee falls short of the Finals, there’s an expectation the team may make a change, per Fischer. In that scenario, Bucks assistants Darvin Ham and Charles Lee could be candidates for a promotion, since the team may just want a change at the top rather than an overhaul of the entire coaching staff, Fischer notes.
  • If the Bucks make a change, Mike D’Antoni would likely have interest in the job, and Olimpia Milano coach Ettore Messina would be another name to keep an eye on, Fischer writes. Rick Carlisle could also receive interest from Milwaukee, Fischer adds, though Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has said Carlisle’s not going anywhere.
  • Among the teams seeking a new coach, the Pacers appear to be the club most focused on hiring someone with previous head coaching experience, Fischer reports. Given how badly the hire of first-time head coach Nate Bjorkgren worked out, that’s not a huge surprise.
  • All indications are that Nate McMillan will sign a new contract with the Hawks to become the team’s permanent head coach, but until that happens, he’ll likely receive interest from other teams with coaching openings, including the Celtics, says Fischer.
  • Sources tell Fischer that the Hornets and head coach James Borrego are expected to work out a contract extension this offseason.
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Southeast Notes: Biyombo, Heat, Dragic, Lowry, Ross

June 13th, 2021 at 8:03pm CST by JD Shaw

Hornets center Bismack Biyombo provided much-needed leadership and guidance to his younger teammates this season, Sam Perley of NBA.com writes.

Charlotte has a young core of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and P.J. Washington among others. Biyombo, who held per-game averages of 5.0 points and 5.3 rebounds in 20.4 minutes in his 10th NBA season, relished the role of veteran leader for the team.

“The most special part was that this was a team where nobody had an ego,” Biyombo said. “We trusted each other, supported each other. We didn’t want to hear the outside noise. When you’re around a team that doesn’t have egos, it’s easy to lead and be a voice of the team.

“People are able to listen and you can listen to other people give their opinion and be willing to understand where the other person is coming from. I think overall, we trusted and relied on each other. I think that was the most special part about this season.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division tonight:

  • Some Heat players could still have a short offseason despite being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, as Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel explores. While it won’t be nearly as brief as last offseason, it’ll be shorter than usual — the league plans to return to a normal format next season, meaning training camps will start the final week of September. Should Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo participate in the Olympics, it would reduce their time off even further.
  • In his “Ask Ira” mailbag, Winderman examines whether replacing Goran Dragic with Kyle Lowry would be enough of an upgrade for the team. Miami holds a $19.44MM team option on Dragic for next season, while Lowry is set to become an unrestricted free agent.
  • Magic veteran Terrence Ross found new ways to score this season, elevating his game to another level, Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel writes. Ross averaged a career-high 15.6 points per game, shooting 41% from the field and 34% from three-point range in 46 contests.
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Scotto’s Latest: Magic, Hartenstein, Allen, Ennis, Theis

June 10th, 2021 at 1:47pm CST by Luke Adams

Appearing on the HoopsHype podcast alongside Yossi Gozlan, Michael Scotto identified Nets assistant Ime Udoka and former Brooklyn coach Kenny Atkinson as potential candidates to watch for the Magic‘s open head coaching position.

Clippers assistant Dan Craig and Bucks assistant Darvin Ham are among the other names Scotto has heard linked to the job in Orlando. If the Bucks lose their second-round series to Brooklyn, it could be the end of the road in Milwaukee not just for Mike Budenholzer, but for several members of his staff, including Ham, Scotto notes.

Here’s more from the podcast:

  • Scotto says Cavaliers big man Isaiah Hartenstein plans to turn down his player option, after hinting as much last month. Hartenstein will be eligible for restricted free agency and is a good bet to remain in Cleveland, either on a multiyear contract or on his qualifying offer, according to Scotto.
  • Some executives around the NBA believe the Hornets and/or Mavericks could pursue Jarrett Allen, but Scotto expects the RFA center to ultimately remain with the Cavaliers, who gave up a first-round pick for him earlier this year.
  • James Ennis, who has played for seven teams since entering the NBA in 2014, will be seeking some stability as a free agent this offseason, per Scotto, who says Ennis is hoping for a deal that covers three years, or at least two. After knocking down 43.3% of his three-pointers in 2020/21, the veteran forward will be looking for a salary worth at least the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, Scotto adds.
  • Scotto has heard from people around the league that free agent center Daniel Theis could command a deal worth at least the mid-level exception. Theis would like to join a winning team, but also wants the opportunity to play regularly.
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Pacers Rumors: Turner, Budenholzer, Shaw, Bjorkgren, More

June 10th, 2021 at 11:29am CST by Luke Adams

Prior to the 2021 trade deadline, J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star reported that the Hornets, Lakers, Clippers, Knicks, and Pelicans were among the teams to express interest in Pacers big man Myles Turner. With Turner possibly available again this summer in trade talks, many of those teams could renew their interest in the NBA’s shot-blocking leader.

Exploring that possibility, Michael tweets that the Hornets and Timberwolves are the teams that seem to “really” want Turner. Michael speculates (via Twitter) that Charlotte would be the team most likely to make an aggressive trade offer for the 25-year-old if the Pacers are willing to move him.

Here’s more out of Indiana:

  • If the Bucks decide to move on from Mike Budenholzer after their season ends, he’d move to the top of the Pacers’ list of potential head coaching candidates, league sources tell J. Michael. Michael adds that G League Ignite coach Brian Shaw, formerly a Pacers assistant, is also expected to be a serious candidate for the job.
  • In a subscriber-only piece for The Indianapolis Star, Michael takes a look at the factors that led to Nate Bjorkgren‘s ouster after just one season. One league executive described Bjorkgren’s coaching style as “fake positivity,” according to Michael, who also provides details on Bjorkgren’s tendency to micro-manage and his failure to hold players accountable. Michael adds that the first-year coach “made sure those beneath him knew their place,” which lines up with a May report that stated Bjorkgren didn’t treat his assistants particularly well.
  • Although the Pacers haven’t ruled out blowing up their roster, team owner Herb Simon may be averse to that idea, according to Michael, who suggests the club seems likely to bring back Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon, and T.J. Warren.
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