Hornets forward Gordon Hayward will remain out for the play-in tournament game on Tuesday against Indiana, the team’s PR department tweets. Hayward hasn’t played since April 2 due to a right foot sprain. Cody Martin (left ankle sprain) will also miss the game.
The NBA’s 2021 play-in tournament will tip off on Tuesday night, when the No. 9 Pacers face the No. 10 Hornets in Indiana, followed by the No. 7 Celtics hosting the No. 8 Wizards in Boston.
By the end of the night, one team – either Boston or Washington – will have secured the No. 7 seed, earning a first-round date with the Nets. And one team – either Indiana or Charlotte – will be eliminated from postseason contention altogether.
The Pacers/Hornets matchup would be a little more intriguing if both teams were at full strength. Unfortunately, the Pacers will be without one of their top scorers (T.J. Warren) and are expected to be missing their defensive anchor (Myles Turner) as well. The Hornets, meanwhile, have gotten a little healthier as of late, but still don’t have their $120MM man (Gordon Hayward) available.
That doesn’t mean Indiana and Charlotte can’t play an entertaining game though. LaMelo Ball will be looking to put the finishing touches on a Rookie of the Year caliber season, while Nate Bjorkgren may be coaching for his job. Neither team will want its season to come to an end on Tuesday.
As for the headlining contest of the night, the fact that the Wizards are even involved in this game is pretty incredible. Washington started off the season with a 6-17 record and was 17-32 in early April. Since then, the team has reeled off 17 wins in 23 games, securing the No. 8 spot for the play-in tournament and looking a whole lot more dangerous as of late than the reeling Celtics.
The Celtics made the Eastern Conference Finals last season and entered the year with the aspirations of making another deep playoff run. It has been an up-and-down season in Boston though, and it has been trending down as of late. The C’s finished the season by losing nine of their last 13 games, and their only four wins in that stretch came against sub-.500 teams. With Jaylen Brown out for the season, the club will be shorthanded as it looks to secure a playoff spot.
Still, while the Wizards aren’t missing any top players, Bradley Beal continues to deal with a hamstring injury and isn’t at 100% entering the play-in tournament, as Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN writes. If the Eastern Conference’s leading scorer doesn’t look like his usual self, it may be an uphill battle for the Wizards to pick up a win in Boston.
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- The Hornets will increase the capacity of the Spectrum Center to 60% (about 12,000 fans) for the postseason, the team announced in a press release. The Hornets previously had a 25% capacity for home games, but North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has lifted gathering restrictions in the state.
Hornets forward Miles Bridges has been cleared to return from health and safety protocols and is available for Saturday’s contest against the Knicks, the team announced (Twitter link).
Bridges was initially ruled out for 10-14 days due to the protocols on May 4, but head coach James Borrego indicated earlier in the week that the forward could return by this weekend.
In his third season, Bridges, 23, was in the midst of another strong campaign, averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.1 RPG in 29.0 minutes per contest.
Having Bridges back for the final two games will be a major boost for Charlotte as the team looks to secure a favorable play-in seed. The Hornets (33-37) are currently tied with the Pacers for No. 8 and are just a half-game ahead of the 10th-seeded Wizards. Charlotte will face Washington in the regular-season finale on Sunday.
The NBA’s injury report is of particular interest this week in the regular season’s final days, as we wait to see which players may or may not be available for teams fighting for playoff positioning.
A pair of big-market superstars, LeBron James and James Harden, are said to be targeting Wednesday returns for the Lakers and Nets, respectively. James has been listed as questionable by the Lakers, while Harden is probable for Brooklyn.
Each of those teams also has another star player whose status for Wednesday’s games is up in the air. Lakers big man Anthony Davis is questionable due to left adductor tightness, while Kyrie Irving is questionable due to the facial contusion he suffered on Tuesday.
The Nets hold the No. 2 seed in the East and the Lakers are hosting a Houston team that is 5-43 since February 4, so neither club should feel a ton of urgency to push its stars back into action if they’re not quite ready.
Here are a few more injury updates from around the NBA:
- Hornets forward Miles Bridges, out since May 2 due to the NBA’s health and safety protocols, has a chance to return this weekend, head coach James Borrego said today. However, Borrego’s responses to questions about Gordon Hayward‘s foot injury made it sound as if Hayward may not be ready for the play-in tournament, says Rod Boone of SI.com (Twitter links). Hayward hasn’t played since April 2.
- The Pelicans need a win tonight in Dallas to remain in the hunt for a play-in spot, but they’ll be missing a number of key players, as Andrew Lopez of ESPN tweets. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Steven Adams all remain out, and Lonzo Ball (right thumb) will join them on the sidelines.
- Mavericks guard J.J. Redick, who left Tuesday’s game with right heel soreness, will also miss Wednesday’s game vs. New Orleans, writes Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News.
- The Celtics, who appear likely to finish the regular season at No. 7 in the East, will be without Kemba Walker (left knee) and Marcus Smart (right calf) on Wednesday in Cleveland, notes Tom Withers of The Associated Press. Jaylen Brown has already been ruled out for the season, and Robert Williams remains on the shelf as well.
For the 10th year in a row, ESPN’s Zach Lowe has named his end-of-season “Luke Walton All-Stars,” honoring overlooked rotation players and NBA journeymen who have impressed him most over the course of the year.
Nets guard Bruce Brown, Warriors forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Raptors teammates Yuta Watanabe and DeAndre’ Bembry are among the players who made Lowe’s list, which also includes a handful of interesting tidbits on some of his choices. Here are a few highlights:
- Thunder forward Kenrich Williams, who resisted signing a two-way contract multiple times earlier in his career, has enjoyed a breakout year in Oklahoma City. Sources tell Lowe that several playoff teams expressed trade interest in Williams prior to March’s deadline, but he wanted to remain in OKC, where he’s under contract for two more years (both non-guaranteed).
- Suns guard Cameron Payne told Lowe that he thought his NBA career might be over in 2020, when the Mavericks opted to sign Trey Burke over him for the summer restart after he had played well for Dallas’ G League affiliate. However, he got an opportunity shortly thereafter with Phoenix, in large part because head coach Monty Williams had gotten to know him during their time with the Thunder.
- Another former first-round pick, Hornets guard Malik Monk, was concerned about his NBA career last year as well, following his suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy, his brother Marcus Monk told Lowe. The former Kentucky standout has enjoyed a career year while trying to let go of tension about his role, Lowe writes. “Guys who have success in college think the NBA is going to go a certain way,” Marcus said. “You think you’re invincible. Malik fell victim to that. I’m proud of how he matured.”
- Before he signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Knicks last fall, Alec Burks discussed a deal with the Bulls, according to Lowe. Burks’ familiarity with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant from their time in Utah was a factor in his decision to choose New York.
- After an underwhelming stint in Denver, Isaiah Hartenstein has played well for the Cavaliers, averaging 8.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 16 games (17.9 MPG). Lowe says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hartenstein turns down his minimum-salary player option for 2021/22 to seek a new deal.
- Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer notes that Hornets guard LaMelo Ball has been grabbing at his wrist in recent games, and explores whether it should be a concern for the team. Ball recently missed 21 games after fracturing the same wrist, returning to action on May 1.
The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:
- A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
- A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.
In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.
Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.
Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.
- Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
- Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
- Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
- Malik Monk (Hornets)
Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.
Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.
Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.
- John Collins (Hawks)
- Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.
Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.
- Bruce Brown (Nets)
- Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
- Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
- Duncan Robinson (Heat)
- Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)
Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.
Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).
After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.
Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Hornets may have to finish the regular season without Miles Bridges, who is expected to miss 10-to-14 days after entering the NBA’s health and safety protocols, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic.
The 10- to 14-day timeline is normally associated with a positive COVID-19 test, although that hasn’t been confirmed. Bridges is currently in quarantine, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).
The third-year forward is having another productive season, averaging 12.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game in 29.0 minutes per night.
Charlotte is eighth in the East with a 31-33 record and trying to avoid slipping into the lower play-in game. The Hornets enter tonight one game ahead of the Pacers and a game-and-a-half in front of the Wizards.
In addition to being without Bridges, the Hornets are also missing Gordon Hayward (foot), Devonte’ Graham (knee), Cody Martin (ankle), and P.J. Washington (personal), per the team (Twitter link).
Hornets president of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak didn’t think the team had much of a chance at landing Gordon Hayward in free agency last offseason, Chris Sheridan of Basketball News reports.
While the team had the means to create enough cap room for Hayward, the Hornets were surprised that he opted out of his contract with Boston, let alone wanted to go to Charlotte. Hayward signed a four-year, $120MM contract and officially came to Charlotte via a sign-and-trade.
“I didn’t think he would opt out of that and want to leave Boston,” Kupchak said. “That doesn’t happen very often so when that was happening, even at the very end, even though we tried and we did everything we could do — and it was a good feeling that he was going to come to Charlotte — there was a big part of me that said, ‘This just doesn’t happen very often, that a player of this caliber will go to a small market.’ So I wasn’t really sure until we got his signature that he was going to come… That just kind of happened.”
A similar scenario unfolded a year earlier when the Hornets agreed with Terry Rozier on a three-year, $58MM contract and worked out a sign-and-trade with the Celtics after Kemba Walker chose Boston in free agency.
Kupchak has taken heat for overpaying for Hayward and Rozier, but he shrugs it off.
“It’s kind of hard to shake me up, you know? There might have been some criticism; I didn’t follow it that closely at the time,” Kupchak said. “But you’ve got to weigh everything: the draft, free-agent signings, trades. You really have to wait four or five years to look back on it and that’s when you know really whether you made a mistake or you didn’t make a mistake.”
Hayward was enjoying an All-Star level season (19.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 4.1 APG) before suffering a foot injury in early April. Rozier is averaging 20.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG and 4.1 APG this season.