Charlotte Hornets Rumors | Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

March 24th, 2023 at 1:30pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Wizards

2022/23: $33.8MM
2023/24: $36MM player option
Stock: Up

I think Porzingis has been the Wizards’ best player this season. You could interpret that as a backhanded compliment since they aren’t very good, but I don’t mean it to be — he’s having a career year.

Through 62 games (32.6 MPG) in 2022/23, the 27-year-old is averaging 23.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG and 1.5 BPG on .492/.375/.849 shooting. The points, assists and steals per game represent career highs, and he’s scoring more efficiently than ever, recording career bests in FG%, 2PT% (.556), free throw attempts (6.5 per game), free throws made (5.5) and true shooting percentage (.621).

Porzingis is also playing solid defense, with opponents shooting just 56% at the rim against him, per NBA.com‘s data — a strong mark. He has generally been an active deterrent, and it’s tough to shoot over someone 7’3″.

The biggest question mark surrounding Porzingis has always been his health, as he could surpass the 70-game mark for just the second time in his career this season. Maybe something in the three-year, $105MM range could be within reach – I’d be hesitant to go out four or five years.

Kevin Love, F/C, Heat

2022/23: $28.9MM + $3.1MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Love was the runner-up for Sixth Man of the Year in 2021/22 after putting up 13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 2.2 APG on .430/.392/.838 shooting in 72 games (22.5 MPG) for Cleveland. He had a solid start this season, averaging 11.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 2.6 APG on .425/.409/.861 shooting in 15 games (21.3 MPG).

Unfortunately, he sustained a thumb injury that impacted his outside shooting – a huge reason why he had been an effective bench piece. Over the following 26 games (19.3 MP), he averaged just 6.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 1.4 APG on .364/.308/.926 shooting. The Cavs subsequently pulled him from the rotation, but he still wanted a chance to play, so the two sides reached a buyout agreement, with Love catching on with the Heat.

In 14 games (21.4 MPG) with Miami, he’s averaging 7.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 2.0 APG on .383/.286/.850 shooting. Love has always been a very good defensive rebounder, and he is a terrific outlet passer. However, he is an overall poor defensive player, he’ll be 35 years old before next season begins, and he has a lengthy injury history.

It’s hard to envision him getting more than a one-year contract in the offseason, and I’d be very surprised if it’s for more than the taxpayer mid-level exception (projected to be $7MM).

Max Strus, G/F, Heat

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Strus is already a success story as an undrafted free agent who originally caught on with Boston and then Chicago on two-way deals before tearing his ACL in December 2019. He worked his way back through the G League and caught on with Miami before ‘20/21, inking another two-way deal.

He impressed the Heat enough to earn a two-year, minimum-salary contract, and had a terrific season in ‘21/22, averaging 10.6 PPG and 3.0 RPG while shooting 41% from deep on high volume in 68 games (23.3 MPG). Strus was so important that he was starting for the Heat in the playoffs as they came very close to making it back to the Finals.

As with Love, Strus started the season well, averaging 15.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .460/.378/.864 shooting 15 games (33 MPG). He has been in a prolonged shooting slump for much of the rest of the season though, averaging 10.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.3 APG on .387/.328/.892 shooting over the past 57 games (27.9 MPG).

Strus isn’t a great defender, but he’s not a liability. The main reason he plays is to make timely cuts and space the floor. He’s shooting just 34% from three this season.

He’s only 26, so I have no doubt that he will get a multiyear contract and a raise on his minimum salary. But his stock is definitely down compared to last year.

Moritz Wagner, F/C, Magic

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Part of the reason Orlando was comfortable trading Mohamed Bamba at the deadline is that he had been supplanted in the rotation by Wagner, a fifth-year big man who played his college ball at Michigan. Wagner missed the first 18 games of the season while recovering from a foot injury, but has played well since he returned.

A talented, energetic and decisive scorer, Wagner is averaging a career-high 11.1 PPG along with 4.7 RPG on .496/.310/.844 shooting in 51 games (20.2 MPG). He has played well as a fill-in starter, averaging 14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 1.1 SPG on .525/.339/.869 shooting in 17 games (26.7 MPG).

At 6’11” and 245 pounds, Wagner has an interesting blend of ball skills and footwork for a center. He’s quite effective at using pump fakes to drive and spin his way to the basket, frequently drawing fouls. He’s converting 62.8% of his twos and 84.4% of his 3.4 free throw attempts per game, which is why his true shooting percentage is well above average (62.8%) even though he’s only shooting 31% from deep.

The 25-year-old has outplayed his minimum-salary deal, and the Magic have his Bird rights if they want to bring him back. Wagner is not a rim protector and he’s just an OK rebounder. Perhaps something in the range of $5-8MM per season could be within reach.

Kelly Oubre, G/F, Hornets

2022/23: $12.6MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

Oubre brings prototypical size on the wing at 6’7″ with an enormous 7’2″ wingspan. He’s an excellent athlete and excels in the open court.

Through 48 games (32.2 MPG), the 27-year-old is averaging a career-high 20.3 PPG along with 5.2 RPG and 1.4 SPG. He missed a good chunk of time after undergoing hand surgery in January.

The scoring looks nice, but it’s paired with below average efficiency, as Oubre has posted a .431/.319/.760 slash line for a 53.4 TS%. He has also recorded just 54 assists against 819 field goal attempts in ‘22/23, a remarkably low percentage. That isn’t an aberration – he’s only averaged 1.0 APG in 527 career games (25.8 MPG).

As a free agent in 2021, Oubre signed a two-year, $24.6MM contract with the Hornets, with the second year only guaranteed at $5MM. He has spoken multiple times about wanting to remain in Charlotte. I find it hard to believe he’ll get much more than he’s currently making on a short-term deal, but he hasn’t hurt his value either.

Southeast Notes: Bey, Magic, Hornets, Richards

March 22nd, 2023 at 11:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Saddiq Bey knew he was the subject of trade rumors going into last month’s deadline, but he was surprised when the Pistons actually dealt him, writes Mike Curtis of The Detroit News. Bey was sent to the Hawks in a four-team deal that didn’t become official until four days after it was agreed upon. He decided to look on the bright side of being traded and focus on contributing to his new team.

“It’s tough as a competitor, but you have to remember that once you get traded, somebody wanted you as well,” said Bey, who spent his first two-and-a-half NBA seasons in Detroit. “You could look at it in a negative way, like, ‘Damn, this team didn’t want me? But this team does want me.’ I think for me, looking at my faith, I just really trusted God. I think this is the place He wants me to be at, so I gotta make the most of it.”

The trade put Bey in the middle of a playoff race, and he’s been able to help Atlanta in its postseason push. He’s averaging 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds in 15 games since joining the Hawks while shooting 45.6% from three-point range.

“Saddiq respects the game, works on his body, works on his craft,” teammate John Collins said. “Has a total understanding on what it means to be a pro, so I just try to tell him to stay solid mentally and know that his time is coming.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

The Magic are a long shot to climb into the play-in tournament, but they’re enjoying the chance to play spoiler against teams that are above them in the standings, per Nathaniel Marrerro of The Orlando Sentinel. “When you’ve got teams that are trying to fight for playoff spots or fight to get into the playoffs, the intensity in the game is just a lot different,” Markelle Fultz said after Tuesday’s win over the 11th-seeded Wizards. “Any opportunity we get a chance to do that is huge for us and we’ve got to really lock in and take advantage of it.”
Steve Apostolopoulos, a Canadian billionaire who had discussions with Michael Jordan about buying the Hornets, has decided to focus on a chance to purchase the NFL’s Washington Commanders, according to Brian Windhorst and Adam Schefter of ESPN. Jordan’s company issued a statement this week revealing that he has talked to minority owner Gabe Plotkin about buying a larger share of the team, writes Steve Reed of The Associated Press, but the release doesn’t specify whether Jordan plans to remain the majority owner.
Nick Richards‘ new three-year extension with the Hornets includes a team option for the final season, tweets Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.

Hornets Sign Nick Richards To Three-Year Extension

March 22nd, 2023 at 7:32pm CST by Arthur Hill

7:32pm: The extension is official, the Hornets announced (via Twitter).

6:14pm: Nick Richards has agreed to a three-year, $15MM extension with the Hornets, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The deal was confirmed by Richards’ agents, Javon Phillips and Jared Mucha of Excel Basketball, Wojnarowski adds.

The 25-year-old center has established himself as a member of Charlotte’s rotation in his third NBA season by averaging 7.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 62.3% from the field.

He has appeared in 58 of the team’s 73 contests, making five starts and playing 18.2 minutes per night. He’s coming off a career high 17-rebound performance Monday against the Pacers.

Richards has seen up an uptick in playing time since Charlotte sent Mason Plumlee to the Clippers in a trade deadline deal. He has even entered the Hornets’ starting lineup as of late, making his first five starts of the season since March 11.

The Hornets acquired Richards from New Orleans in a draft night trade after he was selected with the 42nd pick in 2020. He appeared in just 18 games as a rookie, spending much of the season in the G League, and played 50 games last season.

Richards, who is making $1.78MM this season, was nearing the end of his three-year contract, so the extension will prevent him from entering free agency this summer.

All three of the Hornets’ young centers are now under contract for multiple seasons. Kai Jones‘ rookie deal runs through 2025, while Mark Williams‘ expires in 2026.

Southeast Notes: Martin, Ball, Cooks, Murray

March 20th, 2023 at 11:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Cody Martin is doing his best to help the Hornets as a leader from the sidelines, but it’s not a role he enjoys, writes Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer. A troublesome left knee has limited Martin to seven games in his first season since signing a four-year, $31MM contract.

Martin’s injury problems began in training camp, Boone notes, and he was only able to suit up for one of the team’s five preseason games. Martin played just 56 seconds in the regular season opener and underwent arthroscopic surgery on November 11. He returned in early January after missing 37 games, but could only play six more times before being sidelined again.

“You never go into a season thinking something like this is going to happen,” Martin said. “You are not really ever prepared for it. It’s very, very frustrating. This is the first time I’ve ever had to sit out for an extended period of time. So I’m just trying to do my best to be positive mentally and just continue to do whatever I can rehab-wise and do what the training staff is saying. Unfortunately, it’s taken this long. I’m just trying to be smart with it, I’m just trying to be consistent with it, just do whatever I can.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

After undergoing ankle surgery three weeks ago, Hornets guard LaMelo Ball said he’s dedicated to rehab and plans to be 100% by the start of training camp, Boone tweets. Ball added that he still enjoys being in Charlotte, saying, “Yeah, I love it here.”
Fresh off winning an NBL title with the Sydney Kings, Xavier Cooks hopes to help the Wizards with their playoff push, per Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. The Australian forward signed with the team on Friday and made his NBA debut Saturday night. “It’s been a lifelong dream to get here,” Cooks said. “It’s taken me 27 years to get here. I’m, what, five years out of college? My dream is a little bit different than everybody else’s.”
Hawks guard Dejounte Murray feels like he got “closure” when Spurs fans gave him a warm reception in his return to San Antonio for Sunday’s game, tweets Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. “I felt like it was what it should be,” Murray said. “We showed nothing but love, both sides, from myself, the fans, the organization.”

Clifford Doesn't Want Players To Check Out

March 18th, 2023 at 10:31am CST by Dana Gauruder

The Hornets have won only 22 games and they’re currently on a four-game losing streak, but coach Steve Clifford is still riding his players hard and warning them to not mentally check out the rest of the way, Roderick Boone of the Charlotte Observer reports. “I want us to try to play to win,” he said. “We’re doing a lot of individual messaging with guys about what they can concentrate on. I don’t want to just play it out. I don’t want to do that. I don’t think that’s smart to do.” Clifford’s status beyond this season is questionable with Michael Jordan looking to sell his stake in the franchise.

2023’s Most Valuable Traded Second-Round Picks

March 17th, 2023 at 10:29am CST by Luke Adams

Fans of lottery-bound NBA teams will be keeping a close on the bottom of the league’s standings down the stretch because of the effect that “race” will have on the draft order and lottery odds for the 2023 first round.

However, it’s not just the first round of the draft that’s worth keeping an eye on. Those reverse standings will also dictate the order of the draft’s second round, and an early second-round pick can be nearly as valuable as a first-rounder.

Here are a few of the traded 2023 draft picks that project to land near the top of the second round:

From: Houston Rockets
To: Indiana Pacers or Boston Celtics
Current projection: No. 32

The Rockets initially traded their 2023 second-round pick, with top-32 protection, to Memphis at the 2020 trade deadline as part of a Bruno Caboclo/Jordan Bell swap. The Celtics later acquired that top-32 protected second-rounder during the 2020 offseason in the deal that sent the draft rights to No. 30 pick Desmond Bane to the Grizzlies.

As part of the complex four-team James Harden blockbuster in early 2021, the Rockets agreed to send the Pacers their 2023 second-round pick if it ends up at No. 31 and No. 32. So the Pacers are on track to receive that Houston second-rounder if it’s one of the first two picks of the round, while the Celtics would get it otherwise.

We took a closer look at this draft-related subplot of the NBA’s race to the bottom last week, noting that the Pacers could instead end up with a pick in the early 50s if the Rockets’ second-rounder slips to No. 33. Missing out on Houston’s pick wouldn’t be quite as bad for the Celtics, as we outline below.

From: Portland Trail Blazers
To: Boston Celtics or Oklahoma City Thunder
Current projection: No. 36

If the Rockets’ second-round pick ends up at No. 31 or No. 32, the Celtics will almost certainly receive Portland’s pick instead. If Houston’s second-rounder lands at No. 33, Boston would get it, while the Thunder would acquire the Blazers’ pick.

Should the Blazers’ recent slide continue, their second-rounder may not actually be much less favorable than Houston’s — only four spots separate them for the time being.

The Blazers originally gave up their 2023 second-round selection when they acquired Rodney Hood from Cleveland just ahead of the 2019 deadline. It was subsequently flipped to the Pistons (in the 2019 offeason), the Clippers (in the 2020 offseason), the Hawks (at the 2021 deadline), and finally the Celtics in a three-team trade during the summer of 2021.

When they acquired Mike Muscala from the Thunder last month, the Celtics agreed to send OKC the least favorable of their two 2023 second-round picks, which is why the Thunder would receive Portland’s pick if Boston gets Houston’s.

From: Chicago Bulls
To: Washington Wizards
Current projection: No. 37

The Bulls remain in the thick of the play-in race in the Eastern Conference, so it’s possible their second-rounder could slide all the way to the mid-40s if they make the play-in tournament and then earn a playoff spot. However, the Wizards – the team the Bulls are chasing for the No. 10 spot in the East – have extra incentive to stay ahead of Chicago, thereby increasing the value of this pick.

The Wizards acquired this Bulls second-rounder with top-36 protection when they sent Otto Porter Jr. to Chicago at the 2019 deadline. The Bulls agreed to remove the protections as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Tomas Satoransky later that year.

Interestingly, the Wizards actually traded Chicago’s 2023 second-rounder to the Lakers as part of the Russell Westbrook blockbuster in the summer of 2021, but got it back from L.A. a couple months ago in the Rui Hachimura deal.

From: Indiana Pacers
To: Sacramento Kings
Current projection: No. 38

Like the Bulls, the Pacers are still in the play-in race in the East, so there’s no guarantee this pick will land in the top 10 of the second round. But Indiana has a banged-up roster and doesn’t appear overly incentivized to make the play-in tournament.

This pick changed hands in the Domantas Sabonis/Tyrese Haliburton mega-deal at the 2022 trade deadline. Technically, the Spurs would receive it if it lands between Nos. 56 and 60, but we can safely rule out that possibility at this point.

Other picks to watch:

Given how congested the play-in races are in each conference, there are a handful of other second-rounders whose value could surpass that of a couple of the picks listed above.

For instance, the Jazz‘s second-round pick is currently controlled by the Hornets, the Spurs own the Raptors‘ second-rounder, and the Thunder will acquire the Wizards‘ second-rounder if it’s more favorable than OKC’s own pick.

Michael Jordan In Discussions To Sell Majority Stake In Hornets

March 16th, 2023 at 5:58pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Longtime Hornets majority owner Michael Jordan may soon be giving up control of the franchise. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, Jordan is currently “in serious talks” to offload a majority stake in the Hornets to another ownership group fronted by Hawks minority owner Rick Schnall and current Charlotte minority owners Gabe Plotkin and Daniel Sundheim.

While a deal is not imminent, there’s momentum toward an agreement that would eventually make Schnall and Plotkin co-governors of the Hornets, Wojnarowski adds.

Woj hears that Jordan intends to hold on to at least a minority piece of the club if a sale agreement is reached.

Jordan purchased his initial majority stake in the Hornets for $275MM in 2010, but has been at least a partial owner since 2009. The Hornets’ value as a franchise has only increased since Jordan bought that initial stake. Sportico’s most recent valuation of the team estimated its worth at $1.77 billion (Twitter link).

With a new television deal on the horizon, it seems like a wise investing decision to maintain at least some portion of Charlotte for the immediate future.

The rebuilding Hornets currently occupy the East’s No. 14 seed with a 22-49 record. The team is in prime position to add a major talent in what is expected to be an exciting 2023 draft. During the 2021/22 season, Charlotte did qualify for the East’s play-in tournament, but lost a 132-103 blowout to the Hawks.

Southeast Notes: Richards, Carter, Lowry, Yurtseven

March 12th, 2023 at 3:04pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Hornets center Nick Richards has enjoyed a career year in Charlotte, writes Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer.

Boone wonders if Richards, who is eligible for restricted free agency this summer, has carved out enough of a role to warrant consideration as a long-term member of the rebuilding club’s roster. Richards is averaging a career-best 7.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 1.0 BPG this season.

“I’m just trying to be more consistent,” Richards said of his improvement this season. “I’m just getting as many blocks as possible, getting as many rebounds as possible. That’s my job, that’s what I’m here for. So, I’ve just got to do it to the best of my ability.”

Boone tweets that Richards will most likely earn another start tonight, as nominal starter Mark Williams is considered doubtful to play through a right thumb sprain.

There’s more out of the Southeast Division:

In his first contest back with the Magic following a three-game absence, a big overtime victory over the Heat, starting center Wendell Carter Jr. helped galvanize his team, writes Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. The 6’10” big man scored 27 points and pulled down 11 rebounds in Orlando’s 126-114 win. Price notes that the Magic’s defensive efficiency suffered mightily with Carter sidelined.
After being sidelined for 15 straight games with a sore knee, Heat point guard Kyle Lowry played off the bench for the first time since January 2013 in Saturday’s loss to Orlando, writes Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald (subscriber link). Gabe Vincent drew the start. Lowry is adjusting to the change, having started for 677 consecutive games. “At this point, I know in my heart I’m a starter,” Lowry said. “(Head coach Erik Spoelstra) and I talked and he wants to make sure I’m healthy and not have to change the lineup again and change the rotation. Great communicator he is, great coach he is, I respect (that).”
Heat reserve center Omer Yurtseven made his first appearance this season after Cody Zeller broke his nose and had to depart the Magic game, Jackson adds. Yurtseven, a restricted free agent this summer, had just one rebound, one missed shot, and a foul in seven minutes.

NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots

March 8th, 2023 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

It has been nearly a month since the NBA’s trade deadline passed, and the post-deadline transaction wire continues to be pretty busy, with teams that opened up roster spots at or since the deadline still working to fill them.

Clubs are also making plenty of roster moves with their players on two-way contracts, opening up two-way slots by either promoting those players to standard deals or by cutting them to take a flier on another prospect.

It has been a few weeks since we last checked in on which teams have open roster spots, so it’s worth taking a closer look at that today. If a team isn’t listed below, you can assume it has a full 17-man roster made up of 15 players on full-season standard contracts and a pair on two-way deals.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

Let’s dive in…

Teams with an open 15-man roster spot:

Boston Celtics
Charlotte Hornets
Houston Rockets *
Los Angeles Lakers
New York Knicks *
Utah Jazz ^

* These teams have one open roster spot and one filled by a 10-day contract.
^ This team has two open roster spots and one filled by a 10-day contract.

The Celtics, Hornets, and Lakers have pretty straightforward roster situations — they’re carrying 14 players on standard, rest-of-season contracts, with open spot left to fill. The Celtics and Lakers may be more inclined to fill their openings with a veteran who could provide depth in the postseason if necessary. The Hornets, if they don’t re-sign restricted free agent Miles Bridges this season, will likely add a younger prospect on a team-friendly multiyear deal.

The Rockets and Knicks each have one open spot on their standard 15-man roster and are also carrying a player on a 10-day deal — Willie Cauley-Stein for Houston and DaQuan Jeffries for New York. Both players will be eligible for second 10-day contracts when their current pacts expire. If the Rockets and/or Knicks want to go in another direction, they’d have up to two weeks to sign a 14th man.

As for the Jazz, they’re only carrying 13 players on their standard roster and one of those players (Kris Dunn) is on his second 10-day contract with the club. Even if Utah intends to sign Dunn to a rest-of-season deal when his current contract is up, the team will need to make another signing before next weekend to adhere to the NBA’s minimum roster requirements.

Teams with full 15-man rosters that include a 10-day contract:

Brooklyn Nets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards

The Nets (Nerlens Noel), Cavaliers (Sam Merrill), Pistons (Eugene Omoruyi), Warriors (Lester Quinones), Bucks (Meyers Leonard), and Wizards (Jamaree Bouyea) all have a player on a 10-day contract occupying their 15th roster spot, so they could easily open up a roster spot if need be.

Of those players, only Leonard is on his second 10-day deal with the same team, so the others could all be re-signed for another 10 days. The Wizards, however, are reportedly set to sign NBL standout Xavier Cooks to fill the spot currently occupied by Bouyea.

Teams with an open two-way contract slot:

Charlotte Hornets
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns

The Hornets (Bryce McGowens), Knicks (Jeffries), Magic (Admiral Schofield), and Suns (Ish Wainright) have all promoted two-way players to their standard roster since the trade deadline and have yet to fill those two-way openings.

Orlando’s G League affiliate, the Lakeland Magic, is fighting for an NBAGL spot, so there’s some incentive to fill that two-way opening sooner rather than later. Conversely, there’s probably not much urgency for Phoenix to sign another player to a two-way contract, since the Suns don’t have a G League affiliate of their own and two-way players won’t be eligible for the NBA postseason.

Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise if all four of these spots are filled in the coming weeks.

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

March 7th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:

Picks that will be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.