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Potential 2022 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 15th, 2022 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the 2020/21 season. We outlined those tweaks at the start of the season.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Bruce Brown met the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, increasing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,736,102. The Nets decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it. Had he fallen short of the starter criteria, Brown only would have been eligible for a qualifying offer worth around $2MM and his free agency could have played out very differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who did not meet the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,228,448.

Marvin Bagley III (Pistons)
Collin Sexton (Cavaliers)
Kevin Knox (Hawks)

Seven of the 14 players selected with lottery picks in the 2018 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2021, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason.

Of the other seven, the three players listed above failed to meet the criteria. Bagley is the biggest loser in the trio — his qualifying offer would’ve been worth approximately $14.76MM if he had met the starter criteria. Sexton’s would’ve been about $8.56MM, while Knox’s would’ve been $7.92MM.

Even with the amount of his qualifying offer lowered a little, Knox likely won’t receive a QO at all, making him an unrestricted free agent. Bagley and Sexton are much safer bets for QOs.

Top-14 picks Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Mohamed Bamba (Magic), each met the starter criteria, locking in their QO amounts at $16.42MM and $10.1MM, respectively. Miles Bridges (Hornets) also met the starter criteria, as detailed in the next section.

Jerome Robinson was the only top-14 pick from ’18 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — he’s no longer on an NBA roster and won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer this summer.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A player who fell into this category would see the amount of his qualifying offer increase to $7,921,300. Bridges, the No. 12 overall pick, was the only player to qualify.

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Bridges’ qualifying offer will increase from about $7.46MM to $7.92MM, a modest bump. It shouldn’t change the outlook of his free agency, since he’ll almost certainly receive a lucrative long-term offer.

Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons looked like one of the best candidates to join Bridges in this group. He needed to make 41 starts this season for Portland, but only got to 30 before he was shut down for the season with a left knee injury. His qualifying offer will remain at $5.76MM, but that shouldn’t have a major impact on his free agency, since he’ll likely work out a multiyear deal with the Blazers.

Meanwhile, because Kings wing Donte DiVincenzo was a full-time starter for the Bucks in 2020/21, he only needed to make seven starts this season to meet the starter criteria. However, he ultimately started just once for Milwaukee and Sacramento, even when he was playing heavy minutes down the stretch for the Kings.

DiVincenzo’s qualifying offer will remain at $6.6MM, which actually could have a tangible effect on his free agency — if he doesn’t get a multiyear offer with a starting salary much higher than his qualifying offer, accepting the QO and reaching unrestricted free agency in 2023 may be DiVincenzo’s best option. Presumably, that’s why his camp reportedly wasn’t thrilled that he was still coming off the bench at the end of the season.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,869,012.

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)
Jae’Sean Tate (Rockets)

Of course, it’s very possible neither Dort nor Tate will even become a free agent this summer, since their contracts both include team options for 2022/23.

The Thunder could decide to turn down Dort’s minimum-salary option for next season in order to make him a restricted free agent this year instead of an unrestricted free agent next year, but there’s no guarantee they’ll go that route. If they do, his QO would be worth $4.87MM instead of $2.22MM.

Meanwhile, there’s no incentive for the Rockets to decline Tate’s option, since he’ll still be eligible for restricted free agency in 2023, so the amount of his potential qualifying offer this summer will be rendered moot.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, Hornets wing Cody Martin (1,866 minutes), Clippers swingman Amir Coffey (30 starts), and Trail Blazers forward CJ Elleby (28 starts) are a few who were in the ballpark of the starter criteria, but none got there. Martin, Coffey, Elleby, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Miles Bridges Fined $50K For Tossing Mouthpiece

April 14th, 2022 at 6:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hornets forward Miles Bridges has been fined $50K by the league for throwing his mouthpiece into the spectator stands, which resulted in the mouthpiece striking a teenage fan, the NBA announced today (via Twitter).

The incident occurred after Bridges received two technical fouls and was ejected during the fourth quarter of Charlotte’s 132-103 play-in tournament loss to the Hawks on Wednesday. Bridges was irritated by a heckler as he headed toward the locker room and responded by whipping his mouthpiece into the stands, which missed the heckler and instead hit a 16-year-old girl.

He expressed regret afterward and hopes to make amends with the fan he struck.

“I was upset about a call, a couple of calls really. I let my temper get the best of me. That was definitely the wrong thing to do,” Bridges said. ” … I was aiming for the guy that was screaming at me and it hit a little girl … I take full responsibility and will take any consequences the NBA gives me. … Hopefully, I can get in contact with the young lady, sincerely apologize and do something nice for her.”

Hornets Notes: Play-In Loss, Bridges, Washington, Borrego

April 14th, 2022 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets were exposed by the Hawks in Wednesday’s play-in game that ended their season, writes Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer.

As Boone outlines, the Hornets’ Achilles heel all year long was their defense and it was the weak link again on Wednesday in a 132-103 loss. Penetration into the paint was an ongoing issue, according to Boone, who suggests the Hornets lack any sort of intimidating interior presence and could badly use an athletic, shot-blocking center.

As Zach Kram of The Ringer observes, it was the second consecutive year in which the Hornets allowed more than 128 points per 100 possessions in an elimination play-in game, so addressing the defense has to be the team’s top priority this offseason. Besides acquiring a defensive-minded center, Charlotte could also benefit from adding a reliable wing who can capably guard opposing teams’ most dangerous perimeter players, Kram notes.

Here’s more on the Hornets as they prepare for their offseason:

Ejected in the fourth quarter of Wednesday’s loss, Miles Bridges threw his mouthpiece at a fan who was taunting him on his way to the locker room, but missed and hit another fan, a 16-year-old girl (video link). Bridges, who figures to face at least a fine from the NBA, apologized after the game for the incident, per Scott Fowler and Matthew Stephens of The Charlotte Observer. “I was upset about a call, a couple of calls really. I let my temper get the best of me. That was definitely the wrong thing to do,” Bridges said. ” … I was aiming for the guy that was screaming at me and it hit a little girl … I take full responsibility and will take any consequences the NBA gives me. … Hopefully, I can get in contact with the young lady, sincerely apologize and do something nice for her.”
Viewed as a potential trade candidate in February, P.J. Washington entered the Hornets’ starting lineup after the deadline and played a key role in the club’s success down the stretch, Boone writes for The Charlotte Observer. Washington will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, so Charlotte will have to decide soon how he fits into the organization’s long-term plans.
In his preview of the Hornets’ offseason, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) explores how the team should approach the summer, taking an in-depth look at Bridges’ restricted free agency and Washington’s case for an extension. Besides needing a starting center, the Hornets could also use a backup point guard and need James Bouknight to develop into a rotation player, Marks writes.
After extending him last offseason, the Hornets seem likely to retain head coach James Borrego for 2022/23, but after the way the season ended, his seat should be considered warm – if not hot – going forward, Fowler writes in a column for The Charlotte Observer.
In case you missed it, we passed along a series of Hornets-related rumors on Wednesday.

Hornets Rumors: Kupchak, Hayward, Bridges, Borrego

April 13th, 2022 at 1:08pm CST by Luke Adams

People around the NBA have speculated for years about the possibility of Hornets president of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak leaving the organization or transitioning into more of an advisory role, but those whispers have intensified this year, according to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report. As Fischer explains, Kupchak’s current contract with Charlotte is believed to expire at the end of this season.

It’s unclear at this point what Kupchak’s future holds, but Fischer says two names have frequently been cited as potential candidates for the top job in the Hornets’ front office if a change occurs. One is current assistant general manager Buzz Peterson, who was roommates with team owner Michael Jordan at UNC. The other is Bulls GM Marc Eversley, who interviewed for the job in 2018 before the Hornets hired Kupchak.

Here’s more on the Hornets:

“Word has circulated” among rival front offices that Hornets forward Gordon Hayward may be interested in a change of scenery this offseason, Fischer reports. However, a source close to Hayward told Bleacher Report that the veteran is primarily focused on recovering from the foot injury that appears likely to end his season.
Some league executives think that Hayward could be involved in a trade for Russell Westbrook, allowing the Hornets to increase their 2023 cap flexibility, according to Fischer. However, it would be a challenge for the Hornets and Lakers to work out a deal that appeals to both sides and includes both of those highly-paid former All-Stars. Using Hayward to try to acquire a center is another option Charlotte could explore, Fischer adds.
It’s unclear whether the Pacers will seriously consider Myles Turner – long considered a top trade target for the Hornets – this offseason, but league personnel expect Charlotte to be in the market for a rim protector like Turner. “They don’t defend,” one team scout said to Fischer. “You gotta find a defensive identity.”
Fischer’s sources believe the Hornets would match any offer sheet for RFA-to-be Miles Bridges. With that in mind, it remains to be seen if teams will be dissuaded from going after Bridges or if there could be a club willing to submit a maximum-salary offer to force Charlotte to match it. A four-year max deal for Bridges from a rival suitor projects to be worth about $128MM.
Even if the Hornets don’t make the playoffs via the play-in tournament, Fischer’s sources inside and outside of the franchise believe head coach James Borrego is a good bet to stick around. “It would make no sense to fire him,” an assistant general manager told Bleacher Report. “I know the NBA is a results-oriented business, but if you believe in him to be your coach, if you believe in him growing alongside LaMelo (Ball) and Bridges, you’ve taken a step forward each of the last two seasons, you just extended him. Why would not making the playoffs with a young roster suddenly change that?”

Poll: Wednesday’s Play-In Games

April 13th, 2022 at 7:22am CST by Luke Adams

There were no major surprises in Tuesday’s NBA play-in games. The favorites in those two matchups, the No. 7 Nets and the No. 7 Timberwolves, picked up home victories to secure the No. 7 seeds in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference, respectively. Brooklyn will face Boston in the first round of the playoffs, while Minnesota will take on Memphis.

Having lost on Tuesday, the No. 8 Cavaliers and No. 8 Clippers are now preparing to host play-in games on Friday to decide the No. 8 seed in each conference. Their opponents will be determined in a pair of Wednesday play-in contests.

First up, in the East, is a meeting of Southeast rivals, as the No. 10 Hornets visit the No. 9 Hawks.

Both teams finished the season strong — after a tough 17-25 start, Atlanta went 26-14 the rest of the way to secure a play-in berth. The Hornets, meanwhile, lost 13 of 17 games during an extended slump from January to March, but bounced back to win 11 of their last 15 en route to a play-in spot.

The Hawks and Hornets will each be missing a key player, as big man John Collins and forward Gordon Hayward have been ruled out due to injuries. But star point guards Trae Young and LaMelo Ball are still surrounded by strong supporting casts, with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari playing major roles for Atlanta, while Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Kelly Oubre, and Montrezl Harrell complement Ball for Charlotte.

Both Southeast clubs paired top-10 offenses (No. 2 for Atlanta and No. 8 for Charlotte) with bottom-10 defenses (No. 22 for Charlotte and No. 26 for Atlanta) and finished in the middle of the pack in net rating (No. 14 for Atlanta and No. 16 for Charlotte). The Hawks’ home-court advantage helps make them a five-point favorite, according to BetOnline.ag.

Over in the West, the No. 9 Pelicans will host the No. 10 Spurs in Wednesday’s late game.

The Pelicans – a five-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag – generated more buzz than the Spurs down the stretch following a splashy trade deadline that saw them acquire star guard CJ McCollum. The longtime Blazer joined former All-Star Brandon Ingram, standout rookie Herbert Jones, double-double machine Jonas Valanciunas, and center-turned-forward Jaxson Hayes in what has become a formidable starting five. That group has posted a +8.2 net rating in 142 minutes.

The Spurs, meanwhile, were overlooked and viewed as a probable lottery team for much of the season, but they took advantage of the Trail Blazers’ decision to tank and the Lakers’ and Kings’ inability to win games consistently and claimed the West’s final play-in spot.

At 34-48, the Spurs are far from a juggernaut and aren’t loaded with star power, but All-Star guard Dejounte Murray, third-year forward Keldon Johnson, and center Jakob Poeltl had strong seasons, and the club’s rotation is filled out by useful role players like Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson, and Tre Jones.

Those looking for a reason to pick a San Antonio upset should note that the team actually had a better record on the road (18-23) than at home (16-25) this season, and registered a better net rating (+0.2) than the Pelicans (-0.8).

We want to know what you think. Will the favorites win again in Wednesday’s play-in games or will we get at least one upset tonight? Which teams will stay alive and which will head home for the season?

Make your picks in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in on tonight’s play-in matchups!

And-Ones: Kerr, Schofield, Lopez, Harrell, Play-In, McClung, Harrison

April 10th, 2022 at 3:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Would less be more? When it comes to the NBA schedule, Warriors coach Steve Kerr believes so. He’d like to see the NBA cut its regular season from 82 games to 72, Monte Poole of NBC Sports Bay Area writes. That would encourage coaches to play their regulars more often, instead of giving them nights off, particularly as the season winds down.

“What makes the most sense is cutting back to maybe a 72-game schedule,” Kerr said. “Take 10 games off and get more time to rest in between games. I think you’ll get buy-in from the teams to play their guys more often.”

We have more tidbits from around the basketball world:

Magic forward Admiral Schofield was fined $20K, while Magic center Robin Lopez and Hornets center Montrezl Harrell were fined $15K for their roles in an on-court altercation on Thursday, the NBA announced (Twitter link). All three were ejected during the fourth-quarter scuffle (video link).
Commissioner Adam Silver likes the way the play-in tournament has encouraged teams on the playoff bubble to remain competitive but might tweak it in future years, Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic tweets. Executive VP of basketball strategy and analytics Evan Wasch suggested the league would consider a scenario where the ninth- and 10th-place finishers in each conference would have to win a certain number of games to qualify for the play-in.
Guard Mac McClung was named NBA G League Rookie of the Year after averaging 21.6 PPG and 7.6 APG for the South Bay Lakers, the league tweets. The Lakers rewarded McClung with a two-way contract on Saturday.
Free agent guard Shaquille Harrison has been named G League Defensive Player of the Year, according to a league press release. Harrison averaged 1.93 steals per game for the Delaware Blue Coats.

Gordon Hayward To Miss Play-In Tournament

April 10th, 2022 at 12:16pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Hornets forward Gordon Hayward will miss the NBA’s play-in tournament due to a foot injury, the team announced in a press release.

Hayward is out indefinitely because of nagging pain in his left foot. He will be placed in a cast to immobilize his foot and he will be re-evaluated in approximately two weeks.

He missed nearly two months of action due to sprained ligaments in his left ankle before returning last Saturday, April 2. Hayward played 17 minutes but returned to the sidelines this week.

The team’s highest-paid player, Hayward is averaging 15.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 3.6 APG in 31.9 MPG in 49 appearances during his second season with the club. He has two seasons and approximately $61.6MM remaining on his contract.

Charlotte entered the final day of the regular season tied for ninth place in the Eastern Conference with a 42-39 record. Assuming they don’t move up in the standings today, the Hornets would have to win two play-in games to earn a playoff spot.

Hornets Might Have Interest In Russell Westbrook

April 7th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

League insiders have increasingly mentioned the Hornets as a team that might have interest in trading for Lakers guard Russell Westbrook, writes Marc Stein at Substack.

Charlotte would only be interested in Westbrook in order to create long-term financial flexibility, and based on salary-matching rules, the team would have to send out roughly $38MM to acquire the former MVP. Stein points to Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier as contracts the team might want to move to accommodate a new deal for Miles Bridges this summer, plus the future max extension of LaMelo Ball.

Hayward has been very productive when healthy for Charlotte, but injuries have again been a concern. After appearing in 44 of 72 games last season, he’s played in 49 of 79 contests this season and is listed as doubtful for Thursday’s matchup with Orlando (Twitter link). Hayward will earn $30.075MM next season and $31.5MM in 2023/24.

Rozier has also been productive over the past few seasons. His four-year, $96.26MM extension starts next season, so he’ll be under contract through ’25/26.

Pairing Hayward or Rozier with Kelly Oubre could work as a framework of a deal, Stein says. He also notes that Hornets owner Michael Jordan has long admired Westbrook, although it isn’t known whether that would play a factor in a potential trade.

The Rockets remain the most logical trade partner for Westbrook due to John Wall‘s salary being a near-perfect match, but the Lakers might not find that any more palatable than they did previously, considering Houston was asking for a first-round pick, per Stein.

League sources tell Stein that the Lakers also haven’t ruled out using the waive-and-stretch provision on Westbrook’s contract, which would split his $47.06MM player option over three seasons with annual hits of $15.69MM. Going that route would take Los Angeles out of the luxury tax and make it much easier to retain Malik Monk; the team badly wants to bring him back, so it’s considered a viable possibility.

Health Updates: D. Murray, Hayward, Mobley, Zion, More

April 6th, 2022 at 9:15am CST by Luke Adams

Dejounte Murray, who missed a third straight game on Tuesday due to an upper respiratory illness, may not accompany the Spurs on their trip to Minnesota for Thursday’s game, head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters, including Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News (Twitter link).

As it turned out, the Spurs didn’t need their All-Star guard available in order to clinch a play-in spot with a victory in Denver on Tuesday. The Spurs are just one game behind the Pelicans in the standings for the No. 9 spot and hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans, so if the two teams finish with identical records, their play-in game would take place in San Antonio.

Here are a few more health updates from around the NBA:

After making his return from a foot injury on Saturday, Hornets forward Gordon Hayward missed Tuesday’s contest against the Heat. According to Rod Boone of The Charlotte Observer (Twitter link), head coach James Borrego referred to it as a precautionary move and said the team doesn’t want to push Hayward too hard following a lengthy absence.
Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley did a lot of on-court work on Tuesday and is making progress in his recovery from a sprained ankle, tweets Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. A source tells Fedor there’s a chance Mobley will play in Brooklyn on Friday. The team will know more after Thursday’s practice.
Pelicans head coach Willie Green didn’t provide an official update on Zion Williamson‘s injury rehab on Tuesday, but sources tell Andrew Lopez of ESPN (Twitter links) that the star forward has progressed to more on-court work. He remains out indefinitely.
The Clippers upgraded Norman Powell (foot) from out to doubtful for Wednesday’s game vs. Phoenix, tweets Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times. It still sounds like Powell probably won’t play tonight, but it’s a good sign that he’s moving closer to a return.
Heat power forward P.J. Tucker left Tuesday’s win early due to what the team has initially diagnosed as a right calf strain, per Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. Acting head coach Chris Quinn said Tucker will get looked at more extensively on Wednesday.

Eastern Notes: Hayward, Lowry, Barnes, Duarte, Porzingis

April 4th, 2022 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Incorporating Gordon Hayward back into the rotation is a tricky task for Hornets coach James Borrego, Roderick Boone of the Charlotte Observer notes. Hayward missed nearly two months of action due to a foot injury. He had five points, four rebounds and three assists in 17 minutes against Philadelphia on Saturday.

“Well, it’s a challenge, but that’s my job and I’ll figure it out,” Borrego said. “We’ll take a look at the film, look at the rotations. We’ve got two days now to digest and figure out what we are going to do. … I’ll try to bring some consistency to the lineup and try to communicate that to our group, making sure everybody understands their role and what this rotation is going to look like moving forward.”

We have more from the Eastern Conference:

Heat guard Kyle Lowry is impressed by the lottery pick his former team drafted, Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports tweets. Lowry sees Scottie Barnes as a potential franchise player for the Raptors. “He’s a special talent. He’s going to be a cornerstone of the franchise,” Lowry said. “He fits in perfectly here – how hard he plays, how passionate he is for the game. And he’s only going to continue to get better.”
Pacers rookie Chris Duarte won’t play during the final week of the season, according to Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files. Duarte hasn’t played since March 15 due to a left big toe injury. Duarte, the 13th pick of last year’s draft, averaged 13.1 PPG in 28 MPG while appearing in 55 games.
The Wizards defeated Dallas on Friday, the first time Kristaps Porzingis played against his former team. Porzingis was grateful for the intensity his new teammates showed, Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington writes. “What I liked is everybody had my back (Friday),” Porzingis said. “They knew it was, I don’t want to say a personal game, but it’s always fun to compete against your former team. Everybody had my back.”