- Even with All-Stars Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, the Bulls have virtually no shot at reaching the top three in the Eastern Conference in the next few seasons, Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times writes. Chicago will even have difficulty breaking into the next tier of teams, considering that franchises such as the Hawks and Knicks are on the upswing and the Celtics and Heat are committed to winning.
The Warriors have interest in bringing back free agent wings Kelly Oubre and Kent Bazemore, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. However, it sounds like neither player will be as affordable on his next contract as he was on his previous deal.
Appearing on the HoopsHype podcast alongside Yossi Gozlan, Scotto said he has gotten the sense from a league source that Oubre and his camp believe they can get a long-term contract worth at least $20MM annually, which may be higher than the Warriors are willing to go. As for Bazemore, Scotto didn’t specify an asking price, but said the goal for the veteran forward is to get a multiyear deal — ideally one that covers three years rather than two.
The Warriors have Oubre’s full Bird rights, but only hold Non-Bird rights on Bazemore, so their ability to offer him a raise on his minimum-salary contract will be limited.
Here’s more from Scotto, including another note on the Warriors:
- Although the Warriors won’t be actively looking to move James Wiseman, they’d be open to listening to inquiries on the big man if an All-Star caliber player is available, a league source tells Scotto.
- There’s a belief that Lonzo Ball will be able to get around $20MM per year in restricted free agency, though it’s unclear if the Pelicans are prepared to go that high, says Scotto, adding that rumors of the Bulls’ interest in the former No. 2 overall pick seem to “have some legs.”
- Re-signing RFAs-to-be Ball and Josh Hart would almost certainly take the Pelicans into luxury tax territory, so Scotto expects Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams to be names that come up in trade rumors this offseason. Bledsoe will earn $18.1MM in 2021/22, while Adams will make $17.1MM.
- Scotto says he has heard from an executive or two around the NBA that Spurs assistant Will Hardy is viewed as a legit candidate to be Gregg Popovich‘s eventual replacement as San Antonio’s head coach. Hardy received consideration from multiple teams that sought a head coach in 2020.
The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.
The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):
- Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
- Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
- Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
- Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
- New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
- New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
- Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
- Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).
Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.
However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.
Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.
The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.
The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.
- The Mavericks and Knicks are two potential landing spots for Bulls free agent Lauri Markkanen, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times speculates. According to Cowley, Markkanen would prefer to join forces with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but Markkanen and Porzingis possess similar skill sets, so that might not be a fit for the Mavericks. However, the Knicks will have the most cap room this offseason and could use more shooting, Cowley adds. Chicago will have to extend a $9MM offer to make Markkanen a restricted free agent.
On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.
With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…
Lottery standings
Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.
A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).
The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.
Draft order
Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.
The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.
If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.
Notable traded second-round picks
On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:
The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.
The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.
Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.
The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.
The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).
Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).
The bold moves that the Bulls made at the trade deadline didn’t get them into the playoffs, but star guard Zach LaVine is encouraged by the direction of the franchise, writes Jamal Collier of The Chicago Tribune. Chicago shook up its roster in late March, including a blockbuster trade to acquire All-Star center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando. The organization is hoping LaVine and Vucevic will be the foundation of the team for years to come.
LaVine is eligible for an extension next season or he could opt for free agency in 2022. Either way, it appears he wants to remain with the franchise.
“Obviously with the trade, it made us a lot better, and I loved it,” LaVine said. “I love it here in Chicago. And I think everybody understands the business of basketball and anything can happen, but I let that stuff handle when it comes by. I don’t think too far into the future about it. I don’t stress about it either. I try to let my game do the talking for me, but also try to worry about the things I haven’t accomplished yet, like winning. This year was great, but also frustrating at the same time.”
There’s more from Chicago:
- LaVine is already looking ahead to next season and is planning offseason workouts with some of his teammates, according to Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago. He has invited rookie forward Patrick Williams, who is planning to play in the Summer League, and second-year guard Coby White. “I think that’s a good bonding and team exercise for us, especially in the offseason,” LaVine said. “You’re away from your guys, and everybody needs time away, but once you start ramping back up these are the dudes you’re going to be in battle with. I want to help them just like other players helped me when I was younger going out there and working out.”
- In his comments to the media on Monday, executive VP of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas stressed that the Bulls’ front office will remain aggressive going forward in its efforts to improve the roster, as Sam Smith of Bulls.com relays. “We will not settle for mediocrity here,” Karnišovas said. “We’re going to add talent to our roster and from there get better and come back improved and better so we don’t have to sit out another postseason.”
- Coach Billy Donovan and Karnišovas are expressing support for Lauri Markkanen, but their public comments don’t mean they’ll make a strong effort to keep him when he hits restricted free agency this summer, tweets Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic. Karnišovas called Markkanen “an essential part of our team” after a disappointing season that saw him lose his starting job.
- Karnišovas said draft-and-stash prospect Marko Simonovic is in the team’s plans for the future and will be evaluated further after his season ends, Schaefer tweets. A second-round pick in 2020, the 21-year-old center played in Serbia this year.
Bulls forward Al-Farouq Aminu will exercise his $10.2MM player option for next season, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
While most veterans with player options for 2021/22 won’t have to make their decisions until the summer, Aminu’s decision was due within seven games of Chicago’s final regular season game, notes ESPN’s Bobby Marks (via Twitter).
Acquired in late March from Orlando in the Nikola Vucevic deal, Aminu saw limited time in six games for the Bulls. He averaged 1.5 points and 3.2 rebounds in 11.2 minutes per night.
Chicago is the sixth team for the 30-year-old Aminu in his 11-year NBA career. The Clippers made him the eighth pick in the 2010 draft, and he also played for New Orleans, Dallas and Portland.
Aminu’s decision gives Chicago eight players with fully guaranteed contracts for next season, along with Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, who both have partial guarantees.
Lauri Markkanen will test the free agent waters, regardless of whether the Bulls extend a qualifying offer, he told K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.
“My thing is I think I’ve always been a team-first guy. And I think now it’s time to look at the business side of the game,” Markkanen said. “I feel like I’m only 23 years old and I have a lot of basketball ahead of me. It’s a good opportunity to look what’s out there for me. I can be a focal point. I think I have a lot more to offer.”
The qualifying offer to make Markkanen a restricted free agent is worth approximately $9MM. It’s unclear just how much the Bulls want him back, though executive VP of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas diplomatically said on Monday, “I think Lauri is an important part of our team. I’m looking forward to talking to his representation.” (Twitter link).
Markkanen turned down the Bulls’ extension offer in December when they couldn’t agree on the numbers. There was roughly a $4MM-per-year gap between the parties, according to Johnson.
Markkanen was part of the package the Bulls offered to the Pelicans for point guard Lonzo Ball at the trade deadline, Johnson adds. Those talks fell through, but Markkanen’s playing time and role was impacted by the additions of Nikola Vučević and Daniel Theis. He was moved into a reserve role, even though he considers himself a starter.
“Obviously, our team changed a lot and changed my role,” he said. “That was a little bit of an adjustment. I tried to play my role as well as I could.”
In his end-of-season comments following the Bulls‘ regular season finale on Sunday, head coach Billy Donovan admitted that he was disappointed his team didn’t make the playoffs. However, he doesn’t believe it’s fair to conclude that the midseason trade bringing Nikola Vucevic to Chicago was a mistake, as Sam Smith of Bulls.com writes.
“The one thing that I’ve seen – and I haven’t been in the NBA that long – when you look at these trades, most of the trades are trades to add. Guys coming off the bench or filling a hole. But this was a trade where immediately a guy comes in and now he’s unequivocally 1A or 1B,” Donovan said. “Those things don’t normally happen in the NBA. The whole entire thing got kind of flipped upside down.”
Donovan, who pointed out that the Bulls didn’t have much in-season practice time to properly assimilate Vucevic and the club’s other newcomers, expressed that he believes the trade will pay off in the long run. That was an opinion that Vucevic shared, as K.C. Johnson of NBA Sports Chicago tweets.
“This trade wasn’t just made for this year,” Vucevic said. “It was made for the future of the franchise.”
Here are a few more Bulls-related notes as the team looks ahead to an eventful offseason:
- As he prepares to enter a contract year, Zach LaVine said today that he loves being in Chicago and is very excited about the team’s future, according to K.C. Johnson (Twitter links). Asked about his next contract, LaVine replied, “It’s a business at the end of the day. I definitely want what I deserve.”
- A recent report suggested LaVine may be willing to sign for less than his maximum salary, but there are several factors that affect what LaVine’s “max” will be at a given time between now and the summer of 2022. Those factors include whether he signs an extension or waits for free agency, whether he earns All-NBA honors this year or next, and – if he signs an extension – whether the Bulls are willing to renegotiate his current deal to give him an immediate raise. It’s possible LaVine would be willing to take a slight discount in some of those scenarios, but not in others.
- Thaddeus Young, who has a $6MM partial guarantee on his $14.2MM salary for 2021/22, said today that he hasn’t been told whether or not he’ll be retained, but added that he’s fully committed to the Bulls and that he has had only positive discussions with management and the coaching staff (Twitter link via Johnson).
- An unrestricted free agent this summer, Garrett Temple reiterated his interest in sticking with the Bulls, tweets Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic. “I can never say what’s going to happen in free agency. I can only say what I would like to happen,” Temple said. “I really enjoyed Chicago. Even with the snow. Even during a pandemic. The organization, from what I’m hearing, took a turn for the better.”
One of the most important questions facing the Bulls this summer will be what to do with Lauri Markkanen, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. Once considered the future of the franchise, Markkanen had a decline in production in his fourth NBA season. He lost his starting job at midseason and is headed toward restricted free agency without a clear role on the team.
Markkanen has taken a lot of heat for his down year and his seemingly poor fit alongside center Nikola Vucevic, who was acquired at the trade deadline. However, coach Billy Donovan said critics need to understand how Markkanen has adapted to changing circumstances.
“You’re talking about a guy who has a shoulder injury, misses quite a bit of time, comes back after the All-Star break, plays a couple games and then we have an entirely different team and now he has to re-invent himself and find himself, that’s a lot,” Donovan said. “The one thing I’ve always asked Lauri to do is compete and play and maximize the time you’re out there for the benefit of the team. And he has always done that. And I respect and appreciate that from him.”
There’s more from Chicago:
- The Bulls expected to move into the playoff picture after shaking up their team at the deadline, but the results have been disappointing. Vucevic suggests too much may have been expected right away, according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. ‘‘When you make a trade midseason, a lot of things change, and sometimes it takes more time [to jell],’’ Vucevic said. ‘‘Unfortunately, we didn’t have that. It is disappointing we didn’t achieve our goal, so we have to be realistic and say we failed at that. But the only thing we can do is move forward and hopefully use that as motivation going into next year.’’
- Chicago currently has just seven players under contract for next season and may want to consider creating even more cap space by unloading Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, who both have modest partial guarantees, Cowley adds in a separate story. Young’s $14.19MM contract and and Satoransky’s $10MM deal will both become fully guaranteed August 1.
- Rookie forward Patrick Williams had one of his best games today, scoring a career-high 24 points in a loss to the Nets, writes Sam Smith of NBA.com. Williams said he has started looking to score more often as the season winds down. “This is definitely the Patrick that they want to see,” he said. “Of course, a little bit more that I did today. This is the player that they want me to be. It takes some getting used to, especially for me, because it’s not natural to go out there and be aggressive. But this is who I’ve gotta be in order to be the player that I want to be in this league. I’m up for the challenge.”