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Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

Bulls Notes: LaVine, Williams, Markkanen, Simonovic

May 18th, 2021 at 1:27pm CST by Arthur Hill

The bold moves that the Bulls made at the trade deadline didn’t get them into the playoffs, but star guard Zach LaVine is encouraged by the direction of the franchise, writes Jamal Collier of The Chicago Tribune. Chicago shook up its roster in late March, including a blockbuster trade to acquire All-Star center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando. The organization is hoping LaVine and Vucevic will be the foundation of the team for years to come.

LaVine is eligible for an extension next season or he could opt for free agency in 2022. Either way, it appears he wants to remain with the franchise.

“Obviously with the trade, it made us a lot better, and I loved it,” LaVine said. “I love it here in Chicago. And I think everybody understands the business of basketball and anything can happen, but I let that stuff handle when it comes by. I don’t think too far into the future about it. I don’t stress about it either. I try to let my game do the talking for me, but also try to worry about the things I haven’t accomplished yet, like winning. This year was great, but also frustrating at the same time.”

There’s more from Chicago:

LaVine is already looking ahead to next season and is planning offseason workouts with some of his teammates, according to Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago. He has invited rookie forward Patrick Williams, who is planning to play in the Summer League, and second-year guard Coby White. “I think that’s a good bonding and team exercise for us, especially in the offseason,” LaVine said. “You’re away from your guys, and everybody needs time away, but once you start ramping back up these are the dudes you’re going to be in battle with. I want to help them just like other players helped me when I was younger going out there and working out.”
In his comments to the media on Monday, executive VP of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas stressed that the Bulls’ front office will remain aggressive going forward in its efforts to improve the roster, as Sam Smith of Bulls.com relays. “We will not settle for mediocrity here,” Karnišovas said. “We’re going to add talent to our roster and from there get better and come back improved and better so we don’t have to sit out another postseason.”
Coach Billy Donovan and Karnišovas are expressing support for Lauri Markkanen, but their public comments don’t mean they’ll make a strong effort to keep him when he hits restricted free agency this summer, tweets Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic. Karnišovas called Markkanen “an essential part of our team” after a disappointing season that saw him lose his starting job.
Karnišovas said draft-and-stash prospect Marko Simonovic is in the team’s plans for the future and will be evaluated further after his season ends, Schaefer tweets. A second-round pick in 2020, the 21-year-old center played in Serbia this year.

Bulls’ Al-Farouq Aminu Opting In For 2021/22

May 18th, 2021 at 12:56pm CST by Arthur Hill

Bulls forward Al-Farouq Aminu will exercise his $10.2MM player option for next season, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

While most veterans with player options for 2021/22 won’t have to make their decisions until the summer, Aminu’s decision was due within seven games of Chicago’s final regular season game, notes ESPN’s Bobby Marks (via Twitter).

Acquired in late March from Orlando in the Nikola Vucevic deal, Aminu saw limited time in six games for the Bulls. He averaged 1.5 points and 3.2 rebounds in 11.2 minutes per night.

Chicago is the sixth team for the 30-year-old Aminu in his 11-year NBA career. The Clippers made him the eighth pick in the 2010 draft, and he also played for New Orleans, Dallas and Portland.

Aminu’s decision gives Chicago eight players with fully guaranteed contracts for next season, along with Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, who both have partial guarantees.

Lauri Markkanen Will Explore Free Agent Options

May 17th, 2021 at 5:20pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Lauri Markkanen will test the free agent waters, regardless of whether the Bulls extend a qualifying offer, he told K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.

“My thing is I think I’ve always been a team-first guy. And I think now it’s time to look at the business side of the game,” Markkanen said. “I feel like I’m only 23 years old and I have a lot of basketball ahead of me. It’s a good opportunity to look what’s out there for me. I can be a focal point. I think I have a lot more to offer.”

The qualifying offer to make Markkanen a restricted free agent is worth approximately $9MM. It’s unclear just how much the Bulls want him back, though executive VP of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas diplomatically said on Monday, “I think Lauri is an important part of our team. I’m looking forward to talking to his representation.” (Twitter link).

Markkanen turned down the Bulls’ extension offer in December when they couldn’t agree on the numbers. There was roughly a $4MM-per-year gap between the parties, according to Johnson.

Markkanen was part of the package the Bulls offered to the Pelicans for point guard Lonzo Ball at the trade deadline, Johnson adds. Those talks fell through, but Markkanen’s playing time and role was impacted by the additions of Nikola Vučević and Daniel Theis. He was moved into a reserve role, even though he considers himself a starter.

“Obviously, our team changed a lot and changed my role,” he said. “That was a little bit of an adjustment. I tried to play my role as well as I could.”

Bulls Notes: Vucevic, LaVine, Young, Temple

May 17th, 2021 at 1:59pm CST by Luke Adams

In his end-of-season comments following the Bulls‘ regular season finale on Sunday, head coach Billy Donovan admitted that he was disappointed his team didn’t make the playoffs. However, he doesn’t believe it’s fair to conclude that the midseason trade bringing Nikola Vucevic to Chicago was a mistake, as Sam Smith of Bulls.com writes.

“The one thing that I’ve seen – and I haven’t been in the NBA that long – when you look at these trades, most of the trades are trades to add. Guys coming off the bench or filling a hole. But this was a trade where immediately a guy comes in and now he’s unequivocally 1A or 1B,” Donovan said. “Those things don’t normally happen in the NBA. The whole entire thing got kind of flipped upside down.”

Donovan, who pointed out that the Bulls didn’t have much in-season practice time to properly assimilate Vucevic and the club’s other newcomers, expressed that he believes the trade will pay off in the long run. That was an opinion that Vucevic shared, as K.C. Johnson of NBA Sports Chicago tweets.

“This trade wasn’t just made for this year,” Vucevic said. “It was made for the future of the franchise.”

Here are a few more Bulls-related notes as the team looks ahead to an eventful offseason:

As he prepares to enter a contract year, Zach LaVine said today that he loves being in Chicago and is very excited about the team’s future, according to K.C. Johnson (Twitter links). Asked about his next contract, LaVine replied, “It’s a business at the end of the day. I definitely want what I deserve.”
A recent report suggested LaVine may be willing to sign for less than his maximum salary, but there are several factors that affect what LaVine’s “max” will be at a given time between now and the summer of 2022. Those factors include whether he signs an extension or waits for free agency, whether he earns All-NBA honors this year or next, and – if he signs an extension – whether the Bulls are willing to renegotiate his current deal to give him an immediate raise. It’s possible LaVine would be willing to take a slight discount in some of those scenarios, but not in others.
Thaddeus Young, who has a $6MM partial guarantee on his $14.2MM salary for 2021/22, said today that he hasn’t been told whether or not he’ll be retained, but added that he’s fully committed to the Bulls and that he has had only positive discussions with management and the coaching staff (Twitter link via Johnson).
An unrestricted free agent this summer, Garrett Temple reiterated his interest in sticking with the Bulls, tweets Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic. “I can never say what’s going to happen in free agency. I can only say what I would like to happen,” Temple said. “I really enjoyed Chicago. Even with the snow. Even during a pandemic. The organization, from what I’m hearing, took a turn for the better.”

Bulls Notes: Markkanen, Vucevic, Young, Williams

May 15th, 2021 at 9:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

One of the most important questions facing the Bulls this summer will be what to do with Lauri Markkanen, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. Once considered the future of the franchise, Markkanen had a decline in production in his fourth NBA season. He lost his starting job at midseason and is headed toward restricted free agency without a clear role on the team.

Markkanen has taken a lot of heat for his down year and his seemingly poor fit alongside center Nikola Vucevic, who was acquired at the trade deadline. However, coach Billy Donovan said critics need to understand how Markkanen has adapted to changing circumstances.

“You’re talking about a guy who has a shoulder injury, misses quite a bit of time, comes back after the All-Star break, plays a couple games and then we have an entirely different team and now he has to re-invent himself and find himself, that’s a lot,” Donovan said. “The one thing I’ve always asked Lauri to do is compete and play and maximize the time you’re out there for the benefit of the team. And he has always done that. And I respect and appreciate that from him.”

There’s more from Chicago:

The Bulls expected to move into the playoff picture after shaking up their team at the deadline, but the results have been disappointing. Vucevic suggests too much may have been expected right away, according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. ‘‘When you make a trade midseason, a lot of things change, and sometimes it takes more time [to jell],’’ Vucevic said. ‘‘Unfortunately, we didn’t have that. It is disappointing we didn’t achieve our goal, so we have to be realistic and say we failed at that. But the only thing we can do is move forward and hopefully use that as motivation going into next year.’’
Chicago currently has just seven players under contract for next season and may want to consider creating even more cap space by unloading Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, who both have modest partial guarantees, Cowley adds in a separate story. Young’s $14.19MM contract and and Satoransky’s $10MM deal will both become fully guaranteed August 1.
Rookie forward Patrick Williams had one of his best games today, scoring a career-high 24 points in a loss to the Nets, writes Sam Smith of NBA.com. Williams said he has started looking to score more often as the season winds down. “This is definitely the Patrick that they want to see,” he said. “Of course, a little bit more that I did today. This is the player that they want me to be. It takes some getting used to, especially for me, because it’s not natural to go out there and be aggressive. But this is who I’ve gotta be in order to be the player that I want to be in this league. I’m up for the challenge.”

Central Notes: White, Varejao, Turner, Holiday

May 14th, 2021 at 10:56am CST by Arthur Hill

The Bulls still may target a point guard in free agency this summer, but Coby White is showing indications that he can handle the job, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. While it has taken a while for White to adjust to the NBA, the 21-year-old is making progress at the end of his second season. He had 17 points and 10 assists Thursday night, marking his first game with double-digit assists since January 10.

White has returned to the starting lineup after Tomas Satoransky took over as the starting point guard for 15 games. Coach Billy Donovan believes White has benefited from playing alongside center Nikola Vucevic, who was acquired at the trade deadline, and a slower pace has also worked to White’s advantage.

“I’ve always had perseverance,” White said. “But this year, with ups and downs and being pushed constantly, from the coaching staff to front office to my teammates, I think for me learning to play the point guard position at a high level in the NBA, which is continuing to stay focused and continuing to stay within yourself.”

There’s more from the Central Division:

The Cavaliers have received a hardship exception continuation to sign Anderson Varejao for the rest of the season, tweets Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Varejao’s first 10-day day contract has expired, but he has re-signed for the season’s final three days. This was Cleveland’s plan from the time Varejao was added to the roster, Fedor adds.
Even though he’s a long shot for the award, Pacers center Myles Turner stated his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors Thursday night, according to J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star. Turner leads the league with 3.4 blocked shots per game, but he has missed 23 games due to injury and has no timetable to return. “I understand defense isn’t all about blocks,” Turner said. “That’s something I do best. After this season I’m going to lead the league in blocks in two out of the last three years. I defend the perimeter. I’m one of the better pick-and-roll defenders in the league. My team needs me out there. When I’m not out there, the difference is glaring.”
Bucks guard Jrue Holiday earned a $255K bonus by playing in his 58th game of the season Thursday night, tweets Bobby Marks of ESPN. Holiday secured another bonus earlier this week for total minutes played.

Could LaVine Take Less Than Max To Stick With Bulls?

May 13th, 2021 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

While there has been a belief that Zach LaVine will look to maximize his earnings on his next contract, several sources who spoke to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times believe LaVine could be persuaded to take a slight discount if the Bulls continue adding quality players around him. Still, a standard extension for LaVine could only be worth up to about $105MM over four years, so he seems unlikely to accept such a deal — Chicago could offer him significantly more in a renegotiation or once he reaches free agency.

Lowe’s Latest: K. Williams, Payne, Monk, Burks, Hartenstein

May 12th, 2021 at 12:23pm CST by Luke Adams

For the 10th year in a row, ESPN’s Zach Lowe has named his end-of-season “Luke Walton All-Stars,” honoring overlooked rotation players and NBA journeymen who have impressed him most over the course of the year.

Nets guard Bruce Brown, Warriors forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Raptors teammates Yuta Watanabe and DeAndre’ Bembry are among the players who made Lowe’s list, which also includes a handful of interesting tidbits on some of his choices. Here are a few highlights:

Thunder forward Kenrich Williams, who resisted signing a two-way contract multiple times earlier in his career, has enjoyed a breakout year in Oklahoma City. Sources tell Lowe that several playoff teams expressed trade interest in Williams prior to March’s deadline, but he wanted to remain in OKC, where he’s under contract for two more years (both non-guaranteed).
Suns guard Cameron Payne told Lowe that he thought his NBA career might be over in 2020, when the Mavericks opted to sign Trey Burke over him for the summer restart after he had played well for Dallas’ G League affiliate. However, he got an opportunity shortly thereafter with Phoenix, in large part because head coach Monty Williams had gotten to know him during their time with the Thunder.
Another former first-round pick, Hornets guard Malik Monk, was concerned about his NBA career last year as well, following his suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy, his brother Marcus Monk told Lowe. The former Kentucky standout has enjoyed a career year while trying to let go of tension about his role, Lowe writes. “Guys who have success in college think the NBA is going to go a certain way,” Marcus said. “You think you’re invincible. Malik fell victim to that. I’m proud of how he matured.”
Before he signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Knicks last fall, Alec Burks discussed a deal with the Bulls, according to Lowe. Burks’ familiarity with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant from their time in Utah was a factor in his decision to choose New York.
After an underwhelming stint in Denver, Isaiah Hartenstein has played well for the Cavaliers, averaging 8.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 16 games (17.9 MPG). Lowe says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hartenstein turns down his minimum-salary player option for 2021/22 to seek a new deal.

Crowded All-NBA Field Will Impact Several Contract Situations

May 11th, 2021 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

When Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer shared his early All-NBA picks this week, he rightly pointed out that limiting the field to 15 players will leave a number of worthy candidates on the outside looking in. O’Connor had to exclude worthy contenders such as Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving from his three All-NBA teams.

Among the other players left off the top 15 by O’Connor were Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox. Those players are especially notable because an All-NBA spot this season would either substantially increase the value of the contract extensions they signed last offseason or would put them in line for a significantly more lucrative extension this summer.

Jayson Tatum, who earned a spot on O’Connor’s All-NBA Third Team, is in the same boat. Like Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox, he signed a rookie scale extension that includes Rose Rule language, which could bump his starting salary from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap.

Here are how those players, who signed five-year, maximum-salary contract extensions last offseason, will be affected by whether or not they earn All-NBA honors. These are projected values based on a 3% salary cap increase.

Player	No All-NBA	All-NBA
Donovan Mitchell	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Jayson Tatum	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Bam Adebayo	$163,000,590	$185,820,675 (First Team only)
De’Aaron Fox	$163,000,590	$169,522,180 (Third Team) *

* Fox’s deal would be worth $182,560,660 if he makes the All-NBA Second Team and $195,600,710 if he makes the First Team.

Fox probably has no chance at making an All-NBA team, given the competition at guard and the Kings’ spot in the standings. The other three players here have better cases, but Adebayo is likely a long shot, making Mitchell and Tatum the most realistic candidates. They’d only need to sneak onto the Third Team to increase the projected value of their new five-year deals by more than $32MM.

As O’Connor writes, Tatum has a clearer path to an All-NBA spot than Mitchell based on his position. The guard spot is absolutely stacked this season — Mitchell would have to beat out at least one of Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, and James Harden, as well as all the guards mentioned at the top of this story. As good as he’s been, he may be left out.

While Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox have already negotiated “super-max” language into their contracts and are now trying to guarantee a salary increase by earning All-NBA honors, a handful of players will become eligible for a higher maximum salary on a new extension if they make an All-NBA team this year. An All-NBA spot would either make them eligible for a Rose Rule extension or a Designated Veteran Extension.

Here are those players, along with the projected contract extension they’d become eligible for with an All-NBA nod. These projections are on the conservative side, since they’re based on annual salary cap increases of just 3%.

Player	Max extension with All-NBA spot	Year it would begin
Nikola Jokic	Five years, $242,098,25	2023/24 *
Joel Embiid	Four years, $187,000,032	2023/24
Zach LaVine	Five years, $235,046,855	2022/23
Luka Doncic	Five years, $201,468,730	2022/23

* Jokic would have to wait until the 2022 offseason to sign a super-max extension. The others could sign extensions during the 2021 offseason.

Embiid is still under contract for two more years beyond 2020/21, which is why he’d only be able to tack on four new years to his current deal instead of five. Jokic is in a similar spot, but because he’ll only have six years of NBA service at the end of this season, he’d have to wait until 2022 to officially sign an extension, at which point he’d be eligible for five new years instead of just four.

Doncic’s potential extension has the lowest average value of any of these hypothetical deals because he’d only be eligible for a starting salary worth 30% of the cap, instead of 35%, due to his limited years of NBA service.

MVP candidates Jokic, Embiid, and Doncic all look like pretty safe bets to make an All-NBA team this spring, and I imagine the Nuggets, Sixers, and Mavericks will be ready to put super-max extension offers on the table for their respective stars as soon as they’re eligible to sign them.

As for LaVine, he likely won’t make an All-NBA team, which may be a relief for the Bulls — deciding whether or not to offer LaVine a standard maximum contract could be a difficult decision in its own right. If he were eligible for a super-max, that would make negotiations even more challenging.

Assuming LaVine doesn’t earn All-NBA honors, he’d only be eligible for a four-year, $104.83MM extension this offseason. However, the Bulls could go higher than that if they renegotiate his 2021/22 salary using their cap room, or if they wait until the 2022 offseason — as a free agent, LaVine would be eligible for a five-year contract worth up to $201.47MM (projection based on 3% annual cap increases) if he re-signs with Chicago, even without All-NBA honors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.