Bulls Rumors

2020 NBA Draft Lottery Update

The 2020 NBA draft lottery, originally scheduled for May 19, will now take place on August 20, two weeks from today. Besides happening three months later than usual, this year’s lottery also figures to look a little different, since the ongoing coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly make it impossible for the NBA to bring representatives from the bottom 14 teams to a single location.

As we wait to see what the league has in mind for this year’s event, here are a few updates and reminders on the 2020 NBA draft lottery:


The bottom eight teams are already locked into their lottery spots

Much has been made in the last 24 hours about the Wizards (24-44), who are participating in the NBA’s summer restart, slipping below the inactive Hornets (23-42) in the Eastern Conference standings.

Fortunately for Hornets fans – and unfortunately for Wizards backers – the lottery odds for those two teams won’t hinge on which team finishes with the better overall record. For the NBA’s bottom eight teams, one silver lining of not getting an invite to Orlando this summer for the restart is that their spot in the top eight of the lottery has been locked in, based on the league standings as of March 11.

The Hornets will have the eighth-best odds and the Bulls will have the seventh-best odds even if the Wizards go 0-8 this summer and fall below both teams in the standings.


The race for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference could impact the lottery odds

With the non-Orlando teams frozen in the top eight lottery positions, the other six spots will be determined by two factors:

  • Which six teams in Orlando don’t make the playoffs.
  • What their records were as of March 11.

This is great news for a team like Phoenix. Having won their first three games in Orlando – as the Grizzlies lost their first four – the Suns are very much alive in the race for the No. 8 seed in the West. It will still take a strong finish and some luck for the Suns to qualify for a play-in tournament, but let’s suppose they do.

In that scenario, if the Suns win the play-in tournament and earn a postseason spot, their first-round pick would be 15th overall, best among the playoff teams, since they entered the hiatus with a 26-39 record, worse than Orlando or Brooklyn.

If they were to lose a play-in tournament, Phoenix would end up with the 10th-best lottery odds, ahead of the rest of Orlando’s non-playoff teams besides the Wizards, who were the only one of the 22 invited teams with a worse record than the Suns as of March 11.

Essentially, if you want to determine the back half of the lottery standings, you just have to sort the 22 teams in Orlando by their March 11 records, from worst to first, then remove the 16 teams that end up in the playoffs.


The Grizzlies could theoretically still keep their first-round pick

The Grizzlies owe their 2020 first-round pick to the Celtics, but it includes top-six protection.

As long as Memphis makes the playoffs, that protection doesn’t really matter — Boston would receive the pick. However, with the Grizzlies’ hold on the No. 8 seed slipping, there’s still an outside chance that they could keep the pick.

Let’s say Memphis falls out of the No. 8 spot and either loses a play-in tournament or altogether misses out on qualifying for a play-in. In that scenario, the Grizzlies would enter the lottery with the 14th-best odds, since they had a better record on March 11 than any of their fellow lottery teams. That would give them a 2.4% chance at moving into the top four, where their pick would be protected.

Those aren’t good odds. In all likelihood, missing the playoffs would just mean the Grizzlies sent the Celtics the No. 14 pick instead of a selection in the 15-17 range. Still, the outside chance at another top pick would at least be a small silver lining if Memphis can’t grab that No. 8 spot. If the Grizzlies do hang onto this year’s pick, they’d owe Boston an unprotected first-rounder in 2021.

Over in the East, the Nets owe a lottery-protected pick to the Timberwolves and would keep it if they fall out of the postseason. However, the Wizards’ struggles have essentially ruled out that possibility. One more Brooklyn win or Washington loss will ensure that the Nets make the playoffs and send their pick to Minnesota.


Current lottery odds

Listed here are the odds for the teams not invited to Orlando, who will hold the top eight spots in the lottery standings.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0

The tentative odds for the bottom six spots, assuming the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, can be found right here.


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Growing Momentum For Jim Boylen To Keep Job?

There appears to be strong growing momentum for Bulls head coach Jim Boylen to retain his current position, according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times, who reports that financial considerations are expected to play a key role in the decision.

Nearly three months ago, Cowley reported that new Bulls executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley were believed to be leaning toward making a head coaching change after receiving a “mixed bag” of feedback on Boylen from Bulls players. Cowley writes today that the team’s top basketball operations execs had even reached out through back-channels to potential candidates such as Sixers assistant Ime Udoka and Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin.

However, the Bulls’ financial landscape has changed over the last few months. Team owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who doesn’t have a reputation for aggressive spending, has claimed that financial losses for the Bulls and his Chicago White Sox are “in the nine figures.” There’s also ongoing uncertainty about what the 2020/21 NBA season will look like and how the coronavirus pandemic may continue to impact team and league revenues.

Although he cautions that the situation is fluid, Cowley suggests that the Bulls’ financial situation has greatly increased the chances of Boylen’s return. It doesn’t help matters that there are still no plans in place to have the NBA’s bottom eight teams conduct some form of organized offseason activites. Karnisovas has previously spoken about wanting to evaluate Boylen in such a setting, but he may not get an opportunity to do so.

ESPN reported last month that the financial strain caused by the pandemic may make teams around the league less inclined to change coaches this offseason, so the latest update on Boylen doesn’t come as a huge surprise.

Still, as Cowley rightly points out (via Twitter), it’s not as if replacing Boylen with a first-time coach like Udoka or Griffin would be exorbitantly costly for the franchise, at least in relative terms. Boylen is making just $1.6MM and a first-time coach could potentially be hired for a salary in the $2.5MM range. The league’s highest-paid coaches – Doc Rivers and Gregg Popovich – are reportedly earning $10MM+ per year.

Second Bubble For NBA’s Bottom Eight Teams Now Appears Unlikely

A report one month ago suggested that the NBA appeared likely to create a second campus/bubble environment in Chicago for the league’s bottom eight teams. The idea was for those teams left out of the Orlando restart to spend some time with their players during the offseason, conducting mini-training camps and inter-squad games in a single location.

However, according to Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic, there’s a growing belief that a second bubble site won’t happen. The Athletic’s duo reports that there’s also pessimism about those bottom eight teams getting to hold in-market minicamps for group workouts.

“There’s nothing happening,” said one general manager following a Tuesday call with the eight GMs and various league officials. “It’s a shame. It’s a huge detriment to these eight franchises that were left behind.”

With the NBA focusing on the success of the Orlando restart, discussions about plans for the bottom eight teams – the Warriors, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Knicks, and Hornets – have been inconsistent. As recently as last week, there seemed to be momentum building toward a plan to allow those clubs to hold practices and workouts, but that momentum has apparently stalled.

According to Charania and Amick, the National Basketball Players Association has safety concerns related to the idea of a second bubble amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. There are also financial and logistical complications associated with creating a smaller-scale version of the NBA’s Walt Disney World campus.

Charania and Amick suggest that the NBPA is more open to the idea of creating smaller, in-market bubbles for teams to host individual mini-camps in their respective cities. But it sounds as if that won’t happen by mid-August as initially hoped, if it happens at all.

The eight teams left out of the Orlando restart believe they’re at a potential competitive disadvantage by missing out on the player and culture development that other teams are getting this summer, sources tell The Athletic. Those clubs are expected to continue pushing for some form of offseason team activities to re-engage players and coaches. For now, they’re only permitted to hold 1-on-0 workouts at their practice facilities, with limited coach involvement.

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  • New Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas hasn’t pushed ownership for a coaching change and that seems like a wise move, Johnson opines. Jim Boylen seems open to tweaking his offensive system and management has sought his input on player development strategies, Johnson continues. Karnisovas has a good working relationship with Boylen’s staff, Johnson adds.
  • The Athletic’s John Hollinger takes an opposing viewpoint. He sees the lack of progress in the Bulls’ head coaching search as a head-scratcher, believing that Boylen isn’t Karnisovas’ first choice. It’s possible that Chicago’s owners simply doesn’t want to pay off Boylen and then dole out more money for a new head coach, or that the delayed start of next season has made them procrastinate. But the franchise is isn’t giving the next coach a chance to hit the ground running this winter, Hollinger adds.

NBA Nears Agreement On Workouts For Teams Not In Orlando

The NBA is close to finalizing plans for the eight teams not in Orlando to hold practices and group workouts, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer reports.

Under the proposal, those teams would be allowed a week of practice at their home facilities, beginning the second week of August. They might also conduct two weeks of group workouts and scrimmages at two of those sites.

The plan would have to be approved by the National Basketball Players Association but talks have progressed to point where an announcement could be made next week, according to Bonnell. If those teams do agree to the two-week workout and scrimmage sessions, they would be subject to the same safety protocols as the players at the Orlando campus.

The teams not currently in Orlando are the Hornets, Pistons, Knicks, Bulls, Timberwolves, Hawks, Cavaliers and Warriors.

Many of those teams have been pushing for some sort of organized activities, feeling they’re at a competitive disadvantage compared to the teams on the Orlando campus. However, the Knicks were reportedly reluctant to hold scrimmages against other clubs since they have numerous free agents on their roster.

Currently, players on those teams are only allowed to work on individual skills development, Bonnell notes.

Knicks, Nets Among Teams Keeping Eye On Zach LaVine

The Knicks and Nets are among the teams who have been monitoring Zach LaVine‘s situation in Chicago, according to Ian Begley of SNY.tv, who reports that both New York and Brooklyn have done “background work” on the Bulls guard.

LaVine remains under contract for an additional two years beyond this season, so he won’t be reaching free agency anytime soon. However, with no star players known to be available on the trade market for the time being, teams like the Knicks and Nets are keeping an eye on players who could conceivably become available in trade talks within the next year or two.

LaVine, a six-year veteran, has never made the playoffs with the Timberwolves or the Bulls, and suggested in March that he was “upset” with Chicago’s performance in 2019/20.

Disgruntled stars on lottery teams often make the best trade candidates, though in LaVine’s case, it seems likely that he’ll want to give the new Bulls regime a chance to improve the roster before making any decisions about his future. The team hired Arturas Karnisovas as president of basketball operations and Marc Eversley as general manager in the spring.

According to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago (Twitter link), LaVine was in Chicago two weeks ago and had a “positive” visit with the Bulls’ new decision-makers. Johnson adds that while they’ll likely be willing to listen to any ideas, Karnisovas and Eversley appear focused on maximizing the roster’s potential for next season — not on trading the club’s leading scorer.

The front office’s decision on head coach Jim Boylen is also worth keeping an eye on in relation to LaVine’s situation, since he and Boylen haven’t always seen eye-to-eye. Sources have told Marc Berman of The New York Post that the Bulls appear likely to stand pat with Boylen for now.

LaVine had a career year in ’19/20 before the coronavirus pandemic prematurely ended Chicago’s season. He averaged 25.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.2 APG on .450/.380/.802 shooting in 60 games (34.8 MPG).

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