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One Key Question Surrounding Kris Dunn’s Free Agency

June 10th, 2020 at 2:39pm CST by Luke Adams

Bulls guard Kris Dunn won’t be one of this offseason’s marquee free agents, and a possible depressed market as a result of the coronavirus pandemic may limit his earning potential. However, the former first-round pick should be an intriguing option for teams looking to improve their backcourt defense.

Dunn was Chicago’s best perimeter defender in 2019/20 making a legit case for an All-Defense nod as he led all qualified players with 2.9 steals per 36 minutes. He also wasn’t a major offensive liability, reducing his turnovers to 1.3 per game and posting a career-best .444 FG% as his usage rate declined.

However, there’s one key question looming over Dunn’s free agency that may dictate how his market plays out and what sort of deal he ends up signing. As a 2016 first-round pick, he’s eligible for restricted free agency this offseason, but the Bulls will have to tender him a qualifying offer in order to make him restricted, and the amount of that QO remains up in the air.

The amount of Dunn’s qualifying offer – which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the Bulls the right of first refusal – hinges on whether or not he has met the starter criteria. If he has met the starter criteria, his QO will be worth $7,091,457. If he falls short, the value of the QO dips to $4,642,800.

We provide more details on the starter criteria in our glossary entry on the subject, but in Dunn’s case, it’s important to know that he would have met the starter criteria if he had started a total of 82 games over the last two seasons (an average of 41 per season). After starting 44 games in 2018/19, Dunn started just 32 games this year, for a total of 76.

However, the Bulls will only end up playing a total of 65 regular season games in 2019/20 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the suspension of the season. Dunn’s camp could argue that his 32 starts should be prorated over a full 82-game schedule — in that case, he’d be credited for a total of 40 starts, increasing his two-year total to 84 and meeting the starter criteria.

The Bulls, on the other hand, could rightly argue that a knee injury which sidelined Dunn before the season was suspended was expected to keep him out of action for the rest of the club’s season if it had ended on April 15, as initially expected. In other words, there would have been no way for him to get those last few starts he was “projected” for.

It’s a tricky situation, and I’m not sure how the NBA will handle it. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks wrote recently, requirements for certain incentives and bonuses are expected to be prorated to account for the shortened season to make things fair to players who fell just short of those incentives and would’ve met them given a full 82 games. But the starter criteria is a separate issue, and there are reasonable arguments on both sides — especially since the Bulls may not have started Dunn again even if he’d been able to return from his injury.

For a restricted free agent like Brandon Ingram, who most certainly won’t accept his qualifying offer, this would be a non-issue. But for the Bulls and Dunn, the difference between a $4.6MM qualifying offer and one worth $7.1MM is significant, especially since there’s not expected to be a ton of league-wide money available for free agents this offseason.

Would the Bulls still tender Dunn a qualifying offer if the price is $7.1MM? If not, the 26-year-old would become an unrestricted free agent. Would Dunn accept a $7.1MM qualifying offer if it’s on the table? I don’t think that’s out of the question, considering it’s not far off from a mid-level salary. Conversely, I think the Bulls would be far more inclined to offer a $4.6MM QO, while Dunn would be less likely to accept it.

It’s not unreasonable to believe that a $2.5MM difference in potential qualifying offers could reshape what Dunn’s free agency looks like, so it’ll be fascinating to see how the NBA and NBPA determine that price point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Summer Transaction Window Will Be Open For All 30 Teams

June 8th, 2020 at 11:18am CST by Luke Adams

Over the weekend, we learned that the NBA intends to give teams a brief window, likely from June 22 to July 1, to convert two-way players to standard deals and otherwise tweak their 15-man rosters. Today, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports (via Twitter) that the transaction window at the end of June will be open for all 30 teams, not just the 22 resuming play in Orlando.

This is an important point because in a typical season, lottery-bound teams also make roster moves during the final week or two of play, an option that wasn’t available this April. Instead of setting their rosters for the postseason, those clubs at the bottom of the standings are looking ahead to the offseason and the following year, signing players to multiyear deals in the hopes that they’ll become low-cost contributors down the road.

The most obvious example of this form of transaction last season was provided by the Heat, who missed the playoffs but were active during the final week of the season, signing Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson to three-year contracts. The first “year” of those deals only technically lasted a day or two last April, but now Miami has Nunn and Robinson locked up on minimum-salary deals through 2020/21.

Of course, not every lottery-bound team will strike gold with late-season, multiyear signings like Miami did with Nunn and Robinson. But it’s still common for those clubs to use any open roster spots to add players who can be auditioned during the summer and fall.

This summer, as ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets, teams like the Hornets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Timberwolves, and Warriors have available roster spots and could be looking to fill out their 15-man squads with newly-signed players (or converted two-way players). Based on Woj’s report, it sounds like they’ll have at least a week to do so at the end of June. The Knicks, Bulls, and Hawks have full rosters but would also be permitted to make changes if they so choose.

[RELATED: NBA Roster Counts For 2019/20]

When Wojnarowski and Marks reported over the weekend on the NBA’s potential pre-offseason transaction window, they noted that only players who were in the NBA, in the G League, or on training camp deals during the 2019/20 season were expected to be eligible. However, I wouldn’t expect that restriction to apply to the eight teams that won’t be resuming play in Orlando.

Bulls Notes: Karnisovas, Boylen, Markkanen, LaVine

June 6th, 2020 at 5:32pm CST by Arthur Hill

Even though rumors are heating up about possible replacements for Bulls coach Jim Boylen, new executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas indicated that the decision won’t be a quick one, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. As we relayed this morning, one report this week indicated that Sixers assistant Ime Udoka is the front-runner to replace Boylen, but Karnisovas said today on a conference call with reporters that many elements will play into the decision.

“Coaching in the league is very difficult. To make a decision about coaching is really hard. It’s probably the hardest thing for executives,” he said. “So I look at a lot of aspects. I’ve had numerous conversations. That said, I’d like to be in a building, to be in practices, to be around the coaching staff in meetings. We’re looking forward to getting in the video room together, analyze the games, to watch games together. Talking to players and coaches, obviously everyone is disappointed with the results last year. They (the Bulls) definitely underperformed. Watching games, I’m excited to watch because there’s a lot of talent on this team. In order for me to keep players and coaches accountable, I have to have personal relationships with them. That’s what I need to cultivate. That’s my objective this offseason.”

There’s more from Chicago:

Karnisovas said no more front office changes are planned, which means associate general manager Brian Hagen, assistant general manager Steve Weinman and director of pro personnel Jim Paxson will all be retained, Johnson adds in the same piece.
Karnisovas had frequent discussions with Lauri Markkanen during the hiatus and believes the third-year forward can turn things around after a disappointing season, Johnson notes in a separate story. Although Karnisovas didn’t address the topic in the conference call, Markkanen will be eligible for an extension when the offseason begins. “He’s eager to get back to the gym and improve,” Karnisovas said. “He was disappointed by the overall result (last season). Every player wants to win. He’s about winning, as well. Our objective is to get the best version of Lauri next year.”
Zach LaVine is disappointed that the Bulls weren’t able to qualify for the resumption of the season in Orlando, writes Eric Woodyward of ESPN. Chicago posted a 22-43 record before the shutdown — 11th in the East and eight games out of a playoff spot — which LaVine sees as an indication that bold steps must be taken to improve. “We weren’t even good enough to get to the play-in game,” he said, “so it’s upsetting and it just shows that we’ve got to do a lot of things differently to get ourselves that recognition to get to that spot.”

Idle Teams Consider Mini-Summer League

June 6th, 2020 at 3:32pm CST by Arthur Hill

The teams that won’t be invited to Orlando for the resumption of the NBA season are discussing activities to make sure their players won’t be left without games for nine months, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. That plan could involve training camps, followed by a small summer league.

Wojnarowski lists seven teams — the Hawks, Hornets, Bulls, Cavaliers, Pistons, Timberwolves and Knicks — that are supporting a plan to hold joint practices as preparation for summer league games in August. Sources tell him that Detroit and Cleveland have talked about having practices together before a “mini-pod” of games.

Ideas presented by the teams, according to Woj’s sources, include two weeks of workouts in July, regional mini-camps in August with several days of combined practices and approximately three games on television, then organized team activities in mid-September.

Also, the teams left out of Orlando are seeking permission from the NBA to start next season’s training camp a week to 10 days ahead of everyone else. Those teams are concerned that the long layoff will affect the development of their younger players, not only due to the lack of games but because of the long separation from team facilities and the structured life in the NBA.

“Nine months is too long without organized basketball,” Hawks owner Tony Ressler said. “We just can’t risk that. I think the league has heard that loud and clear. We are pushing to remain competitive. That’s what our players want. We were desperate to have something that helps us to stay competitive.”

“Not playing for eight months puts us in a competitive disadvantage, but again, I think there are creative ways to do so,” adds new Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas. “Collectively, I think these eight teams we’re getting now on calls and we have conversations of how we can develop our players and how we can have structure in place to get some practicing and possibly some scrimmaging in the offseason to catch up to the teams that are going to be playing.”

Wojnarowski points out that any games, camps or other activities would have to be negotiated by the league and the players union because they’re not part of the collective bargaining agreement. Sources tell ESPN that the league office has promised the teams it will work with them to find a solution.

Ime Udoka Reportedly ‘Frontrunner’ To Be Bulls’ Next Coach

June 6th, 2020 at 11:45am CST by marksuleymanov

Sixers assistant coach Ime Udoka is currently the favorite to become the Bulls‘ next head coach, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.

With the NBA’s 22-team format for resuming the 2019/20 campaign approved, Chicago is now in the offseason stage, as the club will not travel to Orlando. As we relayed last month, current head coach Jim Boylen appears to be on the hot seat, and Bulls ownership have indicated they’ll approve a new hire should Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley choose to make a change.

Udoka, 42, enjoyed a seven-year NBA career that ended in 2011 after suiting up for the Spurs, Trail Blazers, Kings, Knicks and Lakers. He was part of Gregg Popovich‘s staff in San Antonio for seven seasons before joining the Sixers. Udoka was also interviewed for head coach with the Cavaliers before the job was given to John Beilen.

Chicago has failed to crack 30 wins since 2017, the same year they made their most recent playoff appearance. Under Boylen, the Bulls were 22-43 before the coronavirus pandemic suspended play. As Chicago readies for next season, hiring a coach that can take an inexperienced team with youth and potential back into contention will be key.

Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin will also be “in the picture” for the Bulls if they replace Boylen, Cowley notes, echoing what we heard earlier this spring.

With 2019/20 Officially Over, Bulls Look To Offseason Questions

June 4th, 2020 at 9:05pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Now that the Bulls have been officially excluded from the NBA’s 22-team resumption, the team will naturally turn their attention to an exciting offseason, per KC Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. This will mark Chicago’s first offseason with Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley at the helm of the team’s front office. Karnisovas and Bulls president and COO Michael Reinsdorf both released official statements expressing disappointment at not getting to partake in the conclusion of the season from a player development perspective.

Latest On The NBA’s Lottery Plans

June 3rd, 2020 at 9:13pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA is expected to finalize a proposal on Thursday that will send 22 teams to Orlando in order to finish out the season. It will be a unique experience for a number of reasons — one interesting wrinkle will be how the league determines the lottery odds for 2020 without all of the clubs playing the same number of games.

The Warriors, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Hawks, Pistons, Knicks, Bulls, and Hornets will likely be locked into the top eight lottery slots, a source tells Hoops Rumors. The order within the top eight has yet to be determined, but the structure means the Wizards couldn’t go 0-8 this summer when the season resumes and land a better position in the lottery than those teams that won’t be playing.

It’s “part of the tradeoff” for the franchises that won’t be given a chance to resume their campaigns, per the source. Another scenario discussed was freezing the lottery as it stands, allowing no movement up or down by any team, even those in the 9-14 positions. Either way, the top eight are expected to be assured of their standing.

Both the lottery and the combine had been postponed indefinitely, though they are now expected to take place in August. Nothing is finalized as of this writing, including the proposal to return.

Here’s a look at the odds of each lottery position as well as the order of teams, should the league go with the current standings:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH*	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX*	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS*	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC**	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NO**	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
POR*	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

*Will play eight more regular season games

** The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped if the NBA ends up freezing the standings to determine the lottery’s order.

NBA Expected To Approve 22-Team Return-To-Play Format

June 3rd, 2020 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

11:25am: The NBA’s Board of Governors is expected to approve Silver’s plan on Thursday, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

10:00am: When he meets with the NBA’s Board of Governors on Thursday, commissioner Adam Silver intends to propose a return-to-play plan that will see 22 teams resume their seasons, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.

The NBA reportedly discussed proposals involving 16, 20, 22, or 30 teams last week, with that 22-team format gaining increased support. Although the ownership groups from teams like the Hawks and Bulls expressed a desire to participate, per Charania, the plan will exclude them and the rest of the NBA’s bottom-eight teams in order to limit – to some extent – the number of people the league will have to bring into its “bubble” in Orlando.

As Charania details, the 22-team format would bring back the 16 current playoff teams, along with six additional clubs who are within six games of a postseason spot (the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards).

The plan would see those 22 clubs play eight regular season games apiece, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link), before a play-in tournament is held for the eighth seed. The play-in format would be as follows, per Charania:

If the No. 9 seed is more than four games behind the No. 8 seed, the No. 8 seed would automatically earn the playoff spot.
If the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed, those two teams would enter a play-in tournament for the final playoff spot in the conference. Such a tournament would be double-elimination for the No. 8 seed and single-elimination for the No. 9 seed (ie. a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 seed given a 1-0 lead to start).

Currently, the Grizzlies hold a 3.5-game lead on Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento in the West, with San Antonio four games back, and Phoenix six games back. In the East, the Magic have a 5.5-game lead on the Wizards, so Washington would need to make up some ground to force a play-in tournament.

Besides giving those six current lottery teams a chance to make the postseason, the format will allow all 22 clubs to surpass 70 regular season games, ensuring that many of them meet the requirements for regional TV contracts, which will help out the league financially.

According to Charania, July 31 remains the target date for the resumption of the 2019/20 season, with the draft lottery and combine – which had been postponed indefinitely – now expected to take place in August. Presumably, those events would take different forms than they normally do, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s not clear yet how the 2020 lottery odds may be affected by the play-in tournament format.

The NBA’s proposal for the resumption of the season is also expected to include many medical and safety protocols, Charania notes. Sources tell The Athletic that those protocols will likely include players showering at their hotels rather than in the arena, inactive players sitting in the stands instead of on the bench, and players not being permitted to bring guests into the “bubble” until the postseason begins.

Any proposal from the NBA will require approval from at least three-quarters of the league’s Board of Governors (ie. 23 of 30 team owners). However, even if the plan isn’t every club’s first choice, there’s an expectation that team owners will get behind Silver and vote in favor of his proposal.

The Board of Governors’ Thursday call is scheduled for 12:30pm eastern time, tweets Wojnarowski.

Looking Back At A Disappointing Season

May 31st, 2020 at 12:02pm CST by Arthur Hill

Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times looks back at a disappointing season for the Bulls that will be over unless the NBA decides to resume the season for all 30 teams. Cowley hands out a few awards, such as Zach LaVine as player of the year and Coby White as reserve of the year, and says the most significant event was John Paxson’s decision to tell ownership in December that changes were needed in the front office.

Lottery Odds Could Be Affected If Bulls Play

May 29th, 2020 at 6:51pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Bulls’ lottery chances could be jeopardized if they’re included in plans to resume the season, K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago opines. Chicago is currently seventh in the draft lottery standings, giving the team a 32% chance at a top-four pick and a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick, Johnson notes. If the Bulls got hot during the resumption of play and even advanced in a revised playoff format, those odds would drop.