Lauri Markkanen’s fit in the Bulls’ offense is the biggest question facing the franchise, Mark Schanowski of NBC Sports Chicago writes. The organization must figure out if he can become a consistent 20-point, 10-rebound player. There will probably be little roster turnover but the organization is likely to allow point guard Kris Dunn to walk. The Bulls would have to give Dunn a $7.1MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent but they are already deep at point guard.
Fourth-year Bulls point guard/wing Kris Dunn will be a restricted free agent this summer, and after a competent defensive showing during his 2019/20 tenure with the club, he may be an appealing, affordable bench addition for a number of teams on the market, according to Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago. Though Chicago tried to move Dunn as recently as August 2019, Schaefer suggests that he may be worth keeping around.
Schaefer considers Dunn potentially netting an annual price tag in the range of $8-11MM this summer. The former No. 5 pick’s all-defense, almost-no-offense game may make him a better fit for a contender (the Clippers are reported to have interest in adding him) than for a rebuilding team like the Bulls.
The Clippers have a realistic opportunity to bring back their 11-man rotation next season, according to Jovan Buha of The Athletic. Many of the decisions will come down to whether the organization wants to make a financial commitment to its current players or explore other options.
L.A. has Bird rights on Montrezl Harrell and can offer him a longer and more valuable contract than anyone else. The Clippers have Non-Bird rights on Marcus Morris, who was acquired from the Knicks last month, and can offer a new deal starting at $18MM per season. JaMychal Green has a $5MM player option, and the team might decide to use part of its mid-level exception to re-sign Reggie Jackson.
Buha adds that the loss of revenue from the shortened season could work in the Clippers’ favor by depressing a free agent market that’s already limited by the small number of teams with cap space. Harrell and Morris may not get the offers they would have under normal circumstances, while Green could decide to stick with his guaranteed money.
There’s more Clippers news to pass along:
- There may be something to the rumors that Doc Rivers would like to add Bulls guard Kris Dunn as a defensive specialist next season, Buha states in the same piece. Dunn will be a restricted free agent if Chicago makes a $4.6MM qualifying offer, and he could be a nice backcourt partner for Lou Williams coming off the bench. The downsides are Dunn’s poor 3-point shooting — 25.9% this year — and his season-ending knee injury.
- Speculation regarding Tyronn Lue as the next head coach of the Nets has died down while the league has been on hiatus, but Buha understands why Brooklyn would be interested. During his time in Cleveland, Lue proved he could win a title and he developed a strong relationship with Kyrie Irving. Buha identifies two other members of Rivers’ staff, Rex Kalamian and Sam Cassell, who might get head coaching offers soon.
- The Clippers may benefit as much as anyone from having several weeks off, Buha suggests in a separate column. They are among the league’s oldest teams and injuries have been a concern, particularly for Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley. New additions Morris and Jackson will also get more time to learn Rivers’ system.
Thanks in part to the Pacers collecting a $10MM insurance policy on Victor Oladipo, who missed all but 13 games of the postponed NBA season, Indiana’s payroll is scheduled to come in at $104.6MM, the league’s lowest mark. If COVID-19 affects league revenue significantly, the Pacers will be in one of the most comfortable financial situations in the NBA, as J. Michael of the Indianapolis Star reports.
Michael notes that a significant drop in league revenue, such as a 5% drop from the projected $115MM cap ($109.25MM) or a 10% decline ($103.5MM), could impede several teams, but the Pacers are stacked with several players on movable contracts.
There’s more out of the Central Division:
- Bulls rookie point guard Coby White‘s late-season scoring streak (he averaged 23.7 PPG while connecting on 39.8%t of his 8.5 three-point looks) was one of the few positives in a generally dismal 22-43 season for Chicago. Morten Jensen of Forbes wonders what White’s performance means for his club going forward.
- Despite the COVID-19 pandemic putting the NBA on pause this month, Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff and his assistants have been maintaining their (remote) connection to the young Cleveland squad, according to Cleveland.com’s Chris Fedor.
- Pistons rookie point guard Jordan Bone logged time with Detroit’s Grand Rapids G League club and the NBA squad this season, and remains an intriguing player for the team’s future, according to Pistons.com writer Keith Langlois.
If the NBA season is completed late in the summer, it could have long-term implications on the league schedule, Mike Singer of the Denver Post opines. If the playoffs are conducted in July and August, there is no chance that NBA training camps would open in late September, Singer notes. Hawks CEO Steve Koonin’s suggestion prior to the suspension of play that the league calendar should shift to a December-August format could become a reality, at least for one season.
We have more coronavirus-related news:
- The ease in which NBA teams had access to tests compared to the general public was a bad look for the league, Dan Wolken of USA Today writes. Franchises should use their vast resources and influence to get others tested, rather than asymptomatic NBA players, Wolken argues.
- Jazz owner Gail Miller and her family will “more than match” the $200K donation that Gobert has pledged to Vivint Arena and Jazz part-time employees, per Andy Larsen of the Salt Lake Tribune. Gobert and numerous other NBA players have made similar donations to arena workers.
- Bulls guard Tomas Satoransky is pessimistic about the resumption of the NBA season and wants to return to Europe, Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago relays. In a recent interview with NOVA Sports, he said, “It is not pleasant to stay here and watch the team owners try to finish the league in order not to lose so much money. It is not very pleasant, perhaps because we would like to travel to the Czech Republic with my wife and daughter. We perceive the situation logically as Europeans. We perceive that all the right measures are already in place in the Czech Republic, and we think that in the USA, it will only get worse and worse.
- Bulls GM Gar Forman has essentially been reduced to a lead scout, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. The franchise is expected to overhaul its front office once the league shutdown is lifted. Forman will lose his GM title and will have no decision-making authority once the restructuring is completed, Cowley adds.
- It’s doubtful the Bulls would make a serious run at Thunder GM Sam Presti during their planned front office restructuring, according to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. Not only is it unknown whether Presti would be interested in a high-level front office role with the club but it would probably take $8-10MM annually to land his services, Johnson continues, and the Bulls historically haven’t forked up that kind of money. Presti would also likely want to bring in some of his own people, which would add to the tab, Johnson adds.
Players association executive director Michele Roberts is the latest NBA figure to defend the level of coronavirus tests being given to basketball players, writes Ramona Shelburne of ESPN. Eight full teams have been tested in the past week, while many members of the general public are having difficulty getting access to the tests. Roberts said the players shouldn’t be blamed for the perceived inequity.
“There’s nothing irresponsible — if you’ve got that information (that you’ve been exposed) — about trying to get the tests,” Roberts said.“The problem that more of us can’t get the tests.”
Testing on NBA players has come under fire from a number of quarters, most notably New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio, who tweeted yesterday that teams shouldn’t be receiving the tests ahead of critically ill patients. His comments came in response to the news of testing on the Nets that revealed four players are positive.
“We were doing games where tens of thousands of people were coming into our arenas. We were exposing potentially a lot of people to being infected,” Roberts said. “I get it. If you’re 65 years old — I’m 64 — and you’re symptomatic and want to get tested, it must be difficult to hear about some young’uns getting tested. I get that. And the players get that. But to the extent that there was some effort to find out just how pervasive our infection was so that people would know.”
There’s more NBA news related to COVID-19:
- The Pistons tested 17 members of the traveling party that accompanied the team to New York and Philadelphia last week, reports Rod Beard of The Detroit News. It was revealed over the weekend that Christian Wood has tested positive for the virus, but the remaining tests haven’t been completed. Everyone who made the trip is being asked to remain in self-isolation through March 25, which is 14 days from the last game.
- After news broke about the Nets’ positive tests, the Bulls were placed under quarantine through March 22, according to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. That’s two weeks after the Bulls traveled to Brooklyn for a March 8 game. No one from the team’s traveling party has shown any symptoms of the virus, Johnson adds.
- Bill Oram of The Athletic is calling the Lakers “socially irresponsible” after a majority of the team was tested for the virus today at the team’s practice facility. Oram proposes teams that can afford to pay for testing should cover the costs for some at-risk patients.
- Teams are able to arrange testing so quickly because the league office asked all of them to contact infectious disease specialists and implement a process to have their players tested if necessary, explains Tania Ganguli of The Los Angeles Times. Many teams already had established connections with medical facilities that can provide testing.
Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.
Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.
With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.
First round:
- Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
- Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
- New York Knicks (from Clippers)
- Boston Celtics (from Bucks)
Protected picks:
- Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
- Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)
Notes:
- The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.
Second round:
- Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
- Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
- Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
- New York Knicks (from Hornets)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
- Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
- Boston Celtics (from Nets)
- Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
- Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
- Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
- Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)
Protected picks:
- Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
- Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)
Notes:
- The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
- The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.
While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.
It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.
Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.
With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.
For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.
With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIN | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ATL | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.8 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| NYK | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.6 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| CHI | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| CHA | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| WSH | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| PHX | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 18.9 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| SAS | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| SAC* | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 7.6 | 0.1 |
| NOP* | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.0 | 2.3 |
| POR | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.