- Bulls guard Zach LaVine may not have the leverage to land a maximum-salary contract this offseason in restricted free agency, but he wants to continue to work toward being a “max player.” Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago has the details.
- Don’t expect a whole lot of roster turnover for the Bulls this summer, writes Mark Schanowski of NBC Sports Chicago. As Schanowski observes, it’s still probably too early in the club’s rebuilding process to make a big splash in free agency.
The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.
- Jabari Parker (Bucks)
- Dante Exum (Jazz)
- Nik Stauskas (Nets)
- Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
- Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
- Zach LaVine (Bulls)
No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.
Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.
- Elfrid Payton (Suns)
- Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
- Clint Capela (Rockets)
- Kyle Anderson (Spurs)
Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.
Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
Only one player falls into this group this year.
- Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)
Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.
The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
The Bulls will use the last few games of the regular season much as they’ve used the rest of it, auditioning players for long-term roles. As Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times writes, there’s a relatively short list of players who will certainly be back in the picture for the team next season.
While Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen headline the Bulls’ young core, veterans Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday have proven their worth as leaders in the locker room.
Cowley writes that Bobby Portis, David Nwaba and Denzel Valentine have all shown that they can be valuable bench pieces as the team heads forward, leaving five spots to be filled by the likes of incoming 2018 rookies and perhaps current Bulls players who have shown glimpses of promise in 2017/18.
Sean Kilpatrick has shown the Bulls he can score in bunches and he hopes that will be enough to secure a roster spot next season, writes K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune. Kilpatrick is averaging 13 points per night in five games since signing with Chicago last week, including a 19-point fourth quarter in Tuesday’s win over the Hornets. His deal pays $6.2MM over three years, but nothing is guaranteed beyond this season.
“He fits well with what we try to do as far as creating long closeouts and getting into the paint,” coach Fred Hoiberg said. “He’s not afraid of any moment. He’s hitting big shots. He competes at the other end as well. He’s getting to the rim. He’s getting to the free-throw line. We’re spacing the floor and he’s driving and attacking.”
There’s more news from Chicago:
- Second-year guard Denzel Valentine underwent successful arthroscopic knee surgery Wednesday and expects to recover quickly, tweets Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago. Valentine, who averaged 10.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 77 games, is focused on regaining the starting spot he lost when Zach LaVine was activated, telling reporters that he has earned a bigger role and should “definitely” be a starter heading into next season. ‘‘I think I can be a consistent player at this level,” he said, per Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. “Be somebody they can rely on, somebody who defends, makes shots, makes plays for others, plays the game the right way and is a competitor. So I definitely think I’m a starter in this league.’’
- Kris Dunn is also focused on next year after a toe injury ended his season in mid-March, relays Sam Smith of NBA.com. Dunn played 52 games in his first season with the Bulls, averaging 13.4 points and 6.0 assists, and believes he can become one of the league’s best at his position. “I’m trying to be an elite point guard,” he said. “I have the intangibles for it. I’ve got the work ethic. It’s all about putting it together and doing it the right way. I want to be an elite point guard, but a guard who wins games. That’s the big thing for me, try to make everyone better.”
- Bulls’ two-way player Antonio Blakeney has been named Rookie of the Year in the G League, tweets Adam Johnson of Two Ways and 10 Days. The former LSU guard averaged 32.0 points and 6.7 rebounds in 32 games with Windy City. He has appeared in 19 games with Chicago, averaging 7.9 points per night.
Bulls guard Denzel Valentine will miss the rest of the season to undergo an arthroscopic debridement on his left knee, the team announced on Tuesday. Valentine will go under the knife tomorrow.
The Michigan State product made some major progress this season. After appearing in 57 games with the Bulls last season, Valentine played in 77 games (37 starts) this season while exactly doubling his offensive output from 5.1 to 10.2 PPG. All of Valentine’s numbers improved drastically as he played for the rebuilding Bulls.
Valentine, 24, joins Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine on the sideline as Chicago players to wrap up their 2017/18 campaign early due to injury.
A pair of Bulls guards, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, won’t return to action for Chicago this season, the team announced today (Twitter link via K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune). Dunn and LaVine have been dealing with toe and knee injuries, respectively, and haven’t made enough progress to get into game shape within the next 10 days, according to the Bulls.
Both Dunn and LaVine debuted for Chicago this season after arriving from Minnesota in last summer’s Jimmy Butler trade. Dunn, 24, had a promising season for the Bulls after struggling in his rookie season. In 52 games (43 starts), the former Providence standout averaged 13.4 PPG, 6.0 APG, and 4.3 RPG. He has two more years left on his rookie contract entering 2018/19.
As for LaVine, he missed the first half of the season while recovering from last year’s ACL surgery, ultimately appearing in just 24 games for the Bulls. Although he averaged a solid 16.7 PPG, LaVine struggled with his shot a little, posting a .383 FG% and .341 3PT%. Still, the Bulls view him as a key piece of their long-term core, and are expected to lock him up to a long-term contract when he reaches restricted free agency this July.
If the Bulls were in a playoff race, the recovery timelines for Dunn and LaVine may have looked a little different. But the club is currently 26-51 and would probably be happy to lose the rest of its games for lottery purposes, making it an easy decision to hold the duo out of action. As our reverse standings show, Chicago currently ranks eighth in terms of lottery position.
Jose Calderon has become the Swiss army knife of players for the Cavaliers. As the team has dealt with injuries and inconsistency, Calderon has provided a spark in the lineup, on the bench, or any role he’s asked to fill, per USA TODAY Sports.
The 36-year-old has appeared in 53 games for the Cavaliers, starting 30 of them. His numbers are modest as he’s averaging 4.2 PPG 2.1 APG and 1.4 RPG in less than 16 minutes per contest. However, he’s always prepared to help the team, which is an invaluable commodity for a veteran team that underwent a midseason makeover. His teammate, LeBron James, is one of his biggest supporters.
“You got to have one or two guys like that on every team, someone who has kind of like zero ego, zero notion of entitlement,” James said. “Listen, his whole thing is like, ‘I’m going to stay ready. I’ll stay ready so if my number is called,’ and he goes out and produces and that’s big for our team because you never know when someone is going to go down.”
Check out more Central Division notes below:
- Terry Pluto of The Plain Dealer revisited the offseason trade that brought an injured Isaiah Thomas to the Cavaliers and shipped Kyrie Irving to the Celtics. Pluto writes that it would have probably made sense for Thomas to undergo hip surgery last season as he will miss the next four months due to hip surgery. Thomas never got acclimated to Cleveland and was shipped to the Lakers. Pluto also looks the deal for the Celtics and several other aspects of the deal.
- Bulls center Robin Lopez was fined $25,000 for abusing game officials and failing to leave the court in a timely manner after he was ejected in the fourth quarter of the team’s loss to the Heat on Thursday, the league announced.
- Mark Strotman of NBC Sports Chicago looks at the Bulls’ odds of falling to a top three pick in the 2018 NBA Draft and which players would make sense as targets.
Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.
Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…
- Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
- The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
- The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
- In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
- The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
- Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.
- Bulls guard Zach LaVine says he’s not stressed about free agency and he trusts his representatives and team management to work out a fair contract, relays K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune. Both sides have expressed confidence that a deal will get done as the fourth-year guard heads toward restricted free agency. “The agency and front office, they’re both trying to get the better of each [other],” LaVine said. “but I think this situation is a little bit different because there’s mutual respect on both sides and understanding. There’s no bad blood between us, so I think everything will go smoothly.”
- Despite recently receiving a three-year, $6.2MM contract from the Bulls, guard Sean Kilpatrick still views every game in the NBA as an audition, writes Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. “That’s how I looked at things, and that’s how I viewed things since I got into this league, and that’s why I think I’ve had some type of success in that area.” Kilpatrick said.
- It appears as though the Bulls plan on keeping head coach Fred Hoiberg around for a fourth season, Cowley opines in another piece. “I’ve gotten unbelievable support from everybody throughout the year, going back to what I thought was a great offseason and training camp,” Hoiberg said.