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2023/24 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

October 8th, 2023 at 9:57am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2023/24 NBA regular season around the corner, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2022/23, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’23/24?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Central Division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Indiana Pacers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Previous voting results:

Northwest

  • Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
  • Utah Jazz (35.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)
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Central Notes: Lillard, Griffin, Morris, Thompson, Ball

October 6th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Rory Maher

Point guard Damian Lillard is beginning to find his niche with the Bucks, writes Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports. While Lillard plans to do “a lot of listening” as he grows accustomed to a new environment, he says he’s already giving the younger players advice.

“I’ve just been coming in, introducing myself,” he said. “And I’m interacting with different guys so they can see, I’m not on ‘superstar time.’ And I think as I earn the respect of my teammates and everybody else, they respect what I say after that.

“But if something comes up that I’ve had (experience with), or something that I’ve, that I recognize is what’s in the best interest, I’m not afraid to be the person to say it. I’m not a guy that is going to hold back or second-guess what I have to say because I know that what I have to say comes from a good place at all time.”

New head coach Adrian Griffin is making an imprint as well, according to Goodwill, particularly on the defensive end.

“One of the messages to the team, if you stay ready, you don’t have to get ready,” Griffin said. “We want to be physical now so when the playoffs come you don’t have to be you know, talk about this good physical that’s gonna be part of our DNA.”

Here’s more from the Central:

  • Pistons guard Monte Morris, who was acquired from Washington in the offseason, says he’s embracing the opportunity to become a vocal leader for a young Detroit team, per Keith Langlois of Pistons.com. “That’s going to be a good challenge for me because it’s going to be one of the first times in my career where that’s going to be something they’re going to be looking for from me,” Morris said. “To be a voice. With my resume and the experience I have been able to have in my career so far – being me, playing the right way, bring energy, trying to be as consistent as possible every day. Have fun with it. But (being) vocal is going to be my biggest challenge. I’m ready for it.”
  • Head coach Monty Williams believes No. 5 overall pick Ausar Thompson has a chance to make an immediate impact for the Pistons, as Langlois tweets. “We think he’s going to be phenomenal and we think he’s going to be an integral part of our team,” Williams said. “And there’s a chance that could happen right away.”
  • Bulls guard Lonzo Ball hasn’t played since January 2021 and will miss the entire 2023/24 season following a third knee surgery. However, he’s optimistic that he’ll return to an NBA court in the future, he tells Jamal Collier of ESPN. “After the other surgeries, this one has definitely gone the best as far as (the) recovery process,” Ball said. “The last two rehab processes I had, I was getting better and then it just hit a standstill and it started going down. And I haven’t hit that yet.”
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And-Ones: Star Trade Requests, Tavares, Intriguing Players, Win Projections

October 5th, 2023 at 8:25pm CST by Tristan Tucker

In the past decade or so, the NBA has seen its fair share of superstar trade requests, the majority of which have been granted. Kevin Durant requested a trade out of Brooklyn last year, and we’ve watched the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis, to name a few, ask to be moved. For years, the norm was that those players gave a list of teams they’d prefer to be traded to, with that usually being honored.

Damian Lillard and James Harden are the latest players to demand trades from teams. However, unlike all those that came before them, Lillard wasn’t sent to his previously preferred destination (Miami), and Harden remains on the Sixers’ roster into training camp. Howard Beck of The Ringer opines that these two situations, in particular, prove that the NBA’s so-called “superstar empowerment era” has its limits. According to Beck, front offices and league executives see this as a good thing.

One Eastern Conference executive said “teams are taking back control,” according to Beck, with another longtime general manager saying “it is a significant event that [Lillard] didn’t land where he wanted.”

These executives aren’t against player empowerment, Beck says, but the widespread trade requests by superstars have been destabilizing to teams’ progress. There have been 14 trade requests by players Beck defines as superstars in the last five years, including three from Harden.

Ultimately, the “one team or nothing” approach looks to be the point where some clubs will draw the line, Beck reasons. While it worked out last season for the Suns, who had Mikal Bridges to send to Brooklyn in the Durant move, it diminished the market in the case of Lillard. “I think his chances of ending up in Miami would have been much greater [if he opened up the request to more teams],” one agent said to Beck.

We have more odds and ends from the basketball world:

  • In an annual survey of EuroLeague general managers conducted by BasketNews, more than half (53.8%) predicted that Real Madrid center Edy Tavares would be the next EuroLeague player to go to the NBA. Last year, general managers picked Vasilije Micic to move to the NBA, and he eventually did, signing with the Thunder this offseason. Sean Highkin of The Rose Garden Report tweets that the Trail Blazers had interest in Tavares this offseason, but a significant buyout kept him in Madrid. The BasketNews report states that Portland actually submitted an offer, but with Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams on board, it’s unclear if they’ll continue to have interest. James Nnaji, Guerschon Yabusele, Marko Simonovic and Khalifa Diop also received votes. Tavares previously holds 13 games of NBA experience with Atlanta and Cleveland from 2015-17.
  • In an annual piece (ESPN+ link), ESPN’s Zach Lowe names his five most intriguing players to watch out for in the 2023/24 season. Lowe avoids superstars, rookies and second-year players for the most part in his rankings. LaMelo Ball, Devin Vassell, Josh Giddey, Ayton and Immanuel Quickley are the five names Lowe selects to watch out for, with each having a chance to take their respective teams to the next level. I highly recommend reading the piece in full, as Lowe provides detailed breakdowns on each player.
  • Following up on his piece about teams likely to overachieve, The Athletic’s John Hollinger broke down five teams that he believes will fall short relative to Vegas win total over/unders. Hollinger expects the Kings and Thunder to win fewer than 44.5 games, the Magic to win fewer than 36.5 games and the Bulls to finish with below 37.5 wins. Of note, Hollinger also doesn’t think the Suns will reach their projected total of 52.5 wins, despite adding Bradley Beal and depth in the offseason. Hollinger reasons that health is a concern and that while he thinks they are certainly contenders in the postseason, the regular season might be bumpy.
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Bulls Notes: Dosunmu, Williams, Craig, Donovan

October 5th, 2023 at 9:01am CST by Arthur Hill

In an interview with K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago, Bulls guard Ayo Dosunmu said he’s embracing the opportunity he has in training camp after an uneven second season. With Lonzo Ball still injured, there’s an open competition for the starting point guard role that also involves Jevon Carter and Coby White. The team invested in all three players this summer, re-signing Dosunmu and White while adding Carter in free agency.

“Ultimately, I think that competition is going to help our team in the long run,” Dosunmu said. “We go at each other and try to kill each other in practice. When we’re on the court together, it’s going to make our team much more smooth. Me going into my third year and our core group being together pretty much the same time, it’s getting time for us to turn the corner.”

After falling to the second round in the 2021 draft, Dosunmu became a contributor right away in his first season, starting 40 of the 77 games he played and earning second-team All-Rookie honors. With only a two-year contract, he got to test the market earlier than most players and decided that staying in Chicago was his best move.

“I came into free agency with an open mind that I could be playing anywhere,” Dosunmu said. “Put my feelings aside and basically try to secure what’s best for me and my game and my family for the future. Ultimately with praying, leaving it up to God, that was my path, to sign back with the Bulls.”

There’s more from Chicago:

  • Coach Billy Donovan said Patrick Williams will play an integral role this season, but the specifics are still being defined, Johnson adds in another story. Williams worked with the starters on the first day of training camp, but Donovan used Torrey Craig with that unit on Wednesday and plans to give Alex Caruso some time at power forward as well. “I think every player wants to start,” Williams said. “But I want to come in and play my game, however that plays out with the coaching staff. Part of being on a team is you have to trust the people you’re on a team with. You have to trust the plan they have for you. You might have to sacrifice.”
  • Craig believes he can provide something the Bulls have been lacking, according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. “A little bit of toughness,” he said, “a little bit of an edge for guys with raw emotion to say how they feel and wear those emotions on their sleeve.’’ Cowley notes that Patrick Beverley provided those same qualities when he signed with Chicago in February, but he left for Philadelphia during the offseason.
  • The Bulls’ added depth has Donovan contemplating a 10-man rotation, Cowley states in a separate story. Donovan may need the team to get off to a fast start, as oddsmakers have him listed as a 4-1 favorite as the first coach to be fired this season, according to the Sun-Times.
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Vucevic Expected To Have Expanded Offensive Role

October 3rd, 2023 at 9:24pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • Nikola Vucevic had discussions with coach Billy Donovan and the Bulls front office regarding his offensive role prior to his decision to sign an extension, he told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. “Yeah, there was a lot of discussions about that,’’ Vucevic said. “That was a big thing for me. A lot of stuff we talked about was more with Billy because he’s the head coach and he’s the one that makes those decisions. But it was finding ways to utilize me more. Not so much only for me shooting the ball and scoring but using my play-making ability to help the team in different ways.’’
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Bulls Notes: DeRozan, LaVine, Ball, Vucevic, Carter, Luxury Tax

October 2nd, 2023 at 5:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan is headed to unrestricted free agency next summer unless he signs an extension. He said he’ll let his agent, Aaron Goodwin, concentrate on that issue, according to ESPN News Services.

“I have an agent. He deals with it and I tell him to leave me the hell alone so I can focus on my five kids,” DeRozan said. “I’m not kidding you. I try not to focus on that and let him handle what he needs to handle.”

Executive vice president Artūras Karnišovas says he’s in active discussions with Goodwin regarding an extension for DeRozan, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.

DeRozan is hoping to stay with the Bulls and lift them to greater heights rather than pushing to join an established contender.

“For me, it’s all about understanding what we can do to win. How we can win,” he said. “Obviously, this is a place I want to be. You can take that out of the equation.”

We have more on the Bulls:

  • The Zach LaVine trade rumors never completely go away, but he feels he showed his loyalty to the organization last year when he signed a long-term contract, Bulls Talk tweets. “I committed to the Bulls when I signed here, and I’ll be committed to the Bulls until I leave,” he said. “That’s not my decision. I made my decision to be here.”
  • Lonzo Ball, who will miss the season after undergoing cartilage transplant surgery, said he’s “about halfway through the rehab process,” Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic tweets. Ball is aiming to return for the 2024/25 season.
  • Nikola Vucevic felt an obligation to return to the Bulls, noting they gave up a lot of assets to Orlando when they acquired him, Mayberry tweets. “Chicago traded for me. They brought me here. They gave up a lot for me,” he said. “And so I felt a responsibility to come back and help the team do better than we did. I don’t know what that will be in the end. But that’s just kind of how I felt.” He inked a three-year, $60MM contract extension prior to free agency.
  • The Bucks and Celtics have stolen the headlines in the East with blockbuster trades just before training camp. Jevon Carter, who played for Milwaukee last season, said he’s not concerned about what’s going on outside of Chicago, K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago writes. “Thoughts on Milwaukee and Boston? I don’t really care. I’m a Chicago Bull,” he said. “I’m not really thinking about Boston or Milwaukee.”
  • Karnišovas said the team’s performance will impact whether or not ownership enters luxury tax territory, Johnson adds in the same story. “I think we’re at the point where we’re going to go into the luxury tax if we’re confirming this is the group. I think this is just giving more time for this group to figure it out. And I think once you have consistent success, you can go for it,” Karnišovas said.
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Durant, Curry, LeBron, Other U.S. Stars Express Olympic Interest

October 2nd, 2023 at 4:08pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2024 Olympics in Paris were a popular topic of discussion on media days around the NBA in Monday, with many of the league’s biggest American stars expressing interest in representing Team USA next summer.

Suns forward Kevin Durant, who won Olympic gold medals in 2012, 2016, and 2020, was adamant in addressing his 2024 plans, telling reporters, “I will play in the Olympics next year,” according to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press.

Durant’s Suns teammate Devin Booker also indicated that he would accept an invite from USA Basketball, as Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic writes, while KD’s former Warriors teammate Stephen Curry told reporters, “(I) definitely want to be on the team,” per Reynolds.

Lakers forward LeBron James, who was rumored last month to be recruiting his fellow U.S. stars to play at next year’s Olympics, confirmed his interest, tweets Jovan Buha of The Athletic. His teammate Anthony Davis wasn’t prepared to commit yet, telling reporters that it’s too early to say whether he’ll play (Twitter link via Buha).

Of course, one of the biggest question marks for Team USA is Joel Embiid, who has yet to take part in an international competition and has citizenship in France and the U.S. in addition to his native Cameroon.

As Tim Bontemps of ESPN relays (via Twitter), Embiid said today that he’d like to play in the Olympics but is still weighing his options. While the U.S. and France have already qualified, Cameroon will compete in a qualifying tournament next summer in the hopes of earning a spot in the 12-team Olympic field. Embiid, who was reportedly given an October 10 deadline by the French team, said he hopes to make his decision “in the next few days.”

“I love all three options,” Embiid said, per ESPN. “Cameroon, I’m born there, I’m from there and I always want to represent my country. But the goal is also to play in the Olympics. If we had a chance, or if we would qualify for the Olympics, that will be an easy decision. But that’s still up in the air. And I really do want to play in the Olympics.”

Here’s more on the potential Team USA roster, which can only accommodate 12 players:

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And-Ones: Holiday, N. Young, J. Parker, 2024 Draft, More

October 2nd, 2023 at 2:55pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat and Clippers are believed to be the other teams that were seriously in the mix for Jrue Holiday before the Trail Blazers accepted the Celtics’ offer for the All-Defensive guard, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said during the latest episode of his Hoop Collective podcast.

“I’m not sure exactly where are the offers were at the end for the Blazers before they decided on the Celtics’ offer, but based on my conversations, my feel was there was at least three teams who were making significant bids.” Windhorst said, according to RealGM. “… The teams I really think were there in the end were the Celtics, Heat and the Clippers.

“The reason I think those three teams were there because I think those were the three teams Jrue Holiday was really focused on at some point being able to sign a longer-term contract (with). And that message kind of went out in recent days. Other teams made offers but it was sort of a three-team, aggressive race at the end. Only the Blazers know exactly what the offers were.”

The Clippers came close to acquiring Malcolm Brogdon back in June, so it will be interesting to see if they make any effort to re-engage the Trail Blazers in talks for Brogdon after missing out on Holiday.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Former NBA guard Nick Young is resuming his playing career overseas, having signed with the Macau Black Bears of the ASEAN Basketball League (ABL), according to the team (Instagram link; hat tip to Sportando). A former first-round pick, Young has appeared in 720 regular season NBA games, but has been out of the league since being waived by Denver in 2018.
  • Speaking to Alex Molina of Eurohoops following his move to FC Barcelona, former No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker said he believes the NBA is getting “watered down” because so many teams are trying to tank for draft picks each season, and expressed dismay that players like Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, and John Wall can’t find NBA homes.
  • ESPN’s Jonathan Givony (Insider link) has updated his mock draft for 2024, moving USC guard Isaiah Collier up to No. 2 and Perth Wildcats big man Alexandre Sarr up to No. 4. While Ron Holland of the G League Ignite is still considered the early favorite to be next year’s No. 1 pick, Givony says Sarr has done enough to join the small group of prospects with a legitimate case for the top spot in the 2024 draft.
  • With a series of holes in its programming schedule this winter due to the writers’ and actors’ strikes, ABC will air NBA games on every Wednesday night in January, tweets Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. That slate of games will includes matchups between the Pelicans and Warriors, Mavericks and Lakers, and Suns and Nets, among others.
  • Kurt Helin of NBC Sports believes that Jason Kidd (Mavericks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), and Billy Donovan (Bulls) are three head coaches who will be on the hot seat this season.
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Williams Entering Another Pivotal Season

October 1st, 2023 at 9:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • It seems as if every season is pivotal for Bulls forward Patrick Williams and this one is no different, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times opines. Williams played in every game in 2022/23 and has shown he can be a difference-maker defensively. He also shot 41.5% from 3-point range last season. However, his overall offensive contributions and rebounding are still not up to par, Cowley writes.
  • The battle between Coby White and newcomer Jevon Carter for minutes at the point is just one of the training camp questions looming for the Bulls, Cowley writes in a separate story. Torrey Craig could also push Williams for minutes, given his superior rebounding numbers.
  • K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago concurs that the Bulls‘ starting jobs at point guard and power forward are up for grabs with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević the only surefire starters.
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Details On Damian Lillard’s “Messy” Exit From Portland

September 28th, 2023 at 10:29pm CST by Rory Maher

Multiple reporters have cited sources who said the Trail Blazers hadn’t discussed a Damian Lillard trade with the Heat — Lillard’s preferred landing spot — since July.

According to Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report, the last dialogue the two sides had was a phone call at Summer League between Blazers GM Joe Cronin and Heat GM Andy Elisburg. Miami wanted to set up an in-person meeting in Las Vegas to have further discussions, but it never transpired, per Haynes.

“How this summer played out behind the scenes definitely left a sour taste in my mouth,” Lillard told Haynes. “But it doesn’t change the amazing experiences I’ve had with the Trail Blazers and this city. I’ll always cherish this place. This is my home. I’ll always live here regardless.”

The situation became acrimonious almost immediately, as the Blazers felt Lillard’s trade request had put them at a negotiating disadvantage, while Miami believed Portland was acting out of emotion instead of understanding the league is a business, Haynes writes.

Following a lengthy period of inactivity, Aaron Goodwin, Lillard’s agent, suggested that Cronin meet with Lillard in the event that the longtime star returned to the team.

As Haynes details, at the meeting on September 5, Lillard expressed his disappointment with the situation and wondered why there hadn’t been any communication between Portland and Miami. He didn’t want to be traded anywhere else and noted that he’d been willing to sacrifice for the team.

Specifically, Haynes cites sources who say the Blazers asked Lillard to sit out the final 10 games of last season to boost Portland’s lottery odds. Lillard was told a top pick would improve the front office’s chances of trading it for a win-now veteran. Lillard reluctantly agreed, with the team citing a “calf injury.” Portland ultimately kept the pick and selected Scoot Henderson No. 3 overall.

According to Haynes, Cronin told Lillard at the September 5 meeting that he planned to extract every possible asset from the Heat if he had to deal with them. Realizing that was unrealistic, Lillard responded by saying if he couldn’t land in Miami, he’d prefer to rescind his trade request and return to Portland.

Cronin told Lillard he couldn’t come back, which “shocked” the 33-year-old, sources tell Haynes. Lillard was “discouraged” that he couldn’t return to the Blazers, but he also didn’t want to be somewhere he wasn’t wanted, so he ended the meeting.

Shortly thereafter, the Blazers — who were frustrated with their offers at that point — refused to communicate with Lillard and Goodwin for almost three weeks. Portland didn’t want Goodwin meddling in trade talks, which is how the team rationalized the decision, per Haynes.

With Cronin refusing to talk, Goodwin came up with a contingency plan, letting both Milwaukee and Brooklyn know Lillard would be interested in joining those two teams. Haynes is now the third to report that information regarding the Bucks and Nets.

The NBA actually got involved on September 23 because of the contentious communication breakdown, Haynes writes. Cronin agreed to have dialogue with Goodwin at that point, and a few days later Lillard was traded to the Bucks.

Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo admitted he has mixed emotions about the trade, he told Haynes.

“It’s a bittersweet day for the city of Milwaukee,” Antetkounmpo said. “You get Dame, who is a great player, but you lose a great guy. Jrue (Holiday) took us to the promised land. I’m 10 years in now. I know it’s a business. At the end of the day, Jrue will alway be be my brother for life. He’s one of the best human beings I’ve been around. But we’ve got to focus on the goal to win the championship. Dame wants this. He’s hungry to win, and he’s going to push us. I’m very happy to have him on our team.”

Haynes’ story for Bleacher Report has more details and quotes and is worth reading in full.

Here are some more notes related to the three-team blockbuster:

  • In a series of Twitter posts, Lillard sent a heartfelt thank you and goodbye to Blazers fans, teammates, coaches, employees, the media, and more. In conclusion, he wrote, “As this chapter of my life ends, I look back and realize how special it was. Even in this moment I feel sad that we never accomplished what I so badly wanted to. I don’t cry much, but I know my love for you is real because I am for sure dropping some tears right now. Rip City you know my heart and where I stand because I’ve stood there for over a decade so to have to move off my square hurts my heart. … I do believe a day will come where I put on a Blazers uniform on again, and hopefully by then I’ll be forgiven for breaking your hearts along with my own.”
  • Center Deandre Ayton, who was sent to Portland in the deal, also sent a thank you message to the Suns (via Twitter).
  • Only Lillard and Holiday will be required to report and pass physicals as part of the deal, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter links), who adds that Holiday can’t be traded until both players pass their physicals. The Blazers owe the Bulls a top-14 protected first-rounder through 2028, and if it conveys that summer, Portland’s ’28 first-round pick swap with Milwaukee will be voided, Marks reports.
  • The Blazers generated an $8.8MM traded player exception in the deal, while the Suns got a $1.1MM TPE, per Marks.
  • In another tweet, Marks notes that Holiday can’t be aggregated with other salaries for two months, though he can be traded on his own (or with one or more players if his salary isn’t aggregated with theirs).
  • While multiple reports have now said Goodwin reached out to Brooklyn, NetsDaily.com hears the Nets were never interested and only discussed Lillard with Portland one time, in July. The Nets simply didn’t believe Lillard could turn them into a contender and were wary of his age and long-term contract, per NetsDaily.
  • Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype explores what’s next following the deal, while Sam Vecenie of The Athletic evaluates the trade for the Bucks, Blazers and Suns.
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