The 2021 trade deadline acquisition of Nikola Vucevic didn’t have an immediate impact on the Bulls‘ on-court results, and there were some raised eyebrows when the deal ultimately cost the team the No. 8 overall pick that became Franz Wagner. But that trade was just the first in a series of moves the front office had up its sleeve to turn the team back into a contender.
After completing sign-and-trade deals for DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball and adding Alex Caruso in free agency last offseason, the Bulls came storming out of the gate and held a top-two spot in the Eastern Conference for most of the first half of the season.
Chicago was still the East’s top seed as late as February 25, but injuries ultimately caught up to the team. Caruso and Ball only played 41 and 35 games, respectively, while starting power forward Patrick Williams missed most of the season while recovering from wrist surgery and Zach LaVine was hampered for much of the year by a nagging knee issue.
The Bulls eventually slipped to sixth in the East and were quickly dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks. Now, the front office will have to determine how much of the team’s disappointing finish can be attributed to the injury bug and how much the roster still needs to be upgraded to make the club a legitimate championship contender.
The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:
While knee soreness slowed down LaVine in the second half of the season, he’s coming off an extremely impressive two-year stretch in which he earned back-to-back All-Star nods while averaging 25.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 4.7 APG on .491/.404/.851 shooting. Now, the 27-year-old’s free agency looms large over Chicago’s summer.
LaVine isn’t a great defender, and he recently underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so there’s plenty of reason to be wary about giving him a maximum-salary contract that could be worth up to $212MM over five years. LaVine’s camp may have a sense that putting that offer on the table isn’t a no-brainer for the Bulls, which is why we’ve been hearing whispers in recent weeks about the possibility LaVine could end up elsewhere.
Ultimately though, I’d be shocked if the Bulls and LaVine part ways. It won’t be easy to get a significant return for him in a sign-and-trade deal, and letting him walk wouldn’t necessary open up any great alternatives for the team.
A $42MM+ annual investment in LaVine certainly seems high, but if the knee is back to 100% by the fall (which is expected), he should have several prime years left, and the NBA’s salary cap will only continue to rise, making his salary more manageable. It probably makes sense for the front office to simply bite the bullet on a max offer, rather than trying to nickel-and-dime LaVine in negotiations and running the risk of upsetting him.
Besides LaVine, the Bulls’ free agents include Derrick Jones, Troy Brown, and Tristan Thompson. None of those players lit the world on fire in 2021/22, so Chicago shouldn’t necessarily feel compelled to re-sign any of them. But if they all walk, the team will have to find a way to bring in at least one solid rotation piece on the wing, as well as a backup center.
Decision day on Coby White‘s future is also inching ever closer for the Bulls, who will have the option of offering the former lottery pick a rookie scale extension this offseason.
Ball’s recovery from surgery on his left knee will factor into what the team does with White — if Chicago can count on having a healthy Ball going forward, then the team should have more than enough backcourt depth to get by, with Caruso and breakout rookie Ayo Dosunmu also in the mix. In an ideal world, the Bulls would be able to use White in a deal that nets them another reliable wing or center. But if Ball continues to experience setbacks, White may end up being an important insurance policy.
Vucevic and Williams are offseason wild cards for the Bulls. Vucevic is entering the final year of his contract and probably isn’t the player the club wants protecting the rim on defense for the next few years, but finding a clear upgrade won’t be easy.
For instance, while Chicago has been linked to three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Jazz would likely demand at least a package of Vucevic, Williams, and draft picks — even then, I’m not sure how eager Utah would be to make a deal. After refusing to include Williams in an in-season offer for Jerami Grant, would the Bulls be more willing to part with him this summer? Or will the team remain steadfastly against selling low on a player who has such a tantalizing two-way ceiling?
It’ll also be interesting to see how prepared Bulls ownership is to pay the luxury tax. If we assume LaVine is back on a max deal, Tony Bradley picks up his player option, and Chicago keeps its first-round pick, team salary would be at about $139.8MM for eight players. With a projected tax line of $149MM, the Bulls would have the flexibility to use the full mid-level exception ($10.35MM) and stay well below the hard cap (likely around $155-156MM).
Any number of minor or major moves could affect those projected figures, but if that scenario plays out, I suspect ownership may prefer to use just a portion of the MLE, staying out of tax territory for the time being. If that’s the case, it would eliminate a few potential free agent targets in the $8-10MM range.
After selecting Dosunmu 38th overall a year ago, the Bulls own the No. 18 pick in this year’s draft and figure to once again seek out a player capable of stepping into the rotation as a rookie. Tari Eason and E.J. Liddell are among the players who have multiple years of college basketball experience, could be available at No. 18, and are capable of helping shore up Chicago’s frontcourt defense.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
DeMar DeRozan ($27,300,000)- Nikola Vucevic ($22,000,000)
- Lonzo Ball ($19,534,884)
- Alex Caruso ($9,030,000)
- Patrick Williams ($7,775,400)
- Coby White ($7,413,955)
- Javonte Green ($1,815,677)
- Ayo Dosunmu ($1,563,518)
- Marko Simonovic ($1,563,518)
- Total: $97,996,952
Player Options
Team Options
Non-Guaranteed Salary
Restricted Free Agents
- Troy Brown ($7,228,448 qualifying offer / $15,511,692 cap hold): Bird rights
- Matt Thomas ($2,086,473 qualifying offer / $2,086,473 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $17,598,165
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 18 overall pick ($3,148,680)
- Total: $3,148,680
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
- Coby White (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Zach LaVine ($29,250,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Derrick Jones ($12,637,170 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Tristan Thompson ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Adam Mokoka ($1,616,044 cap hold): Early Bird rights 1
- Total: $45,314,730
Offseason Cap Outlook
As outlined above, the Bulls would be well above the cap and approaching the tax line if they re-sign LaVine to a maximum-salary contract. They’d be able to use their full mid-level exception in that scenario, but not without sneaking into tax territory (unless they shed a little salary elsewhere).
If the Bulls don’t retain LaVine or any other free agents, they could potentially open up nearly $18MM in cap room, but that’s an unlikely scenario — if LaVine walks, the team would probably try to get something back in a sign-and-trade, eating up any available cap space.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 2
- Trade exception: $5,000,000
Footnotes
- The cap hold for Mokoka remain on the Bulls’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value. If the Bulls approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.