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Community Shootaround: Top Restricted Free Agents

May 29th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

This year’s free agent class could have been filled with superstars. The pool of impact players has been drained, as many of them signed extensions.

There are still some intriguing names that will hit the market this summer and many of them will be restricted free agents. Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Hamidou Diallo, Gary Trent Jr., Josh Hart and Lauri Markkanen are some of the players who could receive offer sheets.

Three other names stand out on the list of RFAs – John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen.

It’s rare that a highly productive young big like Collins would reach restricted free agency at this point in his career. Collins, 23, averaged 17.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on a playoff team and he’s a career 38% shooter from deep.

Yet the Hawks seem lukewarm, at best, on Collins as a long-term partner for franchise player Trae Young. He reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer, believing he could get a max deal, or something very close to it, in free agency.

Atlanta need only to extend a $7.7MM qualifying offer in order to make him a restricted free agent, giving the team the option of matching an offer sheet.

Collins has the opportunity to enhance his resume with a strong playoff showing. He contributed a ho-hum 12 points and seven rebounds to Atlanta’s Game 1 win on Sunday but counterpart Julius Randle shot just 6-for-23 from the field. Collins’ second postseason game was a disaster, as he went scoreless in 12, foul-filled minutes.

He contributed 14 points and six rebounds in Game 3 on Friday but, more importantly, helped to hold Randle to a 2-for-15 shooting night.

Ball’s qualifying offer is $14.36MM, so New Orleans has a tougher decision to make. Ball has long been rumored to be a primary target for the Bulls, who are seeking a natural point guard.

Ball’s name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Pelicans choose to make him unrestricted. That would leave open the possibility of a sign-and-trade, rather than getting nothing if they decline to match an offer sheet.

However, it’s probably a safe assumption that Pelicans will extend the QO and see if Ball’s offers fall into their price range.

In contrast, the Cavaliers acquired Allen as part of the multi-team James Harden blockbuster with the intent of re-signing him. Allen, whose QO is $7.7MM, averaged 13.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 1.4 BPG after joining Cleveland.

Allen didn’t exactly turn around the Cavaliers’ fortunes but they seem committed to retaining the 23-year-old center. So if another team covets Allen, it will have to make a substantial offer to force the Cavs to think twice about matching.

That leads us to our question of the day: Among John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen, which restricted free agent will receive the biggest offer this summer?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Central Notes: Love, DiVincenzo, Pistons, Gottlieb

May 29th, 2021 at 9:23am CST by Dana Gauruder

Kevin Love‘s season was marred by injury and declining production, but Cavaliers GM Koby Altman says the veteran forward is still part of the team’s plans, according to an ESPN report. Love appeared in just 25 games due to a calf injury.

“We want him to be here,” Altman said. “We signed him to an extension for that reason, to be here when we want to make that next step. And so we’re going to hopefully rely on him heavily next year after a significant summer.”

There are still two years and $60.2MM remaining on Love’s extension, which would make it difficult for Altman to trade him.

We have more from the Central Division:

The Bucks have lost a key member of their backcourt, Donte DiVincenzo, due to a torn ligament in his left ankle. The Athletic’s Eric Nehm takes a look at which players might absorb DiVincenzo’s minutes. Bryn Forbes, Pat Connaughton and P.J. Tucker could pick up the slack offensively with Forbes moving into the starting lineup. But it will be difficult to replace DiVincenzo on the defensive end. Coach Mike Budenholzer may give more playing time to Jeff Teague, though he could also opt to slice his rotation to eight players.
Nearly half of the players on the Pistons’ roster could become free agents this summer. The Detroit News’ Rod Beard takes a look at who’s likely to stay and who will go.
Cavaliers assistant coach Lindsay Gottlieb got a head coaching offer from USC that was too good financially for her to pass up, Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com details. “I said, ʻI didn’t come to the NBA to turn right around. I’m really enjoying what I’m doing. I feel like I’m part of something,’” Gottlieb said of her initial reaction when USC came calling. “ʻHowever, I do feel I want to be a head coach again whether that’s men’s college basketball, women’s college basketball, the WNBA. I understand what USC can be and it’s intriguing to me to have a conversation. I got off the phone after 25 minutes and I didn’t feel too strong either way.” The school’s hard sell convinced her to take that job.

Front Office Changes Possible?

May 25th, 2021 at 9:37pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Fedor reflects that former Cavs general manager Danny Ferry enjoyed the lengthiest run (five years) in power for Cleveland since Dan Gilbert became the team’s majority owner. Alhough the team remains in the midst of a multi-year rebuild, there is a chance that Gilbert’s impatience compels him to make a change and let Altman go, following a 22-50 season, Fedor notes.

The 2021 Cavaliers offseason could include front office changes, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Current GM Koby Altman has been leading the front office since the 2017 offseason.

Fedor also mentions that Knicks executive Brock Aller, who kicked off his NBA career as Gilbert’s personal assistant before moving up the ranks in the Cavaliers’ front office, could be a potential replacement for Altman. Fedor adds, however, that Aller recently sold his Ohio home, an indication that the exec expects to remain with the Knicks for the immediate future.

2021 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results

May 25th, 2021 at 1:11pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.

The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
- Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
- Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).

Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.

However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.

Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.

The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.

The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.

And-Ones: Overtime Elite, Two-Way Rules, Barbosa, Lottery

May 21st, 2021 at 11:58am CST by Luke Adams

The Overtime Elite league for top high school prospects has secured its first two commitments, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, who reports that Matt Bewley and Ryan Bewley, a pair of 6’9″ twin brothers from Florida, are signing with Overtime Elite.

Matt and Ryan, high school juniors who are ranked third and 12th overall by ESPN among recruits in the class of 2023, are expected to earn in the seven figures over the course of their respective two-year contracts, sources tell Wojnarowski.

Jonathan Givony of ESPN, who tweets that Overtime Elite has been “extremely active” in attempting to recruit top high school prospects this spring, notes (via Twitter) that the league is aiming to end up with about 30 players by the time it starts up in September. The league has been approaching 2021 high school grads with offers of two-year contracts and reclassification to 2022, according to Givony.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

In an Insider-only article for ESPN.com, Brian Windhorst and Kevin Arnovitz explore which new rules and other innovations implemented for the NBA’s 2020/21 season may stick around beyond this season. According to the ESPN duo, the baseball-style two-game series that became common this season are unlikely to be as frequent going forward now that fans are being allowed back into arenas, but the league has been gauging teams’ interest in keeping the rules related to expanded eligibility for two-way players.
Former NBA guard Leandro Barbosa, who currently works as a player mentor coach on the Warriors‘ staff, will play in the BIG3 this summer, a source tells Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated (Twitter link).
Zach Harper of The Athletic takes a look at what’s next for this year’s lottery-bound NBA teams, while Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report identifies the Cavaliers, Kings, and Warriors as some teams that should consider either trading their lottery picks or trading down if they don’t land a top-four pick.

Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

Anderson Varejao Signs For The Rest Of The Season

May 14th, 2021 at 10:56am CST by Arthur Hill

The Cavaliers have received a hardship exception continuation to sign Anderson Varejao for the rest of the season, tweets Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Varejao’s first 10-day day contract has expired, but he has re-signed for the season’s final three days. This was Cleveland’s plan from the time Varejao was added to the roster, Fedor adds.

And-Ones: Barea, Schedule, COVID-19, Future Rankings

May 13th, 2021 at 12:11pm CST by Luke Adams

Due to family-related commitments, veteran guard J.J. Barea had to leave Spanish club Estudiantes before the team’s season formally ends, he announced on Instagram (hat tip to Sportando). Barea signed back in January to spent the season in Spain after being waived by Dallas in December.

Reports earlier this year indicated that Barea’s contract with Estudiantes included an NBA out and that he remained “determined” to make it back to the NBA. Teams technically have until Sunday to sign free agents, and Barea would be postseason-eligible if he returns, but there has been no indication so far that an NBA club intends to sign him.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the league:

The NBA has formally announced the start times for its Saturday and Sunday games. There was reportedly some consideration given to having all of Sunday’s games start around the same time in the afternoon to avoid last-minute tanking, but logistical concerns – including those related to COVID testing – prevented that from happening. Most of Sunday’s games will tip off in the evening.
The NBA and NBPA announced on Wednesday that only one of the 497 players tested for COVID-19 since May 5 returned a new confirmed positive test. That’s an encouraging result with the playoffs around the corner — it’s the lowest weekly total among players since April 7-14.
Speaking of the playoffs and COVID-19, the NBA is still weighing how to handle positive tests in the postseason to avoid the risk of potential spread, according to Ben Rohrbach of Yahoo Sports, who says the league has discussed the possibility of delaying postseason games if necessary.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton (Insider link) have updated their future power rankings, which rank the NBA’s teams based on their projected success for the next three seasons beyond 2020/21. The Nets and Clippers sit atop the list, with the Knicks moving all the way up from No. 27 to No. 7. The Cavaliers continue to hold the bottom spot, while the Timberwolves have slipped to No. 29.

Hartenstein Likes Cavs, Hints He May Opt Out

May 13th, 2021 at 8:47am CST by Luke Adams

Cavaliers big man Isaiah Hartenstein, who holds a minimum-salary player option for 2021/22, said he’d like to remain in Cleveland, but hinted that he’s leaning toward opting out in the hopes of signing a new deal. “So far everything has been good,” Hartenstein said of his time with the Cavs, per Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. “Can’t really say what’s going to happen in the future, but I hope we can renegotiate something this summer and I can grow with the young guys. I think that would be a good experience.”

Lowe’s Latest: K. Williams, Payne, Monk, Burks, Hartenstein

May 12th, 2021 at 12:23pm CST by Luke Adams

For the 10th year in a row, ESPN’s Zach Lowe has named his end-of-season “Luke Walton All-Stars,” honoring overlooked rotation players and NBA journeymen who have impressed him most over the course of the year.

Nets guard Bruce Brown, Warriors forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Raptors teammates Yuta Watanabe and DeAndre’ Bembry are among the players who made Lowe’s list, which also includes a handful of interesting tidbits on some of his choices. Here are a few highlights:

Thunder forward Kenrich Williams, who resisted signing a two-way contract multiple times earlier in his career, has enjoyed a breakout year in Oklahoma City. Sources tell Lowe that several playoff teams expressed trade interest in Williams prior to March’s deadline, but he wanted to remain in OKC, where he’s under contract for two more years (both non-guaranteed).
Suns guard Cameron Payne told Lowe that he thought his NBA career might be over in 2020, when the Mavericks opted to sign Trey Burke over him for the summer restart after he had played well for Dallas’ G League affiliate. However, he got an opportunity shortly thereafter with Phoenix, in large part because head coach Monty Williams had gotten to know him during their time with the Thunder.
Another former first-round pick, Hornets guard Malik Monk, was concerned about his NBA career last year as well, following his suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy, his brother Marcus Monk told Lowe. The former Kentucky standout has enjoyed a career year while trying to let go of tension about his role, Lowe writes. “Guys who have success in college think the NBA is going to go a certain way,” Marcus said. “You think you’re invincible. Malik fell victim to that. I’m proud of how he matured.”
Before he signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Knicks last fall, Alec Burks discussed a deal with the Bulls, according to Lowe. Burks’ familiarity with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant from their time in Utah was a factor in his decision to choose New York.
After an underwhelming stint in Denver, Isaiah Hartenstein has played well for the Cavaliers, averaging 8.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 16 games (17.9 MPG). Lowe says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hartenstein turns down his minimum-salary player option for 2021/22 to seek a new deal.