- Cavaliers assistant Lindsay Gottlieb is leaving the franchise when the regular season is completed. She has been named USC’s head women’s coach, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. Gottlieb, who had been on Cleveland’s staff since 2019, was the first female head coach from a Power 5 conference to become an NBA assistant coach. She previously coached Cal for eight seasons.
- While it may have been heartwarming to see 38-year-old Anderson Varejao make a brief comeback in the NBA, the Cavaliers should have evaluated a younger player looking for a chance, Joe Vardon of The Athletic argues. The team could have signed someone who played in the G League or overseas and potentially found a diamond in the rough, Vardon writes, noting that some other teams have gotten productive minutes from players on 10-day contracts or rest-of-season deals.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.
The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:
- A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
- A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.
In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.
Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.
Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.
- Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
- Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
- Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
- Malik Monk (Hornets)
Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.
Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.
Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.
- John Collins (Hawks)
- Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.
Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.
- Bruce Brown (Nets)
- Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
- Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
- Duncan Robinson (Heat)
- Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)
Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.
Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).
After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.
Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- Attaching an asset to trade Kevin Love isn’t something the Cavaliers want to do, and buying him out with two years and $60MM left on his contract would be difficult and pricey, but Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com contends the team should attempt this offseason to find the least painful way to move on from Love. Sources tell Fedor that the two sides have yet to discuss a potential buyout.
- While Jason Lloyd of The Athletic believes the Cavaliers did well to nab Collin Sexton with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2018 draft, he doesn’t believe the third-year guard is worth a maximum-salary contract and suggests the team would be making a big mistake if it goes that high this offseason when Sexton becomes extension-eligible for the first time.
The Cavaliers recently signed veteran center Anderson Varejao to a 10-day contract, honoring the 38-year-old with a celebratory deal for his past stints.
Varejao, who played with Cleveland from 2004-16, was part of numerous playoff runs and appeared in 591 regular-season games with the team. He received a phone call from GM Koby Altman just last week, with Altman delivering some good news.
“He said, ‘Andy, let’s do this. We’re gonna bring you back,’” Varejao recalled, as relayed by Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. “It was a moment that I took to myself, like, ‘Wow, it’s really about to happen.’ It feels right.
“Cleveland is home for me. I love the city, I love the fans, I love the organization. I’m happy to be back. It’s not just the end of this season, it’s the 12 years that I’ve been here, that all counts to me. I was always ready to come back to be honest. I’m excited. It feels like I never left.”
There’s more from the Central Division today:
- In a separate story for Cleveland.com, Chris Fedor explores whether the Cavaliers can follow the Suns’ path in their rebuild. Phoenix holds the NBA’s best record at 47-18 after years of rebuilding, finally reaching the light at the end of the tunnel. The Suns defeated Cleveland 134-118 in overtime on Tuesday.
- Pistons forward Jerami Grant, who has been sidelined since April 26 with right knee soreness, is returning to the team’s lineup on Saturday, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports reports. Detroit will take on Philadelphia in a road contest that night.
- The Pacers‘ two-way contract with Amida Brimah is for two years, running through 2021/22, Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports tweets. Brimah, a 27-year-old center, signed that deal to join the club last month.
- Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton is aware of critical chirps from his detractors, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Fedor notes that Sexton wants to address his critics with his play. “They feel like I’m not doing good at something, I’m going to make sure I prove them wrong,” Sexton said. “They say I can’t be a point guard. Now these next stretch of games I’m going to go out there and show them I can do both — run the team and score the ball as well, and be efficient with it. I pretty much just take the criticism and run with it, and just have them look crazy down the stretch.”
The Cavaliers have officially brought back longtime center Anderson Varejão, announcing today in a press release that they’ve signed him to a 10-day contract. The move had been expected once Cleveland was granted a hardship exception, which allows the team to carry an extra player.
If it feels like it’s been a while since you’ve seen Varejão in the NBA, you’re not wrong — the 38-year-old big man played his last NBA game on February 2, 2017 before being waived by the Warriors a day later. He spent two years playing professionally in Brazil after that, but has been inactive since 2019.
The Cavaliers view their reunion with Varejão as a “celebratory contract” for a player who spent over a decade with the franchise, as Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com wrote last week. It’s probably safe to assume Varejão won’t be a regular rotation player for the Cavs during the next 10 days, but he’s expected to see a little action before he officially calls it a career.
“Andy embodies all that the city of Cleveland stands for and beyond, and we couldn’t be more excited to bring his experience, leadership and character back into this locker room,” Cavaliers general manager Koby Altman said in a statement. “His infectious work ethic and commitment to our community have earned him his rightful place in the fabric of this organization and all of Northeast Ohio, and have established a genuine admiration that resonates strongly throughout our passionate fan base.
“There are not many athletes who can impact the game of basketball the way Andy has over his career, and I feel that our players will benefit greatly from their daily interaction with him. We are thrilled to welcome Andy and family back to the Cavaliers.”
Varejão, who put out his own statement expressing gratitude to Altman and team owner Dan Gilbert for the opportunity, spent 13 seasons in the NBA, including over 11 with Cleveland. In 591 career regular season games with the franchise, he averaged 7.6 points and 7.5 rebounds per contest. He also played in 71 postseason games with the Cavs before finishing his career with the Warriors.
Because a contract signed using a hardship exception can only be a 10-day deal, Varejão’s contract – which will pay him $175,668 – will only run through May 13. Assuming the Cavs still meet the criteria for the hardship provision, they could sign him to a rest-of-season contract after that if they want to retain him for the last two games of the season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- Dylan Windler‘s latest injury will probably prevent him from playing in the Summer League, but the Cavaliers swingman could be cleared by the start of next season. That’s the conclusion of medical professionals contacted by The Athletic’s Kelsey Russo regarding Windler’s left knee surgery. He went under the knife last month to address ongoing patellar tendinopathy concerns. The typical recovery time for that type of surgery is about four months for an elite-level athlete, Russo was told.
- The Cavaliers are listing seven players as out for Tuesday’s game, including Darius Garland, Chris Fedor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets. Cleveland has been granted a hardship exception due to its injury issues.
2:31pm: The Cavaliers have been granted a hardship exception, tweets Kelsey Russo of The Athletic.
1:04pm: The Cavaliers have formally applied for a hardship exception, reports Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (Twitter link).
Unlike a disabled player exception – which gives teams extra cap flexibility and can only be used to replace a player who suffers a season-ending injury – a hardship exception allows a team to add a 16th player to its 15-man roster on a short-term basis. It can be granted by the league if a club has at least four players who have missed three or more games due to injury or illness and are expected to be out for at least two more weeks.
In Cleveland’s case, Dylan Windler (knee), Taurean Prince (ankle), and Matthew Dellavedova (neck) have all been sidelined for more than three games and are expected to miss the rest of the season. Larry Nance Jr. (thumb), Isaiah Hartenstein (concussion), and Lamar Stevens (concussion) have also missed the team’s last four games. Presumably, the Cavs expect at least one of Nance, Hartenstein, and Stevens to be out for the year as well, since the regular season ends in two weeks.
Assuming their request is granted, the Cavs intend to use the extra roster spot to sign veteran center Anderson Varejão. Varejão hasn’t played in the NBA since the 2016/17 season, but Cleveland wants to give the 38-year-old an opportunity to play his final professional minutes with the franchise with which he spent more than a decade from 2004-16.
If the Cavs receive a hardship exception early in the week, the expectation is that Varejão will sign a 10-day contract.
During the first half of the 2019/20 season, a report stated that if Cavaliers power forward Kevin Love was traded, he preferred to end up with his hometown Trail Blazers. Portland reportedly offered expiring contracts to Cleveland in exchange for Love, but were unable to complete a deal.
Love – who was born in Southern California and played for UCLA but grew up in Lake Oswego, Oregon – never publicly confirmed that Portland would have been his ideal landing spot. However, with the veteran forward and the Cavs increasingly likely to part ways sometime before his contract expires in 2023, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports asked Love during the most recent episode of his Posted Up podcast about the possibility of eventually joining the Blazers.
“Who wouldn’t want to play with Dame Lillard, first of all,” Love responded. “Dame, he’s special. He’s amazing. I claim Portland when they ask me where I’m from. It’s where I spent all of my formative years. I grew up in Portland. When people ask where I was born, obviously I say L.A. But Portland is always going to be a special place in my heart.
“Whether it be at the end of my career, whether it be in six months, or whatever it may be, if I was wearing a Portland jersey, that’s special,” Love continued. “That’s playing at home.”
Love still has two years and $60MM+ left on his contract with the Cavaliers, which will make a trade challenging, especially for Portland — if they’re going to take on that sort of money, the Blazers will be targeting an impact player in his prime.
Still, after Love’s latest on-court display of frustration, speculation has increased that the 32-year-old and the Cavs could be headed for a divorce sooner rather than later, even if that means Cleveland negotiating a buyout or accepting pennies on the dollar in a trade. If Portland could sign the former fifth overall pick at a discount once he eventually reaches free agency, the idea of a union between the two sides seems much more viable.
While he figures to be the subject of trade rumors again this offseason, Love is on track to finish the 2020/21 season with the Cavs. He has averaged 11.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per games in 21 contests (23.9 MPG) so far. Those numbers are all well below his career averages, as are his .404 FG% and .349 3PT%.