- A sign-and-trade is the most likely outcome for Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson when he becomes an unrestricted free agent, Chris Fedor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer opines. It’s increasingly likely that Andre Drummond will exercise his $28.7MM option, relegating Thompson to a bench role. The Cavs might want to bring back Thompson on a team-friendly contract, but if they draft a center that would also change the equation. Thompson has earned the right to test the market and a sign-and-trade could give him a chance to maximize his value and playing time, Fedor adds.
Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.
Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.
With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.
First round:
- Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
- Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
- New York Knicks (from Clippers)
- Boston Celtics (from Bucks)
Protected picks:
- Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
- Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)
Notes:
- The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.
Second round:
- Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
- Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
- Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
- New York Knicks (from Hornets)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
- Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
- Boston Celtics (from Nets)
- Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
- Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
- Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
- Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
- Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
- Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
- Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
- Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
- New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)
Protected picks:
- Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
- Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)
Notes:
- The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
- The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.
While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.
It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.
Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.
With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.
For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.
With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIN | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ATL | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.8 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| NYK | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.6 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| CHI | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| CHA | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| WSH | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| PHX | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 18.9 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| SAS | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| SAC* | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 7.6 | 0.1 |
| NOP* | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.0 | 2.3 |
| POR | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.
Bucks forward and reigning Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and his family are donating $100K to Fiserv Forum staff members to help them weather the financial storm during the league’s suspension of play, according to his Twitter account.
Antetokounmpo is following the lead of the Cavaliers’ Kevin Love, who pledged a similar amount to arena employees in Cleveland. The Pistons’ Blake Griffin is making the same donation to workers at Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena, according to the Detroit News’ Rod Beard.
Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson is pledging to cover the salaries for all of their arena staff workers for the next 30 days, Shams Charania of The Athletic tweets.
Numerous teams have come forward to say that they’ll keep their employees on the payroll during the stoppage as well as compensate full-time and part-time staff who work their games. However, many other workers in these arenas, such as security guards and concession workers, are often employed by other companies. The players donations would presumably provide assistance to those workers.
The Pistons added their name to the list of teams that will compensate workers on Thursday, according to the Detroit Free Press. The Wizards did the same, Candace Bucker of the Washington Post tweets. The Kings have also stepped forward, according to James Ham of NBC Sports, The Trail Blazers are formulating a plan to pay their part-time arena employees for the team’s nine remaining home games and will reassess the program in 30 days, Jason Quick of The Athletic tweets.
Rockets CEO Tad Brown vowed to make sure their employees would “take care of our part-time employees as well as all of our employees,” Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle relays.
The Mavericks, Hawks, Cavaliers, and Nets have already stated their intentions to provide financial support to employees and arena workers.
A moratorium agreement between the NBA and the NBPA will reportedly affect players on 10-day contracts, as Shams Charania of The Athletic said earlier today. Following up on that point, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter links) confirms that the clock will stop on the 10-day contracts that were active when the NBA suspended its season.
Presumably, Grizzlies forward Anthony Tolliver won’t be impacted. His 10-day deal with Memphis was set to expire on Wednesday night, the last night of game action before the suspension began. Once the moratorium is lifted and play resumes, he’ll likely have to sign a new 10-day contract or rest-of-season pact with the Grizzlies to remain with the team.
However, there were seven other players whose 10-day contracts had yet to run their course as of Wednesday night. Here are the affected players, with the number of days remaining on their deals noted in parentheses:
- Joe Chealey, Hornets (1)
- Donta Hall, Pistons (1)
- Chasson Randle, Warriors (1)
- Sir’Dominic Pointer, Cavaliers (2)
- Dragan Bender, Warriors (3)
- Sheldon Mac, Cavaliers (6)
- Joakim Noah, Clippers (7)
We’ll have to wait for official details on the moratorium agreement to confirm exactly how these 10-day deals will be handled.
Based on today’s reports though, it sounds like the contracts for players like Chealey, Hall, and Randle, which would have expired on Thursday night, will carry over to the day the season resumes. A player like Noah, who still had a week left on his 10-day contract, should play out that week following the resumption of the season.
Unless we learn otherwise, our roster counts page and 10-day tracker will assume these seven 10-day contracts remain active.
Some of the first comments Mavericks owner Mark Cuban made on Wednesday night after the NBA announced that it had suspended the 2019/20 season were focused on the team’s part-time, seasonal, and hourly employees, such as security guards and concession workers at the American Airlines Center. Cuban made it clear that the Mavs plan to take care of those employees.
“I reached out to the folks at the arena and our folks at the Mavs to find out what it would cost to support, financially support, people who aren’t going to be able to come to work,” Cuban told reporters, per Mark Medina of USA Today. “They get paid by the hour, and this was their source of income. So, we’ll do some things there. We may ask them to go do some volunteer work in exchange, but we’ve already started the process of having a program in place. I don’t have any details to give, but it’s certainly something that’s important to me.”
Since then, a handful of other teams have followed Cuban’s lead. Hawks owner Tony Ressler had been preparing for this possibility and had planned all along to compensate the team’s full-time and part-time employees who will have their jobs disrupted by the NBA’s hiatus, writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
“We have a pretty clear set of priorities in this kind of remarkable time that we’re living through,” Ressler said. “Protecting our fans, protecting our employees, and protecting the reputation of our league, all of which is important, but let there be no confusion, that means taking care of all of our employees, our full-time, our part-time.”
After Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie tweeted about taking care of non-salaried arena staff, team owner Joe Tsai responded that the Nets are working on a plan for those workers.
Cavaliers forward Kevin Love pledged $100K of his own money to aid arena employees displaced by the NBA’s stoppage, telling ESPN’s Dave McMenamin that he hopes “others will step up” as well. The Cavs announced (via Twitter) shortly thereafter that they’d be compensating all of their arena and event staff members as if every game and event at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse is still taking place.
While only a handful of teams have addressed the issue so far, I’d be surprised if that list doesn’t continue to grow in the coming days. Team owners and players will be affected financially by the suspension, but their losses likely won’t be as damaging in the short term as they would be for the lower-level employees who had been relying on the hourly wages earned at NBA events.
The Celtics, who played the Jazz in Boston last Friday, announced in a press release today that they’re having players and staffers who were in close contact with Utah players or who traveled to Milwaukee this week self-quarantine at least through the weekend.
All of the Celtics’ players – as well as staff members who came into close contact with Jazz players or exhibit COVID-19 symptoms – will be tested over the weekend, the team said in its release. After consulting with health experts, the Celtics believe it’s unlikely that any of their players came into contact with Rudy Gobert or Donovan Mitchell while they were contagious, but they want to take precautions nonetheless.
Meanwhile, the Pistons – who played Utah on Saturday in Detroit – announced today that there’s no indication the coronavirus was passed along to any of their players or staffers. However, they’re asking their players, coaches, basketball staff, and traveling party to self-isolate “until further notice” out of an abundance of caution.
A league source tells Rod Beard of The Detroit News (Twitter link) that coronavirus tests are available for Pistons players, but if they’re not exhibiting any symptoms, those tests are optional.
The Cavaliers, whose game with Utah took place back on March 2, believe based on conversations with the Jazz and health experts that Gobert and Mitchell did not have coronavirus when the Jazz visited Cleveland last week, league sources tell Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. No players or staff members have shown symptoms, so there are no plans for testing at this time, Fedor adds. If symptoms surface, that would change.
In an official statement, the Cavs confirmed that none of their players have experienced symptoms and indicated that the club isn’t currently under a mandatory quarantine.
The Knicks, whose game against Utah happened on March 4, are under the impression they’ll be self-quarantined, per Ian Begley and Alex Smith of SNY.tv. Marc Berman of The New York Post tweets that the Knicks remain at their hotel in Atlanta as of 1:00pm CT, with no concrete departure time set yet.
Earlier today, we passed along word that the Raptors, who played the Jazz on Monday, are being tested for coronavirus and have been advised to self-isolate for two weeks, while the Wizards – Utah’s opponent on February 28 – are also self-isolating for the next few days, just to be safe.
In the wake of Rudy Gobert‘s positive coronavirus test, the NBA has announced that its season will be suspended indefinitely, as we detailed earlier tonight.
While it remains to be seen exactly how long that suspension will last, one person who spoke to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press said the NBA expects the league to be shut down for at least two weeks. That source cautioned that the situation is very fluid.
As Dan Feldman of NBC Sports passes along, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said in a TV appearance tonight that there’s a feeling around the NBA that the season will eventually be resumed. It’s “clearly going to be a truncated schedule” though, according to Woj.
No games will take place while the suspension is ongoing, but Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said tonight that the NBA has told teams they can continue to practice, per Tim MacMahon of ESPN (Twitter link). Players have been told they shouldn’t have any visitors from out of town, MacMahon adds.
Here’s more on how the coronavirus situation has shaken up the NBA:
- After Gobert was tested for COVID-19 on Wednesday, Jazz and Thunder officials worked together to make sure no Oklahoma City players had any contact or exposure to Utah players, tweets Wojnarowski. According to ESPN’s Royce Young (Twitter links), Thunder players were tested tonight for fever, but not for the coronavirus. Jazz players are still expected to be tested tonight, however — the team is currently quarantined in OKC, per Woj (Twitter link).
- According to reports from Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald (Twitter link) and ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, players from teams that have played the Jazz in the last 10 days have been advised to self-quarantine. That list of clubs includes the Cavaliers, Knicks, Celtics, Pistons, and Raptors.
- Knicks players aren’t being tested yet, according to Steve Popper of Newsday (Twitter link). Blake Murphy of The Athletic tweets that Raptors players are getting tested. Cavaliers coaches and players haven’t yet heard about potential testing, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com.
As we relayed earlier today, the Warriors‘ Thursday contest vs. Brooklyn is on track to become the first NBA game played without fans in attendance as a result of the coronavirus epidemic.
Discussing the situation today with reporters, Warriors president and COO Rick Welts acknowledged that it will be a costly adjustment for the franchise. As Nick Friedell of ESPN tweets, Welts said not playing Thursday’s game will result in a “multi-million dollar loss” for the Warriors, adding that the number would increase to the “tens of millions” if the team continues to play behind closed doors following its road trip.
Although the lost revenue for one Warriors game won’t have a massive impact on the basketball related income (BRI) for the NBA as a whole, it will become a more significant issue if more teams are forced to play games without fans, which seems likely.
Welts and GM Bob Myers confirmed today that the league’s BRI will be affected and that it could have an impact on the salary cap going forward, though it remains to be seen to what degree that impact will be felt (video link via Anthony Slater of The Athletic). Between this situation and the NBA’s controversy with China, the cap may not increase next season by nearly as much as initially expected.
Here are more news items and notes related to the coronavirus outbreak:
- The NBA has considered the possibility of pushing back its calendar in response to the coronavirus crisis, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic. Sources tell Amick that the NBA has been asking teams to provide its arena schedule through July. Currently, the season is expected to end no later than June 21 (if the Finals go seven games).
- The NBA and its players’ union spoke on Wednesday to discuss ways to continue the season without cancelling games, per ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski. It appears increasingly likely that teams around the league will be required to play in empty arenas, with the NBA bracing for losses “in the hundreds of millions of dollars,” sources tell ESPN.
- After initially recommending against mass gatherings, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said today that the state intends to issue an order saying that no spectators will be allowed at major sporting events, tweets Aaron Portzline of The Athletic. That will affect the Cavaliers, though they’re not scheduled to return home until March 24.
- After the D.C. Department of Health advised against holding non-essential gatherings of 1,000+ people, the Wizards‘ ownership group issued a statement saying that they plan to move forward with allowing fans to attend home games for now. So far, teams have been reluctant to do anything drastic unless they’re faced with a full-fledged ban from local government or an edict from the league.
- Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) hears that at least half of the NBA’s teams have pulled their advance scouts off the road due to coronavirus concerns.
- In case you missed it, the NCAA announced this afternoon that this year’s men’s and women’s tournaments will be closed to fans.
Here are Tuesday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:
- The Wizards announced today (via Twitter) that they assigned Admiral Schofield and Gary Payton II to their G League affiliate, the Capital City Go-Go, before recalling them later in the day. According to the NBAGL’s official assignment log, the team did the same for rehabbing point guard John Wall.
- The Rockets have assigned rookie guard Chris Clemons to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, tweets Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. Ben McLemore and Eric Gordon are both available for Tuesday’s game vs. Minnesota, reducing Houston’s need to carry Clemons on its active roster.
- The Cavaliers assigned rookie forward Sir’Dominic Pointer to its G League affiliate, the Canton Charge, per the NBAGL’s official assignment log. Pointer is on a 10-day deal that runs through this Friday night — this is his second G League assignments since he signed that contract.