Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Dallas Mavericks’ Future

December 10th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After throwing in the towel on the Kristaps Porzingis experiment at last season’s trade deadline and then watching Jalen Brunson leave for New York as a free agent during the offseason, the Mavericks don’t have a great candidate on their roster to emerge as a second star alongside Luka Doncic.

Christian Wood is a gifted scorer and rebounder, but his defensive shortcomings limit his two-way impact — Dallas hasn’t even been comfortable inserting him into the starting lineup for that reason. Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Maxi Kleber are among the Mavericks’ other top rotation players who are solid in their roles, but not won’t be making any All-Star teams.

As great as Doncic is, the Mavs probably need to add at least one more impact player to be a legitimate title contender, but they’re not in a great position to make that sort of trade this season. They owe their 2023 first-round pick to New York as a result of the original Porzingis trade and have traded away four future second-rounders. Their roster also lacks a top young prospect who could be the centerpiece of a trade for a star.

Dallas’ future outlook was the primary topic of discussion on the most recent episode of Brian Windhorst’s Hoop Collective podcast. As Windhorst and ESPN colleagues Tim MacMahon and Tim Bontemps observed, the Mavs will be facing increased pressure to connect on their next big roster move, given that Doncic is now on his second contract.

While it wasn’t an ideal outcome, the Mavs could afford to swing and miss on Porzingis because they made that move while Doncic was still on his rookie scale contract and they knew they’d be able to extend him beyond that. Now that his rookie scale extension – which has an opt-out after year four – has begun, the clock is ticking for the franchise to prove to the All-NBA guard that he should want a long-term future in Dallas.

“I think they have a two-year window here,” MacMahon said (hat tip to RealGM). “This season and next season going into that summer (of 2024). I think they’ve got a two-year window where, you know, like Milwaukee did with Giannis (Antetokounmpo), I think in that window they really need to convince Luka that he has a chance to contend year in and year out right here in Dallas.

“If they can’t get it done in that two-year window, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that he’s going to force a trade or ask for a trade. I’m just saying at that point if he’s not happy, he has all the leverage in the world if he would be looking to leave.

“I’m also not going to pretend like I know his innermost thoughts, but obviously I’m around this team on a regular basis. I know people who do know Luka well. I don’t think Luka will look for reasons to leave. I think he’d be perfectly happy spending his entire career in Dallas. But if he doesn’t have to look for reasons and they’re slamming him in the face, that’s a problem.

“He’s also a guy who is a ruthless competitor, which means he loves winning. He’s used to winning. He won championships with Real Madrid. He’s won a EuroBasket championship with the Slovenian national team. He also detests losing. Like, can’t handle it. Whether it’s cards, ping pong, but especially NBA games.”

MacMahon went on to say that he thinks it will be “awfully hard” for the Mavs to acquire a second star as long as they still owe the Knicks a first-round pick. That means Dallas could end up waiting until the 2023 offseason or the 2024 deadline to make its next big move, especially since more stars could land on the trade block by that time.

We want to know what you think. Is there a path for the Mavs to contend for a title by simply tweaking their roster and making smaller moves, or do they need to find a way to acquire another impact player? Should they be worried at all about Doncic’s eventual flight risk at this point, or are they in a strong position to prove to him that they can be a perennial contender?

Head to the comment section below to let us know your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Atlanta Hawks

December 9th, 2022 at 9:03pm CST by Rory Maher

The Hawks made a major trade in the offseason, dealing away unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027, a first-round pick swap in 2026, and Charlotte’s 2023 protected first-rounder to acquire All-Star point guard Dejounte Murray from the Spurs. Atlanta started the season strong, winning seven of 10 games, but has gone just 6-10 since and now sits at .500 (13-13).

A second trade received fewer headlines, but it was still significant, because they moved off Kevin Huerter‘s contract in order to dip under the luxury tax, and he was an important floor-spacer and ball-mover for Atlanta. The main player they received in return, Justin Holiday, has not been very effective, while Huerter is having a career year for the Kings.

As ESPN’s Zach Lowe noted in his “10 Things” column today (Insider link), the fit between Murray and star point guard Trae Young has been a little shaky thus far. Young opened the season actively moving without the ball, which is key with two ball-dominant players sharing the floor, but has basically abandoned it since. Lowe believes “something is off with the Hawks,” and there’s a chance that their season “could teeter into instability.”

As John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, the Hawks’ record doesn’t look too far off external expectations, but he also thinks “there is an impending sense that not all is well.” He lists several reasons for that, including Young’s reported tiff with head coach Nate McMillan last week and a worrisome shot profile (29th in 3PTA and 29th in 3PT%), among others.

According to Hollinger, perhaps the biggest factor in that “sense” has been Young’s poor start to the 2022/23 season. His counting stats look great — he’s averaging 27.5 points and 9.5 assists through 23 games. However, he’s shooting career lows of 47.0% on twos and 28.9% on threes, and until that changes, league observers will be keeping a close eye on the Hawks and what they might do at the trade deadline.

Entering Friday’s back-and-forth loss at Brooklyn, the Hawks ranked 21st in the league in offense, which a major drop-off — they were second last season. The defense has improved substantially, going from 26th up to 12th, but they still have a negative net rating (-1.0) despite being a .500 team.

With Murray expected to be sidelined for the next two weeks with a sprained ankle, and starting forwards De’Andre Hunter (hip) and John Collins (ankle) still sidelined, the spotlight will be on McMillan and Young to keep the Hawks afloat, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic.

Amick notes that Murray did his part last week when Young and the two forwards were out against Denver, leading the team to a surprising victory with 34 points and eight assists. Amick makes the case that Murray has been more important to Atlanta’s success this season than Young, recording a +6.5 net rating versus Young’s +1.5.

Bogdan Bogdanovic‘s return to the lineup should help the shooting numbers stabilize and take some pressure off Young — he’s a career 38.2% marksman from deep on high volume, and has only played four games after offseason knee surgery. But there are still major depth question marks aside from the fit concerns, particularly at guard and forward.

This year’s first-round pick, wing AJ Griffin, has played well overall, but he’s only 19 years old and having a rookie as a key rotation piece is a little worrisome for a team hoping to contend. Last year’s first-rounder, forward Jalen Johnson, has looked pretty rough around the edges in his first real chances at extended playing time.

We want to know what you think. Are you concerned about the Hawks? Do you get the feeling that “something is off,” like Lowe and Hollinger? Or do you think they just need to get healthy and have more time to adjust? Is the roster good enough to contend as constructed? If changes are needed, what do you think they should do?

Head to the comments section and let us know what you think of the Hawks and their chances for the rest of the season.

Community Shootaround: New Orleans Pelicans

December 4th, 2022 at 10:12am CST by Luke Adams

After picking up a third straight win – and eighth in their last 10 games – on Friday in San Antonio, the Pelicans have a 14-8 record, which puts them in a tie for the No. 2 spot in the West, just one game back of the top-seeded Suns.

New Orleans was expected to take a significant step forward this season with Zion Williamson returning from the foot injury that sidelined him for all of 2021/22, so the team’s strong start isn’t a major surprise. Still, even fans and observers who expected the Pelicans to emerge as a playoff contender have to be impressed by what they’ve seen so far, as Will Guillory of The Athletic writes.

Despite having their “Big Three” of Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum fully available for just 10 of 22 games so far, the Pelicans have the fourth-best net rating in the NBA (+6.5) and the second-best mark in the West.

Their success can largely be attributed to their depth, with starters Jonas Valanciunas and Herbert Jones playing important roles, while Trey Murphy, Larry Nance Jr., Jose Alvarado, Devonte’ Graham, Naji Marshall, and even raw rookie Dyson Daniels all play productive minutes too.

Williamson, meanwhile, appears to be emerging as the superstar he was long expected to be come after being drafted first overall in 2019, averaging an outstanding 26.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.2 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.4 BPG on 67.5% shooting in his last five games.

“We are a special team. I think as the season goes on, the world will get to see that,” Williamson said, per Guillory.

If the Pelicans can get their three stars on the court at the same time more often, they’ll look even more “special.” In the 172 minutes they’ve played together so far this season, Williamson, Ingram, and McCollum have a net rating of +16.5, per NBA.com.

Despite the Pelicans’ impressive play so far, oddsmakers are still relatively bearish on their chances of making a deep postseason run. BetOnline.ag gives the Pels only the seventh-best odds to come out of the West, with the Suns, Warriors, Clippers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Mavericks all ahead of them.

Perhaps that’s not surprising, given that New Orleans was just 36-46 last season and hasn’t won a playoff series since 2018. Still, there’s a recent blueprint that Willie Green‘s club will be looking to follow — that blueprint was established by Green’s old team in Phoenix.

The 2019/20 Suns went just 34-39, but finished that season on a tear and then made the NBA Finals the following year in their first postseason appearance in over a decade. The Pelicans have looked like a different team since acquiring McCollum and Nance at last season’s deadline and especially since getting Williamson back. If they win one playoff series, maybe more will follow.

As Guillory points out, the next six weeks may shape the consensus on just how high New Orleans’ ceiling in 2022/23 is. Of the team’s next 22 games, 15 are against clubs that are .500 or better, including three matchups with the West-leading Suns in the next two weeks. If the Pels make it through that stretch and continue to hold a top-four seed in the West by mid-January, it’ll be a lot easier to view them as a legitimate contender.

We want to know what you think. How high is the Pelicans’ ceiling this season? Are they a real threat to come out of the West, or are they still a year or two away from making a deep playoff run?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Community Shootaround: Sub-.500 Playoff Hopefuls

December 2nd, 2022 at 1:23pm CST by Luke Adams

So far this season, 19 of the NBA’s 30 teams have played at least .500 basketball, and many of the clubs that have fallen short of that mark are ones we expected to do so. The Magic, Pistons, Hornets, Rockets, Spurs, and Thunder, for instance, were widely considered during the preseason to be lottery-bound.

If we set aside those six teams, along with the 19 who are .500 or better, five clubs remain. These are the teams that entered the season expecting to be in the playoffs and have fallen short of their expectations so far.

Let’s start with the most obvious one of the five: the Lakers got off to a miserable start to the season, losing their first five games and 10 of their first 12. They’ve bounced back to some extent as of late, winning six of their last eight contests, but three of those victories came against San Antonio, and L.A. is still just 8-12 overall, good for 13th in a competitive Western Conference.

With Russell Westbrook adapting well to a sixth man role, Lonnie Walker enjoying a breakout year, Anthony Davis looking like a superstar again, and LeBron James back in the lineup following a groin strain, there’s some reason for optimism in Los Angeles. But it’s still not clear if the supporting cast is strong enough for the Lakers to make a real run, and it remains to be seen whether the front office has the appetite to move one or two first-round picks to acquire real upgrades.

While they’re ahead of the Lakers in the standings, the 10-11 Mavericks are currently out of the play-in picture too, holding the No. 11 seed in the West. Like L.A., Dallas has a top-heavy roster, with Luka Doncic submitting an MVP-caliber performance this fall. But Doncic can’t do it all himself, and the Mavs’ supporting cast beyond Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie hasn’t produced like the team had hoped.

Over in the East, the Heat (10-12), Knicks (10-12), and Bulls (9-12) find themselves out of the top nine and vying for the No. 10 spot in the standings.

Of these three teams, Miami probably has the most reason for optimism. The Heat have been hit hard by the injury bug in the first quarter of the season, but appear to be getting healthier, with All-Star forward Jimmy Butler on the verge of returning. This iteration of the Heat may not get back to the NBA Finals like the 2020 squad did, or even to the Eastern Finals like last year’s team, but it would be pretty shocking if they missed the postseason, given how much talent is on the roster.

Chicago and New York, meanwhile, were both considered borderline playoff teams entering the season — oddsmakers had them as the East’s ninth- and 10th-best teams ahead of training camps. So it’s perhaps not a surprise that they’re both hovering around .500 and looking more like play-in contenders than serious candidates for a top-six seed.

Still, both teams had higher aspirations than simply contending for a play-in spot, so it will be interesting to see how they approach the trade deadline if their inconsistent performances continue.

Will the Knicks put some of their future first-round picks back on the table in search of an impact player after missing out on Donovan Mitchell? Will the Bulls – who have already traded away two of their own future first-rounders – continue to push their chips into the middle of the table or will they pull back and hope for the possible return of point guard Lonzo Ball can help fuel a second-half surge?

We want to know where you stand on these five teams. Do you expect the Lakers, Mavericks, Heat, Bulls, or Knicks to finish the season as a top-six seed, securing an automatic playoff berth? Are you counting on some of them to have to clinch postseason spots via the play-in tournament? Will some finish outside the play-in altogether as bottom-five teams in their respective conferences?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Injuries

November 27th, 2022 at 8:31pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Scan the headlines on our website and most of them involve injuries to star players.

Ankle sprains. Toe sprains. Calf strains. Knee soreness. Shin problems. Back problems. You name it, somebody in the trainer’s room has got it.

There are always going to be injuries during the course of a season but it seems as if today’s players are more susceptible, despite supposed advancements in training methods and dietary practices.

Coaches are more than willing to give their regulars an occasional game off, something that commissioner Adam Silver recently addressed concern about, considering that many fans buy tickets to see the best players in action. Early this week, Warriors coach Steve Kerr rested his Big Three and Andrew Wiggins and it wasn’t the only time during the first six weeks of the season he’s done that.

Yet the extra rest doesn’t seem to have any impact on keeping players healthy.

Look back 20 seasons ago and you may be surprised to see how rare it was for top players to sit out a game. Among the top 50 scorers in the 2002/03 season, 32 of them missed five or fewer games during the regular season.

Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Kevin Garnett, Allan Houston, Antawn Jamison, Jalen Rose and Jamal Mashburn – all among the top 15 in scoring – appeared in every game. Tim Duncan and Stephon Marbury missed only one game apiece, and Dirk Nowitzki sat out just two games.

The schedule back then was more difficult than it is now. There were more back-to-backs and occasions when teams played four games in five nights. Yet players across the league regularly answered the bell and suited up.

Now, it’s very rare for any player to appear in all 82 games, let alone the stars of the team.

That brings us to today’s question: Why do think so many players are getting injured and nursing ailments? Do you believe current training methods and practices are flawed, or are there other factors at play?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Early Check-In On MVP Race

November 25th, 2022 at 11:22am CST by Luke Adams

Every NBA team has played between 16 and 20 games so far this fall, meaning we’re nearly at the one-quarter mark of the 2022/23 season. While it’s too early to draw any sweeping conclusions about how the rest of the season will play out, enough time has passed for a handful of stars to emerge as early frontrunners for this season’s MVP award.

In his weekly look at the MVP race, Michael C. Wright of NBA.com highlights Nuggets center and reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who has moved into his top three this week after returning in style from a stint in the NBA’s health and safety protocols. In his two games since coming back, Jokic has racked up 70 points, 19 rebounds, and 19 assists with a scorching .742 FG%, increasing his full-season averages to 22.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 9.0 APG with a .627 FG%.

While Jokic isn’t scoring or rebounding at quite the same rate that he did in his past two MVP seasons, his field goal percentage and assists per game would be career highs, and it seems like he’s just hitting his stride for a Denver team making a push for a top spot in the Western Conference standings — at 11-7, the Nuggets are just a half-game behind the No. 1 Suns.

Still, Jokic ranks behind two players that remain atop Wright’s list for a second consecutive week. At No. 1, it’s Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, who leads the NBA with an astonishing 34.0 points per game on a career-best 50.3% from the floor.

As usual, Doncic is filling up the box score, with 9.0 RPG, 8.1 APG, and a career-best 1.8 SPG. He hasn’t gotten a ton of help from his teammates so far, so Dallas is just 9-8 on the season, but the team’s No. 10 seed is somewhat misleading. The West’s top 10 teams are separated by just two games.

Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, the No. 2 player on Wright’s list, has his team’s performance working in his favor. At 14-4, Boston comfortably holds the NBA’s best record in the early going, and Tatum has clearly been the player most responsible for that success. He’s posting a career-best 30.6 PPG to go along with 7.9 RPG, 4.7 APG (a career high), 1.3 BPG (also a career high), and a rock-solid .472/.353/.868 shooting line.

Interestingly, none of these three players are the betting favorite at BetOnline.ag. The site has Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo as the frontrunner at +270, just ahead of Doncic (+275) and Tatum (+280), with Jokic all the way down at +2800 (potential voter fatigue is likely factored into those odds).

Antetokounmpo, the No. 4 player on Wright’s list, certainly has as strong a case as ever. He has missed a little time, but in 14 games, he’s putting up a career-high 30.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting, plus 11.6 RPG and 5.5 APG. He also might be the best defender of the top MVP candidates, with one Defensive Player of the Year award already on his résumé.

Warriors guard Stephen Curry, Wright’s No. 5 choice and the fourth betting favorite on BetOnline, should become a serious contender if Golden State starts winning a few more games. The Warriors are below .500 for now (9-10), but Curry has been as good as ever, with 31.6 PPG on a career-high .524 FG%. He’s also contributing 7.2 APG and 6.6 RPG (a career high) while making an eye-popping 5.2 threes per game at a 44.4% clip.

Grizzlies guard Ja Morant, Sixers center Joel Embiid, and Nets forward Kevin Durant are among the stars capable of making an MVP push, and dark-horse candidates like Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell and Suns guard Devin Booker will force their way into the conversation if they continue playing like they have and their teams keep winning.

We want to know what you think. Who would your MVP pick be if the season ended today? Who do you expect to strengthen their case as the season progresses? Who would you put your money on as the year-end winner at this point?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Who Could Benefit From Change Of Scenery?

November 22nd, 2022 at 9:25am CST by Luke Adams

We’re at the five-week mark of the NBA season and a number of players who expected to play key roles for their respective teams have found themselves out of the rotation this fall.

Knicks wing Evan Fournier, for instance, began the season as a starter, was moved into a reserve role, and then was taken off the court altogether — he hasn’t appeared in any of New York’s last five games. Kings big man Richaun Holmes, who opened the season as the team’s primary backup center, has since ceded that role to Chimezie Metu and has played just six garbage-time minutes in Sacramento’s last seven contests.

Fournier and Holmes are two of the veterans named by John Hollinger of The Athletic as players who could benefit from a change of scenery. However, both are on eight-figure multiyear contracts that won’t necessarily be easy to move. Heat forward Duncan Robinson, another player on Hollinger’s list, fits into that category too.

Many of the other players Hollinger identifies as potential change-of-scenery candidates are younger and cheaper. Sixers swingman Matisse Thybulle and Pelicans big man Jaxson Hayes were both eligible for rookie scale extensions prior to this season, but didn’t sign them and are now on track for restricted free agency in 2023. Hayes has barely played for New Orleans, while Thybulle’s minutes have been inconsistent, even as several Philadelphia players battle the injury bug.

Magic wing R.J. Hampton is another former first-round pick on Hollinger’s list who is in a contract year, though it’s because Orlando turned down its 2023/24 team option, not because he’s in his fourth year. As Hollinger observes, Hampton has actually played reasonably well when given the chance this season, knocking down 43.8% of his three-point attempts, but the Magic’s option decision signals that he’s probably not in the club’s long-term plans, and it’s unclear how often he’ll get to play once Orlando’s injured guards (including Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz) get healthy.

The other players mentioned by Hollinger include Hawks big man John Collins, once again the subject of trade rumors; Celtics guard Payton Pritchard, a victim of a deep backcourt who could be a trade chip if Boston seeks frontcourt help; Rockets guard Eric Gordon, stuck on one of the NBA’s worst teams for a third straight year; and Hornets center Mark Williams, a lottery pick who has been tearing up the G League but has only played 13 minutes in three games at the NBA level (Hollinger doesn’t expect Charlotte to trade Williams, but would like to see the struggling club give him a shot at the NBA level).

We want to know what you think. Which players on Hollinger’s list would benefit most from a change of scenery? And which other players around the NBA are good candidates to flourish if given a new opportunity?

Head below to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Sacramento Kings

November 17th, 2022 at 10:36am CST by Luke Adams

After missing the playoffs for a 16th straight season in 2021/22, the Kings entered the offseason focused on hiring a new head coach and adding complementary pieces around De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.

While Fox and Sabonis are supremely talented offensive players, neither is an elite three-point marksman or a shut-down defender, so shooting and defense were Sacramento’s top summer priorities.

The Kings addressed their outside shooting in all sorts of different ways, drafting Keegan Murray with the fourth overall pick in June, then signing Malik Monk in free agency and acquiring Kevin Huerter in a trade with the Hawks.

Unfortunately, of those three players, only Murray is considered a strong defender, but the Kings did hire a head coach – Mike Brown – who built his reputation on his defensive acumen, so the hope was that he could get more out of the personnel than another coach might have.

Of course, if the personnel isn’t right, there’s only so much that a head coach and a rookie can do to upgrade a defense, so it’s perhaps no surprise that the Kings haven’t made major strides on that end of the floor so far this season — their 114.0 defensive rating ranks 26th out of 30 teams.

However, as Dan Devine of Yahoo Sports writes, Sacramento’s offense has emerged as one of the league’s most explosive units — the team’s 116.5 offensive rating leads all Western Conference clubs and ranks second in the entire NBA. That offense was firing on all cylinders in a statement game on Tuesday, as the Kings racked up 153 points – a league-high so far this season – and blew out the Nets in their first TNT home game since 2018, notes Anthony Slater of The Athletic.

The Kings, who were missing Murray to open the season, got off to an 0-4 start, but have been one of the NBA’s most impressive teams since then. They’ve won seven of their last nine games, and their only two losses were by a single basket in Miami and Golden State. As Devine observes, both losses also featured controversial late-game calls, as the Heat benefited from a missed travel on Tyler Herro, while the Warriors got away with a missed Klay Thompson foul on Huerter’s last-second attempt to tie the game.

While the subpar defense remains a concern, Sacramento’s high-powered offense could make up for it, allowing the Kings to outscore their opponents in shootouts on any given night.

Breaking down the team’s offensive performance so far, Devine cautions that some regression is probably coming — Huerter’s 52.6% three-point mark and Fox’s 84.0% conversion rate at the rim are among the numbers unlikely to stay that high.

Still, it looks like the pieces fit together well, with shooters like Huerter, Monk, Murray, Harrison Barnes, and Terence Davis proving to be ideal complements to Fox and Sabonis. Sacramento currently ranks fourth in three-pointers per game and seventh in three-point percentage — last season, the team was 25th and 24th, respectively, in those categories.

Kevin Durant, who was with Brown in Golden State for three years, was impressed by what he saw on Tuesday and understands why the former Warriors assistant wanted to coach the Kings.

“They got a deep team,” Durant said, per Slater. “They got a lot of guys that can play real minutes on any NBA team. They got 10, 11 guys that can do that so you step into a situation like that, you got two All-Star caliber in Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, that’s a great, great team to build with. So It was a great choice by Mike to choose the Sacramento Kings and it was great by Sacramento to give Mike a chance. He’s been a part of championship groups the last six, seven years. Just a perfect pairing, I think.”

Of course, the big question is whether this version of the Kings is good enough to end the longest active playoff drought in the four major U.S. sports. While some playoff hopefuls have gotten off to shaky starts, the Western Conference is still deep and competitive, especially with clubs like the Trail Blazers and Jazz outperforming expectations in the early going.

The Kings’ 7-6 record puts them eighth in the conference for the time being, but the Clippers, Timberwolves, and Warriors are all behind them, with the potential to play a whole lot better than they have so far.

We want to know what you think. Has the Kings’ recent run turned you into a believer, or are the defensive holes still a major concern? Do you view Sacramento as a probable play-in team? Do you expect them to be one of the eight playoff teams in the West for the first time since 2006?

Head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts on the Kings!

Community Shootaround: Early Impressions Of 2022 Rookie Class

November 13th, 2022 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Up until about 24 hours before the 2022 NBA draft, it was widely believed that Paolo Banchero would be the third player off the board, with Jabari Smith considered likely to be the Magic‘s pick at No. 1 and Chet Holmgren the favorite to follow him at No. 2. Banchero was expected to be selected third overall by the Rockets.

Instead, it was Banchero who was the first player drafted, while Holmgren still went to the Thunder and Smith headed to Houston rather than Orlando.

Through the first month of the 2022/23 regular season, it’s looking like the Magic made the right call.

Banchero has been one of the NBA’s most productive rookies in years in the early going, averaging an impressive 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in 34.7 minutes per game. Smith, meanwhile, has struggled mightily, making just 31.3% of his shots from the field en route to modest averages of 10.3 PPG and 6.8 RPG in 29.7 MPG. And while it may be unfair to dock Holmgren for having suffered a season-ending foot injury before training camps begin, his slight frame was considered a possible red flag for teams picking at the top of the draft.

Banchero is the odds-on favorite for the Rookie of the Year award at this point, but it looks like he’ll face some stiff competition from a couple players selected just outside of the top three.

Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin has arguably been just as impressive as Banchero in his first 12 NBA games, averaging 19.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 2.3 APG with a sparkling .456/.453/.831 shooting line in just 28.1 MPG. If Indiana continues to bring him off the bench and he keeps playing at his current level, he could be a legitimate threat to win two end-of-season awards — Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year.

Pistons guard Jaden Ivey, meanwhile, hasn’t been scoring at quite the same rate as Banchero or Mathurin, but he ranks third among rookies in points per game (15.8 PPG), fourth in rebounding (5.1 RPG), and first in assists (3.8 APG). It’s not just a case of him benefiting from a high usage rate either, as his shooting percentages (.446/.352/.727) are very solid for a 20-year-old adjusting to the NBA.

No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray is off to a slightly slower start after returning from a bout with COVID-19, but the Kings forward has averaged 11.9 PPG on .446/.361/.778 shooting and could continue to boost those numbers as the season progresses.

It’s still very early in the season, and as we saw a year ago with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, it sometimes takes highly touted rookies a little time to adjust to the NBA and begin scoring efficiently, so we could see youngsters like Smith and Murray come on strong in the second half.

For now though, we want to know your initial thoughts on this year’s rookie class.

Did you expect Banchero and Mathurin to be this good this fast, or have they surprised you? Do you think they’ll come back to earth while other rookies get hot, or will the Rookie of the Year race ultimately come down to the Magic forward and the Pacers guard? Are you worried about Smith, or do you expect him to be fine after he endures some growing pains? Are there other rookies in this class – including perhaps Shaedon Sharpe, Jeremy Sochan, or Tari Eason – who have impressed you so far?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Utah Jazz

November 9th, 2022 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

When our readers voted on teams’ win totals for the 2022/23 season in September, the Jazz were given an over/under of 25.5 wins and voters overwhelmingly took the “under” on that number. After trading away Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Royce O’Neale in the offseason, Utah was considered one of the frontrunners in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, with a good chance to be a bottom-five team in the NBA.

Instead, three weeks into the regular season, the Jazz hold the top spot in the Western Conference, with their 9-3 record putting them a full game ahead of Phoenix, Denver, and Portland, all of whom are 7-3.

And it’s not as if Utah has been beating up on fellow lottery-bound teams. The Jazz have road wins in Minnesota, New Orleans, and Los Angeles (over both the Lakers and Clippers). They’ve beaten Memphis twice and Denver once, and they’re undefeated (5-0) at home.

As Ryan McDonald of The Deseret News notes, the Jazz’s offense has been one of the NBA’s best, ranking third in the league in points per 100 possessions. And that offensive production is coming from newcomers and incumbents alike.

Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton, acquired in the Mitchell blockbuster, are two of the team’s top three scorers, with Markkanen (21.9 PPG) leading the way. Jordan Clarkson (18.3 PPG on .444/.421/.731 shooting) and Mike Conley (12.5 PPG, 7.5 APG, .426 3PT%) have also been important contributors, with Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt playing key roles too.

According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, the fact that the Jazz are having some success instead of bottoming out in the early part of the season hasn’t come as a surprise to Utah players, who believed there was still plenty of talent on the revamped roster.

“We just kind of looked around (in training camp) and said we’re not anything what they say we are,” Conley said. “We have too many good players to tank. We knew from day one. This wasn’t a rebuild. We told ourselves that we aren’t that bad, and the guys locked in on that. We had a collective belief system and we knew we had a chance to have a good start.”

“Mike was preaching that to us,” Sexton told Jones. “It gave us a lot of confidence. Plus, there were so many people writing us off that we wanted to come out and play with a chip on our shoulders.”

Conley, who describes the Jazz as “gritty and mean and carefree at the same time,” joked to Tim MacMahon of ESPN that if the front office wants to lose, “They’ve got to get rid of me too.” While the veteran guard made the statement in jest, it raises an interesting question: What’s next for the NBA’s most surprising team?

If CEO Danny Ainge, general manager Justin Zanik, and Jazz management are committed to securing a top pick in the 2023 draft, perhaps more moves could be coming — Clarkson and Conley are the returning veterans who are the most obvious trade candidates, and it’s possible the team could flip some of the newly added pieces, such as Olynyk and Beasley.

But continuing the roster teardown would risk upsetting the positive culture and chemistry that new head coach Will Hardy and the new Jazzmen are building in Utah. Perhaps the front office will look at the roster, recognize there’s still not enough talent there to make the Jazz a legitimate contender this season, and count on the team coming down to earth on its own after a hot start.

Remaining in the play-in mix for the rest of the season could create some positive vibes heading into 2023/24 while still putting the team in position to land a pick in the top half of what should be a deep 2023 draft.

We want to know what you think. How real is this 9-3 start in Utah? Can the Jazz be a playoff team this season? Should they stick to their offseason plan and keep selling, or is standing pat (or even exploring buying) the right call at this point?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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