Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Top Prospects In NCAA Tournament

Many of the top draft prospects got a chance to display their skills in the NCAA Tournament’s first and second rounds.

Those performances might help, or damage, their draft stock as they face top competition and defenses designed to hold them down.

Among that group were the three big men considered contenders for the No. 1 overall pick – Gonzaga Chet Holmgren, Auburn’s Jabari Smith and Duke’s Paolo Banchero. The highest-rated guard, Purdue’s Jaden Ivey (No. 4 on ESPN’s Best Available list), was also in action.

Here’s a quick breakdown how they fared:

  • Holmgren – The seven-foot freshman had a huge game against overmatched Georgia State, racking up 19 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and seven blocks. He had a much quieter outing offensively against Memphis, taking only seven shots, while finishing with nine points, nine rebounds, two assists and four blocks.
  • Smith – The 6’10’’ freshman had a strong performance against Jacksonville State, supplying 20 points (including four 3-pointers), 14 rebounds and four blocks. He struggled mightily with his shooting in Auburn’s second-round flameout against Miami, scoring 10 points while making just 3-of-18 field-goal attempts. He did fill up the stat sheet with 15 rebounds, four assists and three blocks.
  • Banchero – Also listed at 6’10’’, Banchero had 17 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocks against Cal State-Fullerton. He followed that up with 19 points, seven rebounds and four assists in Duke’s win over Michigan State. He hit the go-ahead jumper with 2:06 left.
  • Ivey – The 6’4’’ Ivey opened the tournament with a 22-point performance against Yale. He was only credited with one assist but added two steals. In the Boilermakers’ win over Texas, Ivey made a clutch 3-pointer in the late going and finished with 18 points, three rebounds and three assists.

That leads us to our question of the day: Among the four players considered the top prospects in this year’s draft, which one impressed you the most in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament? Were there any other first-round prospects that made a strong impression on you?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Zion Williamson

One of the biggest storylines this offseason will undoubtedly revolve around a player who isn’t even eligible for free agency.

While three of the top five picks in the 2019 draft – Ja Morant, RJ Barrett and Darius Garland – have delivered highly productive seasons for their respective teams, that draft’s No. 1 pick has been in virtual seclusion most of the season.

Pelicans big man Zion Williamson wasn’t supposed to be out of uniform all season but the rehab from his surgically-repaired right foot has dragged on. He suffered a couple of setbacks along the way and only recently returned to New Orleans. He spent a good chunk of the season rehabbing in Portland and hasn’t spoken to the media since September. It seems unlikely we’ll see him suit up before the end of the season.

He’s gone from freakish talent to one of the league’s biggest enigmas. It’s difficult to say whether Zion wants to continue to his career in New Orleans. It’s also hard to know whether the Pelicans want to retain him long-term, considering his injury history and aloof personality.

Williamson is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. The former Duke star would be eligible to sign for up to five years with a starting salary worth 25% of the 2023/24 salary cap (or 30%, if he makes an All-NBA team next season). We don’t know the exact amount yet, but if the ’23/24 cap comes in at $125MM, a five-year max for Zion would work out to at least $181MM.

If Williamson signs an extension this offseason, he’ll likely push for the max or something very close to it. If an extension agreement isn’t reached, Williamson would be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2023 (as long as New Orleans extends a qualifying offer).

New Orleans has two very good players – Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum – and adding a healthy, productive, motivated Williamson would form the core of a solid playoff team. That’s a huge if.

The draft lottery could also play a role in the Pelicans’ decision. They’ll get the Lakers pick if it lands in the top 10. They’ll also keep their own pick if it lands in the top four — otherwise, it will be conveyed to either Portland or Charlotte.

Let’s not forget how dominant Williamson can be when he’s healthy. He averaged 27.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.7 APG last season. If New Orleans front office has soured on him or he asks for a trade, plenty of teams would line up and offer a substantial haul for his services despite his nagging foot issues.

That leads us to our question of the day: What should the Pelicans do with Zion Williamson this offseason – pursue a max extension, trade him, or wait to see how next season plays out and allow him to become a restricted free agent in 2023?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: March Madness

Following the conclusion of this week’s First Four games, the 64-team field for the NCAA Tournament has officially been set. Games will tip off in a matter of hours, beginning with Michigan and Colorado State in the South region. The full bracket for this year’s tournament can be found right here.

We don’t cover college basketball much at Hoops Rumors — in fact, we typically only discuss it in relation to the NBA, which means focusing on top draft-eligible prospects.

As a result, we’ll be keeping a close eye on Gonzaga, the No. 1 seed in the West region, to see what top prospect Chet Holmgren can do in the tournament. We’ll also be watching Duke, the No. 2 seed in that same region, led by star freshman Paolo Banchero. If the Zags and Blue Devils aren’t upset in the earlier rounds, Holmgren and Banchero could square off in the Elite Eight.

While Holmgren and Banchero are two of the most intriguing prospects worth monitoring, there’s no shortage of potential lottery picks on top-seeded teams. Here are some of the others we’ll be watching when the tournament tips off:

While draft-eligible prospects are our focus, we want your predictions on winners, potential upsets, and possible disappointments.

Who are your Final Four picks? Who are your favorite upset candidates? Are you calling your shot on any Cinderella teams to make it to the Sweet Sixteen or beyond? Which team are you picking to win it all?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your March Madness thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Picking Playoff Opponents

Based on the current NBA standings, a pair of increasingly realistic scenarios are in play for the first round of this year’s postseason.

The Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed could be in line for a matchup against a Nets team that has Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons available, if New York City’s private sector vaccine mandate is dropped within the next month and Simmons is ready to play.

The Western Conference’s No. 1 seed could get a first-round matchup against a Lakers team that has a healthy Anthony Davis coming back from his foot injury. Or potentially a Clippers team with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell available.

We can debate just how dangerous the Nets, Lakers, and Clippers would be in the playoffs if they’re leaning heavily on stars coming off lengthy absences, but it’s probably safe to assume that neither the Heat nor the Suns (the league’s current top seeds) would welcome a first-round series against such a star-studded squad.

With that in mind, it makes sense that multiple NBA writers have recently broached the idea of allowing top-seeded playoff teams to choose their own first-round opponents. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer wrote about the subject last week, suggesting that it would add intrigue and would create an additional incentive for top teams to fight for the No. 1 seed in the conference. ESPN’s Zach Lowe also discussed the idea on Friday.

Both O’Connor and Lowe suggested a format in which the No. 1 seed could pick its opponent from the two play-in winners, leaving the No. 2 seed to face the other play-in winner.

However, as Lowe observes, that format could lead to “aggrieved” No. 2 seeds who would’ve perhaps preferred to finish at No. 3 and play the No. 6 team — if the season ended today, for instance, some top Eastern teams may rather face the No. 6 Cavaliers than the No. 7 Raptors or No. 8 Nets.

According to Lowe, a few teams have proposed the idea of a full playoff draft, with the top three seeds in each conference picking their first-round opponents from among the bottom four seeds. So, if there was a No. 8 seed that the top clubs really wanted to avoid, the “playoff draft” could result in that No. 8 team facing the No. 4 seed in the first round.

According to O’Connor, he has heard from people around the NBA who worry that such a format could lead to “an acrimonious relationship between players and teams over who picks who for a playoff series.” But O’Connor believes the extra drama generated should outweigh any hurt feelings.

Lowe, meanwhile, acknowledges that the “playoff draft” format could have some unintended consequences, including some scenarios where it’s better to finish fifth than fourth. But he points out that some playoff teams already spend the last few days of the regular season engaging in mini-tanks to try to get to a preferred seed.

We want to know what you think. Should top playoff seeds get to choose their first-round opponents? If so, would you only want the No. 1 seed to get that option, or would it make sense for the top three seeds to all get their pick?

Head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Community Shootaround: Most Improved Player

The NBA’s Most Improved Player award is often the one that generates the most crowded field of candidates. While there are only so many legitimate contenders in a given season for awards like Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year, there could be dozens of players who have decent cases for MIP consideration.

This season, however, oddsmakers believe there’s a clear-cut frontrunner for Most Improved Player honors — betting sites like Bovada.lv and BetOnline.ag have made Grizzlies guard Ja Morant the overwhelming favorite. If you want to place a wager at BetOnline on Morant to win the award, you have to risk $2,000 just to potentially win $100.

Morant has certainly taken a leap in his third NBA season. His scoring average has increased from 19.1 PPG to 27.5 PPG, and his shooting percentages have improved too, from .449/.303/.728 a year ago to .495/.346/.763 in 2021/22. The ascendant point guard has led the Grizzlies to a 45-22 record, the second-best mark in the NBA.

As ESPN’s Tim MacMahon and Tim Bontemps observed this week on The Hoop Collective podcast (video link), Morant has gone from missing the All-Star team in his first two seasons to becoming an All-NBA lock and a viable MVP candidate, which Bontemps calls “the hardest leap to make.” That’s why he looks like the safe bet to take home the Most Improved Player award this spring.

But is Morant a lock? Hornets forward Miles Bridges, Cavaliers guard Darius Garland, Spurs guard Dejounte Murray, Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons, and Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey are among the next-best candidates listed at Bovada and BetOnline.

Bridges’ shooting numbers have dipped a little this year with his increased usage rate, but he has increased his scoring average from 12.7 PPG to 19.8 PPG and is putting up career highs in almost every other key category.

Garland has put up 21.0 PPG and 8.2 APG with a .480 FG% (all career highs) while playing a crucial role in the Cavaliers’ unexpected turnaround, but he had already established a pretty impressive baseline (17.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, .451 FG%) in his sophomore season in 2020/21.

Murray has taken his game to another level in his sixth season, with 20.6 PPG, 9.4 APG, and 8.4 RPG (all career highs) to go along with an NBA-best 2.1 SPG. The Spurs’ 25-41 record may hurt his case, however.

None of these candidates has improved his scoring numbers more than Simons, who averaged 7.8 PPG last season and is up to 17.3 PPG in 2021/22, without a drop in efficiency. Simons has benefited from an increased role, but his per-minute numbers are also the best of his career.

Maxey, meanwhile, helped the Sixers remain in the playoff mix this season with Ben Simmons absent, with 17.4 PPG and 4.4 APG on .481/.419/.864 shooting after playing a limited role as a rookie. It’s worth noting though that some voters shy away from second-year players, since it’s considered a given that most will take a significant step forward.

What do you think? Is Morant a lock to win this year’s Most Improved Player award? Do you think Bridges, Garland, Murray, Simons, Maxey, or someone else has a stronger case?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: John Wall’s Future

When the Rockets and John Wall agreed prior to the 2021/22 season that the point guard would sit out while the team worked to find a new home, both sides likely hoped the situation would be resolved by this point.

However, the February 10 trade deadline came and went without the Rockets finding a deal they liked. And now that March 1 (the deadline for a player to be waived while maintaining his playoff eligibility) has passed, it appears virtually certain that Wall will remain on Houston’s inactive list for the remainder of this season.

While that outcome may not be what the Rockets or Wall wanted, it doesn’t come as a major surprise. The point guard’s $44.3MM cap hit this season and $47.3MM player option for next season made it virtually impossible to move him for anything of value. There were rumors that Houston would’ve taken on Russell Westbrook‘s nearly identical contract in exchange for Wall if the Lakers were willing to throw in a future first-round pick or a swap, but L.A. had little interest in that trade structure.

This winter was also probably still too early for the Rockets and Wall to seriously explore a buyout. In recent years, we’ve seen Kemba Walker and Blake Griffin reach buyout agreements with two years left on their respective contracts, but they gave up significant chunks of money in those deals ($20MM for Walker and $13MM+ for Griffin). Wall likely isn’t eager to surrender that much of his remaining salary, and the Rockets may continue to hold out hope they can find a suitable trade partner.

It seems safe to assume this situation won’t be resolved before this season ends, but the Rockets and Wall will probably do all they can to avoid extending the standoff into the 2022/23 regular season. That means this offseason will be crucial.

In theory, once Wall’s contract is an expiring deal, it’ll be a little easier to move. But there still won’t be many teams willing to take on $47MM in salary for a 32-year-old guard who seemed to have lost a step due to injuries even before he sat out for an entire season.

The Rockets’ best hope is that the Lakers become more open to the idea of a Westbrook/Wall swap, but if that doesn’t happen, it’s hard to find a good trade fit. A package made up of Evan Fournier, Nerlens Noel, Walker, and Taj Gibson would work financially, but even if the Knicks are motivated to get off a couple of those contracts, I’m unconvinced they’d be satisfied with a return consisting only of Wall. Frankly, that sort of package might make more sense for Westbrook.

Pairing Wall with a more desirable trade candidates such as Christian Wood or Eric Gordon could be an option the Rockets explore, but the more salary they add to Wall’s $47MM+ cap hit, the trickier it’ll be to find a match — it’s not easy for most teams to package $50MM+ in player salaries for matching purposes.

If Houston is unable to make a trade, the two sides could get more serious about buyout discussions. A handful of teams would reportedly be interested in Wall if he were to become a free agent, so the Rockets could allow his agent to talk to those clubs to get a sense of how much they’d be willing to offer him — Walker and the Thunder took this route last year, so Kemba knew he’d have an $18MM deal on the table from the Knicks after giving back $20MM to Oklahoma City.

The Heat and Clippers are among the clubs that have been identified in recent months as possible suitors for Wall if he reaches free agency. David Aldridge of The Athletic added another intriguing team to that list today, reporting that Wall would be open to the idea of returning to the Wizards and has recently discussed that possibility with people close to him.

As Aldridge acknowledges, Wizards owner Ted Leonsis and star guard Bradley Beal would both have to sign off on a Wall reunion. Leonsis was “legit angry” in 2020 after a video surfaced of Wall flashing gang signs at his birthday party and was “ready for a divorce,” according to Aldridge. Additionally, there was a sense in D.C. that the Wall/Beal partnership had run its course by the time Wall was traded to Houston.

Still, while Beal isn’t necessarily advocating for the Wizards to reacquire Wall, he wouldn’t dismiss the idea out of hand, Aldridge says. Washington will be in the market for a point guard this summer, and the possibility of bringing back Wall for part of the mid-level exception would presumably be far more appealing than having him on a maximum-salary contract.

We want to know what you think. What does Wall’s future hold? Will the Rockets be able to make a trade this offseason? If so, which trade partner steps up to acquire the five-time All-Star? If not, how much should he be willing to give up in a buyout, and where would he sign as a free agent? Do you expect resolution this summer, or will Wall still be on Houston’s roster in the fall?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Grizzlies’ Postseason Outlook

The Grizzlies have been one of the NBA’s most impressive overachievers in 2021/22. Oddsmakers projected Memphis to finish the season with a record around .500, but the team has already comfortably exceeded that projection, putting up a 44-22 record to date.

Even if they slump a little down the stretch, the Grizzlies look like a safe bet to exceed 50 wins and claim one of six guaranteed playoff spots in the West. If they continue playing like they have all season, they’d do much better than that — they’re on pace to win 55 games and claim the conference’s No. 2 seed.

The Grizzlies’ ascension has been led by Ja Morant, who has become a legitimate MVP contender, and Jaren Jackson Jr., a strong All-Defensive candidate who may receive Defensive Player of the Year consideration. Morant and Jackson have anchored a Memphis squad that ranks fifth in the NBA in offense and eighth in defense in 2021/22.

Sharpshooter Desmond Bane, who is averaging 17.8 PPG with a .412 3PT%, leads an impressive group of role players that also includes second-leading scorer Dillon Brooks (who has been limited to just 21 games due to a series of injuries), center Steven Adams, guards Tyus Jones and De’Anthony Melton, and forwards Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and Ziaire Williams.

Those players all have something in common — not a single one has celebrated his 30th birthday. At age 28, Adams is the oldest player on one of the NBA’s younger rosters.

As good as the Grizzlies have been this season, the conventional thinking is that young teams like this one generally have to pay their dues in the playoffs, gaining valuable postseason experience before they make a real breakthrough.

Two teams that Memphis has been compared to are good examples of this phenomenon — the up-and-coming Thunder team that featured Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka lost in the first round of the 2010 playoffs after winning 50 regular season games, then advanced to the Western Finals in 2011 and the NBA Finals in 2012. In 2013 and 2014, a Warriors team featuring Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green won just a single playoff series before they broke through for a championship in 2015.

On the other hand, it was just last spring that two rising young teams ended multiyear playoff droughts and made deep postseason runs — the Suns appeared in the NBA Finals in their first playoff appearance since 2010, while the Hawks made the Eastern Finals. It was the first time that players like Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton, Trae Young, and John Collins had appeared in the postseason, but they still managed to win multiple series.

With all that in mind, we want to know what you think of the Grizzlies’ playoff chances this spring. The projected matchups remain fluid, but if the season ended today, Memphis would face the winner of a Timberwolves/Clippers play-in game in round one, then the winner of a Warriors/Nuggets series in round two.

Is this Grizzlies team prepared to make a run to the Western Finals or the NBA Finals, or is a first- or second-round exit more likely? If you expect Memphis to bow out of the postseason early, is it more about the level of competition in the West, or do you think this squad is still at least a year or two (or a player or two) from becoming a true title contender?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the Grizzlies!

Community Shootaround: Rookie Of The Year

A majority of the teams in last year’s lottery have received an immediate boost from their draft picks. While it remains to be seen whether any of these players will be considered superstars during their careers, there was clearly plenty of talent at the top.

That has led to a spirited chase for the Rookie of the Year award. There are plenty of worthy candidates, so with fewer than 20 games left on regular-season schedule, let’s take a look at their credentials:

  • Cade Cunningham – After a slow start, Cunningham has established himself as a player the Pistons can build around. He leads all rookies at 16.3 PPG and ranks second in assists (5.1 per game) and fourth in rebounds (5.8). During crunch time, coach Dwane Casey has put the ball in Cunningham’s hands, trusting that the top pick in the draft will deliver.
  • Evan Mobley – The Cavaliers have been the league’s biggest surprise and a lot of that success can be attributed to the addition of Mobley. He’s fifth among rookies in scoring (14.6) and first in rebounding (8.2) and blocked shots (1.7). The No. 3 selection in the draft has lived up to his billing as the draft class’ top big man.
  • Scottie Barnes – Barnes leads all rookies in minutes per game (35.4), showing coach Nick Nurse’s trust in him. He’s fourth among rookies in scoring (14.9), third in rebounding (7.6) and tied for third in assists (3.3). The fourth pick in the draft should be a fixture with the Raptors for many seasons.
  • Josh Giddey – A bit of an unknown after playing last season in Australia, Giddey has displayed the ability to rack up triple doubles on any given night. The Thunder guard leads all rookies at 6.4 APG. He’s also seventh in scoring (12.5) and second in rebounding (7.8).
  • Franz Wagner – The eighth pick in the draft, Wagner ranks second among his peers in scoring (15.6 PPG) and 3-point shooting (37.2%). He’ll continue to be a matchup problem for Magic opponents.
  • Jalen Green – Like Cunningham, Green had some early shooting struggles but has come on strong. The Rockets guard and No. 2 overall selection has moved into third place (15.3 PPG) on the scoring list. He’s also advancing as a playmaker, contributing 15 assists in the last three games.
  • Herbert Jones – While his counting stats are not as impressive as more heralded prospects, Jones has become a defensive stalwart for the Pelicans. The second-round pick is averaging 30.1 MPG while often being assigned to the opponent’s main offensive threat.

That leads us to our question of the day: Who is your current selection for Rookie of the Year and what makes him stand out among all other first-year players?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Coach Of The Year Frontrunner

Suns head coach Monty Williams is currently the favorite to be named the NBA’s Coach of the Year in 2022, according to the oddsmakers at Bovada and BetOnline. With a 49-10 record, Phoenix has been 6.5 games better than any other team in the league this season, so Williams certainly has a strong case for the award.

Still, he’s hardly the only coach who is a viable candidate to be named Coach of the Year, especially if the Suns stumble at all during Chris Paul‘s absence in the next few weeks. Based on current betting odds, Bovada and BetOnline both view J.B. Bickerstaff, Taylor Jenkins, and Billy Donovan as the coaches besides Williams who are the strongest contenders for the award.

The Coach of the Year vote often comes down to which team exceeded its preseason expectations most significantly, especially if that club dealt with injuries or other adversity. With that in mind, Bickerstaff should be a popular pick. His Cavaliers are 35-24 despite losing Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio to season-ending knee injuries and having several other rotation players deal with various health ailments. Cleveland was widely viewed as a lottery team entering 2021/22.

Jenkins’ Grizzlies have also blown away the expectations fans and league observers had for them in the fall. Projected to be roughly a .500 team after sneaking into the playoffs a year ago, Memphis has already reached 41 victories in just 61 games and comfortably holds a top-three spot in the West. While Ja Morant has emerged as a bona fide star, the team’s supporting cast isn’t exactly loaded with household names, which may earn Jenkins some extra votes this spring.

Finally, Donovan’s Bulls were considered a fringe playoff team by oddsmakers last fall — their over/under figure of 42.5 wins was tied with Indiana and New York for seventh in the East. The club has been impacted by injuries throughout the season and was one of the teams hit hardest by COVID-19 in the winter, but still holds the conference’s top seed with a 39-21 record.

Erik Spoelstra of the Heat, Steve Kerr of the Warriors, Doc Rivers of the Sixers, and Chris Finch of the Timberwolves are among the others who could merit Coach of the Year consideration, especially with strong late-season finishes.

We want to know what you think. Is Williams the right pick for Coach of the Year at this point, or do you view Bickerstaff, Jenkins, Donovan, or someone else as a stronger candidate? If the season ended today, who do you think would – and should – win the award?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Lottery Teams

There will be plenty of attention over the next two months regarding the race for the top seeds in each conference. Several other teams will be aiming for one of the three bottom seeds.

While the lottery odds were changed a few years ago, it hasn’t discouraged tanking. The teams that finish with the three worst records have a 14 percent chance of getting the top pick.

That strategy paid off for the Pistons last season, as they rested several starters in the final weeks of the season and wound up with the second-worst mark. They won the lottery and drafted the consensus top pick, Cade Cunningham.

The Rockets, who lost their way to the worst record, still got the second pick and chose Jalen Green.

Lo and behold, those same two teams are well-positioned for a top-three pick again this year, though there’s more mystery which player will go No. 1. Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Gonzaga Chet Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero are currently the top candidates.

The Magic entered the All-Star break with the worst record, with the Pistons and Rockets just “behind” them in the race for the bottom. However, another team or two could crash the tanking party. The Thunder, Pacers, Kings, Pelicans and Spurs have also won fewer than 40 percent of their games, though New Orleans must convey its pick to the Trail Blazers if it’s between No. 5 and No. 14.

Speaking of the retooling Blazers, it’s conceivable they could go on a long losing streak, though with 25 wins in the bank it would difficult to drop near the bottom. The Pacers, who also went into rebuild mode, could be another prime candidate for a nosedive.

That leads us to our question of the day: Which three teams do you foresee finishing with the worst records this season and gaining the best lottery odds?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.