Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Early Check-In On MVP Race

With the lone exception of the Spurs, all of the NBA’s teams have played between 18 and 20 games so far this season (San Antonio is at 17), meaning we’re just about at the one-quarter mark of the season. With that in mind, we’re taking stock today of the top performances of 2021/22 to date.

The NBA’s top scorer so far is the same player who finished atop the leaderboard last season: Stephen Curry. Curry’s 28.2 PPG is nearly four full points below his 2020/21 average, but it looks like he’ll have a much stronger case for Most Valuable Player consideration this time around based on his team’s performance.

The Warriors, who finished just a few games above .500 and didn’t make the playoffs last season, have a league-best 16-2 record this season — and they’re still waiting to add Klay Thompson and James Wiseman to their rotation. Curry has led the charge, knocking down 41.8% of an eye-popping 12.9 three-point attempts per game, while chipping in 6.8 APG and 5.8 RPG. Golden State plays like an average team when Curry sits (-0.3 net rating) and an all-time juggernaut when he’s on the court (+20.4).

As the top scorer on the NBA’s best team, Curry would almost certainly win the MVP award if the season ended today, but if he or the Warriors slow down, there are plenty of other contenders to consider, starting with last year’s winner.

Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has matched last season’s scoring average (26.4 PPG) while establishing new career-highs in RPG (13.6), FG% (.593), and 3PT% (.410) in the early going. He also leads Denver in APG (6.4), and the gap between the team’s net rating when he’s on the court (+12.6) and off it (-14.6) is even bigger than Curry’s.

Unfortunately, that net rating with Jokic off the court may be the thing that ultimately sinks his chances. The injury-plagued Nuggets have been brutal whenever the reigning MVP sits and it’s led to a middle-of-the-pack 10-10 record so far. Like Curry a year ago, Jokic isn’t going to win another MVP award if his team finishes in play-in range.

How about another star on a No. 1 seed then? The 14-5 Nets, who have a two-game cushion in the Eastern Conference, have been led by a version of Kevin Durant playing at the height of his powers. He’s right behind Curry for the scoring lead (28.1 PPG) and has posted a career-best .556 FG% to go along with 7.6 RPG and 5.3 APG. Brooklyn has a +6.0 net rating when he plays, compared to +0.3 when he sits.

Durant’s case will be hurt a little by the fact that he has another former MVP – James Harden – helping him out, but if the Nets finish atop the East without Kyrie Irving playing at all, that’ll be a point in Durant’s favor.

Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Clippers forward Paul George, Heat swingman Jimmy ButlerMavericks guard Luka Doncic, Suns guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker, and Bulls wings Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are some of the other stars who would be in the conversation if the season ended today. Sixers center Joel Embiid and Lakers forwards LeBron James and Anthony Davis are among the others who could force their way into the conversation if they stay healthy and their teams move up the standings.

We want to know what you think. Is Curry the MVP so far? Who is the biggest threat to take the award from him if everyone stays healthy? Are there any dark-horse candidates you like? What would your five-man ballot look like at this point?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Coaches On The Hot Seat

Luke Walton became the first head coach to be let go during the 2021/22 NBA season earlier this week, but he may not be the last.

Although coaching changes happen most frequently in the spring once a team’s season has ended, some clubs decide not to wait that long, preferring to get a head-start on the transition midway through the year. Given the success Nate McMillan had in turning the Hawks’ season around when he took over for Lloyd Pierce in March, it’s possible we’ll see a couple more teams besides the Kings try to replicate that reversal of fortune with an in-season change.

With that in mind, we want to know which head coaches you believe will be most at risk during the 2021/22 season.

A report earlier today from Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report suggested that Stephen Silas of the Rockets may be the next coach to find himself on the hot seat. Houston has been the NBA’s worst team so far this season, with a 1-16 record, a 15-game losing streak, and a last-place ranking in several important offensive categories.

Still, the Rockets didn’t enter the season with postseason aspirations, and Silas has another year left on his contract after this season. Would a team on track to finish at the bottom of the NBA standings really be in a rush to make a midseason change and commit to paying two coaches for the next year-and-a-half, with a playoff berth seemingly multiple years away?

Sports betting site BetOnline.ag has Silas listed third in its odds for the next NBA head coach to be fired. Pistons head coach Dwane Casey, whose team is off to a 4-13 start, is atop that list. Like Silas, Casey wasn’t expected to lead his club to the playoffs this season, but there was an expectation that the Pistons would perhaps be a little more competitive than they have been.

On the other hand, with the exception of a blowout home loss to the Kings, the Pistons have been beaten by good teams so far, and all indications are that the organization thinks highly of Casey. In fact, he signed a contract extension just six months ago, locking him up through 2023/24. If things really go south in Detroit this season, maybe he finds himself on the hot seat, but I’m skeptical we’re at that point yet.

BetOnline.ag lists Frank Vogel of the Lakers between Casey and Silas as the second-most likely candidate to be the next coach fired.

The Lakers entered the season with championship aspirations but have underachieved so far, posting a 9-10 record. LeBron James‘ absences due to injuries and a one-game suspension have contributed to Los Angeles’ struggles (the team is 4-7 without him), but even with James in the lineup, the club has looked disjointed and inconsistent.

Like Casey, Vogel received a contract extension earlier this year. However, that extension didn’t really represent a massive vote of confidence. Entering the final season of the three-year contract he signed in 2019, Vogel had just one year tacked onto his deal, despite winning a title in 2020. Since his one-year extension only covers 2022/23, it wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Lakers from making a change if their struggles continue.

What do you think? Are Silas, Casey, or Vogel in any real trouble yet? Is there another head coach whose job security looks more tenuous to you? Do you think we’ll get any more in-season coaching changes in 2021/22?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves had the NBA’s third-worst record in 2019/20 and the sixth-worst record in ’20/21. However, there was an internal belief entering the season that the team was capable of taking a step forward with all its key players finally healthy and available.

Through 15 games, five of Minnesota’s seven most-used players – including Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards – have yet to miss a game, and the other two – D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley – have been sidelined for just two games apiece.

But the team’s good health luck hasn’t translated into a better start. Even after wins against Sacramento and San Antonio this week, the Wolves are just 6-9, despite playing 10 of their first 15 games at home. Their home record includes losses to New Orleans and Orlando.

It’s too early in the season to draw any sweeping conclusions about the state of the Timberwolves, but this is a big year for the team, which has playoff aspirations. If the core that Gersson Rosas spent two years building, including Towns, Edwards, Russell, and Malik Beasley, isn’t good enough to enter the playoff mix, new head of basketball operations Sachin Gupta will be under pressure to make additional roster moves.

Minnesota has been repeatedly cited as a potential suitor for Sixers star Ben Simmons, though it’s unclear if the Wolves have the assets necessary to bring Philadelphia to the table without including Towns or Edwards in their offer.

In his latest The Scoop w/Doogie podcast, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North mentioned a pair of shot-blocking big men that could be fits for the Wolves: Myles Turner and Chris Boucher.

There’s no indication that Turner is available at this point, but Wolfson says there are those in the Wolves’ front office who are fans of the Pacers center (hat tip to HoopsHype). Boucher, who is on an expiring deal with the Raptors, may be a more realistic target at this point, though he wouldn’t be the same sort of difference-maker as Turner.

With the Wolves looking to fight their way back to .500, we want to get your thoughts on the team. Do you believe in a core led by Towns and Edwards? Are Russell or Beasley long-term keepers? Does the roster need another impact player to become a legit playoff team, or is the current group capable of making it? If a trade is necessary, which players are the most desirable – and the most realistic – targets?

Head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: East Vs. West

During the 21st century, Eastern Conference teams have had a winning record in games against Western Conference teams just once in 22 seasons. That happened in the 2008/09 campaign, when the East put up a 231-219 record (.513) vs. the West.

In every other season since 1999/2000, Western teams have had a winning record against Eastern opponents, often by a wide margin. The East’s second-best result came in 2015/16, when it posted a 218-232 (.484) mark vs. the West.

These numbers are a simple way of illustrating what most NBA fans view as common knowledge: For at least the last two decades, the West has been the stronger and deeper of the two conferences.

In the early going of the 2021/22 season, however, there’s reason to believe that the tide might be shifting. Even after Western teams won all three games against Eastern opponents on Monday night, the East has a 22-19 record in inter-conference games so far this season.

It’s obviously way too early in the year to draw any conclusions, but it’s not too early to start making some predictions based on what we’ve seen so far.

Among the East’s current top eight teams, the Sixers, Heat, Knicks, and Nets were expected to be here, but the Bulls, Wizards, Cavaliers, and Raptors have exceeded expectations so far. Some of those clubs might slow down, but some of their gains could be for real, and they all at least look capable of remaining in the play-in mix.

Further down the standings, the Hornets (5-6) are about where we expected, while the Bucks (4-6), Celtics (4-6), Hawks (4-7), and Pacers (4-7) are actually underachieving so far — we can probably expect more from most or all of them.

The Magic and Pistons, at the bottom of the conference standings, will likely remain there and lose a lot of games. But even so, that leaves 13 teams in the East with realistic playoff or play-in aspirations.

The West looks pretty deep too, but it may not have as many obvious breakout teams — its top nine clubs so far are identical to last year’s, albeit in a different order. There also aren’t as many underachievers in the West that we can count on seeing improvements from. The Lakers have been a little disappointing, but they’re still above .500 at 6-5.

With all that in mind, we want to know what you think. Has the Eastern Conference finally caught up to the Western Conference this season, or is the West still the more dominant conference overall? Do you expect the East to post at least a .500 record against the West this season for just the second time this century?

Head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Community Shootaround: Strong Starts

The BullsKnicks, Warriors, Heat and Wizards are tied for the league’s best record (5-1) entering the final night of October, having opened the season on a strong note.

Chicago is sporting a new core that includes Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic in the starting lineup — its only loss came against the Knicks on Thursday in a one-point game.

New York is looking to build on its success from last season after adding Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to a battle-tested core. Golden State has seen strong performances from Stephen Curry (28.7 points per game), plus two backcourt pieces in Damion Lee and Jordan Poole (combined 28.2 points per game).

The two Southeast Division teams on the list, Miami and Washington, are enjoying win streaks of four and three games, respectively. The clubs have played well despite dealing with various absences, including Bam Adebayo (knee) and Daniel Gafford (quad) on Friday.

The million-dollar question is simple: which of these teams are most likely to sustain a high level of success? Chicago and Washington have relatively new cores, while Miami and Golden State have veterans and coaches with valuable championship experience. New York remains a hungry wild card.

From a long-term perspective, the Heat and Warriors are still waiting for Victor Oladipo and Klay Thompson to return from their injuries. Chicago has also lost second-year forward Patrick Williams, who’s expected to miss at least the rest of the regular season with a dislocated wrist.

We want to know what you think. Which of these teams are more likely to succeed than others? Is it still too early in the season to draw any serious conclusions? Take to the comments section below!

Community Shootaround: Officiating Adjustments

A notable new change to officiating this season has been the emphasis on “non-basketball moves” from offensive players designed to draw contact from defenders. In the past, these plays were frequently called defensive fouls. This season, they’re supposed to be no-calls; in some instances, they’ve been called offensive fouls.

Hawks star Trae Young is on board with some of the new changes, but feels like the referees have swung too far in the opposite direction and haven’t been calling some legitimate fouls, per ESPN News Services.

There’s a lot of missed calls,” Young said. “It’s basketball. It’s just, it feels that they’re learning, and they’re just — I don’t know. It’s frustrating.

Veering back and jumping into guys — that’s different,” Young said. “There are certain things that, I agree with the rule changes, but then there’s things that are still fouls, and guys are going to get hurt. Especially a smaller guy like me who’s going up against bigger and stronger defenders, they’re using their body and they’re using their legs and their hands to stop me.

Young made the comments following Atlanta’s 122-111 loss to the Wizards. He was subsequently fined $15K for making contact with a referee during the game.

Through five games this season, Young is averaging 4.4 free throw attempts per game. Last season, he averaged 8.7.

Another player known for drawing fouls is Nets star James Harden. Harden averaged 7.3 free throw attempts per game last season (8.7 career). Through five games this season, he’s averaging 3.0, a career low.

However, some players love the changes. Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma recently tweeted his support.

The new rules changes to the sport are the best thing the league has done in recent history. Watching the game Is muuuuuch different,” Kuzma wrote.

Here’s some early foul call data that compares the start of this season to the start of last season, courtesy of Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link).

This season, through 10 days: 13 teams are averaging less than 20 free throw attempts per game, and none are averaging more than 25 attempts per game.

Last season, through 10 days: Six teams averaged less than 20 free throw attempts per game, and eight teams averaged more than 25 attempts per game.

We want to know what you think. Have the changes resulted in a better viewing experience? Will the referees continue swallowing the whistle on “non-basketball moves”? Will free throw attempts stay down? Or is it too early to draw conclusions from the small sample size?

Head to the comment section to let us know your thoughts.

Community Shootaround: Slow Starters

Entering the 2021/22 season, the Lakers and Nets were widely viewed as the frontrunners to reach the NBA Finals. When ESPN polled 16 of its NBA experts on predictions for the coming season, 10 picked the Lakers to win the West and 10 chose the Nets to win the East.

So far though, Los Angeles and Brooklyn have been inconsistent and underwhelming, posting matching 2-3 records. The Lakers lost two home games to open the season, then blew a 26-point lead in Oklahoma City on Wednesday against the winless Thunder. The Nets, meanwhile, have lost three games by double-digits — one in Milwaukee and two at home, vs. the Hornets and Heat.

It’s far, far too early for either team to panic. LeBron James has missed two games for the Lakers and James Harden is still working his way back from a hamstring injury for the Nets. And with the exception of the Lakers’ disaster in OKC, both teams’ losses so far have come against pretty tough opponents.

Still, the early-season results can’t be written off entirely. James has been increasingly affected by injuries in recent years — if that trend continues this season, it’ll have a significant impact on a top-heavy Lakers team. The club acquired Russell Westbrook over the summer in part to have another star available when James or Anthony Davis miss time, but Westbrook has gotten off to a shaky start in L.A., averaging just 17.8 PPG (his lowest mark since 2009/10) and turning the ball over six times per game. His fit on this Lakers roster was an open question entering the season, and it doesn’t seem as if the team has fully figured it out.

As for the Nets, the impact of Kyrie Irving‘s absence shouldn’t be understated. Brooklyn is supposed to have one of the best offenses in league history, but through five games, the club’s offensive rating is an ugly 100.6 — only Detroit and New Orleans have been worse. Harden expects to be back to his old self soon, but he’s certainly not benefiting from the NBA’s reduction on foul calls when offensive players go out of their way to initiate contact.

Again, it’s too early for a sub-.500 record to be a major concern for either of these teams, whose rosters are heavy on star power and veteran experience. But the expectations in Los Angeles and Brooklyn are high. Anything less than an NBA Finals appearance will be a letdown, so there’s not much room for error.

Many of the NBA’s other sub-.500 teams aren’t surprising, but the Celtics (2-3), Pacers (1-4), Suns (1-3), and Clippers (1-3) certainly would’ve hoped for better starts.

We want to know what you think. Is it still too early to draw any conclusions about any of this season’s slow starters? Or has some of what you’ve seen from the Lakers, the Nets, or other sub-.500 clubs made you skeptical of their ability to meet preseason expectations?

Community Shootaround: NBA’s Undefeated Teams

The NBA’s 2021/22 regular season is only eight days old and no team has played more than four games, but 27 of the league’s 30 teams have already lost at least once. The three undefeated teams left standing are the Bulls (4-0), Warriors (4-0), and Jazz (3-0).

Of those three clubs that have opened the season on winning streaks, Utah is perhaps the least surprising. The Jazz had the NBA’s best record last season and were expected to be in the mix for that honor again in 2021/22 — no team in the Western Conference was projected by oddsmakers to win more regular season games than Quin Snyder‘s club.

Still, the Jazz haven’t faced faced an especially tough test through the first week of the season. Their first two wins came over lottery teams (the Thunder and Kings), and their third opponent (the Nuggets) was missing its two maximum-salary players, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, due to injuries when Utah pulled away in the second half on Tuesday.

The new-look Bulls, led by All-Star Zach LaVine and newcomer DeMar DeRozan, have looked great so far, especially on defense, where they rank fourth in the NBA. But they also haven’t been tested by a top-tier opponent — their first four wins came against Detroit, New Orleans, and Toronto, all of whom are missing key players.

Chicago’s road will get a whole lot tougher starting on Wednesday. Twelve of the Bulls’ next 13 contests will be against playoff teams from last season, and the 13th game will be vs. Golden State, the league’s other unbeaten club.

The Warriors’ hot start may be the most impressive of the bunch — their first two wins were against the Lakers and Clippers, and three of the four have been in road games. I was a little concerned entering the season about Golden State’s depth with Klay Thompson, James Wiseman, and Jonathan Kuminga still on the mend, but a second unit led by Damion Lee, Andre Iguodala, and Nemanja Bjelica has been solid so far, and Stephen Curry (29.0 PPG) has been his usual dominant self.

The Dubs have a chance to keep their hot start going, as they begin an eight-game home stand on Thursday. That stretch will include six games against 2020/21 lottery teams, though some of those clubs – including Chicago and Charlotte – have looked more dangerous in ’21/22.

We want to know what you think. Being undefeated at this point in the season doesn’t mean much – the Magic started last season 4-0, for instance – but do you feel like these teams are for real? Are the Warriors and Bulls playoff-bound? Will the Jazz be the West’s No. 1 seed again? Or do you expect one or two of these clubs to cool off and come back down to earth in the coming days or weeks?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team

In honor of the league’s 75th anniversary season, the NBA has revealed its selections for the 75 best players in league history — actually, as a result of a tie, 76 names show up on the NBA’s list.

The list features all 50 players who were named to the NBA’s 50th anniversary team in 1996, as well as 11 players who are currently active: LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Damian Lillard.

The full list can be found here.

The fact that the NBA didn’t rank the members of the 75th anniversary team from No. 1 to No. 76 will limit the debate over the list to some extent, but there will still be push-back on some of the players selected and plenty of advocating on behalf of those who missed the cut.

Kurt Helin of NBC Sports, Bryan Kalbrosky of HoopsHype, and Andy Bailey of Bleacher Report were a few of the many writers who identified players they felt were snubbed. Tracy McGrady, Dwight Howard, and Vince Carter showed up on all three of their lists, while Dikembe Mutombo, Bernard King, Grant Hill, and Pau Gasol were also named multiple times.

Long-retired players like Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, and Walt Bellamy were cited by at least one writer, as were more recent stars like Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Chris Bosh, and Nikola Jokic (who is one of just two MVP winners not on the list, along with Derrick Rose). And, as Scott Polacek of Bleacher Report writes, Klay Thompson was one of the players who publicly griped about his exclusion, having felt he deserved a spot.

Of course, coming up with a list of snubs is easier than deciding which of the 76 players who made the cut didn’t deserve it. Asked which player they were most surprised to see among the 76 selections, a couple ESPN panelists suggested that they might need to see more from Lillard and Davis before giving them a spot on this list. ESPN’s Marc Spears also wondered if a player with more longevity than Bill Walton might be more deserving of Walton’s spot.

We want to know what you think. Are you generally in agreement with the NBA’s 76 choices? Were there any questionable selections or glaring omissions?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Outlook

The Nets and Bucks will enter the 2021/22 season as the clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference next spring. The betting odds at sites like BetOnline reflect Brooklyn’s and Milwaukee’s standing atop the conference, as does the analysis of experts like ESPN’s Zach Lowe, who places the two teams first and second overall in his rankings of all 30 teams for the ’21/22 season.

As Lowe acknowledges, Kyrie Irving‘s availability – or lack thereof – is a major wild card that could affect the Nets this season, but every non-Irving critique of the club essentially “amounts to nit-picking.” The Bucks, meanwhile, have been the NBA’s best regular season team across the last three seasons and reached new heights in the 2021 postseason. With a healthy roster heading into this season, they look like a safe bet to be one of the East’s top seeds.

After those top two teams, Lowe’s next tier of Eastern clubs includes four talented clubs with some question marks: the Sixers, Heat, Celtics, and Hawks.

The Ben Simmons standoff hangs over Philadelphia’s season — if Simmons’ holdout extends into the regular season and the 76ers still haven’t found a trade they like, they’ll essentially be down an All-Star for the foreseeable future, which will limit their ceiling. The Hawks, the team that eliminated the Sixers from the playoffs in 2021, are deep and should be able to count on continued growth from their young players, but a team’s improvements aren’t always linear. As for the Celtics and Heat, they’ll be looking to bounce back after relatively disappointing 2020/21 seasons that ended with quick postseason exits.

While those four teams may be the favorites on paper to fill out the top six in the East, Lowe expects at least one of them to slip into play-in territory. He identifies the Knicks, Bulls, and Hornets as the next-best bets to crack the East’s top six.

The Knicks, of course, were the No. 4 seed in the East last season and will bring back a very similar group, along with new additions like Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. They outperformed expectations in 2020/21 and may experience some regression, but they’re a deep, well-coached team looking to prove that last season’s breakthrough was no aberration.

The Bulls are one of the East’s most fascinating teams — they could have one of the NBA’s best offenses, but there are concerns about their defense and depth, so a wide range of outcomes are possible. As for the Hornets, Lowe acknowledges there are some red flags, but views young cornerstones LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and P.J. Washington as good candidates to take another step forward in 2021/22.

The Pacers, Wizards, and Raptors are part of the next tier for Lowe, who consider all three clubs legit contenders to make the play-in tournament. Early-season injuries may hold back Indiana (T.J. Warren, Caris LeVert) and Toronto (Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher), but both clubs were perennial playoff teams up until 2021 and still have plenty of talent on their rosters. Washington lost some star-power by trading away Russell Westbrook, but the team’s depth is stronger than it has been in years.

Lowe places the Cavaliers in a group of their own, noting that executives around the league have wildly varying opinions on Cleveland’s roster. Some people are high on the Cavs’ collection of young talent, while others think they could be the very worst team in the NBA. Although they’re not a clear play-in contender, they could be in that mix if things break right.

The Pistons and Magic, meanwhile, project to be the East’s bottom two teams, despite the presence of rookie guards Cade Cunningham and Jalen Suggs.

After we broke down the Western Conference on Wednesday, I’m curious to get your thoughts today on the Eastern Conference. Do you view the Nets and Bucks as the East’s clear top two finishers? Which clubs will clinch top-six playoff seeds, and which four will end up in the play-in tournament? Of the 12 teams with realistic playoff expectations, which two (or more) will finish outside of play-in range?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the Western Conference!