Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Conference Semifinal Check-In

May 14th, 2024 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Of the NBA’s four conference semifinals currently in progress, one looks all but over. The Celtics, who entered the series as heavy favorites, hold a 3-1 lead over the Cavaliers, will host Game 5 (and a potential Game 7) in Boston, and are facing a banged-up Cleveland team that might not have its leading scorer (Donovan Mitchell) or defensive anchor (Jarrett Allen) back in action for a do-or-die game on Wednesday.

The other three series, however, remain very much up in the air, with each of them tied at two games apiece.

In the East, the Pacers have overtaken the Knicks as the betting favorites in their series — BetOnline.ag now lists Indiana at -145 to advance to the conference finals, with New York at +125. A fully healthy Knicks team would presumably still be favored to win the series, but this version of the club is anything but.

Already missing Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic when the second round began, New York has since lost Mitchell Robinson to a season-ending ankle injury and OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the last two games and will keep him on the shelf for Game 5. Jalen Brunson also isn’t playing at 100% and hasn’t looked quite the same since briefly exiting Game 2 due to a foot issue. He made just 37.2% of his field goal attempts and 18.2% of his three-pointers in the Knicks’ two losses in Indiana.

New York still holds the home court advantage in the series and has shown impressive resiliency over the course of an injury-plagued season. But will the Knicks finally run out of gas and succumb to a healthier and deeper Pacers team?

Over in the West, after impressive Game 4 victories, the Nuggets (-170) are once again considered the favorites to knock out the Timberwolves (+150) and the Thunder (-157) are back in the driver’s seat against the Mavericks (+137).

Denver and Minnesota combined to go 63-19 at home during the regular season, but the two Northwest rivals are 0-4 on their own courts in this series. Given the Nuggets’ championship pedigree and the advantage that the Denver elevation typically gives the home team, it’s no surprise that they’re now the popular pick to win the series, but it would be premature to rule out the Timberwolves after the way they played in those first two games of the series. The Wolves will need more from Karl-Anthony Towns, who scored just 27 points on 9-of-25 shooting (36.0%) in the team’s two home games.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, will go as far as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving can take them, and neither guard came up big in Game 4 — the two stars combined to score just 27 points on 10-of-31 shooting (32.3%). Doncic has been hampered by knee and ankle injuries and likely won’t be 100% healthy until he gets some time this offseason to recover, but if he can give the Mavs performances like he did in Games 3 (29 points) and 4 (22 points, 15 rebounds), they’ll take it.

The Thunder, meanwhile, have had to work around the fact that starting guard Josh Giddey is something of a liability in this matchup — Giddey hasn’t played more than 17 minutes in any of the series’ four games. Oklahoma City has the depth to work around the issue, but it puts more pressure on the team’s other top play-makers and scorers, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to carry the offensive load. Gilgeous-Alexander has delivered so far, scoring at least 29 points in all four games vs. Dallas and handing out 7.0 assists per contest.

We want to know what you think. It seems pretty safe to assume the Celtics will be in the conference finals, but which three teams will join them there?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and make your predictions!

Community Shootaround: What Should Spurs Do With Two Lottery Picks?

May 12th, 2024 at 4:32pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

A year removed from selecting Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, the Spurs will now boast two draft selections in the top eight of the impending 2024 draft.

San Antonio’s own first-round pick moved up a spot to No. 4, while the team also secured the top-six protected 2024 first-rounder acquired from the Raptors as part of the trade for center Jakob Poeltl during the 2022/23 season, when that pick tumbled to No. 8 overall.

The Spurs have a real opportunity for some cost-effective team-building here. But, in a draft that isn’t particularly well regarded, will San Antonio team president R.C. Buford really want to retain both his team’s picks? Alternately, perhaps he sees something in a prospect others don’t, and could package the two selections together to move up even further in the draft.

Two French frontcourt prospects, Perth Wildcats center Alexandre Sarr and JL Bourg forward Zaccharie Risacher, are among the top players in this year’s class, and could fit well alongside their countryman, San Antonio’s freshly minted Rookie of the Year Wembanyama.

Crvena Zvezda guard Nikola Topic, G League Ignite swingman Ron Holland, Connecticut big man Donovan Clingan and Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham are a few more of this year’s top prospects.

If they don’t love the players at the top of this year’s draft class, the Spurs could look to add veteran talent alongside Wembanyama, who also finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, in more of a win-now approach.

San Antonio struggled for much of the season to pair him with a proper point guard, with head coach Gregg Popovich curiously opting to start power forward Jeremy Sochan at the point for a while. The team could try to package the contract of a young talent like Devin Vassell or Keldon Johnson, or perhaps oft-injured big man Zach Collins, plus one or both of this year’s picks and some other future draft equity, to acquire a star-level lead play-maker in a trade.

We want to know what you think. Should San Antonio stand pat, pivot to a win-now approach, or wind up somewhere in between?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Which Draft Prospect Should Go No. 1 Overall?

May 12th, 2024 at 12:21pm CST by Rory Maher

As we relayed in our primer, the 2024 NBA draft lottery takes place this afternoon at 2:00pm Central time. While this year’s lottery isn’t nearly as highly anticipated as last year’s, each team would still love the opportunity to land the No. 1 overall pick.

Unlike the 2023 lottery, in which every team was hoping to select French phenom Victor Wembanyama, who went on to win Rookie of the Year with the Spurs, the 2024 draft has no real consensus at the top.

For example, French wing Zaccharie Risacher is ranked No. 1 overall on ESPN’s top-100 list, but he’s No. 8 on Sam Vecenie of The Athletic’s big board, No. 9 on Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report’s board, and all the way down at No. 12 on Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer’s board.

Another French player, big man Alexandre Sarr, might be the closest thing to a lock to be selected in the top three. He’s ranked No. 2 by ESPN, No. 1 by Vecenie, No. 4 by Wasserman and No. 1 by O’Connor.

Serbian guard Nikola Topic is another prospect who appears in the top five of each list. He’s No. 5 at ESPN, No. 2 at The Athletic, No. 3 at Bleacher Report and No. 2 at The Ringer.

There’s significant variance on several other prospects. G League Ignite wing Ron Holland is ranked No. 10 by ESPN, No. 7 by Vecenie, and No. 6 by O’Connor, but he’s the top overall prospect on Wasserman’s board. UConn’s Stephon Castle is ranked No. 3 on Vecenie and O’Connor’s boards, but No. 9 on Wasserman’s and No. 10 on ESPN’s.

We want to know what you think. Which prospect do you think should be selected No. 1 overall in next month’s draft? Is it one of the players mentioned here, or someone else? Head to the comments to share your thoughts.

Community Shootaround: Celtics/Cavaliers Series

May 7th, 2024 at 2:10pm CST by Luke Adams

No second-round series in the this year’s NBA playoffs is viewed as more one-sided than Celtics vs. Cavaliers. Ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday, betting site BetOnline.ag has made Boston a -2000 favorite to advance, listing Cleveland at +1000 to pull off the upset.

Based on what we’ve seen this season from Boston, those odds don’t come as a major surprise. At 64-18, the Celtics won seven more games than any other team in the NBA and 14 more than any Eastern Conference rival. They put up the third-best net rating in NBA history (+11.7), finishing with the league’s top offensive rating (122.2) and second-best defensive rating (110.6).

In Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics have a starting lineup full of two-way impact players, with no weak links on either end of the floor. And while they’re not exactly loaded with depth, the first few players off their bench – Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser – all made positive contributions this season.

The Celtics experienced a minor hiccup in round one, losing Game 2 at home to a Miami team that was missing star forward Jimmy Butler, but they bounced back admirably with dominant victories in Games 3, 4, and 5, holding the Heat to between 84 and 88 points in each of those contests to close out the series in convincing fashion.

The Cavaliers, on the other hand, had a middle-of-the-pack net rating this season (their +2.5 mark ranked 12th in the league), and their 48-34 record was buoyed by 17-1 run in January and February. They went 13-18 to close the regular season and then needed seven games to get past an Orlando team that outscored them overall.

Donovan Mitchell was excellent in that first-round series, averaging 28.7 points per game, but he’s still dealing with a leg injury and the Cavs struggled to get much secondary offense going against the Magic, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert, and Max Strus all scoring well below their regular season averages.

It doesn’t help matters that the team has been missing starting center Jarrett Allen, who has been out for the last three games due to a rib contusion, and Dean Wade, a rotation forward who likely would have been playing regular minutes in the playoffs.

On paper, it looks like a one-sided matchup, but there are a few arguments against penciling in the Celtics for a sweep. For one, they’re missing Porzingis, who may remain on the shelf for the entire second round while he recovers from a calf strain. They can slot Horford into Porzingis’ starting spot, but he’s not as dynamic an offensive player, and it will mean relying more on reserves who barely played in the first round, such as Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman.

The Cavaliers also played the Celtics competitively during the regular season, with all three games between the two teams decided by single-digits. Cleveland lost a pair of contests in Boston, but beat the C’s at home in March. That victory should give the Cavs a little confidence entering Game 1, as should the fact that they were able to get a monkey off their back by winning a playoff series this spring after a disappointing showing in 2023 — that could remove some pressure entering round two.

The Celtics have their own playoff demons to reckon with. They lost the Eastern Conference finals to the Heat last spring as heavy favorites and are in championship-or-bust mode this year after falling short with rosters led by Tatum and Brown for the past several seasons. A second-round loss would be a disaster for the franchise, so if they hit another snag like they did in Game 2 vs. Miami last round, they’ll have to respond like they did against the Heat and not let the Cavs start to get comfortable.

We want to know what you think. Will the Celtics have any problems against the Cavs or do you expect Boston to advance without too much trouble? Is there any chance of a Cleveland upset? Are the Celtics bound for the NBA Finals?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Thunder/Mavericks Series

May 6th, 2024 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As we noted when we discussed the Nuggets/Timberwolves showdown last week, that second-round battle between two Northwest rivals has the potential to be one of the very best series we get during these NBA playoffs. But the other Western Conference semifinal, which begins on Tuesday, shouldn’t be overlooked — Thunder vs. Mavericks is a marquee matchup in its own right.

The Mavericks finished the regular season as the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, but they weren’t a typical five seed. Dallas came into its own during the second half of the season, particularly after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline to solidify the rotation.

From March 7 through April 10, when they locked up the No. 5 spot, no team had a better record (16-2) or a better defensive rating (106.0) than the Mavericks, and only Boston’s +13.0 net rating was better than Dallas’ +12.2 mark during that window. The new-look Mavs appeared to be a team peaking at the right time, and their first-round performance against the Clippers did little to dispel that notion.

With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the charge on offense and Washington, Gafford, Derrick Jones, and Dereck Lively among those playing key complementary roles, the Mavericks have arguably their most well-rounded roster during the Doncic era and appear capable of legitimate contention.

But the Mavs will miss frontcourt stalwart Maxi Kleber, who will be unavailable for the Western semifinals due to a shoulder injury. And even with a healthy Kleber, it’s unlikely Dallas would be favored to beat a Thunder team that earned the No. 1 seed in the West this season and then made a four-game sweep of the Pelicans look easy in round one.

The Thunder are the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, per ESPN (Twitter link) — everyone who plays regular rotation minutes for Oklahoma City is 25 years old or younger. It often takes some time for teams that young to learn how to win in the playoffs, but the Thunder should head into round two with plenty of confidence after dismantling New Orleans.

Oklahoma City has its own MVP finalist – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – to counter Doncic’s impact, and while none of the other players on the roster can match Irving’s impressive career résumé, forward Jalen Williams (19.1 PPG on .540/.327/.814 shooting during the regular season) and center Chet Holmgren (16.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG) are rising stars, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace are three-and-D standouts, Josh Giddey is a talented play-maker whose outside shot has become more reliable, and Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Jaylin Williams provide legitimate depth.

The Mavericks enjoyed an impressive second-half run, but the Thunder were an elite team all season long, ranking second only to the Celtics in overall net rating (+7.3). Oklahoma City was also the only club besides Boston to rank in the NBA’s top five in both offensive rating (third) and defensive rating (fourth). And the Thunder will hold home-court advantage over the Mavs, which isn’t insignificant, given that OKC’s 33-8 home record during the season tied for the best mark in the West.

The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag view this series as the closest call of the four second-round matchups entering Game 1. Currently, the Thunder are slight favorites at -130, but the Mavs (+110) are almost even money to win the series.

We want to know what you think. Are you counting on the Thunder to continue their meteoric rise by booking a spot in the Western Conference finals, or is Dallas positioned to pull off the upset here? Do you expect the team that wins this series to make the NBA Finals or fall to the winner of Denver/Minnesota?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Knicks/Pacers Series

May 3rd, 2024 at 11:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks and Pacers closed out their respective first-round series on Thursday, securing their spots in the Eastern Conference semifinals and lining up a playoff matchup straight out of the 1990s.

As Wheat Hotchkiss of Pacers.com details, back in the days of Patrick Ewing and Reggie Miller, a New York/Indiana series was something of an annual tradition in the Eastern Conference, with the two teams meeting in six out of eight postseasons from 1993-2000. Since then, the clubs have squared off just once in the playoffs – in the 2013 Eastern Conference semifinals – but the current iterations of the Knicks and Pacers are well positioned to rekindle that old rivalry.

Both teams are led by point guards likely to earn their first All-NBA nods this spring — Jalen Brunson for the Knicks and Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers. While Haliburton is more of a distributor, having led the NBA with 10.9 assists per game during the regular season, Brunson has had to take on a far greater scoring load since Julius Randle suffered a shoulder injury in January. He averaged 31.5 points per game in 33 regular season contests after Randle went down and leads all playoff scorers with 35.5 PPG.

The Pacers, who finished the regular season with the NBA’s second-best offensive rating (120.5) have gotten much of their scoring this postseason from their frontcourt, with Pascal Siakam (22.3 PPG) and Myles Turner (19.2 PPG) leading the way while Obi Toppin (12.3 PPG) contributes off the bench. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and T.J. McConnell, meanwhile, have given the team important minutes in the backcourt and on the wing alongside Haliburton.

With Randle unavailable, the Knicks have leaned heavily on wings Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Donte DiVincenzo for three-and-D production to complement Brunson, with Miles McBride, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Mitchell Robinson also playing key roles.

Indiana won the season series between the two teams by a 2-1 margin, but the Knicks have home-court advantage and will enter round two as heavy favorites (-265 on BetOnline.ag). As good as the Pacers were offensively during the season, New York was nearly as effective – their 117.3 offensive rating ranked seventh in the league – and the Knicks were the far stouter team on the other end of the court, ranking ninth with a 112.4 defensive rating. Indiana placed 24th at 117.6.

Several Pacers have appeared in the playoffs before – including Siakam, who played a major role for the Raptors’ championship team in 2019 – but it’s Haliburton’s first postseason and this Knicks team played into the second round a year ago, so New York probably holds the slight playoff experience edge.

The Knicks may also be more comfortable playing at a playoff pace — their regular season mark of 95.96 possessions per 48 minutes was the slowest in the NBA, and they’ve slowed things down even further during the postseason (91.09). The Pacers, conversely, ranked second in the league with a 102.16 regular season pace and have had to adjust to a more deliberate style in the postseason — their first-round mark was just 92.89.

We want to know what you think. Are you expecting the Knicks to advance to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000, or will the Pacers continue their unlikely run with another series victory? Assuming the Celtics are the other team in the Eastern finals, will the winner of this series have a legitimate shot to topple Boston and make the NBA Finals?

Head to the comment section to share your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Nuggets/Timberwolves Series

May 1st, 2024 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Only one second-round matchup has been set so far in these NBA playoffs, but it looks like it has the potential to be one of the very best postseason series of 2024. The defending-champion Nuggets will face the Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals beginning on Saturday.

Denver had a target on its back entering this season after winning a title in 2023, but the team responded admirably, tying for the West’s best record (57-25) and then quickly dispatching LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers in round one.

The Nuggets are led by the NBA’s probable 2024 MVP (Nikola Jokic), along with one of the league’s best clutch playoff performers (Jamal Murray). They also have a series of role players, led by Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Michael Porter Jr., who complement their stars perfectly. They’re widely considered the favorites to come out of the West, with many NBA fans and experts viewing them as a good bet to repeat as champions.

But the Timberwolves showed in their first-round sweep of Phoenix that they’re a legitimate threat to make a deep playoff run of their own this spring.

Minnesota, which had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive rating during the regular season, wasn’t quite as dominant on that end of the floor against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and the Suns, but they made up for it by raising their offensive game to new heights — the Wolves’ 123.2 offensive rating in round one easily ranks first among the 16 playoff teams.

Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns own the most award hardware of any Minnesota players, but it’s rising star Anthony Edwards who is raising the team’s ceiling and gives the Wolves a chance to be more competitive than they were in the first round against Denver a year ago.

Just 22 years old, Edwards averaged 31.0 points per game on .512/.438/.839 shooting against Phoenix and has fully embraced the postseason stage, repeatedly directing trash talk toward Durant and the Suns. In Edwards, the Wolves have a player whom they can increasingly rely on to get them a basket in clutch moments, which is crucial in the playoffs.

And like Denver, the Wolves have no shortage of talented role players, with Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker leading the defense on the perimeter, Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid providing scoring off the bench, and veteran point guard Mike Conley serving as a stabilizing force on both ends of the floor.

It’s a fascinating intra-divisional matchup that should make for a terrific series. Sports betting site BetOnline.ag considers the Nuggets (-195) the solid favorites, but the Wolves’ resounding first-round victory over Phoenix signaled that this roster is built for real postseason success.

We want to know what you think. Are you picking Denver to advance or do you think Minnesota can pull off the upset? Do you expect the winner of this series to represent the West in the NBA Finals, or do you anticipate seeing the Thunder, Mavericks, or Clippers come out of the conference?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: First Round Playoff Series

April 23rd, 2024 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

After the NBA playoffs tipped off on Saturday with a handful of one-sided contests, things got a little more interesting on Sunday and Monday, with the Thunder, Knicks, and Nuggets among the teams to pull out victories in games that went down to the wire.

All three days of the playoffs so far, however, have had one thing in common: The home team has won. The road teams have an 0-11 record entering Tuesday’s action.

It’s not necessarily surprising that the home teams are controlling the eight series so far. Those clubs are the higher seeds, and home-court advantage is often a difference-maker in the postseason.

Still, it’s somewhat rare for the higher seeds to be quite this dominant to open the playoffs, especially when we saw so much parity during the regular season. The No. 2 and No. 8 seeds in the East finished the season just four games apart, while only two games separated the No. 4 to No. 7 teams in the West.

The lower seeds are going to start picking up some wins at some point, especially in Game 3s when they get to play on their respective home courts. But will any of them actually make it out of the first round?

Currently, BetOnline.ag lists all the lower seeds as series underdogs, giving the Mavericks (+140) the best chance to erase its 1-0 deficit and win the series. Those odds aren’t surprising — Dallas finished the season strong, was only a game behind the Clippers in the standings, and seems unlikely to face a fully healthy Kawhi Leonard in the first round.

The Suns (+150) and Pacers (+195) are also viewed as viable candidates to pull off upsets over Minnesota and Milwaukee, respectively. On the other hand, despite only being down 1-0 in their series, the Pelicans (+660) and Heat (+5000!) are massive underdogs vs. the Thunder and Celtics.

Of the teams who have to climb out of a 2-0 hole, BetOnline.ag views the Sixers (+380) as the strongest candidates for a comeback, followed by the Magic (+640) and Lakers (+870).

We want to know what you think. Will any of the eight lower seeds make it out of the first round? If so, which ones do you expect to see in round two?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Playoff Seeding Battles

April 13th, 2024 at 2:30pm CST by Luke Adams

With all 30 NBA teams enjoying a day off on Saturday, we have just one day of regular season games remaining in 2023/24, with 15 games on Sunday’s slate.

Amazingly, through 81 games, only three playoff seeds have been determined — the Celtics own the No. 1 seed in the East, the Clippers control No. 4 in the West, and the Mavericks are No. 5 in the West.

We also know that the Bulls are locked into the No. 9 spot in the East and will host the No. 10 Hawks in one of next week’s play-in games.

Besides that though, 15 of the 20 total top-10 seeds in the two conferences remain up for grabs, with much to be determined based on Sunday’s results.

Here’s a look at the matchups to watch and the scenarios in play on Sunday:

Western Conference

Battle for the No. 1 seed:

The Nuggets were in the driver’s seat for the top spot in the West, but as Bennett Durando of The Denver Post writes, they fell victim to another monster night from Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama on Friday, blowing a 23-point lead and falling all the way to third place in the conference standings as a result of a disappointing loss in San Antonio.

The Thunder and Timberwolves are now tied with Denver in the standings. All three teams have 56-25 records, but Oklahoma City holds the three-way tiebreaker, with Minnesota taking the second spot over the Nuggets for now. Their Sunday matchups are as follows:

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

If all three teams win or all three lose on Sunday, the current order in the standings (OKC at No. 1, Minnesota at No. 2, and Denver at No. 3) will remain as is. Here are the other scenarios in play on Sunday:

A Timberwolves win paired with either a Nuggets loss or a Thunder loss would give Minnesota the No. 1 seed, since the Wolves hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams.
The only scenario in which the Timberwolves would fall to No. 3 would be if they lose and the Thunder and Nuggets both win. That’s not inconceivable, given that Minnesota has the toughest matchup of the three — the Suns still have something to play for, whereas the Mavs’ playoff seed is assured and the Grizzlies are lottery-bound.
A Thunder win will ensure they claim the No. 1 seed unless the Nuggets lose and the Timberwolves win. The Thunder can fall to No. 3 only if they lose and the Nuggets win, regardless of what happens with Minnesota.
The Nuggets can only claim the No. 1 seed it they win and the Timberwolves and Thunder both lose. They could move up to No. 2 with a win as long as one of OKC or Minnesota loses. Otherwise they’ll place third.

The final top-six spot:

It’s down to the Pelicans and the Suns for the No. 6 spot in the West. Whichever team misses out on the final guaranteed playoff spot will finish seventh and will host the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in matchup.

New Orleans (49-32) has a one-game lead over Phoenix (48-33), but the Suns hold the tiebreaker edge. The Suns’ only path to No. 6 is to pick up a win in Minnesota while the Pelicans lose at home to the Lakers. Either a Pelicans win or a Suns loss would lock New Orleans into No. 6 and Phoenix into No. 7.

Given that both the Wolves and Lakers still have something to play for on Sunday, this outcome is far from certain.

The Nos. 8 through 10 seeds:

The Lakers (46-35), Kings (45-36), and Warriors (45-36) could each end up anywhere from No. 8 to 10 in the West depending on how the final day’s games play out.

The drop-off from each spot to the next is significant — the eighth-place team will only have to win one of two play-in games to earn a playoff berth and would get the second game at home if it loses the first one on the road. The ninth-place team would have to win two play-in games – one at home and one on the road – just to earn the No. 8 playoff seed, while the 10th-place team would need to win a pair of play-in contests on the road to claim that No. 8 seed.

The Lakers control their own destiny due to their one-game lead on Sacramento and Golden State, but they also have the most difficult matchup of the three teams on Sunday. Those games are as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors

New Orleans pulled out a big win over Golden State on Friday in a game that Klay Thompson said “stings a lot,” per Anthony Slater of The Athletic. The Pelicans won’t be letting their foot of the gas on Sunday as they look to secure a top-six seed, so a Lakers loss is in play.

If the Lakers do lose and both the Kings and Warriors win, Sacramento would move up to No. 8 and Golden State would move up to No. 9, sending L.A. to No. 10. That’s the only scenario in which the Lakers could slip to tenth place. A win would earn them the No. 8 spot, as would all three teams losing. They’d drop to No. 9 if they lose and just one of the Kings or Warriors wins.

The Kings are in relatively good shape. A win over the lottery-bound Blazers, which seems like a relatively safe bet, will assure them of at least the No. 9 spot. They’d fall to No. 10 only if they lose and Golden State wins.

The Warriors’ only path to No. 8 would involve a Golden State win combined with Lakers and Kings losses. That might be a long shot, so it’s perhaps not surprising that head coach Steve Kerr left the door open to possibly resting some key veterans on Sunday to make sure those banged-up players are ready for the first play-in game next week (Twitter link via Slater).

Eastern Conference

Battle for the No. 2 seed:

The reeling Bucks (49-32) have lost seven of their last 10 games, opening the door for either the Knicks (49-32) or Cavaliers (48-33) to steal away the No. 2 seed.

Still, Milwaukee remains at the front of this race. The Bucks own the tiebreaker over the Knicks, so they just need a win – or for all three teams to lose – in order to clinch No. 2. Unfortunately, they’re missing superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and have the most challenging matchup of any of the three contenders for No. 2. Sunday’s games are as follows:

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Magic continue to battle for a top-six seed in the East, whereas the Bulls are locked into No. 9 and the Hornets are a non-playoff team.

If the Knicks and Cavaliers win and the Bucks don’t, New York would move up to No. 2, Cleveland would take No. 3, and Milwaukee would slide all the way to No. 4. The Bucks could salvage the No. 3 seed even if they lose, as long as at least one of the Knicks or Cavs also lose.

A worst-case scenario for the Knicks would be a three-team tie, which would occur if they and the Bucks lose and the Cavs win. In that case, Cleveland would be No. 2 and New York would slip to No. 4.

Mayhem in the No. 5-8 range:

No section of the standings is more up in the air entering Sunday’s action than the fifth through eight seeds in the East, where four teams – the Magic (46-35), Pacers (46-35), Sixers (46-35), and Heat (45-36) – could all still finish anywhere from No. 5 to 8.

Before we try to untangle this convoluted knot, let’s take a look at the relevant Sunday games:

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat

All four clubs are at home, but some of these matchups are more favorable than others. The Nets and Raptors are lottery teams who don’t have anything to play for, so it’s hard to imagine them upsetting the Sixers or Heat, respectively. That will put pressure on the Magic and Pacers, who would hang onto the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds if they both win on Sunday.

As detailed above, Milwaukee is trying to clinch the No. 2 seed and will be motivated to beat Orlando. Atlanta is locked into No. 10, but knocking off Indiana could benefit the Hawks, who will need to beat one of these teams to make the playoffs, assuming they make it past Chicago. Atlanta might prefer seeing the Pacers instead of the Sixers or Heat in a play-in battle next week — beating Indiana on Sunday would increase the odds of that.

There are too many scenarios in play here to run through them all, but here are a few worth mentioning:

The Sixers would move up to No. 5 if they beat Brooklyn and the Hawks beat Indiana.
The Pacers would move up to No. 5 if they beat Atlanta and the Bucks beat Orlando.
The Heat can only get to No. 5 if they win and the Magic, Pacers, and Sixers all lose, resulting in a four-way tie. They could move up to No. 6 if they win, the Magic lose, and one of the Pacers or Sixers lose.
The Magic would fall to No. 8 if they lose and the Heat and Pacers win, regardless of what happens in the Sixers game. Orlando could also end up at No. 8 if Miami is the only one of these teams to win and they end up in a four-way tie.
The only scenario in which the Pacers could fall to No. 8 is if they lose and the Magic, Sixers, and Heat all win. Like the Magic, they’ll clinch a top-six playoff berth with a win.

The full table of Eastern Conference scenarios can be found right here, per the NBA, while all the Western outcomes are here.

We want to know what you think. How do you expect Sunday’s games to play out? Which teams will take the No. 1 seed in the West and the No. 2 seed in the East? Which clubs will claim the final playoff spots in each conference? And which team of the Lakers, Kings, and Warriors will end up in the 7-8 game instead of 9-10?

Head to the comment section below to make your predictions!

Community Shootaround: Better Prospect — Edey Or Clingan?

April 8th, 2024 at 5:44pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NCAA Tournament title game not only features the two most dominant teams this season but also the top big men in Division I. It’s a matchup of old-school centers between two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey of Purdue and Donovan Clingan of UConn.

In a different era, those low-post giants would have been the top picks of the draft. The 7’4” Edey has faced double and triple teams most of his college career but has simply towered over and overpowered those defenders. He’s finishing his college career with a flourish, averaging 28.0 points, 15.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.8 blocks during this year’s tournament.

Clingan was the nation’s best backup big man last season behind Adama Sanogo. The 7’2” Clingan moved into a starting role this season and has improved his draft stock this spring by averaging 16.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 3.6 blocks in the Huskies’ five tournament victories.

They are menacing low post presences at both ends of the floor but the college game is different from the pros. Traditional NBA centers have given way to more athletic players who can guard multiple positions and step out to stretch the floor offensively.

Edey has improved his conditioning — he’s averaging 35 minutes in the NCAAs — and footwork but does most of his damage within eight feet of the basket. The Boilermakers’ guards are adept at getting the ball to Edey at his sweet spots in the low post. Similarly, his defensive prowess is predicated on his sheer size and bulk.

Clingan offers a similar menacing presence at the rim but he’s more mobile and can cover more ground. He’s an effective screen-and-roller but, like Edey, most of his buckets come at or near the basket. He’s made a few three-pointers but, like Edey, will have to work on extending his range.

Currently in a weak draft, Clingan is considered the best domestic product. He’s listed as No. 3 overall on ESPN’s latest Best Available list. Edey is ranked No. 2 among centers and No. 13 overall. It’s a major rise for a projected second-round prospect last year when Edey tested the draft waters before deciding to return to Purdue one more season.

That brings us to our topic of the day: Which center in tonight’s NCAA championship game will have the biggest impact in the NBA — Purdue’s Zach Edey or UConn’s Donovan Clingan?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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