Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Odds For 2020/21

After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.

Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.

While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.

Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.

The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Nuggets: +1200
  • Rockets: +1200
  • Mavericks: +1400
  • Trail Blazers: +1800
  • Jazz: +2500
  • Pelicans: +2500
  • Suns: +3300
  • Thunder: +4000
  • Grizzlies: +5000
  • Kings: +12500
  • Spurs: +12500
  • Timberwolves: +12500

As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.

Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Odds For 2020/21

The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.

At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.

The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Raptors: +750
  • Sixers: +1200
  • Bulls: +3300
  • Hawks: +3300
  • Pacers: +3300
  • Wizards: +3300
  • Magic: +10000
  • Cavaliers: +12500
  • Knicks: +12500
  • Pistons: +12500
  • Hornets: +17500

It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.

Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!

Community Shootaround: Heat Free Agents

The Heat surprised virtually everyone but themselves by reaching the Finals. And with two more victories, they’ll complete their Cinderella run.

Miami is positioned to become a powerhouse for years to come if it makes the right moves. Jimmy Butler has not only cemented his status as a star player during the restart but has now established himself as a franchise player. Tyler Herro‘s performances have many NBA executives kicking themselves for passing him up in last season’s draft. He’s, of course, in the early stages of his rookie deal.

However, a big chunk of their roster is filled with players can become free agents this offseason or in 2021. Team president Pat Riley has spent the last couple of years making moves to open up plenty of salary cap room for top-level free agents next season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of the wish list.

The play of a couple of veterans during the playoff run could complicate the process, particularly Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents this fall. Dragic has only played 15 minutes during the Finals due to a foot injury but the Heat would have been eliminated in the earlier rounds if not for his steady playmaking.

Dragic has averaged 19.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.6 APG during the postseason. He set the tone for the series against Milwaukee and Boston, scoring 50 points against the Bucks in the first two games of that series and 54 against the Celtics when Miami jumped to a 2-0 lead.

Crowder was kind of an afterthought in the February trade with Memphis that brought Andre Iguodala to the Heat. Instead, he’s proven more valuable than Iguodala, averaging 12.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG in 31.6 MPG while making 34.6% of his 3s. He’s an even bigger force on the defensive end, often assigned to the opponent’s top scorer. He can switch onto much bigger frontcourt players and still hold his own.

Dragic is 34 and Crowder is 30 and this could be their last shot at landing lucrative, multi-year deals. While the Heat’s balance sheet could allow Riley to reward them in free agency, there are other considerations. Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn can become restricted free agents next summer and either one could receive a lucrative offer sheet, given their youth and production.

There’s also the overall concerns about how much the cap and luxury tax threshold could drop due to the loss of revenue during the pandemic.

That leads us to our question of the day: If Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder seek multi-year deals in free agency, should the Heat still try to re-sign them or should they continue to preserve cap space for next offseason? If they decide to sign one but not the other, which player should they pursue?

Please weigh in on this topic in the comments section. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Knicks’ Offseason Trade Options

With only about $56MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season, the Knicks have the flexibility necessary to create cap room and make a run at one or more top free agents. However, the team also feels as if it’s well-positioned to trade for an impact player, as an April report indicated.

This year’s free agent class isn’t particularly star-heavy, so it’s possible that greasing the wheels for a blockbuster trade may be a better use of the Knicks’ cap space. Plus, New York has accumulated seven first-round picks in the next four drafts and has a roster loaded with former lottery selections, so the team could put together an appealing package for the right player.

In a report this week, Marc Berman of The New York Post indicated that Pacers guard Victor Oladipo could be that player. Knicks general manager Scott Perry, who drafted Oladipo when he was a member of the Magic front office in 2013, “still is enamored” with him, according to Berman, and there have been rumblings that the All-Star may not be fully committed to Indiana for the long term.

Thunder guard Chris Paul, a former CAA client of new Knicks president of basketball operations Leon Rose, is another potential trade target for the franchise.

Writing today about that possibility in a separate story for The New York Post, Berman suggests that Oklahoma City would likely seek a first-round pick and a young prospect on his rookie contract in return for Paul. According to Berman, the Thunder would probably target Kevin Knox in a deal with New York, while the Knicks would rather give up Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

Oladipo and Paul aren’t the only potential trade candidates who could catch the Knicks’ eye this offseason, but they’re probably two of the only All-Stars who will realistically be available. Within his initial article on Oladipo, Berman names three more trade targets who would intrigue the Knicks, but it’s hard to imagine any of them (Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Paul George) actually changing teams this fall.

Of course, even if Embiid, Towns, George, or another superstar becomes available, the cost to acquire them in a trade would be extremely high. On the other hand, there are certain factors that should keep the price tags of Oladipo (health; expiring contract) and Paul (age; exorbitant salary) in check, which may appeal to the Knicks — making a trade for one of those two players could help New York move back toward playoff contention without emptying the team’s treasure chest of assets.

In today’s Community Shootaround, we want to get your input on the Knicks’ offseason options.

Does Oladipo look like an appealing trade target for New York? How about Paul? Should the team wait for a star with fewer question marks to become available before looking to trade future first-round picks? Or should the Knicks altogether avoid trading multiple assets for one impact player, focusing instead – for now at least – on using their cap room to sign free agents or to keep adding draft picks by taking on unwanted contracts?

Head to the comment section to share your thoughts on the Knicks’ offseason plan!

Community Shootaround: All-NBA Format, Snubs

The league announced its three All-NBA squads for the 2019/20 season earlier today, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James leading the way as the only two unanimous First Team selections.

While the First Team looked exactly as expected, there were some mild surprises on the next two teams. For instance, I didn’t expect to see Pascal Siakam on the Second Team over Third Team forward Jayson Tatum, who was having a stronger season even before March 11, in my opinion.

While I thought Siakam’s contributions to the Raptors were weighed a bit too heavily, I would’ve liked to find room on the Third Team for his teammate Kyle Lowry. Lowry’s box-score numbers weren’t nearly as splashy as Russell Westbrook‘s, but the Raptors guard was a more well-rounded, two-way contributor who was arguably more important than Siakam to the success of the No. 2 seed in the East.

It also would have been good to see Bucks wing Khris Middleton recognized for his career year with a spot on the Third Team, though I’d have a hard time removing Jimmy Butler – the Heat’s only All-NBA representative – or Ben Simmons, who was one of the league’s best defensive players this season.

Middleton’s candidacy raises an interesting question. His 10 Second Team votes and 52 Third Team votes earned him 82 overall points, which exceeded Simmons’ total (61) and Westbrook’s (56). Because Middleton received his votes primarily as a forward rather than a guard, he missed out on an All-NBA spot.

The positional aspect of the All-NBA vote has increasingly become something of a fly in the ointment as the league transitions into a more positionless style of game. Ball-dominant players like James, Luka Doncic, and Simmons could theoretically be considered either guards or forwards, as could wings like Butler and Middleton. Anthony Davis, meanwhile, could easily have been listed as a forward since he typically started alongside JaVale McGee in Los Angeles, but he was voted in as the First Team’s center.

Could it be time for the NBA to revamp All-NBA voting to allow media members to simply select the 15 best players in the league? After all, there’s already a precedent in the All-Rookie teams, which don’t require voters to list players by position. Even a half-measure like All-Star voting, which now breaks down players into two groups – guards and frontcourt players – could be an improvement.

We want to hear what you think. Did voters get it right with their 15 picks, or did you feel there were one or two glaring snubs? Going forward, would you like to see the league tweak the All-NBA format to loosen restrictions on positions or eliminate them entirely?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Pacers’ Coaching Search

Shortly after the Pacers parted ways last month with Nate McMillan, president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard spoke about wanting the team’s head coaching search to “start with a big pool, then get down smaller and smaller.” Based on reports this week, it sounds like Pritchard is delivering on that promise.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski identified 14 initial candidates for the Pacers’ head coaching job. He later added a 15th, reporting that former Finals MVP Chauncey Billups is also receiving consideration.

Pritchard and the Pacers will be seeking a coach who has a “modern approach” to the game and an ability to connect with younger players. Even with that criteria in mind, it’s hard to know which of the team’s initial candidates may make the strongest impression.

A number of the candidates being interviewed by the Pacers – including David Vanterpool, Nate Tibbetts, Will Hardy, Becky Hammon, Stephen Silas, Jamahl Mosley, Darvin Ham, Ime Udoka, and Pat Delany – are experienced assistants who have interviewed for other head coaching jobs. It’s possible one of them will stand out during the process and make the Pacers comfortable with hiring a first-time head coach.

Other assistants on Indiana’s list, including Charles Lee, Chris Quinn, and Dan Craig, may be a bit more under the radar, having not been linked to many – or any – head coaching jobs in the past, so they should probably be considered dark-horse candidates.

Dave Joerger and Jacque Vaughn are the two candidates who have previously held head coaching jobs. Joerger’s on-court results in Memphis and Sacramento were actually pretty solid, but he clashed at times with players and executives during those stops. Vaughn, meanwhile, overachieved with a depleted Brooklyn team this summer in Orlando, but was passed over by the Nets for their permanent job.

Billups is a wild card in the Pacers’ process. According to Wojnarowski, people around the league have long believed that the former Pistons guard would land a significant role with an NBA organization due to his leadership style and “basketball savvy.” But he has never even served as an assistant, so it remains to be seen if the Pacers would be comfortable rolling the dice on him.

Another wild card is current Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni, who was the first name connected to Indiana on the day the team fired McMillan. D’Antoni still has a job, and GM Daryl Morey recently spoke about wanting to retain the veteran coach.

However, D’Antoni’s contract is up, and if his Rockets are dispatched by the Lakers in Game 5 on Saturday with a fourth straight loss, it would end the season on a sour note. It’s possible he and the Rockets wouldn’t be as enthusiastic about a new deal at that point, freeing him up to join a team like the Pacers, who would surely welcome his free-wheeling offense.

What do you think? Is there a candidate on the Pacers’ current list who stands out to you as an obvious choice? Are there any candidates not on their list that you think they should be considering? Who do you expect to become Indiana’s next head coach?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: All-Defensive Snubs

The NBA announced its All-Defensive teams for the 2019/20 season on Tuesday, and there weren’t many surprises among the 10 players who made the cut.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, and Rudy Gobert – the three finalists for Defensive Player of the Year – headlined the First Team along with guards Ben Simmons and Marcus Smart. Former two-time DPOY Kawhi Leonard led the way on the Second Team, joined by teammate Patrick Beverley, as well as Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, and Bam Adebayo.

While none of the inclusions on this year’s All-Defensive teams were particularly egregious, the announcement still drew the ire of some players and observers who felt that certain defenders were overlooked.

Pelicans guard J.J. Redick, for instance, argued (via Twitter) that teammate Jrue Holiday is the best defensive guard in the league and was snubbed in this year’s voting. Holiday received a pair of First Team votes and 14 Second Team votes, placing him third among guards who didn’t make the cut, behind Kris Dunn and Kyle Lowry.

Speaking of Lowry, former NBA swingman Mario Elie took exception to the fact that the Raptors guard didn’t make an All-Defensive squad this season, and singled out Rockets forward P.J. Tucker as another player who shouldn’t have been omitted. Tucker’s 29 Second Team votes placed him atop the list of forwards who missed the cut, just ahead of Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, and Pascal Siakam.

It’s worth noting that when Jon Krawczynski and Josh Robbins of The Athletic conducted an anonymous coaches poll on the All-Defensive teams earlier this summer, Tucker was the one player in the coaches’ 10-player group who didn’t eventually earn a spot on the official All-Defensive teams — those anonymous coaches voted Tucker in over Lopez.

What do you think? Do Holiday, Lowry, Tucker, or any other players have legitimate gripes, or did voters get it pretty much right? Were there any players on either of this year’s All-Defensive teams who you felt didn’t deserve their spot?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Jazz’s Future

The playoff series between with the Jazz and Nuggets was arguably the most entertaining of the first round. It featured a brilliant guard duel between Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray and wasn’t decided until the final buzzer of Game 7.

Denver advanced to play the Clippers, while Utah left Orlando facing an interesting and difficult off-season. Mitchell certainly solidified his status as the team’s star and most dynamic player.

The question hovering over the franchise is how can it go from a playoff team to a serious title contender? It’s hard to take that next step without multiple All-Stars.

Rudy Gobert is, of course, one of the league’s premier defenders but he’s limited offensively in a league where big man are now expected to expand their offensive games beyond the paint.

Mike Conley, who will almost assuredly opt in for the remaining $34.5MM on his contract, didn’t have as big an impact on the franchise as hoped when Utah traded for him last summer. His expiring contract, should he opt in, could be their best trade asset.

Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles are solid, if unspectacular, role players with multiple years left on their contracts. The Jazz were missing a key piece in Orlando in Bojan Bogdanovic and they have expressed strong interest in re-signing free agent sixth man Jordan Clarkson, though other teams will be pursuing his services. Bogdanovic could have easily been the difference in the opening-round series, though it must be mentioned that the Nuggets advanced despite injuries to multiple rotation players.

That brings us to our question of the day: What should the Jazz do improve their roster and get to the next level?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Do The Bucks Have A Chance?

Of all the unusual things that have happened since the NBA’s restart began, nothing would be more surprising than to see the East’s top seed swept out of the playoffs. But that’s the situation facing the Bucks, who will be fighting to save their season Sunday against Miami.

The Heat took complete control of the series Friday, outscoring Milwaukee 40-13 in the final quarter to complete their comeback. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic have all been dominant as Miami has won its first seven playoff games.

Making things even more dire for the Bucks is an ankle injury that reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered early in Game 3. He was able to produce 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists while playing through pain, but has been listed as questionable for tomorrow afternoon.

John Hollinger of The Athletic examines the criticisms being directed at Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer and disputes several of them. Budenholzer is taking heat for not playing his stars enough, but Hollinger notes that Miami is handling its top players the same way. He also points out that Budenholzer’s system, which is under fire, has produced success in the past. The Bucks won 10 of their first 11 playoff games last season before falling to Toronto in the conference finals.

The implications of a second-round loss are huge for Milwaukee and they stretch far beyond this season. Several teams have been making sure they have plenty of cap room for next summer in case Antetokounmpo opts for free agency rather than a long-term deal with the Bucks. A report this week indicates that rumors at the Disney World campus have the Heat and Raptors as frontrunners to land Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks face four must-win games that will likely affect the future of the franchise. Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press tweets that no team with a winning percentage as high as Milwaukee’s has ever been swept, but that’s little consolation as they try to figure out how to survive, possibly without their star player.

We want to get your opinion. Do the Bucks have a chance to make history by rallying from a 3-0 deficit, or should the series be considered over? Please leave your responses in the space below.

Community Shootaround: Bulls’ Coaching Search

The Bulls procrastinated this summer before ultimately deciding to part ways with head coach Jim Boylen. The new front office is moving much more quickly to find a replacement.

They have begun conducting interviews and received permission to talk to more candidates on the staffs of playoff teams. They may look to hire a coach by the middle of the month, when organized team activities begin for the teams that weren’t invited to the Orlando campus.

That biggest name that has surfaced is former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson.

Otherwise, the front office appears to be focused on hiring an NBA assistant. That group includes the Sixers’ Ime Udoka, the Nuggets’ Wes Unseld Jr., the Bucks’ Darvin Ham, the Mavericks’ Stephen Silas, the Timberwolves’ David Vanterpool, the Mavericks’ Jamahl Mosley and the Heat’s Dan Craig.

Bulls assistants Chris Fleming and Roy Rogers could also get a look from Bulls executive VP Arturas Karnisovas.

Karnisovas has stated that Chicago is seeking a head coach who “puts the relationship with players first” and is “a good communicator.” It’s still possible other former head coaches besides Atkinson could be added to the list.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the Bulls hire a former head coach like Kenny Atkinson or find an up-and-coming assistant to turn the team into a playoff contender?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.