Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: Spurs’ Offseason Plans

While some NBA teams’ offseason checklists are fairly straightforward, there are a handful of clubs that could realistically go in any number of directions with their rosters in the next couple weeks.

The Spurs are one of those clubs. After seeing their streak of postseason appearances snapped this summer, San Antonio will have to decide what to do with veterans like DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay, all of whom will be on pricey expiring contracts in 2020/21, assuming DeRozan exercises his player option.

San Antonio’s books are nearly entirely clear of veteran contracts beyond 2021, and the team has a promising young core of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, Keldon Johnson, and Luka Samanic to build around. If the front office decides to accelerate the rebuilding process, it could do so by moving some of those veterans.

The Spurs don’t typically make blockbuster trades unless their hand is forced (as in the case of Kawhi Leonard two summers ago). A typical offseason in San Antonio would probably involve hanging onto their veterans, perhaps extending DeRozan and re-signing restricted free agent Jakob Poeltl, and betting on internal improvement to help the club return to playoff contention.

However, multiple NBA reporters are suggesting that the Spurs may have something bigger in mind this fall. Within his mock draft on Tuesday, John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote of “unusually large plumes of smoke” coming out of San Antonio for a team that is “normally church-mouse quiet.”

Today, draft analyst and former agent Matt Babcock tweeted that there’s a “growing sense” in league circles that the Spurs are up to “something big.” Keith Smith of RealGM (Twitter link) has also heard from multiple teams that the Spurs are “up to something” and that they’re talking to more people than usual.

It’s hard to know yet whether all of this smoke means there will be any fire next week — or what exactly San Antonio might have up its sleeve. A trade involving Aldridge or DeRozan would be the most obvious way for the club to make a splash, and there has been a little Aldridge chatter, at least. A deal involving one of the younger players shouldn’t be ruled out either, if the Spurs aren’t sold on all of them being long-term building blocks.

It’s also worth noting that the Spurs hold a lottery pick (No. 11) for the first time in over two decades. The last time San Antonio drafted a player in the lottery was in 1997, when the team used the top pick on Tim Duncan. The last time the franchise made a draft-night trade to acquire a prospect picked in the top half of the first round was in 2011 for Leonard.

It’s probably safe to say this year’s selection won’t become a Duncan or Leonard, but if San Antonio has zeroed in on a specific 2020 prospect, the organization is in far better position than usual to land that player, even if it means trade up a few spots.

What do you think? Do you expect a fairly quiet offseason in San Antonio or do you think the Spurs could make some noise this month? If you’re expecting bigger moves, what do you suspect the team has in mind?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: 72-Game Schedule

For decades, there have been complaints that the NBA’s season is too long. Playing 82 games dilutes the product, critics claim, and lessens the importance of each one. It also creates a marathon atmosphere that presents a high risk of injury and causes players to sometimes seem unmotivated.

People who have wanted to see the league try a shorter schedule are about to get their wish. After the chaos caused last season by the pandemic, the NBA and its players union have agreed to take steps toward a normal timeline by adopting a 72-game schedule that will start December 22.

Details on how those 72 games will be allocated still have to be worked out. The NBA hopes to reduce travel during the upcoming season, so games between teams from the Eastern and Western conferences could be reduced or even eliminated. An All-Star break is still expected in March, although it hasn’t been determined if it will include normal All-Star Weekend activities. A play-in tournament could also be adopted.

If the upcoming season is successful, the league may attempt to keep the shorter schedule, writes Jabari Young of CNBC.

“I would argue, with a leap of faith, that we’ll never see 82 again,” said Tony Ponturo, CEO of Ponturo Management Group, a marketing consulting firm. “It’s going to be better across the board of quality basketball and healthier athletes. You take the (revenue) hit and figure out how to make it up in other ways.”

Young also cites comments from NBA president of operations Byron Spruell, who suggested at the Disney World complex that the league would be open to schedule changes if they result in a better product. Another idea being considered is adopting series schedules, much like Major League Baseball, to make road trips less exhausting.

“Having this experience around being on a campus, with health and safety first – there are a lot of learnings that make you think about,” Spruell said in August. “Is there something in between given where the pandemic might be next season, given the experience we’re seeing from our teams and players in this campus format? Is there something in between that we’ll be able to accomplish, too?”

The obvious concern with a shorter schedule is the lost revenue as each team has five fewer home games. Young cites several ways to make up the difference, including higher ticket prices as games become more scarce, increased revenue from the play-in games and additional sponsorship opportunities.

We want to get your opinion. Do you believe there would be a noticeable difference in the quality of play with a permanent 72-game schedule or would you prefer to see the league continue with its traditional 82-game slate? Please leave your answer in the comments section.

Community Shootaround: Jrue Holiday

With a moratorium in effect, the Pelicans can’t trade Jrue Holiday at the moment. However, they are reportedly listening to offers for the talented combo guard, who has two years left on his contract, including a $27.1MM player option for the 2021/22 season.

Holiday’s hefty $26.2MM salary for next season could be a stumbling block for potential suitors but there’s expected to be stiff competition for his services. William Guillory and other members of The Athletic staff provided their opinions on the teams most likely to pursue Holiday, concluding that the Nets, Pacers, Heat and Mavericks were the logical landing spots.

In search of third star or something close to it, the Nets could formulate a package that might include some combination of Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Taurean Prince and one or two first-round picks, The Athletic speculated. The Pacers could offer a deal featuring center Myles Turner, who has three years left on his contract, to make him Zion Williamson‘s frontcourt partner.

The Heat may have to part with postseason star Tyler Herro, salary filler, and a draft pick to entice the Pelicans. The Mavericks would presumably have strong interest in pairing Holiday with Luka Doncic but the potential return for New Orleans is tougher to figure — perhaps a package that includes Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry.

That leads us to our question of the day: If the Pelicans deal Holiday, where is he most likely to end up?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Next Head Coach In OKC

While the other eight teams with head coaching vacancies this offseason have made their choices, the process continues in Oklahoma City. With the draft two weeks away, the Thunder still haven’t settled on a replacement for Billy Donovan.

The latest report is that Spurs assistant coach Will Hardy, Bucks assistant Charles Lee and Oklahoma City assistant Mark Daigneault are all receiving strong consideration after their interviews. Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool, Raptors assistant Adrian GriffinThunder assistant Brian Keefe and Sydney Kings head coach Will Weaver have also been linked to the OKC opening.

Most of the big-name coaches are already off the market. However, the Thunder seem to be looking for a younger coach willing to oversee a rebuilding project, although it may be a short one. With Chris Paul reportedly on the trade market and Danilo Gallinari entering free agency, Oklahoma City appears ready to construct the team around a collection of young talent and the parcel of draft picks it received from the Clippers in last summer’s trade for Paul George.

The Thunder could have a surprise in store that doesn’t involve any of the above candidates, suggests Marc Stein of The New York Times. He calls it a “Prestian move,” referring to general manger Sam Presti, to hire someone who hasn’t been publicly connected to the job.

Considering the future assets on hand and the likely roster shakeup, who do you believe would be the best choice to guide the Thunder? Would it be one of the rumored candidates or someone else who is still available? Please leave your answer in the comments section.

Community Shootaround: Clippers Moves

With the possible exception of the Bucks, no team left the Orlando campus more disappointed that the Clippers.

Expectations of a championship for the long-downtrodden franchise went through the roof after they signed superstar free agent Kawhi Leonard and made a blockbuster trade for Paul George last summer.

They appeared headed for a Western Conference Finals showdown with the Lakers until they squandered some big leads and a 3-1 series lead to the upstart Nuggets.

The flameout ultimately cost head coach Doc Rivers his job. The front office settled on Rivers’ top assistant and former Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue to replace him.

As long as Leonard and George stay healthy, the Clippers will undoubtedly make the postseason again but the memories of their collapse will linger unless they make amends and reach the Finals.

Beyond their perennial All-Stars, the Clippers have some tough decisions to make regarding their roster. Young center Ivica Zubac and guards Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Landry Shamet are the only other rotation players locked into contracts for next seasons. Their prospects for making a significant trade are dim, considering they gave up a bucketful of first rounders to acquire George.

JaMychal Green has a $5MM option on his contract and should he decline it, the Clippers will have to rebuild their frontcourt. Marcus Morris and Montrezl Harrell are headed to unrestricted free agency and the Clippers already have $109MM in salary commitments to nine players.

Harrell won the Sixth Man of the Year award but he had a rather forgettable experience in Orlando. Morris will attract plenty of interest in the free agent market, though he didn’t have as great an impact as the Clippers hoped when they traded for him in February.

The front office will have to prioritize which of those forwards they wish to retain and likely dip into the free agent market to fortify the guard rotation and frontcourt. Depending on whether they have a full mid-level exception or the taxpayers’ MLE, they could be looking at players such as Goran Dragic, D.J. Augustin, Jeff Teague, Serge Ibaka, Derrick Favors, Marc Gasol and Aron Baynes.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What should the Clippers do in free agency? Should they concentrate on re-signing their prominent free agents or pursue other options?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Start Of Next Season

It took a few extra months to get to the finish line of the 2019/20 season. The starting point of next season is now shrouded in mystery.

As we noted earlier today, there’s great uncertainty regarding next season’s schedule.

In June, the league projected a December 1 start to next season. In September, the league office told the league’s Board of Governors the season wouldn’t start until after Christmas. There were projections that the season might start as late as March.

That all changed during a Board of Governors meeting last week, as the league’s finance committee recommended a pre-Christmas start date. Naturally, Christmas Day is normally a showcase for the league with a handful of games spread throughout the holiday but the revenue concerns come more at the back end than the front end.

The restart playoffs were a TV ratings dud, as fans were not accustomed to watching regular season and postseason games during the summertime and early fall. There’s also a strong desire among the league’s power brokers to have some sense of normalcy by the 2021/22 season, with that season beginning with a usual starting point in late October.

However, selling the players on this plan won’t be a slam dunk, particularly among the playoff participants. During a TV interview on Monday, Lakers guard Danny Green predicted numerous players would sit out the early portion of the season, adding that “I wouldn’t expect [LeBron James] to be there for the first month of the season.”

A quick turnaround would also make it much less likely to have fans in the stands as well as shortening the free agency period following the November draft. On the flip side. an earlier start date could preserve as much as $500MM in revenue, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA start next season around Christmas in order to finish earlier in the summer? Or should the league wait until later in the winter in order to give the players more rest and increase the chances of having fans in the stands?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Best, Worst Head Coaching Hires

More coaching vacancies were filled this week, with Nate Bjorkgren and Stan Van Gundy becoming the sixth and seventh head coaches hired since July. The Pacers believe Bjorkgren can deliver the modern offense they were looking for when they decided to replace Nate McMillan, while the Pelicans were impressed by Van Gundy’s leadership skills and his track record at his previous stops in Miami, Orlando and Detroit.

Earlier in the week, the Clippers officially promoted Tyronn Lue to head coach to take over for Doc Rivers. Lue inherits one of the most talented rosters in the league and already has a familiarity with his players after serving as lead assistant under Rivers for the past year.

This year’s coaching moves started in late July when the Knicks reached an agreement to bring Tom Thibodeau to New York. Thibodeau was rumored to be in contention for jobs with several teams that were part of the NBA’s restart, so the Knicks took advantage of their opportunity as one of the league’s eight inactive clubs.

Steve Nash was the most surprising move of the offseason as the Nets hired the two-time MVP as their head coach without any previous experience. Nash beat out interim coach Jacque Vaughn, along with an impressive field of rumored candidates that included Lue, Lakers assistant Jason Kidd, ABC/ESPN broadcasters Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson and Sixers assistant Ime Udoka.

Two other head coaches were hired shortly after being dismissed by other teams. The Sixers jumped at the chance to add Rivers, reaching an agreement three days after he was fired by the Clippers. Likewise, the Bulls pounced on Billy Donovan after the Thunder let him go.

Houston and Oklahoma City still have vacancies to fill, but we want to get your feedback on the coaching changes so far. Which teams made the best and worst decisions in choosing their head coaches? Please leave your answers in the comment section.

Community Shootaround: How Many More Rings For LeBron?

Last summer, it appeared LeBron James might have to be content with three championship rings. He was 34, well past the prime for most NBA players, and was coming off the most serious injury of his career. He was also sitting out the playoffs for the first time since the 2004/05 season.

Everything looks different now, of course. LeBron and the Lakers tore through the competition in Orlando, being pushed past five games only by the Heat. James averaged 29.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists during the Finals and became the second-oldest player ever to win Finals MVP honors.

A fourth championship ring enhances his place in history and gives him a chance to join even more elite company. Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson and Tim Duncan are among the players with five. Michael Jordan, whom James is frequently compared to, has six, as do Scottie Pippen, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob Cousy.

The Lakers look capable of winning multiple titles. Anthony Davis turned out to be a perfect complement for James and may be at the peak of his career at age 27. The rest of the roster is a mix of youth and veterans who all fit well into their prescribed roles. Avery Bradley, who opted out of the restart, seems likely to return next season, adding another strong defensive presence to the backcourt.

The biggest wild card is how long James can remain at an elite level. He averaged 34.6 minutes per game this season, which is the lowest of his career, but not by much. James led the league in assists for the first time at 10.2 per game, while adding 25.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. Remarkably, his production per 36 minutes has barely changed from a decade ago.

James is under contract for one more season and holds a $41MM player option for 2021/22. There’s no certainty beyond that, but he hasn’t even hinted at retirement. The Lakers will try to maximize his title opportunities for as long as he’s on the roster and have shown a willingness to spend whatever is necessary.

We want to get your opinion. How many more titles do you believe James will win before retirement? Please leave your answers in the comment section.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Odds For 2020/21

After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.

Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.

While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.

Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.

The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Nuggets: +1200
  • Rockets: +1200
  • Mavericks: +1400
  • Trail Blazers: +1800
  • Jazz: +2500
  • Pelicans: +2500
  • Suns: +3300
  • Thunder: +4000
  • Grizzlies: +5000
  • Kings: +12500
  • Spurs: +12500
  • Timberwolves: +12500

As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.

Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Odds For 2020/21

The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.

At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.

The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Raptors: +750
  • Sixers: +1200
  • Bulls: +3300
  • Hawks: +3300
  • Pacers: +3300
  • Wizards: +3300
  • Magic: +10000
  • Cavaliers: +12500
  • Knicks: +12500
  • Pistons: +12500
  • Hornets: +17500

It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.

Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!