Community Shootaround

Community Shootaround: 2020’s Rookie Scale Extension Candidates

Every year, former first-round picks who are entering the fourth and final season of their rookie scale contracts become eligible to sign rookie scale extensions, which allow their teams to lock them up for multiple seasons and avoid restricted free agency.

As we detailed on Wednesday, there are 24 players who will become eligible for rookie scale extensions this year, whenever the 2020/21 league year officially begins.

In recent years, as few as four players (2017) and as many as nine (2019) have signed offseason rookie scale extensions. However, given the unusual circumstances created by the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s extension period could look different than usual.

Based on the uncertainty about how the NBA’s lost revenue will affect the league’s salary cap going forward, players might be more reluctant to lock themselves into long-term contracts a year before reaching restricted free agency. Conversely, a team considering offering a player a long-term extension this year will have to weigh how financially advantageous it will be to wait until 2021 to make that offer — doing so could allow the team to take advantage of its player’s modest RFA cap hold and maximize cap room that may be at a premium.

Still, it’s a safe bet that at least a handful of teams will pursue rookie scale extensions this offseason. Completing those deals early helps a team maintain a good relationship with the player and his agent, and provides that team with long-term cost certainty on one of its rising young stars.

In 2020, the players who most obviously fit that bill are Jayson Tatum (Celtics), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), Bam Adebayo (Heat), and De’Aaron Fox (Kings). It seems likely that Boston, Utah, Miami, and Sacramento will be eager to sign those players to extensions worth the maximum salary or something very close to it.

While those four players are the most obvious extension candidates, there’s no shortage of others. John Collins (Hawks) leads the second tier, having expressed that he believes he’s max-worthy as well. Jonathan Isaac (Magic) and Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) won’t get the max, but they look like players their teams will want to build around. OG Anunoby (Raptors) and Derrick White (Spurs) are probably keepers too, though it’s possible Toronto and San Antonio will wait a year to let the RFA market set their prices.

After that, we start to get into some more challenging cases. Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), and Zach Collins (Trail Blazers) could have cemented their cases for extensions this season, but Markkanen took a step back, Kuzma struggled to find his fit on the new-look Lakers, and Collins appeared in just three games before a shoulder injury derailed his season.

Luke Kennard (Pistons) would normally be a solid candidate for a new deal, but it’s not clear whether or not Detroit envisions him as a core piece or a potential trade candidate. The same goes for Jarrett Allen (Nets), who lost his starting center job before the NBA suspended its season.

We want to know what you think. Which of this year’s 24 extension-eligible players – perhaps including some of the ones we didn’t mention above – are the best bets for new deals this offseason? How do you think the NBA’s financial situation might impact those negotiations? Will we see fewer rookie scale extensions than usual or approximately the same amount?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Buddy Hield

Just over four months ago, Kings sharpshooter Buddy Hield – upset about hardly seeing any fourth-quarter action in a pair of close losses – told reporters there were “trust issues” in Sacramento. Less than a month later, in January, he was removed from the Kings’ starting lineup in favor of Bogdan Bogdanovic. And a few weeks after that, in mid-February, a report from The Athletic suggested it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Hield requests a trade in the offseason.

It looked like a troubling series of events for the Kings, particularly since Hield had raved about establishing an “instant connection” with new head coach Luke Walton in September and signed a four-year, $86MM extension with the franchise in October. That long-term contract, which goes into effect beginning in 2020/21, was supposed to make Hield one of Sacramento’s core building blocks. An up-and-down season raised uncertainty about whether that’s still the case.

Still, there have been recent signals that any tension between Hield and the Kings may not be as bad as it looked. As we relayed earlier this week, Sam Amick of The Athletic wrote that Sacramento’s late-season surge significantly reduced the likelihood that Walton or GM Vlade Divac will be replaced before ’20/21. And it seems possible that Hield, who insisted in December that he’s a team-first who only cares about winning, will be increasingly receptive to a sixth man role if it’s helping the Kings win games.

Speaking to Amick, Walton downplayed the idea that the Hield situation was any sort of cause for concern, adding that he and the 27-year-old have a “very good relationship” and get along well.

“Buddy was not happy about not starting, but he didn’t b—h,” Walton said. “He said, ‘You’re the coach. I’m going to do what I need to do.’ … Even with Buddy (coming off the bench), he was still playing starter minutes, he was still finishing certain games, and it’s one of those things where if you’re truly bought into being on the team, you end up accepting it because that’s a huge value. … And I thought Buddy had really, really done a nice job of embracing that and making our team better.”

The Kings played their best basketball of the season with Hield coming off the bench, winning 13 of 20 contests. His per-minute production improved noticeably during that stretch as well. After averaging 20.0 PPG with a .416/.360/.816 shooting line in 44 games (34.4 MPG) as a starter, Hield recorded 19.4 PPG on .465/.476/.970 shooting in 26.6 MPG off the bench.

After clearing some future money from their cap at the trade deadline, the Kings are considered likely to re-sign Bogdanovic, an RFA-to-be who is “very good friends” with Hield, according to Walton. That means that Hield could remain in his reserve role beyond this season.

It will be a fascinating situation to watch. Hield has become one of the NBA’s very best three-point shooters and would be highly coveted on the trade market if he were made available. But his four-year commitment to Sacramento wouldn’t give him much leverage, and he may be happy to stick with the Kings if the team continues building on its second-half success, regardless of whether or not he’s starting.

What do you think? Do you expect Hield to push for a trade this offseason, or is this a non-issue, as Walton suggests? Are you bullish on the Kings’ outlook, or would you be worried about another disappointing season reigniting Hield’s frustrations? Will he be satisfied with a sixth man role, or do you expect him to reenter the starting lineup at some point?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Best Young Building Block

Tim Bontemps of ESPN.com asked 20 people within the NBA community, including coaches, executives, and scouts about which player they’d want to build around in the future. Each was asked to rank the following players: Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Trae Young.

The overwhelming majority selected Doncic, as he received 17 first-place votes and tallied the three second-place votes where he wasn’t the top choice. Morant was the top choice for two people and Williamson for just one.

“I don’t know if Luka can be any better than he is,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “He’s really good. But I think this might be who he is — which is very good.

“But Ja can get better in terms of his shooting, his team will get better around him and he makes players better around him. I think he can affect the game at both ends.”

Morant, who went No. 2 overall in the 2019 draft, getting more first-place votes than Williamson is surprising.

“Health,” said a Western Conference scout when asked why he ranked Williamson third among the four young stars. “He’d be (No. 1) otherwise.

How would you rank the four players if given the chance to start a franchise with a young star? Take to the comment section below to share your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to hearing what you have to say!

Community Shootaround: NBA Draft

Due to a lack of live sports action, the NFL is drawing record ratings for its annual draft.

The NBA may have to follow the NFL’s lead and hold its draft remotely, though it’s very unlikely the draft will remain in June unless the season is already canceled by that point.

There are some obvious differences between the NBA and NFL drafts in any year, particularly the way business is conducted and needs are filled. NFL teams are filling out their rosters and addressing their remaining holes after free agency, while the NBA does it the opposite way. NBA teams go into the draft not knowing which players they might acquire or lose in free agency.

When trades are made during the NBA draft, they often cannot be made an official until the following month due to contractual and salary-cap issues. NFL teams don’t have to fuss with those technicalities. Commissioner Roger Goodell can announce those trades and call out the name of the team that has acquired the pick. As we’ve often seen, NBA prospects must don the cap of the team in that draft slot, even if it’s known through the grapevine they’ve been dealt to another organization.

An advantage of holding the NBA draft before free agency in a normal year is that teams can change their strategy in free agency after the draft unfolds. For example, if a lottery team gets a starter-quality point guard in the draft, it doesn’t have to spend its free agent dollars on that position. Holding the draft before free agency is also a boon to the summer leagues and allows teams more time to get their rookies prepared for their first season.

That brings us to our question of the day: Should the NBA holds its draft after free agency, as the NFL does? Or do you prefer to leave it the way it is?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Resuming The Season

Most NBA fans were eagerly awaiting this day. Prior to the hiatus caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the playoffs were supposed to begin on Saturday.

Play was halted a little over five weeks ago but it seems so much longer for basketball fans, who were looking forward to a postseason that promised to hold plenty of intrigue. The Western Conference had plenty of storylines — the Los Angeles rivalry, the Rockets’ superstar guards and small-ball approach, the up-and-comers like the Nuggets, Jazz, and Mavericks, hoping to make a statement of their own. The Eastern Conference had a clear favorite – the Bucks – but the Celtics, the defending champion Raptors, and the enigmatic Sixers had the potential to make things interesting and dash Milwaukee’s aspirations.

All of the possible plot changes have been put on hold. Unfortunately, the league is no closer to setting a date for resuming play than on the scary night when everything came to a stop. Commissioner Adam Silver told the media on Friday that there’s still no way to tell if and when the season can restart. A lot of hurdles must be cleared for teams to even begin training again.

It’s generally assumed that if games are played again this season, spectators will be prohibited. There’s also been widespread speculation that games would be conducted at a neutral site such as Las Vegas but Silver indicated that the league isn’t actively pursuing a “bubble city” plan.

Meanwhile, financial losses are piling up. “Revenues, in essence, have dropped to zero,”  Silver said.

That brings us to our question of the day: Do you believe the 2019/20 NBA season can salvaged? If so, how will the league be able to pull it off and still ensure the safety of all involved?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: NBA’s Best H-O-R-S-E Player

The NBA’s H-O-R-S-E competition will begin tomorrow, but not with the field that fans were probably hoping for when the project was first discussed.

The eight-person tournament will include just four current NBA players, Thunder guard Chris PaulHawks guard Trae Young, Bulls guard Zach LaVine and Jazz guard Mike Conley. The field will be rounded out by a pair of retired players, Chauncey Billups and Paul Pierce, along with three-time WNBA All-Star Allie Quigley and newly-elected Hall-of-Famer Tamika Catchings.

The talent pool is understandable given the restrictions imposed because of the coronavirus. All the participants will be shooting on their home courts, either indoors or outdoors. Many active players don’t have access to courts with training facilities being shut down, and fears of transmitting the virus make it impossible to bring the competitors together in one location.

Oddsmakers have installed Young and Paul as the favorites, according to Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman, who notes that Young has 2/1 odds to win the tournament, while Paul is 5/2. They are trailed by Conley (3/1), Pierce (4/1), LaVine (5/1), Billups (6/1), Quigley (8/1) and Catchings (10/1).

The competition will follow traditional rules of the popular playground game. A coin toss will determine who goes first, and each player must describe the shot before shooting. Dunking won’t be allowed.

The tournament will raise money for COVID-19 relief efforts and will provide the first glimpse of live basketball on television in more than a month. However, it won’t answer the question of who’s really the best H-O-R-S-E player in the NBA.

Once the league gets back to normal, we’d like to see an expanded version, maybe involving a representative from each of the league’s 30 teams. Imagine a tournament with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Damian Lillard and other stars competing under the same format.

We want to get your input. Who do you think has the best array of shots to win a league-wide H-O-R-S-E tournament? Please leave your answer in the space below.

Community Shootaround: DeMar DeRozan’s Future

The odds of the NBA finishing the full remainder of its 2019/20 regular season are essentially zero, which means the chances of the Spurs overcoming a four-game deficit in the standings and extending their playoff streak to 23 consecutive years are on life support as well. Even if the NBA is able to hold a postseason in 2020, San Antonio almost certainly won’t be a part of it, so the team may feel more pressure than usual to shake things up in the offseason.

One key storyline to watch after the season ends will be DeMar DeRozan‘s future. He holds a $27.7MM player option for the 2020/21 campaign, and with little league-wide cap room available, his best bet may be simply to pick it up. As John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote this week, the veteran guard would have a better shot at a big payday in the summer of 2021.

It’s not clear whether DeRozan is leaning in that direction though. A March 11 report from Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports suggested the Spurs’ leading scorer plans to opt out of his contract in the offseason if he and the team don’t agree to a contract extension. The timing of that report is important though — it surfaced mere hours before news of Rudy Gobert‘s positive coronavirus test broke and the NBA landscape was thrown into disarray.

Given all the revenue the NBA projects to lose as a result of its stoppage – and given how that lost revenue may impact the salary cap – it would make sense if DeRozan re-evaluates his position and decides that opting in and securing a $27.7MM guarantee is the right move for next season.

There are other factors in play here though. For one, we don’t know for sure how much DeRozan actually likes playing in San Antonio. During a March radio appearance on ESPN San Antonio (audio link), Jabari Young of CNBC – who previously covered the Spurs for the San Antonio Express-News and The Athletic – asserted that the 30-year-old wasn’t thrilled with his current situation.

“I don’t have to sugarcoat anything: DeMar DeRozan is not happy in San Antonio,” Young said, per Jeff Garcia of Spurs Zone. “The offense is not running as smoothly as one should think with a guy like him in the lineup. There are problems there. You have to decide if you’re going to take that money (and) come back to a situation that’s just not suitable.”

As Garcia observes, shortly after that ESPN San Antonio segment, DeRozan tweeted, “Who comes up with this s–t?” in an apparent reference to Young’s comments. Young followed up by publishing a long Twitter thread in which he highlighted his previous Spurs-related scoops and stood by his reporting.

Even if Young is right that DeRozan isn’t happy in San Antonio, the extent of that unhappiness is unclear — being frustrated with this season’s results and wanting out as soon as possible are two very different things. If DeRozan’s stance is closer to the former than the latter, he won’t be looking for an escape hatch at any cost in the offseason.

While DeRozan’s player option will give him a degree of power over whether or not he continues his career with the Spurs, the team could have a significant say too. San Antonio has typically been open to extensions for its veteran players in recent years and could go down a similar path with DeRozan, who is coming off one of the most efficient and productive offensive seasons of his career.

However, despite his impressive scoring and play-making, DeRozan remains a below-average defender. The Spurs’ 113.9 defensive rating with DeRozan on the court this season was noticeably worse than the team’s 106.7 mark when he sat. Overall, the Spurs had a negative net rating in DeRozan’s minutes and a positive rating while he was on the bench. Even if he opts in for 2020/21, perhaps San Antonio decides to make him available on the trade market in the hopes of retooling its roster and going a little younger.

What do you think? What does the future hold for DeRozan and the Spurs? Should either side be pursuing an extension? Will DeRozan pick up his player option for 2020/21? If he does, should San Antonio shop him? If he doesn’t, which teams could be fits in free agency?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Executive Of The Year

Unlike the other awards we’ve discussed in our Community Shootaround posts over the last week-and-a-half, the NBA’s Executive of the Year honor is voted on by team executives rather than media members. As such, it’s not generally grouped together with the league’s major awards like Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Most Valuable Player.

Still, now that we’re facing the possibility that the 2019/20 regular season may be over, it’s worth exploring which executives might be the top candidates for the award this year.

A team’s winning percentage is often a pretty good indicator of which general managers or presidents of basketball operations will receive Executive of the Year consideration. Five of the last six execs to win the award have overseen the team with the NBA’s best record, including last year’s winner: Jon Horst of the Bucks.

With Milwaukee once again holding the league’s best record in 2019/20, Horst is a candidate to become a repeat winner. However, his roster moves in the last year haven’t been particularly flashy — he mostly re-signed key free agents during the 2019 offseason, adding only role players like Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews.

Voters may be more swayed by a major move such as the acquisition of Anthony Davis, which could put Lakers head of basketball operations Rob Pelinka in the driver’s seat. Besides acquiring Davis, Pelinka filled out the roster with a series of budget signings, building a squad that now owns the top seed in the Western Conference. And he did all that in the wake of Magic Johnson‘s shocking departure from the front office last spring.

Los Angeles’ other team, the Clippers, made a pair of flashy acquisitions during 2019’s free agent period, landing both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and currently ranks second in the West. As such, president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank should receive Executive of the Year consideration.

Heat president Pat Riley deserves credit for landing Jimmy Butler without any cap space and for identifying under-the-radar gems like Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn. Thunder GM Sam Presti did a tremendous job putting together a playoff roster while trading away George, Russell Westbrook, and Jerami Grant and stockpiling future draft picks. Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge pivoted nicely from a dysfunctional group led by Kyrie Irving to a more cohesive squad with Kemba Walker at the point.

While those look to me like the top candidates, you could certainly make a case for a few others, especially if you consider how past years’ transactions have impacted this year’s rosters. For instance, the Mavericks‘ 2018 draft-day trade for Luka Doncic is the primary reason for the team’s breakthrough ’19/20 season. That’s a point in favor of Mavs GM Donn Nelson, even if you don’t weigh it as heavily as roster moves from the last 10-12 months. Raptors president Masai Ujiri is another exec who’d fall into this category.

I’d also probably give Grizzlies executive VP of basketball operations Zack Kleiman at least a cursory look for a series of impressive transactions, including trading away Mike Conley and trading up in the draft for Brandon Clarke. Memphis also secured a lightly-protected first-round pick in an Andre Iguodala salary dump before flipping Iguodala in a deal that netted the club Justise Winslow.

What do you think? Who would be your pick for Executive of the Year in 2020? Who are the other candidates you’d consider?

Head below to our comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Coach Of The Year

After discussing our hypothetical ballots for the NBA’s 2019/20 MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, and Sixth Man of the Year awards, we’re shifting our focus today to the Coach of the Year.

Raptors head coach Nick Nurse has emerged as a likely favorite for this award after losing NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and starting shooting guard Danny Green in the offseason. Without a superstar, Toronto was expected to come back down to earth following its surprise championship run in 2019. Instead, the Raptors put up a 46-18 record prior to the NBA’s hiatus, good for second in the East and third in the league.

Dan Devine of The Ringer, Zach Harper of The Athletic, and Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald all placed Nurse atop their hypothetical Coach of the Year ballots, pointing out that the Raptors’ head coach didn’t just overcome the loss of Leonard — he also had to deal with an injury-plagued roster all season long. Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, and Norman Powell each missed double-digit games in 2019/20, and Nurse just kept finding ways to plug the holes in the lineup and continue winning.

Of course, he didn’t win as much as Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer, the NBA’s reigning Coach of the Year, who made a strong case for the award again this season. No team had a better record than Milwaukee’s 53-12 mark, and while the Bucks almost certainly weren’t going to win 70 games, they likely would’ve gotten pretty close.

The Bucks’ average margin of victory in 2019/20 was one of the best in NBA history, and it’s not as if their roster is jam-packed with stars. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the MVP frontrunner and Khris Middleton is an All-Star, but most of the rest of the club’s contributors are role players. Budenholzer, – who was the runner-up behind Nurse for Devine, Harper, and Murphy – had the group looking like a juggernaut.

Beyond Nurse and Budenholzer, there’s no shortage of impressive Coach of the Year candidates. Devine’s third-place pick was Taylor Jenkins, a first-year head coach who took a Grizzlies team viewed as one of the league’s bottom-feeders and steered it to a playoff spot in the West.

Harper, meanwhile, gave his No. 3 spot to Lakers head coach Frank Vogel, who was considered L.A.’s Plan C when he was hired last spring. Vogel’s team had a 49-14 record when the NBA suspended play, holding a commanding 5.5-game lead for the top seed in the Western Conference. Even the most enthusiastic Lakers supporters would have had a hard time envisioning a better-case scenario last fall.

Murphy’s runners-up were Billy Donovan (Thunder) and Erik Spoelstra (Heat). Expectations for both teams – particularly Oklahoma City – were modest entering the season, but they’ve exceeded them, comfortably claiming postseason spots in their respective conferences.

While the coaches mentioned above are probably the strongest candidates for award-season recognition in 2020, you could make a case for several others, including Brad Stevens (Celtics), Michael Malone (Nuggets), Rick Carlisle (Mavericks), Nate McMillan (Pacers), Scott Brooks (Wizards), and James Borrego (Hornets).

We want to know what you think. Who is the 2019/20 NBA Coach of the Year? And who would you put on your three-man ballot?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your picks!o

Community Shootaround: Hypothetical Sixth Man Ballot

Last week, we discussed hypothetical 2019/20 ballots for the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Most Improved Player awards. We’re finishing up our look at the NBA’s major awards this week, starting with Sixth Man of the Year.

Any discussion for this award generally has to start with Clippers guard Lou Williams, who has been named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year twice in a row and three times in the last five years. In 2019/20, the 33-year-old was once again one of the league’s leading scorers off the bench, with 18.7 PPG and a career-high 5.7 APG.

However, with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the picture, Williams wasn’t leaned on quite as heavily this season, and his .416 FG% was his lowest mark since 2015/16. Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald still had Williams atop his hypothetical Sixth Man of the Year ballot, but neither Dan Devine of The Ringer nor Zach Harper of The Athletic even had him in the top three.

Devine’s Sixth Man pick was one of Williams’ teammates: Montrezl Harrell. As Devine points out, a handful of advanced stats favor Harrell, who led all reserves in value over replacement player and total win shares in 2019/20. The big man’s traditional stats, including 18.6 PPG and 7.1 RPG, were pretty impressive too, earning him a runner-up spot on Harper’s and Murphy’s ballots.

Harper, however, went in another direction with his choice, opting for Thunder guard Dennis Schroder. Chris Paul‘s return to All-Star status and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s breakout sophomore season may have earned more headlines, but Schroder played a major role this year in Oklahoma City’s unexpected success. His 19.0 PPG ranked first among reserves, and he has scored those points efficiently (.468/.381/.839) while chipping in 4.1 APG and 3.7 RPG as well.

Heat guard Goran Dragic, who accepted a backup role and enjoyed a nice bounceback season, with 16.1 PPG and 5.1 APG, earned the third spot on Harper’s and Murphy’s ballots. Bucks guards George Hill and Donte DiVincenzo, who provided key depth for the NBA’s best team, tied for third place on Devine’s list. Pistons point guard Derrick Rose (18.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) earned an honorable mention from Harper.

Wizards sharpshooter Davis Bertans, Jazz sparkplug Jordan Clarkson, Kings wing Bogdan Bogdanovic, and big men like Dwight Howard (Lakers) and Christian Wood (Pistons) are some of the other players who deserve consideration, though Bogdanovic and Wood were among those who had become starters by the time the season was suspended.

What do you think? Who is your pick for Sixth Man of the Year in 2019/20 (assuming the regular season is over or close to it)? How would you fill out your top three if you had a ballot?

Head below to the comment section to share your thoughts!