Community Shootaround

NBA teams aren’t necessarily done reshaping their rosters for 2018/19 quite yet, but nearly all of this summer’s impact free agents are off the board. And unlike last year, when Kyrie Irving was traded in late August and Carmelo Anthony was moved in September, the majority of this year’s biggest-name trade candidates have already been dealt or seem unlikely to go anywhere at this point.

With the major offseason roster moves out of the way, we can start evaluating what the NBA playoff picture might look like next season. We’ll kick off that discussion today by examining the Western Conference, where it took 47 wins to claim a postseason berth this past spring.

The competition in the West figures to be no less fierce in 2018/19. With the possible exception of the Rockets, who lost Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, and the Pelicans, who lost DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo, none of the eight Western Conference teams from last year look any worse.

The Warriors are bringing back all their key pieces and added Cousins; the Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, and Jazz look almost the same as they did last year, with all their top players still under contract; the Thunder brought back all their most important free agents while adding a couple complementary pieces in Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel; and the Spurs replaced a star who appeared in just nine games last season with another All-Star in DeMar DeRozan.

There aren’t many clear candidates to fall out of the top eight in the West, and there are plenty of teams in the bottom seven who improved their rosters and have postseason aspirations. The Lakers‘ addition of LeBron James was the most obvious and noteworthy free agent move made by a Western lottery team, but it was hardly the only one.

The Nuggets re-signed Nikola Jokic and Will Barton while adding Isaiah Thomas, and will have a healthy Paul Millsap this year as they look to improve upon a 46-win season. The Clippers, who finished above .500, are deeper and arguably more talented than they were last season. The Mavericks made a pair of very intriguing additions in DeAndre Jordan and Luka Doncic. The Grizzlies should have Mike Conley at full health to go along with Marc Gasol and newcomers like Kyle Anderson, Jaren Jackson, and Garrett Temple.

We’ve mentioned 13 of the 15 Western Conference teams, with only the Suns and Kings perhaps not viewed as viable playoff threats. Even those clubs have plenty of promising young talent and could theoretically improve upon last season’s results — particularly the Suns, who added Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Trevor Ariza.

What do you think? Are there any playoff locks in the West besides the Warriors and Rockets? Which of last year’s teams will fall out of the top eight? Which Western lottery teams are on track to reach the postseason next spring?

Jump into the comment section below to share your two cents and your Western Conference top eight.

Carmelo Anthony‘s path to the Rockets now seems clear after an agreement was reached this week on a three-team trade that will send him to the Hawks, who will buy him out. Once that process plays out and Anthony clears waivers, he will be free to sign with anybody, but it’s a poorly kept secret that he plans to head to Houston.

There’s a lot to be figured out about what Anthony’s role will be with the Rockets, but he didn’t exactly excel as a third option in Oklahoma City. His playing time dropped to a career-low 32.1 minutes per game last season and his scoring average fell bellow 20 PPG for the first time since he entered the NBA in 2003.

After winning 65 games and reaching the Western Conference finals, Houston suffered a couple of key personnel losses. Trevor Ariza signed with the Suns on the first night of free agency, and Luc Mbah a Moute left for the Clippers soon afterward. That’s a loss of two defensive specialists who match up very well with the Warriors, while Anthony represents a question mark on both counts.

There have been whispers that the Rockets may be considering a sixth-man spot for Anthony, with defensive-minded free agent addition James Ennis taking Ariza’s spot in the starting lineup. Chris Paul, one of Anthony’s close friends, may be able to sell him on the idea, but his response when asked about a similar role with the Thunder isn’t encouraging.

“I’m not sacrificing no bench role,” he told ESPN’s Royce Young in April. “So that’s out of the question.” (Twitter link).

Anthony brings extra firepower to a Rockets offense that is already loaded. As several observers have noted, he is most effective when playing with elite passers — as he has done on the Olympic team — and he’ll have those in Houston with Paul and James Harden. However, the move from Ariza to Anthony won’t be a seamless switch. They are very different types of players, and many writers are predicting a greater gap between the Warriors and Rockets with Anthony on board.

We want to get your prediction. Will a move to Houston bring out the best in Anthony’s game, or will he be a distraction on offense and a liability on defense? Please leave your answers in the space below.

Whether Jabari Parker becomes a star or a bust, he’s not going to do it in Milwaukee. The 23-year-old forward, who seemed like a vital part of the Bucks’ future when they made him the second player taken in the 2014 draft, is headed to their division rivals in Chicago.

Two ACL injuries prevented Parker from reaching his full potential in Milwaukee. The first came during his rookie season and limited him to 25 games. The second, in January of 2017, cost him a significant part of two seasons. Parker was showing signs of stardom before that injury struck, posting a 20.1/6.2/2.8 line through 51 games.

Despite his medical history, the Bulls were willing to gamble on Parker’s talent, giving him $40MM over two years to make a fresh start in Chicago. The organization limited its risk by guaranteeing only the first season, with a team option on the second.

If Parker’s health holds up, it could be a major win for the maligned front office duo of John Paxson and Gar Forman. Parker would be a valuable piece alongside Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn and Wendell Carter Jr., giving the Bulls one of the best collections of young talent in the East.

Chicago has only been out of the playoffs for one year, but Paxson and owner Jerry Reinsdorf quickly grew frustrated with the rebuilding process, according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. They wanted a shortcut to become a contender again, and Parker may able to provide that.

We want to get your predictions on the move. Will Parker be able to revive his career in Chicago and turn the Bulls into a winner again, or is this a reckless gamble on a player whose knees will always be a concern? Please leave your responses in the space below.

NBA restricted free agency can be a double-edged sword — this summer, for instance, it has been beneficial for players like Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine, and Dante Exum, who have each signed player-friendly deals that don’t look much different than contracts they might have earned as unrestricted free agents.

For other players though, the lack of leverage in restricted free agency creates tough decisions. Those players may have to choose between settling for a multi-year offer lower than what they believe they’re worth, or signing their one-year qualifying offer in the hopes of securing a better offer as an unrestricted free agent in 2019.

Clint Capela (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Celtics), Jabari Parker (Bucks), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the big-name restricted free agents still on the board, with Montrezl Harrell (Clippers), Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks), David Nwaba (Bulls), and Patrick McCaw (Warriors) also still unsigned.

There’s a sense that if any one of those players signed an offer sheet within reason, his current team would match it. But those clubs may not be eager to negotiate directly and risk bidding against themselves — they’d rather let the market set the price for those restricted free agents. But with only a small handful of teams still able to offer more than the mid-level exception to free agents, the market simply hasn’t developed for some of these players.

While things may look bleak for a few restricted free agents on July 12, we expect all of them to be back under contract by October 12. So we want to know how you think some of these contract situations will be resolved.

Will the Rockets, Celtics, Bucks, or Cavaliers negotiate long-term deals with their restricted free agents? Will any of the teams with substantial cap room – the Hawks, Kings, Bulls, and Nets – make a play for one of the available RFAs?

Will anyone sign his qualifying offer with an eye toward unrestricted free agency in 2019? Do you foresee any major negotiating missteps for any of this year’s RFAs, like Nerlens Noel turning down a $70MM offer in 2017?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh on 2018’s remaining RFAs!

The first day of free agency is almost complete and several big names are already off the market.

Paul George will stay in Oklahoma City for the next four years, bringing approximately $137MM. DeAndre Jordan will make roughly the same ($24MM) in Dallas this season as he would have had he opted in with the Clippers. Chris Paul remains in Houston on a four-year, $160MM deal and Kevin Durant will stay in Golden State for at least one more year, as he signed a two-year, $61.5MM deal that will allow him to hit the open market again next summer.

Outside of the top players, many rotational players got paid on mid-sized deals. Ed Davis landed a one-year, $4.4MM deal with the Nets. The Spurs retain Rudy Gay on a one-year, $10MM pact and bring back old friend Marco Belinelli on a two-year, $12MM deal. Trevor Ariza cashes in with the Suns on a one-year, $15MM deal and Joe Harris will stay with the Nets, earning $16MM over the next two seasons.

Tonight’s community shootaround is all about which team made the best deal. The Warriors re-signing Durant is arguably the most important deal of the group and the Thunder retaining George has to be seen as one of the greatest accomplishments during GM Sam Presti’s reign. Aside from those two deals, which contract has the most value?

The Raptors re-signing Fred VanVleet stands out as another coup in a long list of positives during GM Masai Ujiri’s tenure. At $9MM per season, he’ll provide excellent value off the bench and he’s more than capable of starting for Toronto should the club deal Kyle Lowry (no one on the roster is untouchable in trades, per reports).

Which team do you think negotiated the best deal? Do you agree that VanVleet’s contract holds the most value outside of Durant’s and George’s or do you believe another deal is more team-friendly? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

Speculation continues to grow that the Lakers will land the biggest prize of the summer in LeBron James, but the other pieces they were hoping for appear less certain.

Lakers fans watched in anticipation today as LeBron took a flight from his vacation spot of Anguilla to Van Nuys Airport in Los Angeles. It could be a clue or it could just mean that James and his family were returning to their summer home.

Halfway across the country, Thunder fans are finding hope in a “summer hype house party” hosted tonight by OKC star Russell Westbrook. Teammate Paul George is on the guest list for the bash, which would serve as an ideal location if he wants to announce that he’s staying in Oklahoma City. Guests are required to sign a non-disclosure agreement, which adds to the anticipation that major news is on the way.

George is one Los Angeles native the Lakers were hoping to add to their mix. The other is Kawhi Leonard, who has requested a trade out of San Antonio. However, the Spurs are seeking a “clean out the cupboard” type deal, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, and the Lakers have been unwilling to meet their price. He adds that L.A. views Leonard as a “distressed asset” who is almost certain to leave San Antonio next summer, so the Lakers’ front office is unwilling to give the Spurs what they want. The Celtics and Sixers are also in on the bidding for Leonard and both might be willing to make better offers.

With the start of free agency less than 30 minutes away, we want to get your predictions. James, George and Leonard — how many of them will be Lakers when the season starts in October? Please leave your responses in the space below.

Thursday’s NBA draft lasted until almost midnight on the East Coast, but viewers who tuned out after the first hour probably got to see next season’s Rookie of the Year.

Apart from Malcolm Brogdon (taken at No. 36 in in 2016) and Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11 in 2013), every Rookie of the Year since 2004 has been a top-six pick. Donovan Mitchell could add his name to the list of exceptions, but Ben Simmons appears to be the favorite to collect the award on Monday.

This year’s first six picks could all emerge as strong candidates, as each figures to have a chance to contribute right away. Let’s take a closer look at the field:

1. Deandre Ayton — The Suns have been searching for help in the middle for several years, and Ayton looks like a legitimate NBA center. He is the early ROY favorite, according to the Bovada Sportsbook, which gives him 13-5 odds.
2. Marvin Bagley III — Whether Bagley becomes a power forward or small forward, he should provide much-needed scoring punch for the Kings’ front line. He was a dynamic scorer and rebounder at Duke, where he averaged a double-double during his lone season.
3. Luka Doncic — The Mavericks believed in the teenage Euroleague MVP enough to trade up to snag him with the third pick. Some scouts question how easily Doncic’s skill set will translate to the NBA, but he will get ample playing time in Dallas to prove himself.
4. Jaren Jackson Jr. — The shot-blocking specialist out of Michigan State will help anchor the Grizzlies’ defense alongside Marc Gasol. He also gives Memphis a strong rebounding presence at the four spot that has been lacking since Zach Randolph left.
5. Trae Young — There should be plenty of excitement in Atlanta next season as Young takes control of the Hawks’ offense. His numbers declined during the second half of his freshman season at Oklahoma, but his limitless shooting range makes him a perfect fit in the modern NBA.
6. Mohamed Bamba — He may not start right away with Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo on the roster, but Bamba should earn significant playing time because of his tremendous shot-blocking abilities. If he improves on offense, he could be the first-string center by the end of the season.

Those are the top candidates, but there could be plenty more, as Mitchell, Brogdon and Carter-Williams have shown. We want to get your picks, so please leave your choice in the comments box below.

From all appearances, the Suns will take Arizona center Deandre Ayton with the top pick on Thursday. However, there’s quite a bit of intrigue in terms of what the Kings will do at No. 2.

For months, Euro guard Luka Doncic was considered the likely selection at that spot. His stock has seemingly fallen this month, as Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports reported Monday that Doncic could still be on the board at No. 4.

The Kings could use help in a lot of areas, of course, and they’re not chock full of dynamic playmakers. They were tied for 24th in the league in assists per game last season. But they are apparently committed to last year’s lottery pick, De’Aaron Fox, as their main ballhandler.

Instead, they’re in the market for big man who can stretch the defense. Duke’s Marvin Bagley III has emerged as the leading candidate to fill that need. He’s a near-lock to be their selection, according to the Dallas Morning News’ Eddie Sefko (Twitter link).

The 6’11” Bagley put up big numbers in his lone college season, averaging 21.0 PPG and 11.1 RPG. He didn’t take a lot of threes but he knocked down 39.7% of the ones he attempted.

Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson, who reportedly had a very impressive workout for the Suns, is another enticing prospect. Texas center Mohamed Bamba has zoomed up many draft boards and is currently ranked No. 3 overall by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony. Michael Porter Jr., despite his health risks, could be the wildcard in the equation.

It’s no lock the Kings will even hold onto the pick. GM Vlade Divac is reportedly willing to deal the pick in order to acquire additional assets. When Kawhi Leonard made public last week his desire to be dealt from the Spurs, the Kings made the list of potential landings spots. They are reportedly willing to give up the pick as part of a package to land the star forward.

This brings us to our question of the day: Assuming the Suns draft Ayton with the top pick, which player should the Kings select at No. 2? Or should the Kings deal the pick for additional draft choices and/or players?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to what you have to say.

“He made strides as a playmaker in his sophomore season and operating out of the pick and roll … However, he still plays too fast at times, not always reading the defense and making the simple play … He also lacks the ideal height and court vision to see over the top of the defense, especially with bigger opponents guarding him … He has a tendency to settle for tough, contested two-point jumpers, partially due to his inability to consistently get all the way to the rim, and also because of his average decision making skills … While he can make some of these attempts, it will not be a reliable way to score at the next level, and it will decrease his overall offensive efficiency, as it has in college.”

From NBAdraft.net, that was part of last year’s scouting report on Donovan Mitchell. Those concerns led to him being passed over by 12 teams and then traded by the one that did select him. Mitchell was viewed as an undersized player for his position who needed to land in the right situation to be successful.

He blew away expectations, of course, providing the Jazz with the go-to scorer they needed after the loss of free agent Gordon Hayward. Mitchell became a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award and reminded us that the draft remains hard to predict, no matter how closely the prospects are studied.

It’s easy to criticize the teams that didn’t see Mitchell as a future star. It’s much harder to pick out a similar surprise from this year’s crop. The first 10 selections in the latest mock draft by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony are Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson Jr., Luka Doncic, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Michael Porter Jr., Trae Young, Kevin Knox and Mikal Bridges. The next version of Mitchell might be somewhere outside that group. Here are a few candidates:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — The late-blooming Kentucky star has exceptional size for a point guard, standing 6’6″ with a nearly 7-foot wing span. He is an aggressive defender who can guard several positions, and scouts are confident that his offense will improve as he ages.
• Lonnie Walker — Miami’s shooting guard is blessed with considerable athletic ability and a nice shooting stroke that should transfer well into the NBA. He was impressive at the combine both on and off the court, as teams took notice of how he smoothly conducted himself with the media.
• Collin Sexton — For all the attention that went to Young, Alabama’s Sexton may have been the best pure point guard in college basketball. He displayed a combination of strength, speed and agility and seemed to raise his game in big moments.
• Zhaire Smith — Athleticism stands out for the Texas Tech freshman, who proved to be a dangerous scorer from all over the court and is particularly adept at drawing fouls. He also made strides on defense and as a rebounder and could develop into an all-around player.
• Miles Bridges — An A-plus athlete who can match up with guards and forwards, Bridges might have been a certain lottery pick if he had left Michigan State last year. He has a smooth jumper and can get easy points on cuts to the basket, but scouts are most impressed by his athleticism and competitive drive.

Of course, there are a lot more candidates, and we want to get your input. Which player projected to be drafted outside the top 10 has the best chance to turn into a star? Please leave your feedback in the comments section below.