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2021/22 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

September 27th, 2021 at 11:23am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021/22 NBA regular season will get underway in just over three weeks, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2020/21, our voters went 17-13 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’21/22?

As a reminder, the NBA played a 72-game schedule in 2020/21, so a team that won 41 games last year finished with a 41-31 record. This year, a club that wins 41 games would be a .500 team (41-41). For added clarity, we’ve noted the record that each team would have to achieve to finish “over” its projected win total.

We’ll turn today to the Southeast division…

Dallas Mavericks

Memphis Grizzlies

New Orleans Pelicans

San Antonio Spurs

Houston Rockets

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Brooklyn Nets (55.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (51.5 wins): Under (70.0%)
  • Boston Celtics (46.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
  • New York Knicks (42.5 wins): Over (65.1%)
  • Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Under (50.6%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (42.5 wins): Under (58.2%)
  • Chicago Bulls (42.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (26.5 wins): Under (50.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (25.5 wins): Under (52.6%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (48.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (47.5 wins): Over (62.2%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (38.5 wins): Over (54.5%)
  • Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
  • Orlando Magic (22.5 wins): Under (53.8%)

Northwest:

  • Utah Jazz (52.5 wins): Over (61.7%)
  • Denver Nuggets (48.5 wins): Over (69.3%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (44.5 wins): Over (53.0%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (34.5 wins): Under (57.1%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5 wins): Under (65.0%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (52.5 wins): Over (58.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (51.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (43.5 wins): Over (51.2%)
  • Sacramento Kings (36.5 wins): Under (66.0%)
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Previewing Mavericks' Training Camp

September 26th, 2021 at 8:40pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Dwain Price of Mavs.com previews the Mavericks‘ training camp, which is set to start on Tuesday. Led by Luka Doncic, Dallas is viewed by league observers as quietly one of the most dangerous teams entering the season. “I think we’re going to be a team that’s going to play hard, that’s going to be unselfish, and I think everyone will be accountable and I think it’ll be fun,” head coach Jason Kidd said. “That’s a Jason Kidd-coached team is a team that’s going to be accountable, will have fun out there and will play hard and be unselfish.”
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Haralabos Voulgaris No Longer With Mavericks

September 23rd, 2021 at 11:14am CST by Luke Adams

The Mavericks have parted ways with Haralabos Voulgaris, a well-known sports gambler who was hired by the team in 2018 as the director of quantitative research and development, reports Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.

As Townsend explains, Voulgaris wasn’t fired by the Mavs. His contract expired at the end of the 2020/21 season and the club simply opted not to re-sign him to a new one.

Although Voulgaris was never Dallas’ head of basketball operations, his departure from the organization is worth highlighting, since he had reportedly gained an outsized influence in the front office in recent years.

A report in June stated that Voulgaris had either initiated or approved nearly all of the Mavs’ roster moves for the last two seasons and suggested that his influence was virtually on par with that of president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson. While Mavericks owner Mark Cuban disputed The Athletic’s portrayal of how much power Voulgaris had, the executive’s abrasive personality was reportedly a source of some tension in the front office and he was said to have a “strained” relationship with star guard Luka Doncic.

Now, three months after that report was published, neither Nelson nor Voulgaris are part of Dallas’ front office, which was overhauled this offseason. Nico Harrison is the team’s new general manager and president of basketball operations.

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Contract Details For Ntilikina; Harper Gives B-Minus Grade For Mavs' Offseason

September 21st, 2021 at 3:01pm CST by Rory Maher
  • In the same tweet, Marks states that the first year of Frank Ntilikina‘s contract with the Mavericks will be guaranteed.
  • The Mavericks have a similar group as last season’s squad, essentially replacing wings Josh Richardson and the recently retired J.J. Redick with free agent acquisitions Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown. Zach Harper of The Athletic gave the team a B-minus for its offseason moves. He states that the team’s main improvement will have to come from internal development if it wants to climb the standings in the West.
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Ntilikina's Contract To Include Team Option

September 17th, 2021 at 6:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • The two-year contract that guard Frank Ntilikina has signed with the Mavericks includes a team option in the second season, Marc Stein of Substack tweets. It’s still unclear whether the former Knick received a full guarantee for the upcoming season.
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Mavericks Sign Frank Ntilikina

September 16th, 2021 at 8:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Ex-Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina has signed with the Mavericks, the team’s PR department tweets.

A report surfaced on Tuesday that Dallas was expected to ink the point guard and now it’s official. The Mavs have a full 20-man training camp roster.

It’s believed to be a minimum contract, according to Marc Stein of Substack. The Mavericks already have 14 other players on guaranteed deals, plus Moses Brown on a partially guaranteed contract.

During the 2020/21 season, Ntilikina earned $6.2MM in the fourth year of his rookie deal.

The 6’4″ guard, still just 23, suited up for 33 games with the Knicks last year under head coach Tom Thibodeau. He averaged just 2.7 PPG and 0.9 RPG across 9.8 MPG.

The defensive specialist, who is shooting 36.6% from the field for his career, averaged 6.3 PPG and 3.0 APG in 20.8 MPG during the 2019/20 season.

Dallas already has Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke as rotation options behind Luka Doncic, so Ntilikina doesn’t project to play much even if he’s on the 15-man roster this season.

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Mavericks Expected To Sign Frank Ntilikina

September 14th, 2021 at 9:41pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

It is anticipated that the Mavericks will add defensive-oriented former Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina within the next few days, league sources inform Marc Stein of Substack (Twitter link).

Stein notes that Dallas had been eyeing Ntilikina even in the 2017 NBA draft lottery, but after the Knicks selected him with the eighth pick, the Mavericks pivoted to Dennis Smith Jr. with the No. 9 selection. Smith, who himself was eventually sent to the Knicks in 2019, recently signed a training camp deal with the Trail Blazers.

During the 2020/21 season, Ntilikina earned $6.2MM in the fourth year of his rookie deal. This year, his deal will most likely be either a non-guaranteed deal or a veteran’s minimum. The Mavericks currently have 14 players on guaranteed deals, with one player – Moses Brown – signed to a non-guaranteed contract and both of their two-way contract spots occupied.

The 6’4″ reserve guard, still just 23, suited up for 33 games with the Knicks last year under head coach Tom Thibodeau. He averaged just 2.7 PPG and 0.9 RPG across 9.8 MPG. A talented defensive player, Ntilikina has yet to develop on the other end of the hardwood. He holds career averages of 5.5 PPG, 2.7 APG and 2.0 RPG.

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Southwest Notes: Doncic, Kidd, Forbes, Celtics, Grizzlies

September 5th, 2021 at 6:31pm CST by JD Shaw

Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic recently praised new head coach Jason Kidd, calling the chance to play for the 12-time All-Star an “excellent opportunity,” as relayed by BasketNews.com.

“I think he’s an excellent coach who also knows a lot about how to play basketball and how to lead a team,” Doncic said. “It is an excellent opportunity for me to grow and I think it will help me a lot.”

The 22-year-old Doncic is coming off yet another impressive season, averaging 27.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. Doncic also expressed confidence that the Mavericks, led by the likes of himself, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr., have an opportunity to compete for a championship in 2021/22.

“As I say, that is my goal and I believe that you can always fight,” he explained. “We’ll see how the season goes, but in my opinion we can be there, fighting for everything. I do not know if we need one or two players. We first have to start playing and then we will see what happens.”

There’s more out of the Southwest Division tonight:

  • Spurs guard Bryn Forbes has hired Octagon for his new representation, the agency announced on social media (Twitter link). Forbes signed with San Antonio last month after spending the 2020/21 season with the NBA champion Bucks. Prior to joining Milwaukee, the 28-year-old sharpshooter played his first four seasons with San Antonio, appearing in 261 games. He was previously represented by Excel Sports Management.
  • Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (Insider link) rates the Celtics–Grizzlies trade featuring Kris Dunn, Carsen Edwards and Juan Hernangomez, giving Boston a grade of B and Memphis a C. As we previously relayed, Boston is set to trade Dunn, Edwards and a 2026 second-round pick swap to Memphis in exchange for Hernangomez.
  • In case you missed it, the Spurs decided to waive 25-year-old forward Chandler Hutchison this weekend. San Antonio acquired Hutchison as part of a five-team August trade. He appeared in 25 contests with the Bulls and Wizards last season, averaging 5.7 points and 18.2 minutes per contest.
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Brown Working Closely With Chandler

September 4th, 2021 at 11:26am CST by Dana Gauruder
  • Moses Brown is working closely with longtime NBA center Tyson Chandler to improve his game, Dwain Price of Mavs.com writes. Brown was traded twice this offseason and was forwarded by Boston to the Mavericks in the Josh Richardson deal. “He’s been helping Moses a little bit in the gym just to kind of help him get a feel for things,” Al Whitley, GM of the G League Texas Legends, said of Chandler. “So to have a guy like Tyson Chandler as a mentor – someone who is a championship player, who brings what Tyson brought to the court, his intensity, toughness, all those types of things – that’s now being shared with Moses.”
  • Moses Brown is working closely with longtime NBA center Tyson Chandler to improve his game, Dwain Price of Mavs.com writes. Brown was traded twice this offseason and was forwarded by Boston to the Mavericks in the Josh Richardson deal. “He’s been helping Moses a little bit in the gym just to kind of help him get a feel for things,” Al Whitley, GM of the G League Texas Legends, said of Chandler. “So to have a guy like Tyson Chandler as a mentor – someone who is a championship player, who brings what Tyson brought to the court, his intensity, toughness, all those types of things – that’s now being shared with Moses.”
  • Free agents Lance Stephenson and Isaiah Thomas left positive impressions during the workouts with the Mavericks, Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated tweets. Dallas is seeking more backcourt depth and both veterans guards are looking to revive their NBA careers.
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Atlantic Notes: Dragic, Christian, Hernangomez, Jordan

September 3rd, 2021 at 5:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Raptors and Goran Dragic have not engaged in buyout talks, according to ESPN’s Jordan Schultz (Twitter link), who says a report stating the point guard is on track to sign with the Mavericks is inaccurate. Dragic, who was acquired in the sign-and-trade with Miami that sent Kyle Lowry to the Heat, still has trade value, which gives Toronto less incentive to explore a possible buyout.

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

  • The Celtics have hired Jarell Christian as the head coach of their G League affiliate in Maine, according to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto. Clevis Murray was the first to report that Christian was expected to fill that position (Twitter link). Christian, 35, has been in the Wizards’ organization since 2019. He spent one season as head coach of the Capital City Go-Go, Washington’s NBA G League affiliate, before becoming an assistant coach last season.
  • The pending acquisition of Juan Hernangomez by the Celtics from the Grizzlies is a low-risk move, Jay King of The Athletic writes. Boston gave up two guards who probably wouldn’t have been in the rotation and the pick swap wasn’t a huge sweetener, King continues. Hernangomez could help them space the floor with his perimeter shooting and if he doesn’t pan out, his 2022/23 salary of $7.4MM can be cast off, since it’s not guaranteed.
  • By trading DeAndre Jordan rather than waiving him and using the stretch provision over five years, the Nets made a wise financial move, as Bobby Marks of ESPN’s explains (Twitter link). The agreed-upon trade with the Pistons allows Brooklyn to avoid have dead money on the cap, which is essential for a luxury tax team. They also shed his salary over the next two seasons and acquired players on smaller contracts, which will reduce their tax liability in the short run.
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